PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Week 21: #NFL Game Prediction (w/ the spread & analysis) SUPER BOWL LIV EDITION

2019 NFL SEASON 

P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A

Week 21:  #NFL Game Prediction (w/ the spread & analysis)
SUPER BOWL LIV EDITION

2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:

165-89-1 .650 (WINS); 137-110-8 .555 (ATS); 134-115-6 .538 (O/U)

TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:

48-23-3 (.676)

2020 NFL PLAYOFFS
 4-6 .400 (WINS); 4-6 .400 (ATS); 3-7 .300 (O/U)

 

Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): EWL (Expected W-L record); SoS (Strength of Schedule); SRS (Simple Rating System from PFR); Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 1st downs (1st); 3^rd-down efficiency (3^rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); P/R NY/A (Pass/Rush Net yards/attempt); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All images from Google with permission to reuse without license or they are credited with source* Statistical sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider

NEW TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON

< Drake voice >

"TOP 5 TOP 5 TOP 5"

 

Pro Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week for either the spread OR O/U denoted by an asterisk (*). Roll with our Top 5 and watch the money pile up all season!

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs were a Dee Ford offsides call away from Super Bowl LIII, so they've been chomping at the bit to get to Super Bowl LIV and prove they're the NFL's next dynasty. (Image credit: Chiefs.com)

San Francisco 49ers (1) 13-3 (+1.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (2) 12-4 (53.5):  Chiefs 33-30 

Keys: This is one of the best and closest Super Bowl match-ups in years: The classic explosive dynamic offense (KC) v. the quick and devastating defense (SF). It's far more complex than that. In the 28 regular season metrics I analyzed, from Expected W-L record, to Simple Rating System, to YPP, to (P/R)NY/A, to Red Zone efficiency, to time of possession (TOP), these teams ranked in the top-10 and within four rankings of each other in 20 of 28 statistical categories. That's incredible. Expected W-L record: 11.4-4.6 (KC) to 11.8-4.2 (SF). Nearly identical SoS by statistical standards, and completely average (SF: 0.41; KC: 0.20). In four major metrics (PA; PNY/A; DefPEN & Offensive Red Zone efficiency) the Chiefs and 49ers were ranked consecutively at the end of the regular season. Even in their two playoffs games in the divisional and championship rounds the two team's point differential was within three points (SF: +34; KC: +31). The offenses are eerily similar, statistically, although they couldn't look more different on the field for most of the time, considering how fast and dynamic the Chiefs offense is. The same could be said about the two defenses, statistically, but it's clear to everyone with two eyes, a brain, and some feel for the game of football that the 49ers are the superior defense. The crazy thing is, even in areas where the two teams seem "far apart", e.g. sacks or INTs, the difference in defensive sacks ranking (SF: 5th; KC: 11th) is only three sacks; the difference in defensive INTs ranking (KC: 5th; SF: 17th) is only four INTs. There's a reason this game has been bet down from three points to a Pick 'Em in some markets. I have a theory. The 49ers secondary is good, but their elite defensive players are up front and are some of the fastest defenders in the NFL. So the 49ers LBs and front four will essentially neutralize the Chiefs running game, and likely even Travis Kelce. That's not to say the Chiefs elite offensive tackles won't be able to fend off the 49ers elite pass rush, but with play action essentially taken away from the 49ers, because I predict they'll shut the Chiefs running game down, Patrick Mahomes will simply scramble to the left or right, and throw 30-yard seeds to Tyreek Hill et al, who will dust the slower 49ers secondary. The 49ers LBs will be too busy defending Kelce and spying Mahomes to drop back in coverage, and even if they do, they're not fast enough to stay with the Chiefs WRs. The 49ers offense should have no problem scoring on the Kansas City defense, probably to the tune of 27-31 points; that probably won't be enough to overcome the 30-35 points the Chiefs will likely score. One thing to look out for is Chris Jones v. the 49ers back-up center, who is a run-blocking specialist. If the 49ers go run-heavy, perhaps that match-up gets neutralized to some degree, but if Jones is successful in rushing the QB, Jimmy G could be on the run, meaning the 49ers could be closer to the 24-28 point range, unless that opens George Kittle for a monster game. Don't get me wrong, the 49ers are the cream of the NFL, but the Chiefs have showed us the past few week just how deadly they can be. The heart wants the San Fransisco 49ers due to my California ties and the fact Jimmy Garoppolo should have been the New England Patriots QB for the next 10-12 years, but my money is on Patrick Mahomes and the rest of his Muppets. If Andy Reid wins, will they throw Kool-Aid on him? Oh yeah!!!

