2019 NFL SEASON
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Week 17: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
REGULAR SEASON FINALE EDITION
REGULAR SEASON FINALE EDITION
2019 NFL SEASON WEEK 16:
11-5 .688 (WINS); 10-5-1 .667 (ATS); 7-9 .438 (O/U)
2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:
154-84-1 .647 (WINS); 130-102-7 .560 (ATS); 127-109-3 .538 (O/U)
WEEK 16 TOP 5 GAMES:
TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:
Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All images from Google with permission to reuse without license* Statistical sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider
NEW TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON
< Drake voice >
"TOP 5 TOP 5 TOP 5"
Pro Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week for either the spread OR O/U denoted by an asterisk (*). Roll with our Top 5 and watch the money pile up all season!
Sam Darnold would like to hand this season off to someone else, perhaps the schoolgirl that gave him mono.
Sunday, 1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: 70% rain; low 50s)
Keys: The seeding is set and the Bills are the 5th seed, so they don’t stand to gain anything, but stand to lose everything to injury. So this number is surprising in that I’d be surprised if many of the Bills starters played. The Jets should jump at the chance to make it look like they had a halfway decent season if they finish 7-9, so look for the Jets to pull off the “upset” and the weather to produce the under.
Cleveland Browns 6-9 (-2.5) v. Cincinnati Bengals 1-14 (44.5): Browns 24-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: 100% rain; low 60s)
Green Bay Packers 12-3 (-12.5) @ Detroit Lions 3-11-1 (43): Packers 27-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: So the Packers beat the Minnesota Vikings handily last week and proved they’re a legit 12-3 team, right? Wrong, but the Lions are no litmus test and the Packers are still in the hunt for a first round bye.
Los Angeles Chargers 5-10 (-8.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs 11-4 (44.5): Chiefs 23-14
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Mostly cloudy; low 40s)
Keys: The Chiefs still have work to do. They could clinch a first round bye with a win and a New England Patriots lose to the Miami Dolphins. Why is KC only giving 8.5 points then? Because the Chargers are healthy for the first time all season long. So are the Chiefs, which begs a few questions I don’t feel like asking. Seems to me even if Philip Rivers thinks this is his last game as a Charger, so what? The Chiefs are better, have a respectable defense for the first time in years (7th scoring defense) and are playing at home in 40-degree weather. Considering the circumstances the Chiefs should win easily or maybe it is time for those questions.
(Image credit: ProFootballWeekly)
Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Vikings have the 6th seed locked and can’t move up because they lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to the Seattle Seahawks. That almost screams Bears victory to me, because the Vikings are as inconsistent as any 10-win team with that much paper talent and the Bears are trying to salvage pride as the enter a dark off-season rife with major disappointment and underachieving. Not to mention a young starting QB with a crisis of confidence issue. The 2018 Coach of the Year has a lot of work ahead of him, but no one can prevent injuries.
New Orleans Saints 12-3 (-13) @ Carolina Panthers 5-10 (46): Saints 24-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: 90% rain; high 60s)
Keys: The Saints have a chance at a first round bye, but not much of a chance in the pouring rain. Sorry, I meant a chance to cover. All eyes will be on Run CMC Sunday to see if he can gain 216 yards from scrimmage and take the single season record from Chris Johnson (2009: 2509 yards).
Keys: Don’t believe in climate change? I use a team template for these articles and the template is from Week 1 last year (mid-September). The weather for this game at the end of December is the same – the low 80s. There’s nothing in this game for us besides two Jameis Winston INTs for the 30/30 Club. Will the Atlanta secondary, ranked 20th in INTs, be able to help Winston with that feat? Of course, Winston’s INTs don't discriminate.
Miami Dolphins 4-11 (-15.5) @ New England Patriots 12-3 (45): Patriots 27-10
Keys: The Patriots have a chance to secure the second seed and a first round bye, which they desperately need to get things in order before they likely play the Kansas City Chiefs again in the Divisional Round. End of story, although the story may be closer the 15.5 points, but not if you’re using NE’s record ATS in games favored by 10 or more points (5-1).
The future is bright for these Baltimore Ravens, but will resting Lamar Jackson come back to bite them?
