2019 NFL SEASON
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Week 16: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
FIRST WEEKEND EDITION
FIRST WEEKEND EDITION
2019 NFL SEASON WEEK 15:
6-10 .375 (WINS); 6-9-1 .400 (ATS); 12-4 .750 (O/U)
2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:
143-79-1 .644 (WINS); 120-97-6 .552 (ATS); 120-100-3
.545 (O/U)
WEEK 15 TOP 5 GAMES:
2-2-1 (.500)
2-2-1 (.500)
TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:
43-23-3 (.652)
Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis
based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points
against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA);
Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd);
Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S);
Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All
images from Google with permission to reuse without license* Statistical
sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football
Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures
are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider
NEW
TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON
<
Drake voice >
"TOP
5 TOP 5 TOP 5"
Pro
Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week for either the spread OR O/U denoted by an asterisk (*). Roll with our Top 5
and watch the money pile up all season!
How can you not love football field Jameis Winston, who stands to become the first 30/30 Club (TD/INT) in NFL history?
Keys: The
amazing thing about these two teams is that according to Pro Football
Reference’s SRS metric (point
differential/SoS equation on a neutral field)
they're ranked 14th
(HOU)
and 15th
(TB).
The
Texans bring a top-10 offense to Tampa Bay, the 30th
ranked scoring defense, but the funny thing is, the Texans stellar
running attack (6th
ypa; 7th
total yards)
will face the only aspect of the Bucs defense that’s solid: their
run defense (ATT:
3rd;
YDS: 1st;
TD: 9th;
YPA: 2nd).
The Bucs also take the ball away (6th),
so the Texans have their work cut out for them if they want to seal
up the AFC South. It’s funny talking about the Buccaneers takeaways
since they give up it up more than anyone in the NFL (32nd)
thanks to Jameis Winston (32nd
INTs).
Look for the Bucs to make the Texans sweat out the Tennessee Titans
game and a possible Week 17 do-or-die, but unfortunately for the
Bucs, their season has come down to Jameis Winston making the 30/30 Club or bust.
Buffalo
Bills 10-4
(+6.5)
@
New England Patriots 11-3
(38.5):
Patriots
24-17
Keys:
Man
oh man, the Bills could force the AFC East to Week 17. When’s
the last time that
happened? How about the last time the Bills offense was better than
the Patriots offense. When was that, the early 90s? Well,
it still hasn’t technically happened, but the Bills have a better running game,
and the Patriots (18th)
only rank four spots higher than the Bills (22nd)
in total yards. The
comparisons don’t end there. These defenses are two of the best in
the NFL, the Patriots literally being the best, ranked 1st
in scoring defense and yards allowed, in addition to takeaways, INTs
and every metric of their opponents average drive (opponents
starting position, time,
plays, yards & points).
The
Bills are no slouches themselves, ranking in the top-3 in scoring
defense, yards allowed, passing yards, passing TDs and passing ypa.
The Patriots don’t turn it over, either, so the question really
comes down to whether the Bills can handle the bright lights of
Foxborough with the AFC East in the balance for the first time in
decades. Probably not.
*Los
Angeles Rams 8-6 (+6.5)
@ San Francisco 49ers 11-3
(45):
49ers
26-23
Saturday,
8:35
PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Cloudy; low 60s)
Keys: The
49ers completely blew it last week, both in their game v. the Atlanta
Falcons, but also in their retention of the NFC’s top seed (SEA).
They’ll be looking to get that back Saturday, but the Rams are
fighting for their playoff lives, so expect a battle in the normally
laid-back land of Central California. I hate it when people call the
South Bay Area “Northern California” because I’ve lived in both
areas, and it takes longer to get from SFO to Humboldt than it does
from Philadelphia to Boston. Everyone knows the deal with these two
teams, so will the QBs have time to throw it? Will the defenses make
the big play? The 49ers are one of the three best teams in the NFL,
both statistically and by the eye test; the Rams are mediocre
statistically, but jump off the paper, personnel-wise. Los Angeles is
capable of living up to the names on the jerseys, and have been much
improved since the acquisition of Jalen Ramsey, but they’re still
inconsistent and the 49ers have no weeks to waste, as banged up as
they are. * = LAR COVER
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather:
Indoors)
Keys: Can
I interest you in two 5-9 teams? I didn’t think so. The
Falcons should shred the Jaguars through the air and slow Leonard
Fournette down on the ground.
