PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Week 3: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) SUNDAY EDITION

2019 NFL SEASON

P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A

Week 3: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) SUNDAY EDITION

2019 NFL SEASON WEEK 2: 

10-6 .625 (WINS); 11-5 .688 (ATS); 7-9 .438 (O/U) 

2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:

19-12-1 .595 (WINS); 17-14-1 .548 (ATS); 21-11 .656 (O/U)

WEEK 2 TOP 5 GAMES:

2-3 (.400)

TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:

5-5 (.500)

 

Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3^rd-down efficiency (3^rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All images from Google with permission to reuse without license* Statistical sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider

NEW TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON

< Drake voice >

"TOP 5 TOP 5 TOP 5"

 

Pro Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week for either the spread OR O/U denoted by an asterisk (*). Roll with our Top 5 and watch the money pile up all season!

The general NFL public is already sick of Marcus Mariota so I can't imagine how Tennessee Titans fans are feeling.

Tennessee Titans 1-1 (-1.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 0-2 (39): Titans 23-20

Thursday, 8:20 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: 40% rain; high 70s) 

Keys: Thursday Night Football’s underwhelming match up features a divisional game from the AFC South between two teams that still play football like it’s the 1950s. The Titans came into the season with a stout defense, but games v. the over-hyped Cleveland Browns and the Luckless Indianapolis Colts weren’t exactly barometers. The Titans will face a similar task Thursday night against an offensively-inept Jags team whose only offensive bright spot so far has been their backup QB Gardner Minshew stepping in adequately to feed a decent group of wide receivers. On the other side of the ball the Jags have defensive talent, too, but star corner back Jalen Ramsey requested a trade following an incident with head coach Doug Marrone Sunday after Marrone lost the game v. the Houston Texans by opting for the game-winning two-point conversion rather than the game-tying PAT. Ramsey will likely play, but will he? Why risk injury when an imminent trade is on the horizon…

Cincinnati Bengals 0-2 (+6) @ Buffalo Bills 2-0 (44): Bills 24-21

Sunday, 1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: Sunny; low 80s) 

Keys: There might not be a more well-rested team in the NFL than the Bills, who played at the Meadowlands two weeks in a row to open the season and then drove the same distance home (~6 hours) the Bengals have to travel Sunday. The Bills could run all over the Bengals Sunday, but the Bengals won’t be running anywhere; in fact, Bills QB Josh Allen has the same number of rushing yards as the entire Bengals team (59). This leaves the game in the hands of Andy Dalton, who despite being second in the league in passing yards, has only thrown four TDs, and the Bills secondary is one of the best in the NFL. As good as the Bills have played thus far, I don’t like them getting six points against a team who has played a much tougher schedule so far. Take the over despite the Bills dominating time of possession with the run game.

*Miami Dolphins 0-2 (+22.5) @ Dallas Cowboys 2-0 (47.5): Cowboys 35-10 

Sunday, 1:00 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors) 

Keys: What is the NFL coming to? Despite preaching parody the league continues to be dominated by the same few teams, and now in Week 3 we have two spreads of 20+ points against two teams from the same division (NJY @ NE, see below)! The NFL hasn’t seen a 20+-point spread since the strike year in 1987. The Dolphins are awful and clearly tanking for 2020 and beyond, while the Cowboys seem to be getting better by the week as Dak Prescott auditions for Highest Paid Quarterback. Consider: Ezekiel Elliot is among the lowest graded offensive players to begin the season. Scary. You know a team is bad when the biggest question isn’t the large spread, but whether the underdog will score enough points to hit the over. I’m not sure they are. * = Cowboys cover

Denver Broncos 0-2 (+7.5) @ Green Bay Packers 2-0 (43): Packers 24-17

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: 30% storms; low 70s) 

Keys: Few people know the Packers as well as Broncos head coach Vic Fangio, the Chicago Bears defensive coordinator from 2015-2018, but it’s not as if the Bears had much success under Fangio against Aaron Rodgers (2-6; 24.9 ppg). Both teams have won or lost both games by a possession, and both teams possess great defenses, but only one possess any semblance of an offense and they happen to be home. Fangio might slow Rodgers and the Packers down, but he slows the Broncos down, too.  

Now that Julio Jones has been paid it’s time to start scoring touchdowns.