Stay tuned for Tuesday's Gone: Week 21 #NFL Game Reviews SUPER BOWL LIV EDITION coming Wednesday!

 

ProFootballMedia.com
@profootballmed

PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Tuesday's Gone: Week 20 #NFL Game Reviews CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND EDITION

2019 NFL SEASON 

P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A

Tuesday's Gone: Week 20  #NFL Game Reviews
CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND EDITION

2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:

165-89-1 .650 (WINS); 137-110-8 .555 (ATS); 134-115-6 .538 (O/U)

TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:

48-23-3 (.676)

2020 NFL PLAYOFFS
 4-6 .400 (WINS); 4-6 .400 (ATS); 3-7 .300 (O/U)

 

Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3^rd-down efficiency (3^rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All images from Google with permission to reuse without license* Statistical sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider

NEW TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON

< Drake voice >

"TOP 5 TOP 5 TOP 5"

 

Pro Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week for either the spread OR O/U denoted by an asterisk (*). Roll with our Top 5 and watch the money pile up all season!

 Kermit was feeling himself after his WRs finally started catching balls, but he can't stop Derrick Henry. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)

Tennessee Titans (6) 9-7 (+7) @ Kansas City Chiefs (2) 12-4 (53): Chiefs 31-27 Chiefs 35-24

Sunday, 3:05 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Mostly Sunny; mid-20s)

Keys: There's something to be said about six playoff games in a row with a spread greater than 4.5 points. In other words, Las Vegas doesn't see any of these games as close. The aforementioned 4.5 points was afforded the Seattle Seahawks, and that's because the Seahawks and Green Bay Packers were the most overrated teams coming into the playoffs, so Green Bay got the customary 3.5-4 points just for having a real home-field advantage. Besides that the spreads have been in the 7-10 point range, which is a blowout by NFL standards. The match-up everyone is paying attention to is Derrick Henry v. a Chiefs run defense that's not only overrated, but could be missing Chris Jones, again, which would be devastating. Some reports say he injured himself in practice, right at the end; some reports say he injured himself playing basketball at the facility. If it's the latter let's chalk it up to another Andy Reid failure. What's your top defensive lineman and best run stopper doing playing anything other than "walk through" at this crucial a time during the season? The Chiefs can't afford to go down 24-0 v. these Titans because they'll literally run them out of Arrowhead Stadium. However, the Titans aren't exactly crisp against the pass, and Patrick Mahomes has proven at every level he can chuck it with the best of them. This is also a Titans team that shut down Tom Brady, which turns out probably wasn't a big feat, and Lamar Jackson, who looked anything but sharp throwing the ball v. Tennessee. Be on the lookout for TOs, too, because both teams rank 10th in takeaways, but don't strain yourself looking because these teams rank 3rd (KC) and 7th (TEN), respectively, in TOs. Some might think Henry can't possibly run for close to 200 yards for a fourth straight week, but did you think it was happening for three straight weeks to get into the playoffs and through the Wild Card and Divisional rounds? I didn't think so. Chris Jones has never been more important in his life, but the game rides just as much on the shoulders of the New England Patriots secondary, err, I mean the Titans secondary. 

Stop me if you've heard this before: The Chiefs were down big at one point in the first half and stormed back to decimate their opponent. It was a TO-free AFC Championship with nearly dead-even TOP, yet the Chiefs led 35-17 with 7:33 left in the game. The Titans train finally slowed, specifically conductor Derrick Henry, who was held to 69 yards on 19 carries, and before you ask why they didn't just feed the King, I refer you to the 35-17 halfway through the 4Q part. Patrick Mahomes is just too much to deal with combined with the Kansas City speed on offense, and when you add 27-yard TD scampers weaving through good defenses to the repertoire, Mahomes and this Chiefs offense is going to be a handful in Super Bowl LIV, even for the mighty 49ers.
 

