2019 NFL SEASON
P R O F O O T B A L L M
E D I A
Tuesday's Gone: Week 3 #NFL Game Reviews
2019 NFL SEASON WEEK 3:
9-7 .563 (WINS); 9-7 .563 (ATS); 7-8-1 .467 (O/U)
2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:
28-19-1 .596 (WINS); 26-21-1 .553 (ATS); 28-19-1 .596 (O/U)
WEEK 2 TOP 5 GAMES:
2-2-1 (.400)
TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:
7-7-1 (.500)
Note/Key (when
applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics
(abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential
(PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down
efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP);
Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN);
Against the spread (ATS). *All images from Google with permission to reuse
without license* Statistical sources include, but not limited to: Pro
Football Reference; Pro Football Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com.
Point spreads and over/under figures are taken from the opening lines via Vegas
Insider
NEW
TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON
<
Drake voice >
"TOP
5 TOP 5 TOP 5"
Pro
Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week for either the spread OR O/U denoted by an asterisk (*). Roll with our Top 5 and watch the money pile up all season!
The general NFL public is already sick of Marcus Mariota so I can't imagine how Tennessee Titans fans are feeling.
Tennessee Titans 1-1 (-1.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 0-2 (39): Titans 23-20 Jaguars 20-7
Thursday, 8:20 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: 40% rain; high 70s)
Keys: Thursday Night Football’s underwhelming match
up features a divisional game from the AFC South between two teams that still
play football like it’s the 1950s. The Titans came into the season with a stout defense, but
games v. the over-hyped Cleveland Browns and the Luckless Indianapolis Colts
weren’t exactly barometers. The Titans will face a similar task Thursday night
against an offensively-inept Jags team whose only offensive bright spot so far has
been their backup QB Gardner Minshew stepping in adequately to feed a decent group
of wide receivers. On the other side of the ball the Jags have defensive talent,
too, but star corner back Jalen Ramsey requested a trade following an incident
with head coach Doug Marrone Sunday after Marrone lost the game v. the Houston
Texans by opting for the game-winning two-point conversion rather than the game-tying
PAT. Ramsey will likely play, but will he? Why risk injury when an
imminent trade is on the horizon…
Apologies for fumbling this game across the board, folks. The Gardner Minshew Show started Thursday night and he wasn't even the game's leading passer; Marcus Mariota was. Unfortunately, for Mariota, his inflated numbers didn't come with any TDs, but Minshew threw two TDs in the 1Q and that was the game. It would be wild to see the Jaguars land a stretched-out Baker Mayfield with the 178th pick instead of the first.
Cincinnati Bengals 0-2 (+6) @ Buffalo
Bills 2-0 (44): Bills 24-21 Bills 21-17
Sunday, 1:00
PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)
Keys: There
might not be a more well-rested team in the NFL than the Bills, who played at
the Meadowlands two weeks in a row to open the season and then drove the same
distance home (~6 hours) the Bengals have to travel Sunday. The Bills
could run all over the Bengals Sunday, but the Bengals won’t be running
anywhere; in fact, Bills QB Josh Allen has the same number of rushing yards as
the entire Bengals team (59). This leaves the game in the hands of Andy Dalton, who despite being second in the league in passing yards, has only
thrown four TDs, and the Bills secondary is one of the best in the NFL. As good
as the Bills have played thus far, I don’t like them getting six points against
a team who has played a much tougher schedule so far. Take the over despite the
Bills dominating time of possession with the run game.
The Bills tried to give the game away after dominating the first half 14-0, but then Cincinnati scored 17 unanswered points in the second half to take over the game late into the 4Q, despite only 23 minutes time of possession. Buffalo's defense was just too good in the end, forcing four Bengals TOs and holding the Bengals to 304 total yards.
*Miami
Dolphins 0-2 (+22.5) @ Dallas
Cowboys 2-0 (47.5): Cowboys 35-10 Cowboys 31-6
Sunday,
1:00 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: What
is the NFL coming to? Despite preaching parody the league continues to be
dominated by the same few teams, and now in Week 3 we have two spreads of 20+
points against two teams from the same division (NJY @ NE, see below)! The
NFL hasn’t seen a 20+-point spread since the strike year in 1987. The Dolphins
are awful and clearly tanking for 2020 and beyond, while the Cowboys seem to be
getting better by the week as Dak Prescott auditions for Highest Paid Quarterback.
