Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots have to figure things out quick if they plan on making another Super Bowl run, but it's not Tom Brady's fault.
2017 NFL SEASON
Week 5:
#NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
Week 5 results: 7-7 wins (season: 41-36; .532); 7-7 v. spread
(season: 37-40; .481)
New England Patriots 2-2 (-5.5) @
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-1 (55): Patriots 27-21 Patriots 19-14
Thursday,
8:25 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: 60% rain; low 70s)
Reasons: The Patriots come into Thursday night's game
against the Buccaneers statistically the worst defense in the NFL, ranking last in both yards and
points allowed, a first in the Bill Belichick era. What's even worse for
perhaps the greatest defensive coaching mind in the game's history is the 2017
New England defense is on pace to be the worst in NFL history. It doesn't get any easier on the road against a Tampa Bay
offense that ranks in the top half of the NFL in yards (9th) and in points
scored (12th), especially with LB
Dont'a Hightower and CB Stephon Gilmore questionable, although Gilmore's
absence could be a blessing in disguise. Tampa Bay's defense is struggling with
attrition as well, and it couldn't have come at a worse time as they face a New
England offense that ranks 1st in yards and 2nd in points scored. Also helping
the Patriots stay afloat is their 3rd-down efficiency (7th), yards per plays (4th),
and most notably, their turnover ratio (+4,
6th), all aspects of the game the Buccaneers largely struggle with. The
weather could be a huge factor on a field already at its water holding
capacity, so the team with the better defense and ground game should win out.
The Patriots defense isn't this bad,
is it?
The
Patriots didn’t do anything to ease the nerves of New England fans, but thanks to the field conditions and Nick
Folk’s three missed field goals, the Patriots prevailed on the short week
sending them into showdown with the 3-2 New York Jets for a share of 1st
place with the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East.
Los
Angeles Chargers 0-4 (+3) @ New York Giants 0-4 (44.5): Giants 24-23 Chargers 27-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East
Rutherford, NJ (Weather: 50% rain; high 70s)
Reasons: One of
these teams is finishing this game 0-5, which is astounding considering the
amount of talent on both sides of the
ball on both teams. Both the Giants
and Chargers are relatively even statistically, which is to say they’re near
the bottom quarter to half of the league in every worthy metric. The
only place where the Chargers stand out is yards per play (9th), which stands to reason considering they have
Phillip Rivers (1107 passing yards)
throwing it to Keenan Allen (13.9 ypc)
or handing it off to Melvin Gordon (4.0
yards per touch). The Giants come into the game banged up (Questionable: Jason Pierre-Paul, Olivier
Vernon, Avery Moss), but I can’t imagine New York going 0-5 in their own
stadium, especially against a pass-heavy offense in the rain.
Perhaps the only thing worse then starting 0-5 after having Super
Bowl aspirations is losing four of your wide
receivers, including your star wide receiver, Odell Beckham Jr., and
Brandon Marshall, for the season.
Buffalo
Bills 3-1 (+3)
@ Cincinnati Bengals 1-3 (39.5): Bengals 21-20 Bengals 20-16
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium,
Cincinnati, OH (Weather: 50% rain; low 70s)
Reasons: The
Bills are the top scoring defense in the NFL, and don’t allow many yards (8th), but here’s the kicker:
The Bengals are 3rd and 3rd in those categories,
respectively, and will be mudding at home with a underachieving offense that
has improved every week of the season. This is another early game affected by
weather featuring two strong defenses and ground games. Expect a
defensive battle.
AJ Green had 189 receiving yards and a touchdown to overcome Cincinnati’s three turnovers in
the rain against the stout Buffalo Bills defense.
New
York Jets 2-2 (+1)
@ Cleveland Browns 0-4 (39.5): Jets 24-20 Jets 17-14
Sunday, 1:00 PM, First Energy Stadium,
Cleveland, OH (Weather: Sunny; mid 70s)
Reasons: The
Jets have been the surprise of 2017 for most NFL fans outside of New
England, but nothing is surprising about the Browns 0-4 start. The Browns
remain one of the worst statistical teams in the league for the 256th
week in a row, but the Jets are surprisingly mediocre. Look for that mediocrity
to best the Browns Sunday, as the Jets have faced a tougher schedule so far in
2017 and are simply the better team.