The future looks bright for Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens.
Baltimore
Ravens 12-2
(-7)
@
Cleveland Browns 6-8
(49):
Ravens
30-20
Sunday,
1:00
PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather:
Sunny;
mid
40s)
Keys: The
Ravens only have two losses on the season and one of them belongs to
these Bad News Browns. That loss was also in Baltimore. I don’t
care what Baker Mayfield has to prove. I don’t care if Landry Jones
wants to pretend OBJ isn’t the worst thing to ever happen to
Cleveland because they were actually getting somewhere before he
showed up. I don’t care if Freddie “Soup” Kitchens could
literally be working
at one next year so the Browns want to do everything they can to
salvage his season. The Ravens are going to kick the crap out of this
Browns team, keep the top AFC
seed and embarrass the Browns for
being one of their only blemishes on the season. Member
when the Ravens were once the Browns? I member. <Cue
Toto’s “Africa”>
Carolina
Panthers 5-9 (+6.5)
@ Indianapolis Colts 6-8
(46.5):
Colts
24-23
Keys:
Five
week ago these teams were 5-4, the Colts were still in control of
their destiny and the Panthers were trying to figure out how to
salvage their season after losing Cam Newton again to injury. Fast
forward to Week 16 and the Panthers have lost all five weeks, they
fired Ron Rivera and the Panthers have given up on 2019. The Colts
have gone from being in the division mix to losing their last three
games and essentially hoping they can get to 8-8 in a year when they
started as dark horse Super Bowl contenders just to see Andrew Luck
retire in the preseason and injuries ravage the team to
noncompetitive levels. But this is a site that analyzes games from a
betting
perspective, so 6.5 points? Come on, Carolina hasn’t given up that
much. Mediocre offense and poor defense (CAR),
meet mediocre defense and poor offense (IND).
Hey, at least the Panthers sack the QB (1st),
which is another reason this number makes no sense. Maybe it’s
because Kyle Allen is awful and the only thing the Colts do really
well is stop the run.
Cincinnati
Bengals 1-13
(+3)
@ Miami Dolphins 3-11
(45.5):
Dolphins 24-20
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather:
80%
storms; high
70s)
Keys: The
Formerly Known As The Tua But Now The Joe Borrow Bowl. Well, maybe.
The Dolphins would have to lose to these Bengals and then the New
England Patriots Week 17. Ummm, you be the judge of however this
outcome pans out.
Pittsburgh
Steelers 8-6 (-3)
@ New York Jets 5-9
(38.5):
Steelers
20-17
Sunday,
1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather:
Sunny; low 40s)
Keys:
The
Jets are really bad, while the Steelers are one
of the best defenses in the NFL. The Steelers are also in control
of their
own
playoff
destiny.
The Jets are the league’s top rushing defense, so the Streelers
could have trouble scoring on the Jets, but the Steelers defense is
suffocating, they lead the league in sacks and are 2nd
in takeaways. In other words, Sam Darnold is about to be under siege.
Drew Brees became the NFL's all-time leader in TD passes last week...for now.
New
Orleans Saints 11-3 (-1)
@ Tennessee Titans 8-6
(51):
Titans
28-27
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather:
20%
rain; low 50s)
Keys: It’s
probably going to rain and the Titans are are currently the 7th
seed, meaning the need many things to happen to make it into the
playoffs and/or win the AFC South, and it doesn’t include losing to
the Saints Week 16. If it doesn’t rain we might have a different
story, but even so, Brees isn’t exactly an outdoor cat.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather:
Sunny;
low
50s)
Keys: Much
like the CINvsMIA game, no one cares. Unlike
that game,
neither of
these teams
needs a franchise QB, so
there
isn’t even an entertaining tank to watch. The problem for the Giants is they’re on the road, rank 31st
in TOs and the Pigskins rank 10th
in takeaways. However,
the
Giants should also be able to stop the run because Adrian Peterson
could be a scratch. What an awful game.
