Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots have to figure things out quick if they plan on making another Super Bowl run, but it's not Tom Brady's fault.
2017 NFL SEASON
Week 5:
#NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
Week 4 results: 8-8
wins (season: 34-29; .540); 10-6 v. spread (season: 30-33; .476)
New
England Patriots 2-2 (-5.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-1 (55): Patriots 27-21
Thursday, 8:25 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay,
FL (Weather: 60% rain; low 70s)
Reasons: The
Patriots come into Thursday night's game against the Buccaneers statistically
the worst defense in the NFL,
ranking last in both yards and points allowed, a first in the Bill Belichick
era. What's even worse for perhaps the greatest defensive coaching mind in the
game's history is the 2017 New England defense is on pace to be the worst in
NFL history. It doesn't get any
easier on the road against a Tampa Bay offense that ranks in the top half of
the NFL in yards (9th) and in points scored (12th), especially with LB Dont'a Hightower and CB Stephon Gilmore
questionable, although Gilmore's absence could be a blessing in disguise. Tampa
Bay's defense is struggling with attrition as well, and it couldn't have come
at a worse time as they face a New England offense that ranks 1st in yards and
2nd in points scored. Also helping the Patriots stay afloat is their 3rd-down
efficiency (7th), yards per plays (4th), and most notably, their turnover
ratio (+4, 6th), all aspects of the
game the Buccaneers largely struggle with. The weather could be a huge factor
on a field already at its water holding capacity, so the team with the better
defense and ground game should win out. The Patriots defense isn't this bad, is it?
Sunday,
1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: 50% rain; high 70s)
Reasons:
One of these teams is finishing this game 0-5, which is astounding
considering the amount of talent on both
sides of the ball on both teams. Both
the Giants and Chargers are relatively
even statistically, which is to say they’re near the bottom quarter to half of
the league in every worthy metric. The only place where the Chargers stand
out is yards per play (9th),
which stands to reason considering they have Phillip Rivers (1107 passing yards) throwing it to
Keenan Allen (13.9 ypc) or handing it
off to Melvin Gordon (4.0 yards per touch).
The Giants come into the game banged up (Questionable: Jason
Pierre-Paul, Olivier Vernon, Avery Moss), but I can’t
imagine New York going 0-5 in their own stadium, especially against a pass-heavy offense
in the rain.
Buffalo Bills 3-1 (+3) @ Cincinnati Bengals 1-3 (39.5): Bengals 21-20
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: 50% rain; low 70s)
Reasons:
The Bills are the top scoring defense in the NFL, and don’t allow many yards (8th), but here’s the kicker:
The Bengals are 3rd and 3rd in those categories,
respectively, and will be mudding at home with a underachieving offense that
has improved every week of the season. This
is another early game affected by weather featuring two strong defenses and
ground games. Expect a defensive battle.
New York Jets 2-2 (+1) @ Cleveland Browns 0-4 (39.5): Jets 24-20
Sunday,
1:00 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Sunny; mid 70s)
Reasons:
The Jets have been the surprise of 2017
for most NFL fans outside of New England, but nothing is surprising about
the Browns 0-4 start. The Browns remain one of the worst statistical teams in
the league for the 256th week in a row, but the Jets are
surprisingly mediocre. Look for that mediocrity to best the Browns Sunday, as
the Jets have faced a tougher schedule so far in 2017 and are simply the better
team.
I made the mistake of prematurely ordaining the Jets as the most embarrassing team to be a fan of, failing to realize that burden might always belong to Browns fans.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather:
50% rain; mid 70s)
Reasons:
Statistically these teams are evenly
matched, which makes the 8-point spread hard to figure. Both teams chew up
clock (TOP: JAX, 6th; PIT 11th),
don’t turn the ball over (JAX: 2nd;
PIT: 7th), and don’t allow yards (JAX: 11th; PIT: 2nd) or points (JAX: 6th; PIT: 2nd).
Yet here we are, the Steelers favored by more than a touchdown at home against
an offense that scores over 27 ppg (6th).