The Jets only managed 212 total yards and Duke Johnson scored a
touchdown with 1:42 left in the in the 4th quarter to make the game
look much closer than it was, despite the Jets being outgained by 207 yards. It
turns out this was the worst game of the week.
I
made the mistake of prematurely ordaining the Jets as the most
embarrassing team to be a fan of, failing to realize that burden might
always belong to Browns fans.
Jacksonville
Jaguars 2-2 (+8)
@ Pittsburgh Steelers 3-1 (42.5): Steelers 26-23 Jaguars 31-9
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Heinz Field,
Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: 50% rain; mid 70s)
Reasons: Statistically
these teams are evenly matched, which makes the 8-point spread hard to figure.
Both teams chew up clock (TOP: JAX, 6th;
PIT 11th), don’t turn the ball over (JAX: 2nd; PIT: 7th), and don’t allow yards (JAX: 11th; PIT: 2nd)
or points (JAX: 6th; PIT: 2nd).
Yet here we are, the Steelers favored by more than a touchdown at home against
an offense that scores over 27 ppg (6th).
Pittsburgh is healthy and the weather looks to be issue; perhaps therein lies
the answer.
Ben Roethlisberger threw five interceptions, two of which were
returned for touchdowns, in what was arguably the quarterback’s worst career
game. The Jaguars, who seem to have a pretty good defense, because if not for
it, we would’ve had a 17-9. I guess health wasn’t the problem; it seems the
locker room might be the bigger, lingering, issue.
Tennessee
Titans 2-2 (-2.5)
@ Miami Dolphins 1-2 (43.5): Titans 21-20 Dolphins 16-10
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami,
FL (Weather: Hot, humid; high 80s)
Reasons: The
Dolphins are absolutely awful, save their 8th-ranked scoring
defense, but they are home for the first time since 2016 after being displaced
by Hurricane Irma and then traveling to Los Angeles to New York to London. Add
this homecoming to the fact Marcus Mariota won’t be 100%, if he plays at
all, and the Titans 9th-ranked scoring offense has a much smaller
chance of winning.
This game featured two professional football teams that combined for
366 total yards and boos that rained down upon Jay Cutler until he threw the
go-ahead touchdown to Jarvis Landry with 10:33 left in the game.
San
Francisco 49ers 0-4 (+1.5) @ Indianapolis Colts 1-3 (44.5): 49ers 24-21 Colts 26-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Luca Oil Stadium,
Indianapolis, IN (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons:
Consider: This game is one of three early afternoon games that feature teams
with two or fewer combined wins. That’s
atrocious, but at least it’s not the game that features two winless teams,
right? Wrong. These teams are actually hard to watch in addition to being
statistically terrible. Spare me each team's overtime losses (v. the equally terrible Arizona Cardinals)
or the Colts lone win (v. the Cleveland
Browns). This narrowly wins “Worst Game of the Week”.
The Colts led 23-9 in the 4th quarter before the 49ers scored
two late touchdowns to send the game to OT, where the Colts have spent some
time in 2017.
Arizona
Cardinals 2-2 (+6.5)
@ Philadelphia Eagles 3-1 (45): Eagles 23-17 Eagles 34-7
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lincoln Financial
Field, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: 50% rain; high 70s)
Reasons: Every
time the Eagles have reached a level where they should be feared I feel like
they lay an egg. I put enough time into researching this article every
week, so I didn’t have time to verify my assertions, but my gut feeling says I’m
right. So should we expect the Eagles to drop the game to the lowly Cardinals
at home Sunday afternoon? No, because Arizona is the worst 2-2 team in the NFL.
The Cardinals are good at holding the ball (8th
in TOP), which helps explains why they gain so many yards (11th), and their defense,
widely regarded as one of the most talented in the NFL, doesn’t give up many
yards (8th). Yet the
Cardinals two wins have come against the Indianapolis Colts and the San
Francisco 49ers, the two stars of the aforementioned Worst Game of the Week.
The Eagles, on the other hand, are simply very good.