 If someone has a 4.5:1 career TD:INT ratio, but only one Super Bowl appearance in 14 years to show for it, does it make a noise?

Green Bay Packers (2) 13-3 (+7.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (1) 13-3 (46): 49ers 28-20 49ers 37-20

Sunday, 6:40 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Cloudy; low 50s)

Keys: To put it simply, this match-up features the most overrated team left in the playoffs v. the best team left in the playoffs, and unless you're from Wisconsin you know which teams belongs where. This just isn't a good match-up for the Packers, and the last time these teams played the shorthanded 49ers made an example out of the Packers, despite both teams fighting for the NFC crown Week 12. The Packers aren't in the same class as the 49ers, and San Fransisco can get to Aaron Rodgers, although the 5th-ranked 49ers only sacked seven more QBs than the 15th-ranked Packers. The Packers defense is overrated; the 49ers ranks 2nd overall. The Packers running game is overrated; the 49ers rank 2nd overall. The Packers could be the first team in NFL history to be out-gained on the season and still be playing in a conference championship; the 49ers rank 2nd in defensive yards allowed and 4th in offensive yards gained. The 49ers also have depth in spades, while the Packers, well, don't. When Rodgers snarkily says "I guess we're just smoke and mirrors", he's telling the truth, whether his arrogance allows him to realize it or not. The Packers have no business even being here, so that can only mean they'll probably cover or even win. Just kidding, they should get demolished. I wish I could say the same thing about...never mind.  

The Packers out-gained the 49ers, had more first downs and held the ball longer, yet were down 27-0 at the half. Such is life for a drastically overrated team fresh off the fruits of their not-so-laborious 13-3 season. That's largely because Mr. 4.5:1 TD:INT threw a subpar 1:1 Sunday, while the 49ers defense sacked Aaron Rodgers three times. It's not like Jimmy Garoppolo stole the show - he was 6-8 for 77 yards - the day simply belonged to Raheem Mostert, who ran for a record 220 yards and four TDs on 29 carries (7.6 ypc), as well as the 49ers defense, who held the Packers to seven points through the 3Q, when the game was all but over at 34-7. State Farm didn't get their way for Super Bowl LIV; no Rodgers v. Mahomes nonsense for two straight weeks. Look on the bright side, at least it's evidence Super Bowl LIV isn't rigged. Well, I suppose...never mind. 

Stay tuned for Week 21: #NFL Game Prediction (w/ the spread & analysis) SUPER BOWL LIV EDITION coming Friday!

 

ProFootballMedia.com
@profootballmed

PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Week 20: #NFL Game Predictions (w/spreads & analysis) CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND EDITION

2019 NFL SEASON 

P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A

Week 20:  #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND EDITION

2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:

165-89-1 .650 (WINS); 137-110-8 .555 (ATS); 134-115-6 .538 (O/U)

TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:

48-23-3 (.676)

2020 NFL PLAYOFFS
 2-6 .250 (WINS); 3-5 .375 (ATS); 1-7 .125 (O/U)

 

Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3^rd-down efficiency (3^rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All images from Google with permission to reuse without license* Statistical sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider

NEW TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON

< Drake voice >

"TOP 5 TOP 5 TOP 5"

 

Pro Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week for either the spread OR O/U denoted by an asterisk (*). Roll with our Top 5 and watch the money pile up all season!

 Kermit was feeling himself after his WRs finally started catching balls, but he can't stop Derrick Henry. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)

Tennessee Titans (6) 9-7 (+7) @ Kansas City Chiefs (2) 12-4 (53): Chiefs 31-27

Sunday, 3:05 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Mostly Sunny; mid-20s)