Pittsburgh is healthy and the weather looks to be issue; perhaps therein lies
the answer.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather:
Hot, humid; high 80s)
Reasons:
The Dolphins are absolutely awful, save their 8th-ranked scoring defense,
but they are home for the first time since 2016 after being displaced by
Hurricane Irma and then traveling to Los Angeles to New York to London. Add
this homecoming to the fact Marcus
Mariota won’t be 100%, if he plays at all, and the Titans 9th-ranked
scoring offense has a much smaller chance of winning.
San Francisco 49ers 0-4 (+1.5) @ Indianapolis Colts 1-3
(44.5):
49ers 24-21
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Luca Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons:
Consider: This game is one of three early afternoon games that
feature teams with two or fewer combined
wins. That’s atrocious, but at least it’s not the game that features two
winless teams, right? Wrong. These teams
are actually hard to watch in addition to being statistically terrible. Spare
me each team's overtime losses (v. the
equally terrible Arizona Cardinals) or the Colts lone win (v. the Cleveland Browns). This narrowly
wins “Worst Game of the Week”.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: 50% rain; high 70s)
Reasons:
Every time the Eagles have reached a
level where they should be feared I feel like they lay an egg. I put enough
time into researching this article every week, so I didn’t have time to verify my
assertions, but my gut feeling says I’m right. So should we expect the Eagles
to drop the game to the lowly Cardinals at home Sunday afternoon? No, because
Arizona is the worst 2-2 team in the NFL. The
Cardinals are good at holding the ball (8th
in TOP), which helps explains why they gain so many yards (11th), and their defense,
widely regarded as one of the most talented in the NFL, doesn’t give up many
yards (8th). Yet the
Cardinals two wins have come against the Indianapolis Colts and the San Francisco
49ers, the two stars of the aforementioned Worst Game of the Week. The Eagles,
on the other hand, are simply very good.
Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton was public enemy No. 1 last week after his sexist comments to a female reporter of questionable character herself.
Carolina Panthers 3-1 (+2.5) @ Detroit Lions 3-1 (43): Lions 20-17
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather:
Indoors)
Reasons:
The Panthers are 3-1, but they’re not very good, at least not on
offense. Consider for a moment the Panthers one offensive explosion this season
came against the worst defense in the NFL (New
England). Carolina chews up the clock (3rd)
and is the most efficient team in the NFL on 3rd down, but turn the
ball over more than any team in the NFL. Don’t forget the mental burden of sometimes-fragile
Cam Newton’s sexist comments this week. The Panthers have the 4th-ranked
defense in terms of points and yards allowed, which explains their 3-1 record. Officials
and a lame NFL clock-runoff rule conspired to screw the Lions Week 4; otherwise Detroit
would be the only undefeated team in the league besides Kansas City. Add that
to the fact the Lions take the ball away more than any team in the NFL and we
could have a recipe for a Carolina disaster. The Lions offensive line is banged
up, which could be an issue, but this was destined to be a defensive battle
anyway.
Seattle Seahawks 2-2 (+1.5) @ Los
Angeles Rams 3-1 (47): Seahawks 28-27
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Los Angeles
Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA (Weather: Sunny; high 70s)
Reasons:
The Rams are rapidly on the rise, which would’ve made for a better story if the
Rams hadn’t already owned the Seahawks the last few seasons. Maybe they haven’t
“owned” Seattle, but considering the Rams, formerly of St. Louis, were consistently
one of the worst teams in the NFL, while the defensive juggernaut Seahawks were
playing for Super Bowls those same years, even tying a series any given year
seemed almost like owning. These Rams
don’t need our underdog rally cries, because they’re not really underdogs
anymore. Los Angeles is favored, albeit at home and only by 1.5 points (meaning they’re really not favored), and
are so most likely due to their top-ranked scoring offense (35.5 ppg), which is also ranks in the
top-10 in yards per play (2nd), 3rd-down efficiency (4th), yards (5th) and turnovers (9th). Before we praise the
Rams too much, let’s not forget their older divisional brothers are no slouches
themselves, with a 10th-ranked scoring defense and an offense that
has been largely ridiculed, yet ranks in the top-13 in yards (10th), 3rd-down
efficiency (10th),
turnovers (12th) and points
(13th). These could easily
be your NFC contenders come January.
