2019 NFL SEASON
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Week 18: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
WILD CARD ROUND EDITION
WILD CARD ROUND EDITION
2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:
165-89-1 .650 (WINS); 137-110-8 .555 (ATS); 134-115-6
.538 (O/U)
TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:
48-23-3 (.676)
Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis
based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points
against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA);
Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd);
Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S);
Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All
images from Google with permission to reuse without license* Statistical
sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football
Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures
are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider
NEW
TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON
<
Drake voice >
"TOP
5 TOP 5 TOP 5"
Pro
Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week for either the spread OR O/U denoted by an asterisk (*). Roll with our Top 5
and watch the money pile up all season!
Deshaun Watson hasn't fared as well in the NFL playoffs as he did at Clemson, but he gets another chance Saturday.
Buffalo
Bills (5)
10-6
(+2.5)
@ Houston Texans 10-6
(4)
(44):
Bills
26-20
Saturday,
4:35
PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather:
Indoors)
Keys: The
Texans are one of the most
average teams in the playoffs, as evidenced by their poor metrics
outside of rushing the
ball and
an Expected W-L Record of 8-8 according to Pro Football Reference.
Yet, the same statisticians rank the Texans 12th via their SRS metric (0.52),
and the Bills, with an Expected W-L Record of 10-6 and
far better metrics, especially defensively, only rank 13th.
Any advantages one might afford the Texans at home indoors should be
equally, if not more, applicable to the Bills, who have put up
average offensive numbers despite only playing two games outside of
the northeast since November (MIA;
DAL).
This
Bills defense is nasty, and the turf grass is only going to make them
faster, as well as their offense. Not to mention, the Bills are a little healthier. If Deshaun
Watson can’t put the Texans on his shoulders and have one of his
better games of the year Buffalo could pull off the upset and face a
too-well-rested Ravens team they came within one score of
tying/beating a few weeks and then a Patriots team they’ve already
faced. Then they’re in the Super Bowl for the first time in 30
years.
It could be curtains for The Golden Boy, but don't count these Patriots out yet.
Tennessee
Titans (6)
9-7
(+5)
@
New England Patriots (3)
12-4
(44.5):
Patriots
24-21
Keys:
Let’s
face it, the Titans are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, winners
of seven of their last ten since Ryan Tannehill took over. In fact,
Tannehill led the league in passer rating for qualified QBs (117.5),
setting the 4th
highest mark since they started keeping the PR statistic. It’s
also worth noting the Titans haven’t played an actual defense since
Tannehill took over, however. Yet, Titans also have the league’s leading rusher in Derrick Henry and a
WR with the highest ypc of any WR with at least 50 receptions (20.2
ypr);
did I mention he’s also a rookie? That rookie will likely be lined
against Stephon Gilmore, who had his worst game of the season in Week
17 or these teams wouldn’t even be facing each other in the Wild Card Round. Does that
mean Gilmore shows out and shuts down Brown, forcing the Titans to
run heavy? Would it matter? The Patriots supposedly historic defense
has feasted off the NFL’s easiest schedule all season, while just
happening to be worst at stopping the run then anything defensively
(14th ypa allowed).
It boils down to Gillette, the heavy rain, and whether or not these
Patriots and their fans are willing to say goodbye. If the Patriots
lose, the dynasty could officially be ovah, but with a little help
from the weather, a fan base that can pretend not to be spoiled for a
change and some familiarity with
Tannehill from Bill Belichick’s 11 games v. him with the Miami
Dolphins, the Patriots actually stand a chance. Yeah, I said it. A chance.
Drew Brees broke the all-time passing TD record this season, but he'd really like to go out with another Super Bowl trophy.
Minnesota
Vikings (6)
10-6 (+7.5)
@ New Orleans Saints (3)
13-3 (49.5):
Saints
27-23
Sunday,
1:05
PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather:
Indoors)
Keys: The
Vikings struggle on the road, Kirk Cousins threw four of his (only)
six INTs on the road, Dalvin Cook has missed a lot of time and the
Vikings tend to shrink under the bright lights. Even
if Cook was 100% the Saints excel at stopping the run. However,
when we pull back the curtain using some of the metrics we’ve used
all year (EW-LR;
SRS)
we see that the Vikings are right we’re they’re supposed to be at
10-6, and rank 6th
in SRS. The Saints, however, grade out the same at 10-6, yet won
three more games than expected.
They also rank just one spot higher in SRS, meaning on a neutral
field they’d likely come close to tying. The Saints also play in
the NFC South and played Jacksonville and Arizona, so despite the
preseason SoS metrics one could argue Minnesota played the tougher
schedule. So why the 7.5-point spread? Because Kirk Cousins is as
inconsistent as any QB making more than $20M/year
not named Eli Manning or Nick Foles, the
Vikings great pass defense is coming in with a banged-up secondary
and
the Superdome is nearly impossible to get a rhythm, hurry up, audible
or even hear yourself in if you’re the opposing offense. This
game will
likely come down to either
team’s elite pass rush and/or a
key TO, as both defenses sack
the QB (NO:
3rd;
MIN: 5th)
and take
the ball away (MIN:
4th;
NO: 10th),
but the Saints led the league in fewest TOs, so that might narrow
things down. I
wonder if they’ve factored in the officials yet, though, because
it’s that time of year.
If the Seattle Seahawks are going to advance past the Wild Card Round it's going to take another mercurial performance from Russell Wilson.
Seattle
Seahawks (5)
11-5
(-1.5)
@ Philadelphia Eagles (6)
9-7
(47):
Eagles
23-21
Sunday,
4:40
PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather:
50%
rain; mid-50s)
Keys: The
Eagles don’t stand much of a chance here unless they’re able to
shut down Russell Wilson. Seems like a simple enough plan, but the
execution will be somewhat more difficult. The Seahawks seemed
clipped last week before mounting a furious comeback against the San
Francisco 49ers and nearly taking the NFC West, which would have
nullified this game and
given the Seahawks home field advantage.
Would
it have mattered? The Seahawks were 7-1 on the road
this season, but 4-4 at home in the famous Home of the 12th
Man. They’re
Expected W-L Record was also
8.2-7.8
because they had a point differential of only 0.4 ppg, despite being
the 9th-ranked scoring offense. The Eagles almost have no offense to
speak of, but the Seahawks brought Marshawn Lynch out of retirement,
which speaks volumes about their problems on offense. The
Seahawks
defense is also
a
shell of its former self.
The
Eagles have a real shot at beating Seattle, I just don’t know what
Carson Wentz is going to do if Zack Ertz can’t go.
Stay tuned for Tuesday's Gone: Week 18 #NFL Game Reviews WILD CARD ROUND EDITION coming Wednesday!
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