Carson Wentz threw four touchdown passes to destroy the Cardinals,
who five games into the season look like one of the worst teams in the NFL.
Carolina
Panthers quarterback Cam Newton was public enemy No. 1 last week after
his sexist comments to a female reporter of questionable character
herself.
Carolina
Panthers 3-1 (+2.5)
@ Detroit Lions 3-1 (43): Lions 20-17 Panthers 27-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Ford Field, Detroit,
MI (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The
Panthers are 3-1, but they’re not very good, at least not on offense. Consider
for a moment the Panthers one offensive explosion this season came against the
worst defense in the NFL (New England).
Carolina chews up the clock (3rd)
and is the most efficient team in the NFL on 3rd down, but turn the
ball over more than any team in the NFL. Don’t forget the mental burden of
sometimes-fragile Cam Newton’s sexist comments this week. The Panthers have the
4th-ranked defense in terms of points and yards allowed, which
explains their 3-1 record. Officials and a lame NFL clock-runoff rule conspired
to screw the Lions Week 4; otherwise Detroit would be the only undefeated team
in the league besides Kansas City. Add that to the fact the Lions take the ball
away more than any team in the NFL and we could have a recipe for a Carolina
disaster. The Lions offensive line is banged up, which could be an issue, but this
was destined to be a defensive battle anyway.
The 4th-quarter comeback kings almost pulled it off again,
coming back from down 27-10 to come with three points with 3:22 left in the
game, but the Panthers defense and Adversity Cam, who threw for 355 passing
yards and three TDs. Cam Newton has now thrown for 300 yards two games in a
row, for the first time since he threw for 400 yards twice in a row to start
his NFL career.
Seattle
Seahawks 2-2 (+1.5)
@ Los Angeles Rams 3-1 (47): Seahawks 28-27 Seahawks 16-10
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Los Angeles Coliseum,
Los Angeles, CA (Weather: Sunny; high 70s)
Reasons: The
Rams are rapidly on the rise, which would’ve made for a better story if the
Rams hadn’t already owned the Seahawks the last few seasons. Maybe they haven’t
“owned” Seattle, but considering the Rams, formerly of St. Louis, were
consistently one of the worst teams in the NFL, while the defensive juggernaut
Seahawks were playing for Super Bowls those same years, even tying a series any
given year seemed almost like owning.
These
Rams don’t need our underdog rally cries, because they’re not really underdogs
anymore. Los Angeles is favored, albeit at home and only by 1.5 points (meaning they’re really not favored), and
are so most likely due to their top-ranked scoring offense (35.5 ppg), which is also ranks in the
top-10 in yards per play (2nd), 3rd-down efficiency (4th), yards (5th) and turnovers (9th). Before we praise the
Rams too much, let’s not forget their older divisional brothers are no slouches
themselves, with a 10th-ranked scoring defense and an offense that
has been largely ridiculed, yet ranks in the top-13 in yards (10th), 3rd-down
efficiency (10th),
turnovers (12th) and
points (13th). These could
easily be your NFC contenders come January.
The Seahawks defense forced five turnovers and shut out the Rams in
the second half, while the Seahawks offense scored 16 unanswered points to keep
pace in the NFC West against their young new rivals.
Baltimore
Ravens 2-2 (+3)
@ Oakland Raiders 2-2 (39):
Raiders 21-17 Ravens 30-17
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Oakland Coliseum,
Oakland, CA (Weather: Sunny; high 70s)
Reasons: Both
of these teams are struggling after each had high hopes to begin the season
after each team started 2-0. Now both teams have lost their last two
games, and one has lost their starting quarterback for now (Oakland's quarterback Derek Carr). There
is hope, however, as both teams lost to formidable opponents (BAL: JAX, PIT; OAK: WAS, DEN), but
someone has to lose three in a row. Considering how evenly-matched the two
teams are, its logical to assume the home team has the advantage, except that
home team is probably starting EJ Manuel again, so advantage almost has sarcastic ring to it. The Ravens travel far
for this one, and the one advantage I’d normally give them, scoring defense,
actually belongs to the Raiders this time.