Baltimore Ravens 2-2 (+3) @ Oakland Raiders 2-2 (39): Raiders 21-17
Sunday,
4:05 PM, Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, CA (Weather:
Sunny; high 70s)
Reasons:
Both of these teams are struggling after each had high hopes to begin the season after
each team started 2-0. Now both teams have lost their last two games, and one
has lost their starting quarterback for now (Oakland's quarterback Derek Carr).
There is hope, however, as both teams lost to formidable opponents (BAL: JAX, PIT; OAK: WAS, DEN), but
someone has to lose three in a row. Considering how evenly-matched the two
teams are, its logical to assume the home team has the advantage, except that
home team is probably starting EJ Manuel again, so advantage almost has sarcastic ring to it. The Ravens travel far
for this one, and the one advantage I’d normally give them, scoring defense,
actually belongs to the Raiders this time.
Sunday, 4:25 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: Clearly the NFL
Game of the Week, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers come into AT&T Stadium with
the 8th-ranked scoring offense and a decent defense (6th yards allowed; 15th
points allowed) to face a dynamic offense (23.5 ppg) with two of the most talented young players in the league
(QB Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliot)
hungry to avenge January’s controversial playoff loss to these Packers. Both quarterbacks have
combined for over 2,000 passing yards and 19 total TDs already so far in 2017,
so Sunday night’s game could really turn into a rematch of last years epic
playoff barnburner.
JJ Watt and the Houston Texans are starting to heat up, which is bad news for the rest of the NFL.
Sunday,
8:30 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather:
Indoors)
Reasons:
The Texans are a team on the rise (4th-ranked
scoring offense) after getting back to normal following Hurricane Harvey
and much of that rise can be attributed to rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson (81.4 QBR). The defense is also rounding
into shape, giving up fewer than 300 yards per game on average (292) through four games, while JJ Watt gets
back to his dominating self (4th-ranked
interior defensive lineman according to Pro Football Focus, missing 2nd
by 0.4 points). The only problem is Houston is facing the best team in the
NFL. The Chiefs rank in the top-10 in yards per play (1st), points (2nd),
total yards (2nd), turnovers (4th), 3rd-down
efficiency (8th), time of
possession (9th) and
points allowed (10th). Add
all of this to the fact Kansas City has the best running back and run-away
Rookie of the Year in Kareem Hunt, the league's best tight end in Travis Kelce and one of the most dynamic play makers in the NFL in wide receiver Tyreek
Hill, and you have a team that is nearly impossible to contend with. The Chiefs
haven’t seen Watson yet, however, and the defense has been on fire, save one
hiccup against future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady. All good things must
come to an end, and this might be the week the mighty Chiefs fall. I don’t like
the way I ended that sentence, but unlike these teams that misappropriate
cultures, I’m going to leave it there to generate thought rather then pleading
ignorance. #StickToSports
Minnesota Vikings 2-2 (-2.5) @ Chicago Bears 1-3 (40): Vikings 20-17
Monday, 8:30 PM, Soldier
Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Partly cloudy; low 60s)
Reasons: It’s a bummer we
have to end Week 5 on a meh Monday
Night Football game, but the silver lining might be watching Bears rookie
quarterback Mitch Trubisky run for his life against this Vikings defense (11.0 sacks). The Vikings are
surprisingly stout on offense, ranking 5th in 3rd-down
efficiency, and 6th in yards per play and total yards, but that was in part to Case Keenum shocking everyone and before rookie running back Dalvin Cook went
down for the year with a torn ACL. The hapless Bears aren’t going to beat this
8th-ranked scoring defense on a rookie debut, but Minnesota’s attempt
at offensive juggernaut is over.
Week 5 byes: Atlanta
Falcons; Denver Broncos; New Orleans Saints; Washington Football Team
Stay tuned Wednesday morning for Tuesday's Gone: Week 5 #NFL Game Reviews!
@ProFootballMed
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