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Thursday, January 10, 2019

Week 19: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) DIVISIONAL ROUND PLAYOFFS EDITION

2018 NFL SEASON
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
 
  Week 19: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) DIVISIONAL ROUND PLAYOFFS EDITION



2018 NFL Playoffs: 
WILD CARD ROUND: 2-2 .500 (WINS); 4-0 1.000 (ATS); 3-1 .750 (O/U)
2018 season totals: 
167-87-2 .652 (WINS); 119-129-8 .480 (ATS); 140-113-3 .553 (O/U) 

Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). Point spreads and over/under figures are taken from the opening lines of games from Vegas Insider


Will he screw it up?


Indianapolis Colts 11-6 (+5.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs 12-4 (57): Colts 30-28

Saturday, 4:35 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Cloudy; high 30s)


Reasons: The man who’s largely responsible for the Eagles success last year faces the man who’s known for not quite getting the Eagles where they should’ve been all those McNabb years. The reason for the latter is well documented, specifically Chiefs head coach Andy Reid’s innate ability to crush the regular season just to mismanage the clock right down to an early exit from the playoffs despite having a top seed and the bye. The last time these two teams played with any semblance of their current structure was in 2013 when Andrew Luck led the Colts to a 45-44 barn-burning win, in which the Chiefs led 31-10 at halftime only to see Luck open up for 35 second-half points to steal the victory. Luck threw the game-winning TD to TY Hilton with just over four minutes remaining in the game and the rest is history. That could be a familiar sight come Saturday, but the unfamiliar sight will be plausible MVP Patrick Mahomes (5,097 passing yards; 52 Total TDs; 12 INTs) at the helm rather than Alex Smith, RIP. Mahomes has all the hype, but it’s Luck (39 passing TDs) who should probably be winning the MVP award in 2018, and it’s the Colts who have the hottest team in the NFL with the head coach largely responsible for Philadelphia’s mercurial rise last season. The Chiefs have been home resting, a recipe for disaster for teams built on finesse, timing and getting off to fast starts. The Chiefs crush everyone on offense and then sit back and let the clock expire as the opposing team scrambles to catch up. The Colts are a complete team, top-10 in total offense, points scored and allowed, 3rd-down efficiency, INTs and takeaways, while being 11th in total defense. Although the Chiefs rank 1st in sacks and 9th in INTs, they rank as one of the worst defenses of all time, not just this year. Both teams are banged up on offense and the weather should be fine if not a little cold, so neither should affect the game much. What the game will come down to is a rookie quarterback with a ton of pressure to advance, who has been doing nothing but thinking about it for two weeks, with a coach that makes historically poor playoff coaching decisions against the hottest team in the playoffs with an experienced hungry quarterback with a coach who just went through all of this just last year. I usually don’t trust these high-flying one-dimensional barn burner type teams, especially without a defense, on a bye, after destroying the competition all season. I definitely don’t trust those type teams against a team like the Colts, and these aren’t your older brother’s dome Colts (5-4 on the road in 2018 including the playoffs with two dome games against the Houston Texans).


Much of the Los Angeles Rams regular season success was a function of Todd Gurley and the playoffs will be no different.

Dallas Cowboys 11-6 (+7) @ Los Angeles Rams 12-4 (49.5): Cowboys 28-27

Saturday, 8:15 PM, Los Angeles Memorial Stadium, Los Angeles, CA (Weather: Chance rain; low 60s)