Keys: There's something to be said about six playoff games in a row with a spread greater than 4.5 points. In other words, Las Vegas doesn't see any of these games as close. The aforementioned 4.5 points was afforded the Seattle Seahawks, and that's because the Seahawks and Green Bay Packers were the most overrated teams coming into the playoffs, so Green Bay got the customary 3.5-4 points just for having a real home-field advantage. Besides that the spreads have been in the 7-10 point range, which is a blowout by NFL standards. The match-up everyone is paying attention to is Derrick Henry v. a Chiefs run defense that's not only overrated, but could be missing Chris Jones, again, which would be devastating. Some reports say he injured himself in practice, right at the end; some reports say he injured himself playing basketball at the facility. If it's the latter let's chalk it up to another Andy Reid failure. What's your top defensive lineman and best run stopper doing playing anything other than "walk through" at this crucial a time during the season? The Chiefs can't afford to go down 24-0 v. these Titans because they'll literally run them out of Arrowhead Stadium. However, the Titans aren't exactly crisp against the pass, and Patrick Mahomes has proven at every level he can chuck it with the best of them. This is also a Titans team that shut down Tom Brady, which turns out probably wasn't a big feat, and Lamar Jackson, who looked anything but sharp throwing the ball v. Tennessee. Be on the lookout for TOs, too, because both teams rank 10th in takeaways, but don't strain yourself looking because these teams rank 3rd (KC) and 7th (TEN), respectively, in TOs. Some might think Henry can't possibly run for close to 200 yards for a fourth straight week, but did you think it was happening for three straight weeks to get into the playoffs and through the Wild Card and Divisional rounds? I didn't think so. Chris Jones has never been more important in his life, but the game rides just as much on the shoulders of the New England Patriots secondary, err, I mean the Titans secondary. 

 If someone has a 4.5:1 career TD:INT ratio, but only one Super Bowl appearance in 14 years to show for it, does it make a noise?

Green Bay Packers (2) 13-3 (+7.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (1) 13-3 (46): 49ers 28-20

Sunday, 6:40 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Cloudy; low 50s)

Keys: To put it simply, this match-up features the most overrated team left in the playoffs v. the best team left in the playoffs, and unless you're from Wisconsin you know which teams belongs where. This just isn't a good match-up for the Packers, and the last time these teams played the shorthanded 49ers made an example out of the Packers, despite both teams fighting for the NFC crown Week 12. The Packers aren't in the same class as the 49ers, and San Fransisco can get to Aaron Rodgers, although the 5th-ranked 49ers only sacked seven more QBs than the 15th-ranked Packers. The Packers defense is overrated; the 49ers ranks 2nd overall. The Packers running game is overrated; the 49ers rank 2nd overall. The Packers could be the first team in NFL history to be out-gained on the season and still be playing in a conference championship; the 49ers rank 2nd in defensive yards allowed and 4th in offensive yards gained. The 49ers also have depth in spades, while the Packers, well, don't. When Rodgers snarkily says "I guess we're just smoke and mirrors", he's telling the truth, whether his arrogance allows him to realize it or not. The Packers have no business even being here, so that can only mean they'll probably cover or even win. Just kidding, they should get demolished. I wish I could say the same thing about...never mind. 

Stay tuned for Tuesday's Gone: Week 20 #NFL Game Reviews CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND EDITION coming Friday!

 

ProFootballMedia.com
@profootballmed

Week 19: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) DIVISIONAL ROUND EDITION

2019 NFL SEASON 

P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A

Week 19:  #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
DIVISIONAL ROUND EDITION

2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:

165-89-1 .650 (WINS); 137-110-8 .555 (ATS); 134-115-6 .538 (O/U)

TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:

48-23-3 (.676)

2020 NFL PLAYOFFS
 0-4 .000 (WINS); 2-2 .500 (ATS); 0-4 .000 (O/U)

 

Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3^rd-down efficiency (3^rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All images from Google with permission to reuse without license* Statistical sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider

NEW TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON

< Drake voice >

"TOP 5 TOP 5 TOP 5"

 

Pro Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week for either the spread OR O/U denoted by an asterisk (*). Roll with our Top 5 and watch the money pile up all season!

 Anthony Barr will need to step it up if he's going to help the Vikings beat the mighty 49ers at home.

