This is a website dedicated to pro football, football betting & Phish. All website content property of Faulkner Media unless otherwise stated.

Wednesday, December 18, 2019

PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Tuesday's Gone: Week 15: #NFL Game Reviews

2019 NFL SEASON 
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Tuesday's Gone: Week 15: #NFL Game Reviews


2019 NFL SEASON WEEK 15: 
  6-10 .375 (WINS); 6-9-1 .400 (ATS); 12-4 .750 (O/U)
2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:
143-79-1 .644 (WINS); 120-97-6 .552 (ATS); 120-100-3 .545 (O/U)
WEEK 15 TOP 5 GAMES:
2-2-1  (.500)
TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:
43-23-3 (.652)
 
Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All images from Google with permission to reuse without license* Statistical sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider


NEW TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON
< Drake voice >
"TOP 5 TOP 5 TOP 5"
 
Pro Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week for either the spread OR O/U denoted by an asterisk (*). Roll with our Top 5 and watch the money pile up all season!


 Remember this guy? Yeah, no one in Baltimore does, either.



New York Jets 5-8 (+14.5) @ Baltimore Ravens 11-2 (45): Ravens 33-17 Ravens 42-21

Thursday, 8:20 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Clear; low 30s) 

Keys: The Ravens are arguably the best team in the NFL and the Jets are arguably the worst offense in the NFL (32nd ypp). Don’t be fooled by the Jets four wins in the last five weeks because three of those wins have come against the two-win New York Giants, the three-win Washington Pigskins and the three-win Miami Dolphins; that one loss came against the previously winless Cincinnati Bengals. The Jets saving grace, and the reason for most of their five wins, is their mediocre-to-decent defense that ranks anywhere from 18th (points allowed) to 7th (yards allowed) to 1st against the run. Therein lies the key, except the Jets could be without All-Pro safety Jamal Adams. Womp, womp. The Jets will also be without Le’Veon Bell, who will be bowling again, so you can kiss the Jets one-dimensional offense goodnight because Sam Darnold will have almost no chance against a Ravens defense that ranks in the top-10 in passing yards (9th), passing TDs (2nd), INTs (10th) and net yards per pass (7th). So the question really comes down to, Can the Jets slow the NFL’s top rushing attack enough to cover the 14.5 points? Unlikely if Adams doesn’t play, because Brains Poole (S) is already out and half the secondary is doubtful, but it is Thursday Night Football and Lamar Jackson still remains questionable on some injury reports.

I'll give you three guess who led the Ravens in both passing and rushing yards and the first two guesses don't count. Lamar Jackson (5 PTDs) has essentially sealed his MVP trophy, save a mercurial performance by Russell Wilson in the last two weeks, which isn't out of the realm of possibilities, but Jackson's numbers off the charts and Ravens are the No.1 AFC seed. Wait, that also describes Wilson. Did I mention Jackson broke Michael Vick's all-time QB rushing record. I'm not even a Baltimore fan and I love Lamar Jackson. Everything about him. I could talk about the Jets or the Ravens defense, but who cares? Lamar Jackson 2020.



New England Patriots 10-3 (-9.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals 1-12 (40.5): Patriots 23-13 Patriots 34-13
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Partly cloudy; high 30s)

Keys: The Patriots haven’t lost three games in a row in over 17 years. The Patriots also taped the Bengals sidelines so it’s a blowout, right? Either that or the NFL suspends Bill Belichick for life for filming the Bengals sidelines from the press box in front of everyone. Give me a break. These are two terrible offenses, but the Patriots defense remains the best in the NFL, their only blemish being rushing ypa (15th). It’s a tale of TOs with these teams, because the Patriots rank 2nd in takeaways and 3rd in TOs; the Bengals rank 28th and 30th, respectively, hence the records. 

Are we really going to analyze this previously-filmed debacle? <Homer Simpson backing into the bush meme>




*Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-7 (-3.5) @ Detroit Lions 3-9-1 (47.5): Bucs 27-20 Bucs 38-17

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)

Keys: As Jameis Winston approaches history and 5,000 passing yards the Bucs becomes spoilers, which suites them well. The Lions went from early season pretenders at 3-3-1 to likely looking for a new coach after losing six straight games, while the Bucs score 29.1 ppg on the one of the best passing games in the NFL, save the INTs (32nd). In fact, TOs (32nd) have killed the Bucs all season and their -0.2 ppg point differential not only makes them one of the worst defenses in the league, but subsequently the definition of mediocrity. The irony is the Bucs are 5th in the league in takeaways, but Winston usually gives it right back. The Lions are terrible without Matthew Stafford, who’s out again Sunday, but the Bucs will be without WR Mike Evans, so maybe the under is the play here. * = TB COVER