Consider: Ezekiel Elliot is among the lowest graded offensive players to begin
the season. Scary. You know a team is bad when the biggest question isn’t the
large spread, but whether the underdog will score enough points to hit the
over. I’m not sure they are. * = Cowboys cover
The Cowboys made many people nervous Sunday afternoon, leading only 10-6 at the half, but then Dallas scored 21 unanswered second-half points and narrowly put those fears to rest. The Cowboys covered the largest spread since the strike year over 30 years ago at 22.5 points, which the Dolphins might even entertain breaking by the end of the season. PFM swept this game across the board.
Denver
Broncos 0-2 (+7.5)
@ Green Bay Packers 2-0 (43): Packers 24-17 Packers 27-16
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: 30% storms; low 70s)
Keys: Few
people know the Packers as well as Broncos head coach Vic Fangio, the Chicago
Bears defensive coordinator from 2015-2018, but it’s not as if the Bears had
much success under Fangio against Aaron Rodgers (2-6; 24.9 ppg). Both
teams have won or lost both games by a possession, and both teams possess great
defenses, but only one possess any semblance of an offense and they happen to
be home. Fangio might slow Rodgers and the Packers down, but he slows the
Broncos down, too.
Well, this game essentially went down the way I thought it would, except for the Broncos covering part. The O/U also pushed, so I can brag about being close all I want, but it's not horseshoes and it ain't hand grenades.
Now that
Julio Jones has been paid it’s time to start scoring touchdowns.
*Atlanta
Falcons 1-1 (+1.5) @ Indianapolis Colts 1-1
(47): Colts 27-24 Colts 27-24
Sunday, 1:00PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
(Weather Indoors)
Keys: The
Falcons play their third dome game in a row to open the season, two of them
away and out of their division, which may seem crazy until you see the Falcons 2019
schedule. Atlanta plays four away games out-of-division/conference in domes. FOUR!
The Falcons other out-of-division NFC game? Santa Clara, California in
December. With a schedule that favorable and a high-powered offense you’d think
the Falcons would take advantage of the regular season schedule before they got
destroyed outdoors in the winter weather come playoff time. Alas. I wouldn’t
trust the Colts kicking game if the game is close, but the Falcons are
struggling after barely beating a hobbled Eagles team at home last week, so the
game might not come to any last-minute kicking heroics. This game could be
about two running attacks, and the Falcons could debut theirs Sunday because
the Colts give up over 124 rushing yards per game. The Colts, on the other
hand, rely on their running game and Marlon Mack (245 yards; 5.4 ypr).
Despite this, the only safe bet here is the over, because the Colts are home
for the first time in 2019 and the Falcons can only go up from 18 ppg. * = Over
Hey, I get one game perfect once a season.
*Baltimore
Ravens 2-0 (+6) @ Kansas
City Chiefs 2-0 (52): Chiefs 24-23 Chiefs 33-28
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Arrowhead Stadium,
Kansas City, MO (Weather: 70% storms;
high 70s)
Keys: The
weather has already caused the O/U to fall from 55 to 52 in the game between
the two highest scoring offenses of 2019 so far. The Ravens are banged up on
defense, especially in the secondary, but have the best ground attack of any
team in the NFL (223.5 ypg), so the weather might keep the game grounded.
Advantage Baltimore. Both teams give up two of the highest rates of explosive
plays in the league, but neither team may have a chance to take advantage in
the rain. The bottom line is the Ravens came within a score of losing at home
to the Cardinals last week, while the Chiefs won their Week 2 game in 28-10 in
the 2Q alone. The weather plays a large
role here… * = Under
The Ravens left some points on the field, but truth be told, it was amazing the Ravens were even able to keep up in the first place. The Chiefs defense broke down late allowing the Ravens to catch back up and cover, but the weather didn't even slow these teams down for a second. The under was secretly my lock of the week, but thankfully I kept that to myself.