The Ravens went up early and never looked back as the Raiders
dropped three games in a row to fall to 2-3. Derek Carr may return as soon as
next week, but I’m not sure even Carr’s return is enough to fix Oakland’s
problems.
Green
Bay Packers 3-1 (+2.5)
@ Dallas Cowboys 2-2 (52.5): Packers 27-24 Packers 35-31
Aaron Rodgers is something to marvel. The Cowboys
took a 31-28 lead with 1:13 left in the game, but that was far too much time
for Rodgers (221 passing yards; 3 TDs), who hit Davante Adams – yes, he played
- in the end zone with 11 seconds remaining for the game-winning touchdown.
Sunday, 4:25 PM, AT&T Stadium,
Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons:
Clearly the NFL Game of the Week, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers come into
AT&T Stadium with the 8th-ranked scoring offense and a decent
defense (6th yards allowed; 15th
points allowed) to face a dynamic offense (23.5 ppg) with two of the most talented young players in the league
(QB Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliot)
hungry to avenge January’s controversial playoff loss to these Packers. Both
quarterbacks have combined for over 2,000 passing yards and 19 total TDs
already so far in 2017, so Sunday night’s game could really turn into a
rematch of last years epic playoff barnburner.
JJ Watt and the Houston Texans are starting to heat up, which is bad news for the rest of the NFL.
Kansas
City Chiefs 4-0 (-1)
@ Houston Texans 2-2 (46): Texans 24-23 Chiefs 42-34
Sunday, 8:30 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston,
TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The
Texans are a team on the rise (4th-ranked
scoring offense) after getting back to normal following Hurricane Harvey
and much of that rise can be attributed to rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson (81.4 QBR). The defense is also rounding
into shape, giving up fewer than 300 yards per game on average (292) through four games, while JJ Watt
gets back to his dominating self (4th-ranked
interior defensive lineman according to Pro Football Focus, missing 2nd
by 0.4 points). The only problem is Houston is facing the best team in the
NFL. The Chiefs rank in the top-10 in yards per play (1st), points (2nd),
total yards (2nd),
turnovers (4th), 3rd-down
efficiency (8th), time of
possession (9th) and
points allowed (10th). Add
all of this to the fact Kansas City has the best running back and run-away
Rookie of the Year in Kareem Hunt, the league's best tight end in Travis Kelce
and one of the most dynamic play makers in the NFL in wide receiver Tyreek
Hill, and you have a team that is nearly impossible to contend with. The
Chiefs haven’t seen Watson yet, however, and the defense has been on
fire, save one hiccup against future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady. All
good things must come to an end, and this might be the week the mighty Chiefs
fall. I don’t like the way I ended that sentence, but unlike these teams that
misappropriate cultures, I’m going to leave it there to generate thought rather
then pleading ignorance. #StickToSports
This game featured 40 points in the 4th quarter alone,
another 100-yard game from Chiefs rookie running back Kareem Hunt, and another
5 TD game from Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson and those weren’t even
the biggest stories of the game. JJ Watt broke his leg and will likely miss the
rest of the season. The amount of serious injuries seems to be on the rise, and
to very big names, which is not a good thing for the NFL. The Chiefs, however,
are good for the NFL.
Minnesota
Vikings 2-2 (-2.5)
@ Chicago Bears 1-3 (40): Vikings 20-17 Vikings 20-17
Monday, 8:30
PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather:
Partly cloudy; low 60s)
Reasons: It’s
a bummer we have to end Week 5 on a meh
Monday Night Football game, but the silver lining might be watching Bears
rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky run for his life against this Vikings defense
(11.0 sacks). The Vikings are
surprisingly stout on offense, ranking 5th in 3rd-down
efficiency, and 6th in yards per play and total yards, but that was
in part to Case Keenum shocking everyone and before rookie running back Dalvin
Cook went down for the year with a torn ACL. The hapless Bears aren’t going to
beat this 8th-ranked scoring defense on a rookie debut, but
Minnesota’s attempt at offensive juggernaut is over.
Nailed it.
Week 5 byes: Atlanta Falcons;
Denver Broncos; New Orleans Saints; Washington Football Team
Stay
tuned Thursday and Sunday morning for Week 6: #NFL Game
Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)!
@ProFootballMed
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.