How can you not love Jameis Winston? Well, aside from the off-field stuff, which goes without saying, but football Jameis (4 PTDs; 1 INT) is a fascinating athlete and football player, almost in need of that first INT before he can take off. Winston now has 30 passing TDs and 24 INTs on the season, putting him in rare air as we discussed last week. He also did it without Mike Evans for the game and Chris Godwin for more than quarter, although Godwin ended up with 121 receiving yards. The day belonged to Breshad Perriman, who caught five of six targets for 113 receiving yards and 3 TDs. So long, Matt Patricia, I guess it's back to predicting the gravitational trajectory angle of satellites orbiting Europa. 



Chicago Bears 7-6 (+4.5) @ Green Bay Packers 10-3 (41.5): Packers 21-20 Packers 21-13
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Mostly sunny; low 20s) 
Keys: The long awaited rematch of the Week 1 games in which the Packers won 10-3 and everyone got confused into thinking the Packers were a great defense because they shut down Mitch(ell) Trubisky. How things have changed. Now nobody cares about the Packers bend-but-sometimes-break defense anymore and Trubisky has become a laughing stock. Now Aaron Rodgers (10th ranked QB according to Pro Football Focus) is contemplating retirement because he realizes he’s no longer the driving force for this 10-3 farce (7.5-5.5 Expected W-L according to Pro Football Reference). The Bears defense is banged up, and not particularly great against the pass, but are against the run, meaning they’ll likely shit Aaron Jones down and force Rodgers to beat them. Kahlil Mack must be salivating. The Bears offense also doesn’t turn it over (9th), which is good, because neither do the Packers (), but they still take it away, hence their three wins over expectation. As much as I want to take the Bears defense in a revenge match, the Packers and Rodgers have something annoyingly magical at Lambeau Field.

God these games are boring. It also feels like these NFC North teams play each other very week. Like, if I turned on the tv and saw GBvsCHI again Sunday I wouldn't even blink an eye. I would just watch Aaron Rodgers continue to have to worst body language since Jay Cutler, unless he's being an arrogant prick, which still looks terrible. Especially for a mediocre QB. Yes, I said it. Rodgers has one of the best RBs in the game and one of the top-5 WRs in the game, when healthy, which he is, yet the QB that entered the game ranked 10th according to PFF and then completed under 50% of his passes for 203 passing yards and one TD, despite only being hit four times, sacked once and having only three of his passes defensed. Tell me again how good these Packers and Aaron Rodgers are, I'll wait...
 


The Tennessee Titans have not been the same team since they replaced Marcus Mariota with Ryan Tannehill.


Houston Texans 8-5 (+3) @ Tennessee Titans 8-5 (50.5): Titans 27-23 Texans 24-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: 20% rain; low 50s)
Keys: Suddenly the Titans are the teams no one wants to face. Can you blame them? The Titans currently rank in the top-10 in scoring offense (10th) and defense (9th), TOs (9th) and takeaways (6th), and rushing (6th) and passing ypa (10th). Seems like a lifetime ago these Titans were 2-4 heading into Week 7 with Marcus Mariota at the helm. Derrick Henry’s annual second-half magic might be on hold Sunday, but the Texans have had trouble lately with explosive offenses and just so happens the Titans have become explosive lately. The Texans might be able to take advantage of some match ups with De’Andre Hopkins, but assuming the Titans switch it up and take Hopkins out of the game the Titans could all but clinch the AFC South Sunday.

Man, I'm sick of getting these games wrong by the skin of my teeth. The Texans had more TOs and fewer offensive yards yet was winning 24-14 with only a few minutes remaining in the game. Ugh.




*Denver Broncos 5-8 (+10.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs 9-4 (45.5): Broncos 23-20 23-3

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: 40% wintry mix; low 30s)

Keys: I not only have the Broncos covering Sunday, I have them winning. The Broncos have won three of their last five and the two losses have come at Minnesota and at Buffalo, two of the best defenses in the NFL. The Broncos, themselves, are one of the better defenses in the NFL, and they may have struck gold with rookie Drew Lock, now 2-0 in two starts, and just happens to have grown up in the Kansas City area. Patrick Mahomes is clearly not 100% and he just injured his throwing hand against the New England Patriots last week, and the only bad match up for Denver is Tyreek Hill, but the Broncos have elite safeties, so help is right around the corner. Look for the Broncos to stun the Chiefs, just like they did to the Houston Texans after their emotional win over the New England Patriots. * = DEN COVER

Cool, so 40% chance of snow turned into a blizzard that the Broncos somehow forgot how to play in, despite being the team from the state where it snows half the year. 