Detroit
Lions 3-10-1 (+6.5)
@ Denver Broncos 5-9
(37.5):
Broncos
20-15
Sunday,
4:05
PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather:
Partly cloudy; mid
60s)
Keys: I
had too much faith in the Broncos and Drew Lock last week and my
over-zealousness and the driving snow conspired to make a fool out of
me. It only stands top reason the Broncos would be back home in
Colorado this week to balmy 60-degree temperatures. The weather is
getting harder to predict than these games, but don’t take my word
for it, not that you would anyway because scientists have been
warning us about climate change for 30 years. Wait. What were we
talking about? Oh
yeah, the NFL, which could be as dead as the Earth in another 30
years. I’m not so sure the Lions fans would care much...
*Oakland
Raiders 6-8 (+6.5)
@ Los Angeles Chargers 5-9
(47):
Chargers
24-17
Sunday,
4:05
PM, Stub Hub Field, Carson, CA (Weather:
60% rain;
low 60s)
Keys:
This
game wreaks of disappointment, from the way the Raiders lost their
last game at Oakland Coliseum, to the fact the Chargers can’t fill
their rented stadium, or sell any
tickets to new
their Los Angeles stadium, shared
with the Rams like the New York Jets are married to the New York
Giants. The
Raiders have nothing left to play for in 2019, they’re away for the
rest of the season and they’ll be missing some of their best
players, specifically RoY candidate Josh Jacobs. At first glance 6.5
points might seem ridiculous, but the Chargers are finally healthy,
the Raiders are certainly not, and truth be told, according to PFR’s
Expected W-L metric, the Chargers should be a full three full games
ahead of
the Raiders, not a game behind
them and
clearly Las Vegas agrees. * = OAK COVER
It's do-or-almost-die time for Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys.
Dallas
Cowboys 7-7
(-1)
@ *Philadelphia Eagles 7-7
(47.5):
Eagles
24-21
Sunday,
4:25
PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather:
Sunny;
mid-40s)
Keys: Speaking
of disappointments, these might be the two biggest disappointments in the NFL this
season. Regardless, one of these teams will win the NFC East, and it
could be with an 8-8 record, which is ridiculous for the amount of
collective talent between these two teams. You could almost field an
entire All-Star team between them, when healthy, and therein lies the
key. The Eagles are nearly beat to death, but then again, they’re
home, the Cowboys don’t have
to win, and Dallas just did won, which can only mean the Eagles will
likely pull the rabbit out of the hat and beat their third NFC East
opponent in a row to stay alive in 2019. * = PHI WINS
*Arizona
Cardinals 4-9-1
(+9.5)
@ Seattle Seahawks 11-3
(48.5):
Seahawks
27-23
Keys: The
Seahawks are the No.1 seed in the NFC, but who knows how long they’ll
last at the top of the NFC log jam. There’s an even smaller version
of Russell Wilson and it’s Kyler Murray, who might win the RoY
award, because one of the biggest threats to his award has been
injured (Josh
Jacobs).
Murray could break the rookie passing TD record, he’ll throw for
3,500 yards and rush for over 500 yards and will be responsible for
over 20 TDs; RoY-type
numbers. Well, Wilson has MVP-type
numbers (31
TOT TDs; 5 INTs)
and is single-handily leading a hyper-overachieving Seahawks team
into the playoffs, possibly with a first-round bye. Bottom line: The
Cardinals are 8-5-1 ATS and 9.5 points is too much. * = ARZ COVER
Sunday,
8:20 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Clear; high
30s)
Keys:
This
game comes down to a simple concept: One of the league’s most
dynamic offenses against one of the league’s best defenses. The
problem is the Chiefs have suddenly become a top-10 scoring defense
(Thanks
to Denver and the snow)
that also ranks 10th
in takeaways. That doesn’t bode well for a terrible Bears offense
that could find themselves trying to play catch up rather quickly if
the Chiefs exploit the Bears few weaknesses, which include pass
defense. There’s a reason the Chiefs are favored by four points on
the road against one of the best defenses in the NFL, and it has a
lot to do with reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes.
Monday,
8:15
PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
(Weather: Indoors)
Keys: If
the Packers win the game they’ll win the NFC North, but we all know
it can’t end that easy. Maybe it could, because the Vikings will
be without their star RB Dalvin Cook, but these bitter rivals play
much better at home; in fact, the Vikings haven’t lost at home yet
this season (6-0).
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are a different animal on the road, and
the Vikings can’t afford to lose. * = GB COVER
Stay tuned for Tuesday's Gone: Week 16 #NFL Game Reviews coming Tuesday pm!
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