Reasons: Speaking of not trusting teams with first round byes that beat up on the competition all year, these Rams might be the least trust worthy of any of the home teams this weekend. The final month of the season, a pretty intuitive indicator of momentum heading into the playoffs, was disastrous for the Rams as they lost two games in Weeks 14-15 to two playoff-bound teams in which their offense was stalled almost completely before closing the season with two wins against two of the five worst teams in the NFL, arguably the worst two (ARZ; SF). Compound that with the questionable status of Todd Gurley, the gear that drives this Rams offense, and no Cooper Kupp, and you might have some trouble against a Cowboys team that either blows up or disintegrates upon feeling themselves. The Cowboys are officially feeling themselves after taking advantage of Sebastian Janikowski’s pathetic hamstring. You could argue as I did last week about the way Dallas ended their season with several one-possession games disguised as a winning streak, but I would counter with points about momentum, which the Cowboys have in spades, while the Rams are left thinking about what happened to them the last time they were in a similar position: They lost 26-13 to the Atlanta Falcons after going 11-5 and hosting a playoff game. Call the Rams a young team back then and I’ll remind you only a year has passed, and after selling the farm to put together a Super Bowl champion now, the pressure is on this relatively young team to not repeat last year. That’s a tough task against one of the league’s best defenses (6th PA; 7th total defense) and the league’s leading rusher (Ezekiel Elliot: 1434 rushing yards; 4.7 ypc; 6 TDs), but if any team can do it, it should be the team that finished the regular season the 2nd-ranked overall offense (Points scored & total offense). The Rams take the ball away (3rd) and usually via interception (3rd), so Dak Prescott beware, but this game ultimately comes down to the classic top-ranked offense versus top-ranked defense, and you know what they say. This time the top-ranked defense also has some sizzle on offense. Did you see Jerry Jones yacht??? 



 If you live outside of New England you hate this man.


Los Angeles Chargers 13-4 (+4.5) @ New England Patriots 11-5 (46): Patriots 24-23

Sunday, 1:05PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Chance snow; high 20s)



Reasons: Ahh, everyone outside of New England’s worst nightmare: The one season no one in the football world trusts the Patriots to make any noise, even within New England, and they land the 2nd seed, a first round bye, face a team that has never beaten them in the playoffs with their current QB situation (Philip Rivers v. Tom Brady) and the forecast calls for snow. What could go wrong for the team from Southern California traveling across the country to the Atlantic Ocean for the second week in a row that has never beaten this Tom Brady-led Patriots team in the playoffs? Don’t look now, but this Patriots team, the one that is supposedly one of the worst in the 18-year Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era, and likely is, is top-10 in pretty much everything that matters besides total defense (21st and debatable context), 3rd-down efficiency on either side of the ball and sacking the opposing QB (30th). Although glaring, those three aforementioned metrics pale in comparison to being top-seven in the NFL in points scored, total offense, offensive penalty yards, points allowed, TO ratio, takeaways and interceptions while entering the Divisional Round healthy and on the winning side of history. Speaking of history, the Chargers aforementioned woes against the Patriots with Philip Rivers at starting QB are well documented, to the tune of going 2-7 overall and 0-2 in the playoffs (2007 H & 2008 A) since Rivers first played the Patriots (2005); in fact, Rivers won the first game he ever played against Tom Brady and Brady was injured the second time a Rivers-led Chargers team beat the Patriots, so to Dad it probably seems like he’s never beaten the Golden Boy. Think it weighs on Rivers mind? Probably more than remembering how many kids he has. Maybe it should be noted that Brady lost his first game against the Chargers in 2001, then of San Diego, but probably not since all that makes the series in the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era is 3-8 overall. The last time the Chargers came to Foxborough in January it was 2008 and the Patriots escaped 21-12; I see much of the same happening here. The Chargers are one of the most talented and statistically-sound teams on both sides of the ball in the NFL, but so are the Patriots, statistically anyway, and the travel, having no home, Philip Rivers’ legacy and these two team’s histories are all staring down Rivers and the Los Angeles Chargers. I’m a regression-to-the-mean guy, and this four-game regular season and two-game playoff win streak won’t last forever, but the Patriots have a habit of breaking hearts outside of Baltimore and Denver in these home playoff situations. Patriots win, but the Chargers cover.


 I'm not sure even the Nice Guy Gods can help Drew Brees against Big Dick Nick.