Minnesota Vikings (6) 10-6 (+7) @ San Francisco 49ers (1) 13-3 (44.5): 49ers 27-21

Saturday, 4:35 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Clearing; mid-50s)

Keys: How do I put this? The 49ers are better on every single level. Offense. Defense. Special teams. Coaching. In fact, Kyle Shanahan used to be Kirk Cousin’s coach. You like that? In fact, the only area the Vikings even compete with the 49ers in is pass rush: Both teams rank 5^th with 48 sacks on the season. One might think these defenses rank out similarly, but not when we take into account SoS, in which the 49ers was nearly twice as difficult. Now, I’m clearly no expert, having gone 0-4 last week and only 2-2 ATS, but there’s not that much to dissect with this game. The Vikings roll into San Francisco halfway across the country with a defense not quite as stout as it once was and two stars on offense that aren’t 100% (Dalvin Cook; Adam Thielen). The 49ers roll out of fresh bed fresh as a daisy with the highest rated player in the NFL according to PFF (George Kittle) and the most depth at RB of any team in the league. Seven points is a lot to lay in any NFL game, especially a playoff game, and especially to a team coming off a playoff win by a team that hasn’t played in two weeks, but the 49ers winning is likely a foregone conclusion. 

 

The question on everyone's mind is whether or not likely 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson can not only handle the rain, but the long rest.

 

Tennessee Titans (6) 9-7 (+9.5) @ Baltimore Ravens (1) 14-2 (47): Ravens 28-20

Saturday, 8:15 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: 70% rain; low 60s) 

Keys: Can the Titans slay two giants back-to-back? Well, the Patriots were largely overrated giants this season and the Ravens haven’t played meaningful football in nearly three weeks. That could be trouble, because not only is Baltimore relying on a well-oiled machine, some of the parts are broken and might not be repaired by Sunday (Mark Ingram; Mark Andrews). The Titans might seem like the dark horse favorite here, but their offense, one of the best in the NFL the second half of the season, was held to 14 against the Patriots on Ryan Tannehill’s 72 passing yards; Derrick Henry’s 182-yard performance was allowed by Bill Belichick so he could focus on the Titans air attack, which was stifled. The Ravens rank out as one of the better teams in the past few decades, let alone this season, but things could be much different with a sizable break, pouring rain and key pieces missing; losing Ingram could be devastating. The Ravens have locked down opposing passing games since they traded for Marcus Peters, so it’ll be up to Henry again, although the Ravens largely lock that down, too, ranking in the top-10 in attempts, yards and TDs (21^st YPA, however). The bottom line is the Ravens likely win due to their suffocating defense and home field advantage, and the fact that their scoring and yardage offense and scoring and yardage defense rank an eye-pleasing 1^st, 2^nd, 3^rd and 4^th, but like we talked about with the MINvsSF game, 9.5 points is a crazy amount, especially under these weather and rest conditions. Mortgage on the Titans time? 

 

Will he screw it up?

 

Houston Texans (4) 10-6 (+9.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (2) 12-4 (51): Chiefs 31-23

Sunday, 3:05 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Mostly Sunny; high 30s)

Keys: The Texans narrowly escaped with a win in the Wild Card Round, mounting one of the largest playoff comebacks in NFL history against the Buffalo Bills, but as impressive as that is, the Bills offense isn’t the Chiefs offense and New Era Stadium isn’t Arrowhead Stadium. Josh Allen also isn’t Patrick Mahomes, but Deshaun Watson is. In fact, the two QBs, taken two spots from each other in the 2017 NFL draft, is arguably more dynamic than Mahomes, although no one is arguing who has the better arm talent. In addition, both QBs have struggled relatively this season, whether via injury or lack of support. Coaching plays a large role, too, as both coaches have famously fumbled away home playoff games. The Chiefs have an elite passing game, and believe it or not, a quasi-elite passing defense. The Chiefs also rank 11^th with 45 sacks. The Texans are none of these things. Much like Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks, the Texans are too Watson reliant, which is ironic considering NRG Stadium used to be called Reliant Stadium, and this Chiefs defense is good enough to stifle Watson, and, therefore, the Texans. However, I hate these large point spreads and even this match up isn’t lopsided enough to warrant nearly 10 points. 

 

It's Russell Wislon or bust for the Seattle Seahawks, but what else is new since the fall of the Legion of Boom?