Miami Dolphins 3-10 (+3.5) @ New York Giants 2-11 (46.5): Dolphins 27-20 Giants 36-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; low 40s)
Keys: Meh. Only one of these teams needs a QB, and the Dolphins have proved they’re not trying to tank anything, so the hunt for Joe Borrow is not on tomorrow, but that doesn’t mean anyone will want to tune into this debacle outside of South Florida or the greater New York area. According to Pro Football Reference’s SRS metric (SoS/point differential equation) these are the 30th (NYG) and 32nd ranked (MIA) teams in the NFL. Perhaps Eli Manning gets a chance to bring the record back to .500, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is just that dude who comes in and beats you in a meaningless game towards the end of the season.

The Miami Dolphins are smarter than I thought. Brian Flores gave us the impression the Dolphins were actually trying, but they knew if they just played dead against the Giants and give Eli Manning his .500 record they'd have a better shot at the top draft pick, which isn't Tua anymore because he's a walking injury, and who cares if it's Joe Borrow, the most overrated potential top pick since people were arguing that Rick Mirer should be one. So...what was the point?




Philadelphia Eagles 6-7 (-4.5) @ Washington Pigskins 3-10 (40): Pigskins 21-20 Eagles 37-27

Sunday, 1:00 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather: Mostly Sunny; low 50s)

Keys: The Eagles need to win out to make the playoffs. Seems simple enough, right? Not really, especially after losing Alshon Jeffery for the season and maybe Lane Johnson for the week after both suffered injuries against the New York Giants last week. The Eagles have almost no remaining weapons besides Zach Ertz, but then again, Carson Wentz didn’t throw it to anyone else anyway. The truth is this mediocre Pigskins defense will have nothing to concentrate on but that match up, so the Eagles could be in trouble because Washington is 2-1 in their last three games and they just took the Packers to the brink in Green Bay. Considering the Eagles offense was mediocre when they still had Johnson and Jeffery doesn’t bode well going forward, especially against a Pigskins defense ranked 7th in sacks, 11th in passing yards allowed and 6th in takeaways, including 3rd in INTs (Philadelphia ranks 24th in INTs thrown).

The lesson here is no matter how bad the Eagles are, nothing can compare to how terrible Dan Snyder is. So upon reading the tea leaves, Snyder likely ordered the team to shit the bed so that they'd have another chance to screw up another top draft pick.
 


Russell Wilson is doing Russell Wilson things again in 2019 and have the Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl contenders almost on his own.


*Seattle Seahawks 10-3 (-6) @ Carolina Panthers 5-8 (48.5): Panthers 27-24 Seahawls 30-24

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Sunny; mid-50s)

Keys: The Panthers are an elite pass rush, a good pass defense as a result of that pass rush and an elite running team led by MVP candidate Run CMC. The Panthers aren’t much else. The Seahawks are nothing more than Russell Wilson and a ball-hawking defense (3rd takeaways), so what gives with the 5-win differential? Well, luck, as we’ve talked about all season, but that luck could run out facing the run-heavy Panthers on the east coast at what feels like 10 am for a Seahawks team ranked 25th in rushing yards allowed per attempt and 29th in rushing TDs allowed. * = CAR COVER

I was lucky to push and that's all I'm going to say about the most fraudulent top seed I can recall. This Seahawks team is about as bad as the Seahawks team that won the division at 7-9 a few years back. One thing goes wrong for Russell Wilson and Seattle can kiss their season goodbye just like the NFL kissed Josh Gordon's NFL career goodbye. Imagine a league that allows pain killers and cortisone shots like they're candy, but ruins lives over the very substance that could very well save the league from CTE issues. The NFL is a bunch of crooks, and if my passion for the game didn't surpass my hatred for NFL brass, you wouldn't even be reading these articles. In fact, this could very well be my final season. 