Oakland
Raiders 1-1 (+9) @ Minnesota Vikings 1-1 (43.5):
Vikings 27-17 Vikings 34-14
Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium,
Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: These
teams are diametrically opposed, the Vikings scoring 22 ppg and yielding fewer
than 17 ppg, while the Raiders score 17 ppg and give up 22 ppg. So, the game
will be 22-17, right? It won’t be far off. The Vikings defense seems back to
form having shut down two high-octane offenses led by future HOF QBs in
back-to-back weeks to start the season, while the Raiders are none of those
things. The Raiders only yield 63 rush yards per game, but Dalvin Cook has
already rushed for 265 yards and is averaging 6.5 ypc. Still, nine points is a
lot for a team led by Kirk Cousins, but the Raiders couldn’t even score a
single point against the lowly Kansas City Chiefs defense after the 1Q of last
week’s game.
The Vikings literally ran all over the Raiders, who scored a late TD avoid it looking like a complete demolition. PFM swept this game across the board.
*New York Jets 0-2 (+22) @ New England Patriots 2-0 (43.5): Patriots 34-6 Patriots 30-14
Sunday,
1:00PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather:
Sunny; low 80s)
Keys: Here’s
that other ridiculous spread we talked about earlier. Las Vegas sharps opened
this game at NE +20, so they assumed the Patriots would win the game by a score
close to 32-12. Does anyone in their right mind think the game will even be
that close? Consider: The Jets aren’t coached by the Patriots 2018 defensive
coordinator and Bill Belichick hates the Jets. I can’t really see the Jets even
scoring on the Patriots, and I can see Belichick running up the score on
the rookie Luke Falk. The trouble is the O/U, because it’ll be largely up to
New England. * = Patriots cover
This was probably the most frustrating game of the day. The Patriots led 20-0 at halftime, but took their foot off the gas in the second half. Did they allow the Jets to get back into it, you ask? No, the Patriots special teams fumbled a punt, of which the Jets scooped and ran into the end zone, and then in the name of keeping Tom Brady healthy in a blowout, decided to put back-up Jarrett Stidham into the game, who instantly pick-sixed us into a Jets backdoor cover. UGH.
Carson
Wentz is about 1.5 hits away from joining Nick Foles on IR. Wait a minute…but
who will QB the Eagles through the playoffs?
Detroit
Lions 1-0-1 (+6) @ Philadelphia
Eagles 1-1 (45.5): Eagles 24-21 Lions 27-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium,
Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Sunny; high 80s)
Keys: The Eagles stumble into Sunday’s game like a
punch-drunk fighter. The Lions have talent on defense, especially up front. The
last thing the Eagles need is another injury to Carson Wentz, which looks
imminent after taking 18 QB hits through two games. The Lions are an
inconsistent mess run by a rocket scientist who apparently can’t figure out a
football game, but they’re getting six points against an offense with no
receiving threats and a defensive backfield that was torched by Matt Ryan last
week.
Got the Eagles score part right, but Philadelphia's defense continues to under-perform, so I fumbled the win and the under. The Lions might be better than we thought, and the Eagles offense was exactly where I'd expect them to be without their two best wide outs, but the defense has now given up 78 points in three games. Let these Eagles fly for now.
Carolina
Panthers 0-2 (+2.5)
@ Arizona Cardinals 0-1-1 (44.5): Cardinals 24-21 Panthers 38-20
Sunday,
4:05 PM, Univ. of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Things
have gotten so bad in Carolina they’re 2.5-point underdogs at Arizona, which
means the sharps basically think there isn’t much difference between the two.
In fact, the Panthers money line is +115. Of course, this largely falls on the
shoulders and at the feet of Cam Newton, who not only looks hurt, but looks
like RGIII. I’m all about a vegan diet, but not in the 10-year span you’re
being assaulted by 330-lb men 1-3 days a week. The Cardinals are awful, but
rookie Kyler Murray is exciting and seems to keep the Cardinals in every game,
albeit a small sample size. The question here is whether a rookie sensation QB
is worth more than a second-year QB? The answer is yes, because other than a
year of training camp and being Cam Newton et al back up for a year,
Murray technically has more pro experience than the Panthers back up KyleAllen. Considering Allen’s primary weapon is also a second-year player (DJMoore), while Murray’s is future HOFer Larry Fitzgerald, the advantages mount
and the spread becomes clear. You know Fitzgerald is the only active "Larry" in the NFL?