 

Seattle Seahawks (5) 11-5 (+4.5) @ Green Bay Packers (2) 13-3 (46.5): Seahawks 23-21

Sunday, 6:40 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Wintry mix; high 20s) 

Keys: Introducing the two most overrated teams in the NFL. We’ve talked all year about the Seahawks mediocrity disguised by Russell Wilson’s polish, but before you go thinking I’m about to write the same thing about Green Bay, think again. The Packers might have won the same amount of games with Alex Smith because Aaron Rodgers has become the most glorified game manager since 2001-2003 Tom Brady. But Aaron Rodgers doesn’t throw any INTs! Right, because he doesn’t take any chances. It’s hard to throw INTs when you never take risks. If you think I’m kidding look no further than the Packers middle-of-the-pack offense, which is anchored by that middle-of-the-road passing game (17^th ATS; 16th YDS; 14^th TDs; 16^th YPA). The running game is literally no better, ranking almost identically across the board, despite Aaron Jones, a nearly 1,100-yard rusher with 16 TDs on the season. No, the Packers owe most of their season to a decent defense (9th ranked scoring defense) and one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. Even so, Green Bay’s Expected W-L Record was 9.7-6.3, which would have been good enough for a six-seed, not one of the two byes awarded the NFC. Hey, at least it’s better than Seattle’s Expected W-L Record of 8.2-7.8, which means, technically, the Seahawks should’ve missed the playoffs completely. However, you can ask Billy Beane about the numbers – they don’t always tell the whole story, hence the Seahawks v. the Packers in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. Don’t be fooled by the Seahawks defensive performance against Josh McCown, because they’ve been mostly abysmal, but we just talked about the Packers offense in the same light. So what gives? At this point in 2020 I’m not betting on Rodgers anymore, but I'm certainly not betting against Russell Wilson and it’s about as simple as that. Like a “pack of badgers”, what ever the hell that mix of Wilson’s college teams is supposed to mean. Maybe it means it’ll feel like a home game for Wilson, which only supports my assertions.

Stay tuned for Tuesday's Gone: Week 19 #NFL Game Reviews DIVISIONAL ROUND EDITION coming Wednesday!

 

ProFootballMedia.com
@profootballmed

Week 18: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) WILD CARD ROUND EDITION

2019 NFL SEASON 

P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A

Week 18:  #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
WILD CARD ROUND EDITION

2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:

165-89-1 .650 (WINS); 137-110-8 .555 (ATS); 134-115-6 .538 (O/U)

TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:

48-23-3 (.676)

 

Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3^rd-down efficiency (3^rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All images from Google with permission to reuse without license* Statistical sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider

NEW TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON

< Drake voice >

"TOP 5 TOP 5 TOP 5"

 

Pro Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week for either the spread OR O/U denoted by an asterisk (*). Roll with our Top 5 and watch the money pile up all season!

 Deshaun Watson hasn't fared as well in the NFL playoffs as he did at Clemson, but he gets another chance Saturday.

Buffalo Bills (5) 10-6 (+2.5) @ Houston Texans 10-6 (4) (44): Bills 26-20

Saturday, 4:35 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)

Keys: The Texans are one of the most average teams in the playoffs, as evidenced by their poor metrics outside of rushing the ball and an Expected W-L Record of 8-8 according to Pro Football Reference. Yet, the same statisticians rank the Texans 12th via their SRS metric (0.52), and the Bills, with an Expected W-L Record of 10-6 and far better metrics, especially defensively, only rank 13th. Any advantages one might afford the Texans at home indoors should be equally, if not more, applicable to the Bills, who have put up average offensive numbers despite only playing two games outside of the northeast since November (MIA; DAL). This Bills defense is nasty, and the turf grass is only going to make them faster, as well as their offense. Not to mention, the Bills are a little healthier. If Deshaun Watson can’t put the Texans on his shoulders and have one of his better games of the year Buffalo could pull off the upset and face a too-well-rested Ravens team they came within one score of tying/beating a few weeks and then a Patriots team they’ve already faced. Then they’re in the Super Bowl for the first time in 30 years. 

 It could be curtains for The Golden Boy, but don't count these Patriots out yet.

