PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Tuesday's Gone: Week 1 #NFL Game Reviews OPENING WEEK of the 100TH NFL SEASON EDITION

2019 NFL SEASON

P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A

Tuesday's Gone: Week 1 #NFL Game Reviews OPENING WEEK of the 100^TH NFL SEASON EDITION

2019 REGULAR SEASON: 

9-6-1 .600 (WINS); 6-9-1 .400 (ATS); 14-2 .875 (O/U) 

TOP 5 GAMES:

3-2 .600 (WINS); 2-3 .400 (ATS); 5-0 1.000 (O/U)
 

Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3^rd-down efficiency (3^rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All images from Google with permission to reuse without license* Statistical sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider.

NEW TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON

< Drake voice >

"TOP 5 TOP 5 TOP 5"

 

Pro Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week denoted by an asterisk (*) & watch the money pile up all season!

 

Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers is still elite, but his days are numbered. New head coach Matt LaFleur's days on Earth barely outnumber Rodgers. Buckle up, Packers fans.

Green Bay Packers 0-0 (+3) @ Chicago Bears 0-0 (46.5): Bears 21-20 Packers 10-3

Thursday, 8:20 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Partly cloudy; high 60s)

Keys: Aaron Rodgers is healthy again to start the 2019 season, but Khalil Mack could ruin another Packers season on opening night if he gets a clean hit on the fragile quarterback. This highly-touted Bears defense could give the Packers young new head coach Matt LaFleur fits because Chicago's defense matches up well with every single Green Bay weapon. Regardless, these teams are evenly matched, hence the Bears getting three points at home. Go with the elite defense to win, but not necessarily to cover.

The Bears came out firing on all cylinders Thursday Night and looked as if Aaron Rodgers might be headed to the IR again until things settled down and Mitch Trubisky became the QB everyone was worried about. Not so much about his health so much as Trubisky and the Bears future. 

Tennessee Titans 0-0 (+5.5) v. Cleveland Browns 0-0 (45.5): Browns 27-23 Titans 43-13

Sunday, 1:00 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Partly cloudy; low 70s) 

Keys: Titans kicker Ryan Succop was put on IR Wednesday, which isn’t the end of the world, but you don’t want to lose your veteran kicker 96 hours before opening day, especially one that led the NFL in FG attempts just two seasons ago. Regardless, an overhyped Browns team hosts an underhyped Titans team that matches up very well with them on both sides of the ball, so unless you think losing Ryan Succop and Marcus Mariota looking over his shoulder are worth over 5.5 points, Tennessee is the play.

If you hate the Browns this was the best game ever. If you had the entire Browns offense on your fantasy team you probably hate the fact OBJ made no noise besides the $350K watch he was wearing for some reason, because no one in Cleveland is buying that watch...oh right, t-e-l-e-v-i-s-i-o-n. Sigh...

 

Baltimore Ravens 0-0 (-7) @ Miami Dolphins 0-0 (37.5): Ravens 20-15 Ravens 59-10

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: 20% storms; high 80s)

Keys: The Dolphins essentially waved the white flag for 2019 after trading Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills, but giving seven points on the road on opening week with a sophomore quarterback whose only flaws are accuracy and an inability to get down before taking on big hits is a tough task. The Ravens win, but the Dolphins cover the big opening week spread at home.

Word on the street is Lamar Jackson can throw the ball. My only true O/U loss of the entire week.

 

*Atlanta Falcons 0-0 (+4) @ Minnesota Vikings 0-0 (47.5): Falcons 24-23 Vikings 28-12

Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors) 

Keys: The Falcons come into Minneapolis highly talented at QB and WR and an offensive line mixed with All-Pros and rookies; the Vikings host Atlanta with elite talent at RB and WR and highly rated left tackle Riley Reiff and a rookie at center, which will be a problem against the Falcons Grady Jarrett, one of the best interior linemen in the NFL. The Vikings defense is more hyped, but the Falcons have talent on defense, too.