Philadelphia Eagles 10-7 (+8) @ New Orleans Saints 12-4 (51): Saints 28-24

Sunday, 4:40 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)


Reasons: On paper it’s easy to say the Eagles have no chance. Not only are the Saints offense world beaters once again, they finally have a defense to match. Ok, maybe not match, but the Saints defense is 5th in sacks, 7th in defensive penalty yards and 14th in PA, total defense and takeaways, which may seem mediocre, but is literally 100% better (last to mid-range) than the Saints defense has been in years past when Drew Brees was an MVP candidate and the Super Bowl seemed attainable, but the defense was giving up 35+ ppg. Brees might win the MVP this year, and came within eight yards of another 4,000 yard passing season, but he sat the last game. The book is out on the Saints offense: They score a ton of points (31.5 ppg, 3rd), block well, have dynamic talent in Alvin Kamara (14 TDs) and Michael Thomas (1,405 receiving yards; 9 TDs), have veteran bangers like Mark Ingram and the pedigree to not be phased by the moment. Speaking of moments, what the hell is going on with Nick Foles and these Philadelphia Eagles? As I said in my Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots analysis, sometimes the mystic aspect of football overwhelms the logical and tangible aspects and a team rides momentum through the playoffs. Ask the 2011 New York Giants. Statistically the Eagles are good at one thing: Sacking the QB (8th). Now things are really getting freaky, because that’s all those 2011 Giants were good at, too. Well, they did have a dynamic receiver in Victor Cruz (Alshon Jeffery) and a quarterback that people didn’t think twice about, but managed to become the Super Bowl hero in Eli Manning (Nick Foles). The two teams even suffered similar adversity throughout their respective seasons. Wow, this is getting creepy, but these Eagles aren’t the 2011 Giants, in part because the Giants weren’t defending Super Bowl champions, and, in part, because Eli ain’t Big Dick Nick. At the end of the day the Saints are the only team I would assume wouldn’t lay an egg after enjoying the first round bye, but these Eagles are riding on some seriously wide wings right now, which means they’re covering for sure.


Stay tuned for Tuesday's Gone: Week 19 #NFL Game Reviews DIVISIONAL ROUND EDITION coming Friday!


@ProFootballMedia.com
@ProFootballMed



Monday, January 7, 2019

Tuesday's Gone: Week 18 #NFL Game Reviews WILD CARD PLAYOFFS EDITION

2018 NFL SEASON
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
 
  Tuesday's Gone: Week 18 #NFL Game Reviews WILD CARD PLAYOFFS EDITION


2018 NFL Playoffs: 
WILD CARD ROUND: 2-2 .500 (WINS); 4-0 1.000 (ATS); 3-1 .750 (O/U)

2018 season totals: 
167-87-2 .652 (WINS); 119-129-8 .480 (ATS); 140-113-3 .553 (O/U) 

Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS).

 Andrew Luck has led a band of young players from 1-5 to the Wild Card Round of the playoffs and is even in serious MVP consideration.

Indianapolis Colts 10-6 (+1.5) @ Houston Texans 11-5 (48.5): Colts 24-23 Colts 21-7
Saturday, 4:35 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: I can’t imagine the Texans are too psyched about seeing a red-hot Colts team, a divisional opponent that they split the season series with no less, especially considering how each team started the season. The Colts were widely considered a project, whose progress relied heavily upon the health of Andrew Luck, who appeared to be heading down the Peyton Manning path. No, the other path to not being able to throw a football. Instead, the Colts drafted well and almost won the division after starting the season 1-5. Think about how insane that is: The Colts started 1-5. Indianapolis then went 9-1 and now brings perhaps the youngest team into the playoffs, which could be a curse or a blessing. Guess who else has never played a playoff game? Deshaun Watson, who leads a Texans team that has lost their identity the past few weeks and almost lost the division after leading it by a wide margin for most of the season. Truth be told, the Texans started 0-3 themselves, and Billy O’Brien had some of the best early odds to lose his job, but alas, the Texans rattled off their own winning streak (9 games) starting Week 4 against these very Colts before, well, these very Colts ended that streak during Week 14. Speaking of those regular season matchups, these teams split 1-1, both games decided by three points. So basically what we have here is a rubber match between two divisional opponents in which the Colts team is full of inexperienced players led by a seasoned playoff veteran and the Texans are an experienced playoff team led by a quarterback with no playoff experience. The bottom line is the Texans are 2-2 to close the season, one of those wins a one-possession game against the NY Jets they almost lost. That’s no way to enter the playoffs against a Colts team that ended the regular season top-10 in total offense, defense, points scored and points allowed. The Texans were that once…