Kyler Murray had more completions than Kyle Allen had attempts, but Allen ended up with twice the amount of TD passes (4) as his former college teammate (2). Carolina led the game 14-10 heading into the half, but the Panthers exploded for 24 second-half points, including two more TD passes from Allen and the game-winning 76-yard TD run from Christian McCaffery.
New York
Giants 0-2 (+6.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-1 (48):
Buccaneers 27-23 Giants 32-31
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa
Bay, FL (Weather: Sunny; low 90s)
Keys: This is another game that warrants a snicker
at the road dog at first glance, this time being the hapless Giants. Then trust
issues with Jameis Winston start to creep in and suddenly 6.5 points seems like
too much. Maybe it should, because the Bucs have only scored 18.5 ppg, but you
don’t hear people calling for the retirement of Winston. The Giants defense is
also atrocious. Daniel Jones might be starting his first NFL game, but he’ll inject some youth and
excitement into a Giants offense that has only managed 15.5 ppg this season.
Anything but Eli Face. The Bucs defense is banged up, but they should make life
difficult enough on New York to beat the Giants at home, just not by over six
points.
The Danny Jones era has begun in NYC. I thought this game would go over because I knew three things: Both defenses sucked and/or were banged up, Jameis Winston (3 TDs) would feast and Daniel Jones (4 Total TDs) would bring the energy to his first NFL start. I also knew the Giants would cover because getting 6.5 points from the Bucs is like a gift from the football gods, even if you are one of the worst teams in the NFL. I just didn't see the Giants winning, and they probably shouldn't have, but Bucs kicker Matt Gay missed his only FG on the day (4/5) on a chip shot from 34 yards, despite hitting one from 50 yards earlier.
Houston Texans 1-1 (+3) @ Los Angeles Chargers 1-1 (48.5): Chargers 26-24 Texans 27-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Stub Hub Field, Carson, CA (Weather:
Sunny; low 80s)
Keys: I’m
done betting on the Chargers until further notice. Injuries, kicking woes, no
home field advantage and a statuesque QB approaching his 40s is enough to
warrant such a decision. The Texans also happen to be another one of the most
inconsistent teams loaded with talent. The Texans already have health issues
along the offensive line and protection is a must against the Chargers, not
just for Deshaun Watson’s overall health, but because Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are chomping at the bit. Both teams need to get back on track after
suffering crushing losses and barely squeaking out wins the first two weeks.
The Chargers “home field advantage” is set at ~1.5 points according to sharps,
a full point lower than the league home field advantage average, meaning Las
Vegas sees the Chargers as slight favorites here, which makes sense under the
circumstances.
The Texans hit Phillip Rivers 12 times, sacking him five times, which is still fewer hit than Keenan Allen targets (17) as Rivers tried to force the ball, and the win, to Allen to no avail for the second week in a row. If the effing Chargers could even hit another FG we hit the over.
The Mason
Rudolph era begins in Pittsburgh today, but unfortunately Ben Roethlisberger
never taught him anything.
*Pittsburgh
Steelers 0-2 (+6.5) @ San Francisco
49ers 2-0 (44): 49ers 27-20 49ers 24-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara,
CA (Weather: Sunny; mid-80s)
Keys: The
funny thing about Ben Roethlisberger’s elbow injury was all the people talking
about he looked hurt Week 1 instead of asking why Roethlisberger has four chins
and has looked 40 pounds overweight for ten years now. In a year when
Pittsburgh has much to prove, coming off the Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown
drama, coming off a year in which they missed the playoffs and Roethlisberger
comes in grotesquely overweight. Remember when James Connor would “replace”
Bell? He has 54 rushing yards through two games. Compound this with the fact
Roethlisberger is the highest paid player in the NFL at over $35M/year, it’s a
disgrace for the team “leader” to come in looking like Freddie Kitchens. End
Roethlisberger rant. I have nothing to say about the 49ers other than they
should destroy this directionless Steelers team traveling across the country in
which their most questionable attribute is their secondary, but there’s a
chance the Steelers top-graded pass rush could disrupt Jimmy Garoppolo. Is that
why the O/U so low? * = Over
Surely if the 49ers hadn't turned the ball over five times, several in their own territory, they would've scored at least three more points and I wouldn't be bitter about missing the cover and the over.