I'm sorry folks, I messed up. I had the Falcons riding high on a fresh season with Julio Jones getting $66M the day before the game and I simply don't trust Kirk Cousins. I was right about the latter. The Vikings defense seems to be back to form and the Vikings running name controlled the clock. End of story.

 

NY Jets QB Sam Darnold might want to think about just handing it off to newly acquired RB Le'Veon Bell against this great Buffalo Bills defense.

Buffalo Bills 0-0 (+3) @ New York Jets 0-0 (41): Bills 20-17 Bills 17-16

Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; high 70s)

Keys: In yet another evenly-matched game in the early afternoon slate of opening week games, both AFC East teams possess mediocre offenses with sophomore QBs and both teams have elite talent in the defensive backfield. That could spell trouble for either team, but the Bills also have elite talent among their front seven (e.g. Jerry Hughes), which means Sam Darnold could be in for a tough opening week at home. 

They were who we thought they were. 

 

*Washington Team 0-0 (+9.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles 0-0 (45.5): Eagles 30-17 Eagles 32-27

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)

Keys: The Eagles enter 2019 wings spread and beaks out, but 9.5 points on opening week is a lot of points. Washington is awful and Philadelphia is loaded, but it’s hard to trust any line that large on opening day, right? It’s not like Washington has to travel far. Well, upon further review the highest rated players on Washington are an aging Adrian Peterson, often unavailable Jordan Reed and Ryan Kerrigan, who barely out-grades the aforementioned players. In other words, even if they go to rookie Dwayne Haskins for a splash or to shake things up, he has no one to throw it to. Spreads of nearly 10 points are usually red flags for this bettor, especially Week 1, but not when the teams are so mismatched and the talent is all on one side of the field.

Washington led 17-0 in the 2nd quarter before Philadelphia peeled away the off-season funk and got DeSean Jackson loose (8 REC/154 YDS/2 TDs), passing Randy Moss for 2nd all-time with TDs over 50 yards. Jake Elliot kicked a late FG to cover the spread and then Washington scored a TD with six seconds remaining for the backdoor cover and I almost kicked in my television. 

 

Los Angeles Rams 0-0 (-3) @ Carolina Panthers 0-0 (50): Rams 30-24 Rams 30-27

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Sunny; high 80s)

Keys: Las Vegas doesn’t envision much of a Super Bowl hangover for the Rams Week 1 considering they’re traveling across the country to face the Panthers and are giving three points. The truth is the Panthers are no longer defensive juggernauts and the Rams offense are. Add Aaron Donald to the mix against a Cam Newton already facing health questions and the spread becomes clear.

The Rams led 23-13 heading into the 4th quarter and the four points seemed safe, especially after the two teams traded 4th quarter TDs, but the Panthers scored with under two minutes remaining and got the backdoor cover. If the Panthers don't turn the ball over three times they likely win.

 

Kansas City Chiefs 0-0 (-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 0-0 (52): Chiefs 30-27 Chiefs 40-24

Sunday, 1:00 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: Sunny; low 90s) 

Keys: The Jags come into 2019 with a lot to prove for what remains a formidable defense. Unfortunately, they’re running into the league’s top offense led by the reigning MVP in Patrick Mahomes. The Jags mediocre offense should be able to score against the poor Chiefs defense, even with the addition of Frank Clark to Chris Jones, so perhaps the Jags cover, but they won’t win.

Tyreek Hill ended up in the hospital during this game, which was my game highlight. It certainly wasn't falling for the Vegas Sharp trap where I heard so many statistics related to this Jags defense at home that I forgot the Chiefs score at will against anyone, much like most of us forget Sammy Watkins was taken 4th in the draft only a few years ago.

 

The Indianapolis Colts had high hopes for their 2019 season before Andrew Luck suddenly retired.