The game was over with just over four minutes remaining in the 1st quarter and so went the Texans once great season. As I said in my review, the Texans had been playing awful the final month of the season, which spelt doom, especially considering the Colts were trending in the opposite direction heading into the playoffs, including having just beaten these Texans just a few weeks prior. The Colts suddenly stout defense held the Texans to just 322 total yards and shut them out until the 10-minute mark of the 4th quarter, when, for a split second, it seemed Houston could breath life into the game. Not so much. Indianapolis sacked Deshaun Watson (235 passing yards; 1 TD; 1 INT) three times and forced an INT, and while Andrew Luck didn't play much better (222 passing yards; 2 TDs; 1 INT), the Colts rushed for nearly twice as many yards (200 to 105), with more than 75% of the Texans rushing yards coming on the legs of a scrambling Watson, and controlled the tempo for much of the game. Watson averaged 4.8 ypa, threw his only TD at a relatively meaningless time of the game, and the mighty Texans defense recorded not a sack nor a TO. This game was all red-hot Colts, and the rest of the NFL beware. Hopefully they don't end up in Foxborough. 

 
 So much for a rebuilding year. Russell Wilson has led the Seahawks to another playoff appearance.

Seattle Seahawks 10-6 (+2) @ Dallas Cowboys 10-6 (43): Seahawks 24-21 Cowboys 24-22
Saturday, 8:15 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)


Reasons: The Cowboys won seven of their final eight games to win the NFC East after starting the season 3-5, one of those losses coming to these Seahawks (24-13 Week 3), but those seven wins were all one-possession games. You could call those gutsy wins or you could call them games they could’ve easily lost. Those games were largely won on the Cowboys top-10 defense (now 12th in total defense), Ezekiel Elliot’s legs (1434 rushing yards; 6 TDs) and the mid-season trade of Amari Cooper (53 receptions; 725 receiving yards; 6 TDs with Dallas). Unfortunately for Dallas, all three of those phases of the Cowboys game have suffered or didn’t play at all the past three games. The Dallas defense surrendered 26 ppg, Ezekiel Elliot rushed for 171 total yards and fumbled twice in the two games he played, and Amari Cooper caught 13 balls for 83 total yards in those last three games. That’s not how you want to enter a rare playoff appearance against the dark horse of the NFC, a Seahawks teams that averages 26.8 ppg (6th) led by Russell Wilson (3,448 passing yards; 35 TDs; 7 INT), who, the last time I checked, is smashing quarterback pace records in his seventh season while playing in multiple Super Bowls already. The Seahawks compliment Wilson with the league’s top rushing attack by a wide margin, which just happens to play right into the Cowboys 5th-ranked rush defense. The 13th-ranked Seahawks are no run-stopping slouches themselves, so this game likely comes down to Wilson versus Dak Prescott (18th-ranked QB by Pro Football Focus), in which Wilson holds the decided advantage.

Let's get real: This game came down to the mangled hamstring of an ancient overweight kicker. Having said that, that mangled hamstring covered our asses, literally, if you had the Seahawks winning a/o covering. I digress. Dallas scored two 4th-quarter TDs to turn a 14-10 Seahawks lead into a 24-14 Cowboys lead with just over two minutes remaining in the game. The Seahawks predictably scored quickly and then were forced to go for the 2-point conversion without a K, succeeded, and then subsequently muffed the onside kick worse than any onside kick has ever been muffed. Imagine your great season coming down to an old, overweight, out-of-shape kicker injuring his hamstring on a FG, forcing two-point conversions and the ugliest onside kick to ever grace a pitch, which could be argued was the game. Damn. Ezekiel Elliot rushed for 137 and a TD on 26 carries, the lone dominant offensive performance from any Cowboy, but the game belonged again to the Cowboys defense, which held the Seahawks to 299 total yard, including only 73 rush yards on 24 carries (3.0 ypc) by the most dominant run team in 2018. 

