PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Week 20: #NFL Game Predictions (w/spreads & analysis) CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND EDITION

2019 NFL SEASON 

P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A

Week 20:  #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND EDITION

2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:

165-89-1 .650 (WINS); 137-110-8 .555 (ATS); 134-115-6 .538 (O/U)

TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:

48-23-3 (.676)

2020 NFL PLAYOFFS
 2-6 .250 (WINS); 3-5 .375 (ATS); 1-7 .125 (O/U)

 

Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3^rd-down efficiency (3^rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All images from Google with permission to reuse without license* Statistical sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider

NEW TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON

< Drake voice >

"TOP 5 TOP 5 TOP 5"

 

Pro Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week for either the spread OR O/U denoted by an asterisk (*). Roll with our Top 5 and watch the money pile up all season!

 Kermit was feeling himself after his WRs finally started catching balls, but he can't stop Derrick Henry. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)

Tennessee Titans (6) 9-7 (+7) @ Kansas City Chiefs (2) 12-4 (53): Chiefs 31-27

Sunday, 3:05 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Mostly Sunny; mid-20s)

Keys: There's something to be said about six playoff games in a row with a spread greater than 4.5 points. In other words, Las Vegas doesn't see any of these games as close. The aforementioned 4.5 points was afforded the Seattle Seahawks, and that's because the Seahawks and Green Bay Packers were the most overrated teams coming into the playoffs, so Green Bay got the customary 3.5-4 points just for having a real home-field advantage. Besides that the spreads have been in the 7-10 point range, which is a blowout by NFL standards. The match-up everyone is paying attention to is Derrick Henry v. a Chiefs run defense that's not only overrated, but could be missing Chris Jones, again, which would be devastating. Some reports say he injured himself in practice, right at the end; some reports say he injured himself playing basketball at the facility. If it's the latter let's chalk it up to another Andy Reid failure. What's your top defensive lineman and best run stopper doing playing anything other than "walk through" at this crucial a time during the season? The Chiefs can't afford to go down 24-0 v. these Titans because they'll literally run them out of Arrowhead Stadium. However, the Titans aren't exactly crisp against the pass, and Patrick Mahomes has proven at every level he can chuck it with the best of them. This is also a Titans team that shut down Tom Brady, which turns out probably wasn't a big feat, and Lamar Jackson, who looked anything but sharp throwing the ball v. Tennessee. Be on the lookout for TOs, too, because both teams rank 10th in takeaways, but don't strain yourself looking because these teams rank 3rd (KC) and 7th (TEN), respectively, in TOs. Some might think Henry can't possibly run for close to 200 yards for a fourth straight week, but did you think it was happening for three straight weeks to get into the playoffs and through the Wild Card and Divisional rounds? I didn't think so. Chris Jones has never been more important in his life, but the game rides just as much on the shoulders of the New England Patriots secondary, err, I mean the Titans secondary. 

 If someone has a 4.5:1 career TD:INT ratio, but only one Super Bowl appearance in 14 years to show for it, does it make a noise?

Green Bay Packers (2) 13-3 (+7.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (1) 13-3 (46): 49ers 28-20

Sunday, 6:40 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Cloudy; low 50s)

Keys: To put it simply, this match-up features the most overrated team left in the playoffs v. the best team left in the playoffs, and unless you're from Wisconsin you know which teams belongs where. This just isn't a good match-up for the Packers, and the last time these teams played the shorthanded 49ers made an example out of the Packers, despite both teams fighting for the NFC crown Week 12. The Packers aren't in the same class as the 49ers, and San Fransisco can get to Aaron Rodgers, although the 5th-ranked 49ers only sacked seven more QBs than the 15th-ranked Packers. The Packers defense is overrated; the 49ers ranks 2nd overall. The Packers running game is overrated; the 49ers rank 2nd overall. The Packers could be the first team in NFL history to be out-gained on the season and still be playing in a conference championship; the 49ers rank 2nd in defensive yards allowed and 4th in offensive yards gained. The 49ers also have depth in spades, while the Packers, well, don't. When Rodgers snarkily says "I guess we're just smoke and mirrors", he's telling the truth, whether his arrogance allows him to realize it or not. The Packers have no business even being here, so that can only mean they'll probably cover or even win. Just kidding, they should get demolished. I wish I could say the same thing about...never mind. 

Stay tuned for Tuesday's Gone: Week 20 #NFL Game Reviews CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND EDITION coming Friday!

 

ProFootballMedia.com
@profootballmed