Jacksonville Jaguars 4-9 (+6.5) @ Oakland Raiders 6-7 (45.5): Raiders 23-21 Jaguars 20-16

Sunday, 4:05 PM, Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, CA (Weather: Sunny; mid-50s)

Keys: It was a promising season for the Raiders just a few weeks ago, but alas, the dream is dead in Oakland. The dream died long ago for the Jaguars after having their souls snatched by the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship two years ago. For the sake of integrity, the Jaguars cover, because even without DJ Chark, the Raiders have an Expected W-L record of 4-9 (PFR), an SRS rank of 27th and have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

Stop me if you've heard any of these statements before: The officials stole a game away from a team because of a terrible call that couldn't be reversed and/or the Oakland Raiders fucked up their final game at _____ stadium in ______ city. It's been real, Raiders Nation, but now you truly are a black hole.




Cleveland Browns 6-7 (-2.5) @ Arizona Cardinals 3-9-1 (48): Browns 27-23 Cardinals 38-24

Sunday, 4:05 PM, Univ. of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors) 

Keys: Speaking of promising seasons, no team has ever been lofted higher in the preseason before having achieved anything than these Cleveland Browns. Cleveland has actually pulled out four wins in their last five games, but starting the season 2-6 destroyed any hopes of a post season. To make matters worse, Baker Mayfield has regressed at a horrible rate, despite the recent wins, and the Browns could be without their best offensive player (OBJ) to defection and their best defensive player (Myles Garrett) to the most ridiculous and violent act anyone under the age of 50 has ever seen in an NFL game. This is either a game where the Browns can have success running the ball, the Browns passing attack can get back on track against one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL, or both, as the former sets up the latter. I’ve been on the Cardinals all year, but these Browns are angry and Arizona is just hapless enough for Cleveland to take it out on them.

I can't stop laughing at the Cleveland Browns, but especially Baker Mayfield and OBJ. I dare you to think of two more arrogant pro athletes that have eaten more crow than these two? There isn't enough popcorn in the world...




Minnesota Vikings 9-4 (-2.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers 5-8 (44.5): Vikings 24-20 Vikings 39-10
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Stub Hub Field, Carson, CA (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)
Keys: In researching the Patriots streak of not losing three games in a row these Vikings came up second of active teams with a streak lasting nearly three years. I had no idea. That doesn’t come into play here because the Vikings haven’t even lost two games in a row this season, and if not for the Green Bay Packers, would be running away with the NFC North division. The Chargers are an utter disappointment, rife with injuries, but are here to play spoiler as Minnesota battles for their division. The Vikings rank 7th in both scoring offense and defense and rank in the top-10 in both TOs (9th) and takeaways (7th), but the Chargers are no slouches themselves, ranking 8th in scoring defense and 4th in yards allowed; the Chargers even rank 10th in yards gained. In fact, only 0.1 ppg separates these two scoring defenses. The biggest difference? The TO battle, which the Chargers lose badly (24th TOs; 30th takeaways). Therein lies the difference, and if Philip Rivers keeps throwing it to the other team (28th INTs) these Vikings will make short work of them. 

If I had a nickle for every expert that said this was a trap game for the Vikings because "they were playing on natural grass" I'd have about $1.35. 

One or both of these guys needs to get it together quickly if they want to slavage the Dallas Cowboys season.

*Los Angeles Rams 8-5 (-1) @ Dallas Cowboys 6-7 (49): Rams 27-24 Cowboys 44-21
Sunday, 4:25 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Ahh, the old Expected W-L metric I keep coming back to. The Cowboys Expected W-L record is 8.2-4.8. What do you know? There’s no denying the Cowboys are better than their 6-7 record, at least statistically, but that’s the problem; something doesn’t add up. You could blame the coaching for not having the team better prepared and not handling the players a little better, but the bottom line is the Cowboys don’t take the ball away (26th) and they let teams run on them too much (19th rushing yards allowed; 22nd RTDs allowed). Dak Prescott, for as well as he plays, throws too many INTs (18th), which aids in the Cowboys ending 11.5% of their drives in a TO (19th). On the other side the Rams seemed to have found their ground again, no pun intended, but have now rattled off three wins in four weeks, including a big win over the Seattle Seahawks last week. All of a sudden the reigning NFC Champions-turned-mediocre Rams are back in business and only three games back from the division lead and two games behind the Seahawks with three games to go, including one against the San Francisco 49ers, after being left for dead just a few weeks ago. The Rams also get after the QB (4th sacks), which could be a problem for this hobbled Cowboys offensive line. The opening line to this game was Cowboys -4 and that was immediately bet to a PK within 48 hours. By the time I researched the game it had already settled on Rams -1. That means nobody sees the Cowboys getting their act together, at least not this week, with a desperate Rams team doing everything they can to stay in the hunt in a loaded NFC. * = LAR COVER

It stands to reason the moment everyone gets back on the Rams bandwagon and writes off the Cowboys for dead the Rams lay an egg and the Cowboys look like Super Bowl contenders. This is one maddening league to gamble on.