Tennessee Titans (6) 9-7 (+5) @ New England Patriots (3) 12-4 (44.5): Patriots 24-21

Saturday, 8:15 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: 80% rain; mid-40s)

Keys: Let’s face it, the Titans are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, winners of seven of their last ten since Ryan Tannehill took over. In fact, Tannehill led the league in passer rating for qualified QBs (117.5), setting the 4^th highest mark since they started keeping the PR statistic. It’s also worth noting the Titans haven’t played an actual defense since Tannehill took over, however. Yet, Titans also have the league’s leading rusher in Derrick Henry and a WR with the highest ypc of any WR with at least 50 receptions (20.2 ypr); did I mention he’s also a rookie? That rookie will likely be lined against Stephon Gilmore, who had his worst game of the season in Week 17 or these teams wouldn’t even be facing each other in the Wild Card Round. Does that mean Gilmore shows out and shuts down Brown, forcing the Titans to run heavy? Would it matter? The Patriots supposedly historic defense has feasted off the NFL’s easiest schedule all season, while just happening to be worst at stopping the run then anything defensively (14th ypa allowed). It boils down to Gillette, the heavy rain, and whether or not these Patriots and their fans are willing to say goodbye. If the Patriots lose, the dynasty could officially be ovah, but with a little help from the weather, a fan base that can pretend not to be spoiled for a change and some familiarity with Tannehill from Bill Belichick’s 11 games v. him with the Miami Dolphins, the Patriots actually stand a chance. Yeah, I said it. A chance.

 Drew Brees broke the all-time passing TD record this season, but he'd really like to go out with another Super Bowl trophy.

Minnesota Vikings (6) 10-6 (+7.5) @ New Orleans Saints (3) 13-3 (49.5): Saints 27-23

Sunday, 1:05 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)

Keys: The Vikings struggle on the road, Kirk Cousins threw four of his (only) six INTs on the road, Dalvin Cook has missed a lot of time and the Vikings tend to shrink under the bright lights. Even if Cook was 100% the Saints excel at stopping the run. However, when we pull back the curtain using some of the metrics we’ve used all year (EW-LR; SRS) we see that the Vikings are right we’re they’re supposed to be at 10-6, and rank 6^th in SRS. The Saints, however, grade out the same at 10-6, yet won three more games than expected. They also rank just one spot higher in SRS, meaning on a neutral field they’d likely come close to tying. The Saints also play in the NFC South and played Jacksonville and Arizona, so despite the preseason SoS metrics one could argue Minnesota played the tougher schedule. So why the 7.5-point spread? Because Kirk Cousins is as inconsistent as any QB making more than $20M/year not named Eli Manning or Nick Foles, the Vikings great pass defense is coming in with a banged-up secondary and the Superdome is nearly impossible to get a rhythm, hurry up, audible or even hear yourself in if you’re the opposing offense. This game will likely come down to either team’s elite pass rush and/or a key TO, as both defenses sack the QB (NO: 3^rd; MIN: 5^th) and take the ball away (MIN: 4^th; NO: 10^th), but the Saints led the league in fewest TOs, so that might narrow things down. I wonder if they’ve factored in the officials yet, though, because it’s that time of year.

If the Seattle Seahawks are going to advance past the Wild Card Round it's going to take another mercurial performance from Russell Wilson.

Seattle Seahawks (5) 11-5 (-1.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (6) 9-7 (47): Eagles 23-21

Sunday, 4:40 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: 50% rain; mid-50s)

Keys: The Eagles don’t stand much of a chance here unless they’re able to shut down Russell Wilson. Seems like a simple enough plan, but the execution will be somewhat more difficult. The Seahawks seemed clipped last week before mounting a furious comeback against the San Francisco 49ers and nearly taking the NFC West, which would have nullified this game and given the Seahawks home field advantage. Would it have mattered? The Seahawks were 7-1 on the road this season, but 4-4 at home in the famous Home of the 12^th Man. They’re Expected W-L Record was also 8.2-7.8 because they had a point differential of only 0.4 ppg, despite being the 9th-ranked scoring offense. The Eagles almost have no offense to speak of, but the Seahawks brought Marshawn Lynch out of retirement, which speaks volumes about their problems on offense. The Seahawks defense is also a shell of its former self. The Eagles have a real shot at beating Seattle, I just don’t know what Carson Wentz is going to do if Zack Ertz can’t go.

Stay tuned for Tuesday's Gone: Week 18 #NFL Game Reviews WILD CARD ROUND EDITION coming Wednesday!

 

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