New Orleans
Saints 1-1 (+4) @ Seattle Seahawks 2-0 (44.5): Seahawks 28-20 Saints 33-28
Sunday, 4:25 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA
(Weather: 60% rain; mid-60s)
Keys: The Saints went from Super Bowl contenders to
being written off in a single play thanks to DPoY Aaron Donald. It’s not as if
Drew Brees is Patrick Mahomes, but more Tom Brady, in that the physical
attributes pale in comparison to the mental attributes and experience. The
Saints had already resolved to being a run-first team, but the seamlessness
between Brees and head coach Sean Payton isn’t something that just miraculously
translates to the back up QB, even if it is an experienced Teddy Bridgewater.
That’s basically the gist of it: Cut off the head and the body dies. The
Seahawks are lucky to be 2-0 after barely beating the Cincinnati Bengals at
home and barley beating a Roethlisbergerless Pittsburgh Steelers team on the
road, but the latter setting is key, and the Seahawks should bounce back nicely
at home against a reeling Saints team, so long as Seattle’s offensive line can
keep Russell Wilson upright.
The Saints returned a punt and a Seahawks fumble for a TD and that was the difference in a game the Seahawks dominated statistically. In fact, the Seahawks nearly doubled the Saints offensive production despite trailing 33-14 with just over four minutes remaining in the game. The Seahawks were once unbeatable at home.
Los Angeles
Rams 2-0 (-3) v. Cleveland Browns 1-1 (48): Rams 27-23 Rams 20-13
Sunday, 8:20 PM, First Energy Stadium,
Cleveland, OH (Weather: 60% rain; low
70s)
Keys: The Browns should be thanking the weather
gods or else they might be getting run off their own field Sunday night. Cleveland
has been nothing short of underwhelming so far this season, but that’s more the
media’s fault than the Browns. The Browns have abandoned all sense to keep
Odell Beckham Jr. happy, which includes Baker Mayfield forcing the ball to him
under any circumstance. Good luck with the against the Rams, who are just the
type of dudes to take advantage of forced passes. Mayfield could be in
serious trouble here, because Aaron Donald and the Rams defense are capable of
getting after it, and the Browns are having a hard time protecting Mayfield in
the first place. If the Browns get beat bad, and the loss includes several
forced balls to OBJ over including Jarvis Landry and Nick Chubbs, this ship
will sink into Lake Erie by Week 3.
Holy shit the Browns are hilariously bad. People can make all the excuses they want, but those people were likely partying on the Browns preseason bandwagon. Not this guy. I haven't believed in OBJ since his rookie year, I've never believed in a young QB that starred in more tv commercials than end zone celebrations, and who the hell is Freddie Soup Kitchens? The "aww shucks, it's my fault" routine is already stale, the offensive line is exposing Baker Mayfield and there's no way everyone is satisfied on an offense spreading 16.3 ppg around, so just because Cleveland kept the game close against an overrated Rams team at home doesn't mean anything.
Chicago
Bears 1-1 (-4) @ Washington
Football Team 0-2 (41): Bears 20-17 Bears 31-15
Monday, 8:15 PM,
FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather: Chance
rain; high 60s)
Keys: Meh. I’m not sure how many will tune into
ESPN’s terrible MNF coverage to see a game between two putrid offenses and one
stellar defense, especially with a chance of rain. This essentially means we’ll
have a low-scoring game in which the Bears should crush Washington, but the
Bears offense doesn’t score enough points with Mitch Trubisky to crush anyone.
The Bears defense is who we thought they were and they dismantled an already reeling Washington offense counting the days until unveiling rookie Dwayne Haskins a la the New York Giants with Daniel Jones.
Stay tuned for Week 4: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) coming Wednesday!