Atlanta Falcons 4-9 (+11) @ San Francisco 49ers 11-2 (47): 49ers 33-20 Falcons 29-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Sunny; mid-50s)
Keys: I would imagine Kyle Shanahan has something for his old team, which at the very least would be abandoning obvious traits and signals or anything that would tip the Falcons and Matt Ryan off. Meanwhile, Shanahan knows all of Dan Quinn’s defensive habits, and I think it’s fair to say Shanahan is the more cerebral coach in this match up, with all due respect to Quinn, who I’m pretty sure is my friend Barry’s twin brother separated at birth. I digress. Do we even have to do this? The 49ers are better on every level except the passing game because it’s a hard to beat 3rd (ATL passing yards) and even harder to beat 1st(ATL pass attempts). If you split the difference between the Falcons ppg and the 49ers points allowed per game and stack it against the 49ers ppg you get 10.15 points. What do you know, the spread is 11 points. Sometimes betting math is so complicated I can’t even decipher it; sometimes I wonder if these people are just averaging numbers.

The 49ers were the NFC's top seed while leading the Falcons 22-17 with 1:48 left in the game. 1:48 later the 49ers were on the losing end of the game to the team that used to employ their head coach and were the second seed in the NFC. That's one hell of a two-minute drill.


*Buffalo Bills 9-4 (+2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 8-5 (36.5): Bills 20-17
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: 30% snow; high 30s)
Keys: Maybe the reason the Bills are 5-1 on the road this year is because three of their road games were within a few hours drive and two were at Meadowlands Stadium in NJ in consecutive weeks. OK, their only road loss was their closest road game at Cleveland, but let my argument stand. Guess where their latest “road” game is? A quick 3.25-hour drive south to Pittsburgh. If you like defense this is you game because both rank in the top-6 in both scoring defense and yards allowed and yards per play and are ranked in the top-10 in a host of other important defensive metrics, including sacks. In fact, the Steelers lead the league in sacks and TOs. The big difference here is the Bills are one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL and are like a poor man’s Baltimore Ravens, which beat both these teams, but both the Bills and Steelers gave the Ravens trouble (BAL beat PIT in OT). What I’m trying to say is that style can beat the Steelers, but it won’t be easy. * = BUF COVER

Pittsburgh turned the ball over five times and the Bills still only won 17-10, so don't expect Buffalo to do anything once they make the playoffs against teams that can actually score points. The Steelers are in the same boat, because even if they make the playoffs, they're not scoring on anybody. 




Indianapolis Colts 6-7 (+9) @ New Orleans Saints 10-3 (46): Saints 30-20
Monday, 8:15 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: It’s likely curtains for the Colts, who just a few weeks ago were the favorites to win the AFC South. Insert Ryan Tannehill into the Tennessee Titans and so much for that. It’s unfortunate because the Colts were one of the better running teams in the league before the injury to Marlon Mack, the defense was playing great all with Jacoby Brissett after the sudden retirement of Andrew Luck. Did I mention HOF kicker Adam Vinatieri, now on IR, probably cost them four games this season with his horrible kicking? Many teams can say they lost a few games this season to bad kicking; no team can claim what the Colts can. The Saints, on the other hand, won five games without their star QB Drew Brees, and are the mix for the first round bye with several other teams (GB; MIN; SEA; SF). The Saints are statistically that much better than the Colts, but they aren’t missing key pieces like the Colts are, they’re home in the hardest indoor stadium to play in and the Saints don’t turn the ball over (1st TOs). That’s a recipe for the end of the Colts 2019 season, albeit a respectable one.

Drew Brees broke the all-time TD pass record held by Peyton Manning Monday Night. It will be a joyous week until Tom Brady breaks it Sunday. And then we get to watch two 40+-year old QBs battle for TD supremacy in a league where you can't even touch the QB anymore. Everyone must be so proud.  




Stay tuned for Week 16: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) coming Friday!


 











ProFootballMedia.com
@profootballmed

 

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.