 
 Remember this guy? Neither does anyone outside of Audubon, NJ. Go Green Wave!

Los Angeles Chargers 12-4 (+2.5) @ Baltimore Ravens 10-6 (41.5): Ravens 21-20 Chargers 23-17
Sunday, 1:05 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Sunny; low 50s) 

Reasons: The Chargers lost to these Ravens just a few weeks ago (22-10 Week 16), but that game was in Carson, CA, or “home” as we’re supposed to call it when referring to it in the context of the Chargers. Before I lose you, the Chargers were 7-1 on the road this season, tied for the best road record in the NFL (NO Saints), which brings me to my point: The Chargers are better on the road. Unfortunately, the Ravens are 6-2 at home this year, and 6-1 since turning the team over to rookie Lamar Jackson, but what does that mean? Jackson was an average quarterback at best in his seven games (58% completion; 6 TDs; 3 INTs; 7.0 ypa), while almost all the hype came from his legs (147 carries for 695 rushing yards; 4.7 ypc; 6 TDs) and those six wins. Those six wins belong more to the clock ticking as the Ravens ran the ball over 45 times per game after the bye week (Week 11) once Jackson took over, an almost unthinkable metric by today’s NFL standards. The Ravens defense isn’t the best overall defense in the league for nothing. Jackson also looks like a Michael Vick injury in the making. The Chargers are the more talented team, and we could be looking at a HOF quarterback in Philip Rivers (4,308 passing yards; 32 TDs; 12 INTs) against a rookie quarterback, but the Chargers never accomplished anything in San Diego with better teams, so it’s hard to imagine they beat the best defense in the NFL on the road against a dynamic rookie who chews up the clock when you just got destroyed by said team three weeks prior. Add the attrition issues with Hunter Henry and Austin Ekeler and what we have is a Chargers team that started slow, peaked late and seems to have hit the offensive wall at the worst possible time. The Chargers spent another year underachieving due to injuries, overachieving with replacements, dominating once the team was back intact and then exiting the playoffs early. Same team, different city. Well, I guess Carson is a town.

Many experts said Lamar Jackson would flop on the big stage. Many experts said the Chargers would never lose to the same team twice in as many weeks. Many experts claimed the Chargers had more talent than the Ravens on defense, it just didn't materialize on the field all year for reasons that largely included attrition. Yet, besides the cover, I bought into the clock management. I bought into Jackson's legs, without even considering how terrible his infant-stage NFL Michael Vick arm was. I bought into the Chargers not being able to travel to Baltimore twice in three weeks and lose. I really bought into the Chargers being thin at key offensive positions (RB; TE) to the point where scoring at all would be tough against the Ravens, especially after Melvin Gordon went down again with another lower leg injury. Well, I had no idea the Ravens would have negative passing yards going into the second half of the game, nor did I know the Ravens beastly run game would only manage 90 ground yards on 23 carries (3.9 ypc) the entire game, 54 of those yards coming on the legs of Jackson. Speaking of Jackson, he finished the game with 194 passing yards (155 as a team because Jackson was sacked seven times), a whopping 132 of those yards coming on the Ravens two TD drives at the six-and-a-half- and two-minute marks of the 4th quarter, by which time it was too late. This was a tale of two defenses, and it turns out the defense everyone "Raved" about all year wasn't nearly as dominating as a Chargers team that was supposed to be talked about all year. I know, the Ravens offense was absolutely atrocious.  

 
 It's that time of the year again when Carson Wentz gets seriously injured and hands the keys to Dick, sorry, Nick Foles to work his magic. 