*Atlanta Falcons 1-1 (+1.5) @ Indianapolis Colts 1-1 (47): Colts 27-24 

Sunday, 1:00PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather Indoors) 

Keys: The Falcons play their third dome game in a row to open the season, two of them away and out of their division, which may seem crazy until you see the Falcons 2019 schedule. Atlanta plays four away games out-of-division/conference in domes. FOUR! The Falcons other out-of-division NFC game? Santa Clara, California in December. With a schedule that favorable and a high-powered offense you’d think the Falcons would take advantage of the regular season schedule before they got destroyed outdoors in the winter weather come playoff time. Alas. I wouldn’t trust the Colts kicking game if the game is close, but the Falcons are struggling after barely beating a hobbled Eagles team at home last week, so the game might not come to any last-minute kicking heroics. This game could be about two running attacks, and the Falcons could debut theirs Sunday because the Colts give up over 124 rushing yards per game. The Colts, on the other hand, rely on their running game and Marlon Mack (245 yards; 5.4 ypr). Despite this, the only safe bet here is the over, because the Colts are home for the first time in 2019 and the Falcons can only go up from 18 ppg. * = Over 

*Baltimore Ravens 2-0 (+6) @ Kansas City Chiefs 2-0 (52): Chiefs 24-23 

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: 70% storms; high 70s)

Keys: The weather has already caused the O/U to fall from 55 to 52 in the game between the two highest scoring offenses of 2019 so far. The Ravens are banged up on defense, especially in the secondary, but have the best ground attack of any team in the NFL (223.5 ypg), so the weather might keep the game grounded. Advantage Baltimore. Both teams give up two of the highest rates of explosive plays in the league, but neither team may have a chance to take advantage in the rain. The bottom line is the Ravens came within a score of losing at home to the Cardinals last week, while the Chiefs won their Week 2 game in 28-10 in the 2Q alone.  The weather plays a large role here… * = Under

Oakland Raiders 0-2 (+9) @ Minnesota Vikings 1-1 (43.5): Vikings 27-17

Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors) 

Keys: These teams are diametrically opposed, the Vikings scoring 22 ppg and yielding fewer than 17 ppg, while the Raiders score 17 ppg and give up 22 ppg. So, the game will be 22-17, right? It won’t be far off. The Vikings defense seems back to form having shut down two high-octane offenses led by future HOF QBs in back-to-back weeks to start the season, while the Raiders are none of those things. The Raiders only yield 63 rush yards per game, but Dalvin Cook has already rushed for 265 yards and is averaging 6.5 ypc. Still, nine points is a lot for a team led by Kirk Cousins, but the Raiders couldn’t even score a single point against the lowly Kansas City Chiefs defense after the 1Q of last week’s game.

*New York Jets 0-2 (+22) @ New England Patriots 2-0 (43.5): Patriots 34-6

Sunday, 1:00PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)

Keys: Here’s that other ridiculous spread we talked about earlier. Las Vegas sharps opened this game at NE +20, so they assumed the Patriots would win the game by a score close to 32-12. Does anyone in their right mind think the game will even be that close? Consider: The Jets aren’t coached by the Patriots 2018 defensive coordinator and Bill Belichick hates the Jets. I can’t really see the Jets even scoring on the Patriots, and I can see Belichick running up the score on the rookie Luke Falk. The trouble is the O/U, because it’ll be largely up to New England. * = Patriots cover

Carson Wentz is about 1.5 hits away from joining Nick Foles on IR. Wait a minute…but who will QB the Eagles through the playoffs?

Detroit Lions 1-0-1 (+6) @ Philadelphia Eagles 1-1 (45.5): Eagles 24-21 

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Sunny; high 80s) 

Keys: The Eagles stumble into Sunday’s game like a punch-drunk fighter. The Lions have talent on defense, especially up front. The last thing the Eagles need is another injury to Carson Wentz, which looks imminent after taking 18 QB hits through two games. The Lions are an inconsistent mess run by a rocket scientist who apparently can’t figure out a football game, but they’re getting six points against an offense with no receiving threats and a defensive backfield that was torched by Matt Ryan last week.  

Carolina Panthers 0-2 (+2.5) @ Arizona Cardinals 0-1-1 (44.5): Cardinals 24-21 

Sunday, 4:05 PM, Univ. of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors) 

Keys: Things have gotten so bad in Carolina they’re 2.5-point underdogs at Arizona, which means the sharps basically think there isn’t much difference between the two. In fact, the Panthers money line is +115. Of course, this largely falls on the shoulders and at the feet of Cam Newton, who not only looks hurt, but looks like RGIII. I’m all about a vegan diet, but not in the 10-year span you’re being assaulted by 330-lb men 1-3 days a week. The Cardinals are awful, but rookie Kyler Murray is exciting and seems to keep the Cardinals in every game, albeit a small sample size. The question here is whether a rookie sensation QB is worth more than a second-year QB? The answer is yes, because other than a year of training camp and being Cam Newton et al back up for a year, Murray technically has more pro experience than the Panthers back up KyleAllen. Considering Allen’s primary weapon is also a second-year player (DJMoore), while Murray’s is future HOFer Larry Fitzgerald, the advantages mount and the spread becomes clear. You know Fitzgerald is the only active "Larry" in the NFL?

