2019 NFL SEASON
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Week 21: #NFL Game Prediction (w/ the spread & analysis)
SUPER BOWL LIV EDITION
SUPER BOWL LIV EDITION
2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:
165-89-1 .650 (WINS); 137-110-8 .555 (ATS); 134-115-6
.538 (O/U)
TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:
48-23-3 (.676)
2020 NFL PLAYOFFS
4-6 .400 (WINS); 4-6 .400 (ATS); 3-7 .300 (O/U)
2020 NFL PLAYOFFS
4-6 .400 (WINS); 4-6 .400 (ATS); 3-7 .300 (O/U)
Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis
based on the following metrics (abbreviations): EWL (Expected W-L record); SoS (Strength of Schedule); SRS (Simple Rating System from PFR); Points scored (PF); points
against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA);
Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 1st downs (1st); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd);
Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); P/R NY/A (Pass/Rush Net yards/attempt); Sacks (S);
Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All
images from Google with permission to reuse without license or they are credited with source* Statistical
sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football
Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures
are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider
NEW
TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON
<
Drake voice >
"TOP
5 TOP 5 TOP 5"
Pro
Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week for either the spread OR O/U denoted by an asterisk (*). Roll with our Top 5
and watch the money pile up all season!
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs were a Dee Ford offsides call away from Super Bowl LIII, so they've been chomping at the bit to get to Super Bowl LIV and prove they're the NFL's next dynasty. (Image credit: Chiefs.com)
San Francisco 49ers (1)
13-3 (+1.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (2)
12-4 (53.5): Chiefs 33-30
Keys: This is one of the best and closest Super Bowl match-ups in years: The classic explosive dynamic offense (KC) v. the quick and devastating defense (SF). It's far more complex than that. In the 28 regular season metrics I analyzed, from Expected W-L record, to Simple Rating System, to YPP, to (P/R)NY/A, to Red Zone efficiency, to time of possession (TOP), these teams ranked in the top-10 and within four rankings of each other in 20 of 28 statistical categories. That's incredible. Expected W-L record: 11.4-4.6 (KC) to 11.8-4.2 (SF). Nearly identical SoS by statistical standards, and completely average (SF: 0.41; KC: 0.20). In four major metrics (PA; PNY/A; DefPEN & Offensive Red Zone efficiency) the Chiefs and 49ers were ranked consecutively at the end of the regular season. Even in their two playoffs games in the divisional and championship rounds the two team's point differential was within three points (SF: +34; KC: +31). The offenses are eerily similar, statistically, although they couldn't look more different on the field for most of the time, considering how fast and dynamic the Chiefs offense is. The same could be said about the two defenses, statistically, but it's clear to everyone with two eyes, a brain, and some feel for the game of football that the 49ers are the superior defense. The crazy thing is, even in areas where the two teams seem "far apart", e.g. sacks or INTs, the difference in defensive sacks ranking (SF: 5th; KC: 11th) is only three sacks; the difference in defensive INTs ranking (KC: 5th; SF: 17th) is only four INTs. There's a reason this game has been bet down from three points to a Pick 'Em in some markets. I have a theory. The 49ers secondary is good, but their elite defensive players are up front and are some of the fastest defenders in the NFL. So the 49ers LBs and front four will essentially neutralize the Chiefs running game, and likely even Travis Kelce. That's not to say the Chiefs elite offensive tackles won't be able to fend off the 49ers elite pass rush, but with play action essentially taken away from the 49ers, because I predict they'll shut the Chiefs running game down, Patrick Mahomes will simply scramble to the left or right, and throw 30-yard seeds to Tyreek Hill et al, who will dust the slower 49ers secondary. The 49ers LBs will be too busy defending Kelce and spying Mahomes to drop back in coverage, and even if they do, they're not fast enough to stay with the Chiefs WRs. The 49ers offense should have no problem scoring on the Kansas City defense, probably to the tune of 27-31 points; that probably won't be enough to overcome the 30-35 points the Chiefs will likely score. One thing to look out for is Chris Jones v. the 49ers back-up center, who is a run-blocking specialist. If the 49ers go run-heavy, perhaps that match-up gets neutralized to some degree, but if Jones is successful in rushing the QB, Jimmy G could be on the run, meaning the 49ers could be closer to the 24-28 point range, unless that opens George Kittle for a monster game. Don't get me wrong, the 49ers are the cream of the NFL, but the Chiefs have showed us the past few week just how deadly they can be. The heart wants the San Fransisco 49ers due to my California ties and the fact Jimmy Garoppolo should have been the New England Patriots QB for the next 10-12 years, but my money is on Patrick Mahomes and the rest of his Muppets. If Andy Reid wins, will they throw Kool-Aid on him? Oh yeah!!!
Stay tuned for Tuesday's Gone: Week 21 #NFL Game Reviews SUPER BOWL LIV EDITION coming Wednesday!
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