Philadelphia Eagles 9-7 (+6) @ Chicago Bears 12-4 (41): Bears 24-20 Eagles 16-15
Sunday, 4:40 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Cloudy; low 40s)

Reasons: The final game of Wild Card weekend is the only game in which the home team is actually favored. I know what you’re thinking, every home team is favored. Not really in Las Vegas terms, though, because the home team generally gets two to three points in a spread just for being home. If you’re favored by 1.5 points at home, you’re not really favored. Well, the Bears are heavy favorites, which has to be based on two things: Nick and Foles. The greatest back up quarterback since Jeff Hostetler, Foles was injured in Week 17, but managed to avoid the injury report heading into the game Sunday. The other Foles aspect is that most experts simply don’t trust him. Despite all the heroics, there’s a reason Foles is a journey man at best. Mediocre with a splash of madness and miracle. The same man who holds NFL records and a Super Bowl MVP has almost been run out of the NFL several different times. The Eagles had a nightmare season, rife with chemistry issues, a defensive coach (as in angry, not Xs and Os) and injuries that even affected several layers of depth. Yet, here the reigning NFL Champions are, in the playoffs and four wins away from another Super Bowl title, which would put their season win total one below what the Eagles won during the regular season last year alone. The Bears, on the other hand, won their first division title since 2010 and likely wouldn’t even be here if not for the trade heard ‘round the world that landed them Khalil Mack. The Bears had defensive talent to begin with; Mack gave the defense the freedom to play to their potential knowing he was in the middle to save everything. The surprising aspect of the Bears was their dynamic offense, one that averaged over 29 ppg and were ranked as high as 5th not long ago. Chicago ended the season ranked 9th at 26.3 ppg, but only scored 19.3 ppg their last four games, which led to the dip in average, but also concerns about Mitch Trubisky, who after missing weeks 12-13 only threw four TDs in his final four games (Trubisky averaged 1.8 TD passes/g in his first 11 games), threw three INTs, fumbled twice and was sacked four times. For the record Trubisky only fumbled four times in his previous 11 games and only threw nine INTs. In other words, after a fast start Trubisky fizzled slightly, meaning the Bears chances will come down to what everyone assumed: The defense. The Bears are better than the Eagles in every major metric besides total offense and defensive penalty yards, but many of those offensive metrics are padded by the first three quarters of the season. This is the only game of the weekend in which these teams didn’t face each other in 2018, so I’ll assume the game comes down to Mike Nagy calling a Chi Chi, how the Bears suffocating defense plays if Eddie Jackson can't go and the Eagles late season magic. Does Philly Philly have another miracle up their sleeves or will Mack swallow their hopes? One big hit to Foles and we have our answer.

Just don't forget you first read about the Nick Foles (266 passing yards; 2 TDs; 2 INTs) HOF bandwagon here. What is with this dude? Foles threw two INTs and was poised to be the scapegoat in a game in which the Eagles were struggling on offense, but dominating, as advertised, on defense, when Foles flipped the script and hit his mid-season trade in Golden Tate for the go-ahead TD with 56 seconds remaining in the game. Despite out-possessing the ball and gaining more first downs the Eagles gained fewer yards and committed the only two TOs of the game, yet, here the Eagles are, heading to the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs after beating arguably the best defense in the NFL, on the road, with Saint Nick. The holiness of this guy is becoming more evident by the [big] game. The Bears offense was putrid, as it's been in recent weeks, something I warned about, with Mitch Trubisky accounting for 300 of the team's 356 total yards. The run game never got off the ground and the passing game was inconsistent at best, putting the game on the shoulders of the Chicago defense again, which has proven to be a fatal flaw in many defensive-minded teams once the playoffs roll around. All I know is the Philadelphia Eagles have returned to their January 2018 form in that there isn't a team in the league that wants to face Nick Foles and the Eagles right now. Fly, Eagles, fly, indeed. 


 
Stay tuned for Week 19: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) DIVISIONAL ROUND EDITION coming Friday!


@ProFootballMedia.com
@ProFootballMed