New York Giants 0-2 (+6.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-1 (48): Buccaneers 27-23

 

Sunday, 4:05 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Sunny; low 90s)

Keys: This is another game that warrants a snicker at the road dog at first glance, this time being the hapless Giants. Then trust issues with Jameis Winston start to creep in and suddenly 6.5 points seems like too much. Maybe it should, because the Bucs have only scored 18.5 ppg, but you don’t hear people calling for the retirement of Winston. The Giants defense is also atrocious. Daniel Jones might be starting his first NFL game, but he’ll inject some youth and excitement into a Giants offense that has only managed 15.5 ppg this season. Anything but Eli Face. The Bucs defense is banged up, but they should make life difficult enough on New York to beat the Giants at home, just not by over six points. 

Houston Texans 1-1 (+3) @ Los Angeles Chargers 1-1 (48.5): Chargers 26-24

Sunday, 4:25 PM, Stub Hub Field, Carson, CA (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)

Keys: I’m done betting on the Chargers until further notice. Injuries, kicking woes, no home field advantage and a statuesque QB approaching his 40s is enough to warrant such a decision. The Texans also happen to be another one of the most inconsistent teams loaded with talent. The Texans already have health issues along the offensive line and protection is a must against the Chargers, not just for Deshaun Watson’s overall health, but because Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are chomping at the bit. Both teams need to get back on track after suffering crushing losses and barely squeaking out wins the first two weeks. The Chargers “home field advantage” is set at ~1.5 points according to sharps, a full point lower than the league home field advantage average, meaning Las Vegas sees the Chargers as slight favorites here, which makes sense under the circumstances. 

The Mason Rudolph era begins in Pittsburgh today, but unfortunately Ben Roethlisberger never taught him anything.

*Pittsburgh Steelers 0-2 (+6.5) @ San Francisco 49ers 2-0 (44): 49ers 27-20 

Sunday, 4:25 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Sunny; mid-80s) 

Keys: The funny thing about Ben Roethlisberger’s elbow injury was all the people talking about he looked hurt Week 1 instead of asking why Roethlisberger has four chins and has looked 40 pounds overweight for ten years now. In a year when Pittsburgh has much to prove, coming off the Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown drama, coming off a year in which they missed the playoffs and Roethlisberger comes in grotesquely overweight. Remember when James Connor would “replace” Bell? He has 54 rushing yards through two games. Compound this with the fact Roethlisberger is the highest paid player in the NFL at over $35M/year, it’s a disgrace for the team “leader” to come in looking like Freddie Kitchens. End Roethlisberger rant. I have nothing to say about the 49ers other than they should destroy this directionless Steelers team traveling across the country in which their most questionable attribute is their secondary, but there’s a chance the Steelers top-graded pass rush could disrupt Jimmy Garoppolo. Is that why the O/U so low? * = Over 

New Orleans Saints 1-1 (+4) @ Seattle Seahawks 2-0 (44.5): Seahawks 28-20 

Sunday, 4:25 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: 60% rain; mid-60s) 

Keys: The Saints went from Super Bowl contenders to being written off in a single play thanks to DPoY Aaron Donald. It’s not as if Drew Brees is Patrick Mahomes, but more Tom Brady, in that the physical attributes pale in comparison to the mental attributes and experience. The Saints had already resolved to being a run-first team, but the seamlessness between Brees and head coach Sean Payton isn’t something that just miraculously translates to the back up QB, even if it is an experienced Teddy Bridgewater. That’s basically the gist of it: Cut off the head and the body dies. The Seahawks are lucky to be 2-0 after barely beating the Cincinnati Bengals at home and barley beating a Roethlisbergerless Pittsburgh Steelers team on the road, but the latter setting is key, and the Seahawks should bounce back nicely at home against a reeling Saints team, so long as Seattle’s offensive line can keep Russell Wilson upright. 

Los Angeles Rams 2-0 (-3) v. Cleveland Browns 1-1 (48): Rams 27-23

Sunday, 8:20 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: 60% rain; low 70s) 

Keys: The Browns should be thanking the weather gods or else they might be getting run off their own field Sunday night. Cleveland has been nothing short of underwhelming so far this season, but that’s more the media’s fault than the Browns. The Browns have abandoned all sense to keep Odell Beckham Jr. happy, which includes Baker Mayfield forcing the ball to him under any circumstance. Good luck with the against the Rams, who are just the type of dudes to take advantage of forced passes. Mayfield could be in serious trouble here, because Aaron Donald and the Rams defense are capable of getting after it, and the Browns are having a hard time protecting Mayfield in the first place. If the Browns get beat bad, and the loss includes several forced balls to OBJ over including Jarvis Landry and Nick Chubbs, this ship will sink into Lake Erie by Week 3.

Chicago Bears 1-1 (-4) @ Washington Football Team 0-2 (41): Bears 20-17

Monday, 8:15 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather: Chance rain; high 60s)

Keys: Meh. I’m not sure how many will tune into ESPN’s terrible MNF coverage to see a game between two putrid offenses and one stellar defense, especially with a chance of rain. This essentially means we’ll have a low-scoring game in which the Bears should crush Washington, but the Bears offense doesn’t score enough points with Mitch Trubisky to crush anyone.

 

Stay tuned for Tuesday's Gone: Week 3 #NFL Game Reviews coming Wednesday!

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