Sunday, 4:25 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: 80% rain; mid-50s)
Keys: The Ravens have locked up the top AFC seed and the Steelers need to win and the Tennessee Titans to lose to make it to the playoffs in a year no one on Earth expected the Steelers to do so. The Steelers will be playing against half of the Ravens, so they should be able to squeak out the win while sweating out the HOUvsTEN game on the jumbo-tron. Wow, the NFL can get lucky sometimes.
Washington Pigskins 3-12 (-11) @ Dallas Cowboys 7-8 (44.5): Cowboys 28-21
Keys: It’s amazing a team can score 10 or fewer points in 20% of your games and still be the top total offense and 8th in scoring. The Cowboys cannot lose Sunday or they face the most disappointing year in a long list of disappointing years spanning over 20 years. The Pigskins come in limping, but with Case Keenum back at the helm. For some reason that makes me think the Pigskins stand a chance...of covering. However, the money line would be a hilarious hit, and not even a crazy risk with these basket case Cowboys.
Tennessee Titans 8-7 (-3.5) @ Houston Texans 10-5 (45): Titans 27-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Titans just need to win and they’re in, but the Texans could win, and if the Chiefs lose, the Texans would slide into the 3rd seed and potentially avoid the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round. That’s a lot to risk for a possibly futile situation. The Titans are a different team since Week 7, going 6-3 in their nine games since starting the season 2-4. Most of that has to do with Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry, and they’ll be at it again Sunday against a Texans team expected to rest most of their starters.
Sunday, 4:25 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: 60% storms; high 60s)
Keys: Things were so promising for the Colts, then went to hell with Andrew Luck’s preseason retirement, then became promising again, just to see the Colts end up exactly where Las Vegas had them pinned: 7.5 wins. The Colts wins O/U bettors and the greater Indianapolis area will be watching this game closely. The rest of the country will not.
Of course the NFC Least comes down to Week 17 and the winner of the division will either be 9-7 (Philadelphia) or 8-8 (Dallas).
Sunday, 4:25 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: 40% rain; low 40s)
Keys: All the Eagles have to do is win and they win the NFC East and host a playoff game. If they lose and the Cowboys win they’ll lose the tiebreaker and miss the playoffs. That seems like a pretty simple task against a 4-11 team, but that team is a divisional opponent that would like nothing more than to ruin Philadelphia’s season, and at this point the Eagles have suffered so much attrition that they have about as much talent as the Giants, maybe less.
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Sunny; high 30s)
Keys: If the Titans, Steelers and Jaguars all lose the Raiders are the 6th seed. Well, they have to also beat the Broncos, but I’m not even sure they can do that.
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Los Angeles Memorial Stadium, Los Angeles, CA (Weather: Sunny; mid-60s)
Keys: Neither team is making the playoffs, one team’s dream is probably over and the other team’s rebuild is coming along at the expected pace, except for Cardinals bettors, who have gone 9-5-1 ATS. Look for that trend to continue Week 17. The Rams would like to salvage a 9-7 record in a division where two of the other three teams are literally battling in Week 17 for the what could be the top seed in the NFC and 9-7 would actually look pretty respectable when people look back years from now. Just kidding, no one will care as caring in anything has taken a generational exponential dive. Rams win; Cardinals cover. I bet the Rams can’t wait to share an empty stadium with the Chargers.
San Francisco 49ers 12-3 (+3) @ Seattle Seahawks 11-4 (47): 49ers 27-23
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Century Link Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: 20% rain; mid-50s)
Keys: The NFL saved the best for last, a battle for the NFC West crown and possibly the NFC’s top seed and home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Did I mention the return of Beast Mode? Seattle doesn’t deserve it. The most overrated team in the NFL (0.8 ppg point differential) has been exposed recently, losing two of their last three games by at least two TDs. The 49ers are by no means overrated, but have lost two games in the past four weeks, but one lose was to the AFC’s top seed (BAL). Regardless, save any Russell Wilson miracles, and he does apparently have a line to God, the 49ers have dominated on the road this year (6-1) while the Seahawks home field advantage (4-3) seems like a thing of the past. The 49ers have a chance to make a serious Super Bowl run and exact revenge on the Baltimore Ravens, but it starts with a win at Seattle in the last regular season game of the 2019 season.
Stay tuned for Tuesday's Gone: Week 17 #NFL Game Reviews 2019 REGULAR SEASON FINALE EDITION coming Wednesday!