*Indianapolis Colts 0-0 (+6.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers 0-0 (44.5): Chargers 24-21 Chargers 30-24 OT

Sunday,4:05 PM, Stub Hub Field, Carson, CA (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)

Keys: There’s no doubt Andrew Luck retiring was probably the worst thing that could’ve happened to a dark horse Super Bowl contender weeks before the season started, but Luck’s 2018 success wasn’t a solo act. The Colts finally got their act together and put a decent offensive line around what is now Jacoby Brissett. The same weapons exist for Indianapolis, but will they get open against this very good Chargers defense? Will Brissett avoid the Chargers elite pass rush? The Chargers offense could be without Melvin Gordon, but Austin Eckler is a fine replacement. Whether Eckler or Gordon, the Chargers could have a tough time moving the ball against a good Colts defense with their own elite pass rush after signing Justin Houston this off-season.  

It's safe to say the Chargers didn't miss Melvin Gordon (hold out). Austin Eckler scored three TDs on only 58 rushing yards on 12 carries, two of them coming on passes from the ageless Phillip Rivers (333 PASS/3 TDs/1 INT). The Colts settled down and made a game of it, but the team now leans upon Marlon Mack (25 CAR/174 YDs/1 TD) and not the retired Andrew Luck, and the slight change in philosophy was evident.

 

*Cincinnati Bengals 0-0 (+9.5) @ Seattle Seahawks 0-0 (44): Seahawks 24-13 Seahawks 21-20

Sunday, 4:05 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: Chance rain; low 70s)

Keys: The Bengals are one of the worst offenses in the NFL, at least according to former Bengals WR Chris Collinsworth’s investment darling Pro Football Focus, and they face a Seahawks defense that hasn’t really faded despite the departure of key All-Pro defenders. Trading for Jadeveon Clowney days before the season starts certainly helps. The Bengals still have talent on the defensive front (Geno Atkins; Carlos Dunlap) and in the defensive backfield (Jessie Bates), despite a terrible LB crew, and the Seahawks remain one of the most offensive o-lines in the NFL besides left tackle Duane Brown, so Russell Wilson might still be running for his life Week 1. The bottom line is the Seahawks will score enough to win and the Bengals won’t score enough to cover.

I had this game as one of my Top 5 Games and I fumbled. So did everyone else. Even diehard Bengals fans didn't expect a one-point game between a playoff bound team playing at home in one of the toughest stadiums in the NFL and one of the worst teams in the NFL. Even if you puff your chest out and brag about taking the points, no one on Earth had Andy Dalton throwing for 414 passing yards against this Seahawks defense. Chalk it up to one of those rare Week 1 shockers. 

 

New York Giants 0-0 (+7) @ Dallas Cowboys 0-0 (45.5): Cowboys 27-21 Cowboys 35-17

Sunday, 4:25 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)

Keys: Now that Ezekiel Elliot is back from his hold-out we have nothing to talk about. Well, except for the next round of Cowboys contracts. Truth be told, the Cowboys are one of the five best teams in the NFL on paper, especially with Elliot back. The Giants might be one of the worst teams in the NFL on paper or on anything and got worse this off-season when they traded Odell Beckham Jr. Well, the latter remains to be seen. Regardless, NFC East games are always toss-ups considering the deep rivalries that have developed over the decades, especially Week 1. New York could run Saquon Barkley to death and chew the clock up enough the Cowboys don’t cover, but Dallas might have the best LB crew in the league. Dallas is also 4-0 against New York when Elliot plays since Elliot came into the league and this Giants team isn’t talented enough on the road to make things any different this time around.

The Giants scored first and things were looking good. Then came the other 52 minutes of the game where Dallas won 35-10. Dak Prescott (405 PASS/4 TDs) interviewed for a huge extension and it went rather well against the Giants porous defense. Look for a lot more of this from the Giants this season: Saquon Barkley rushing for over 100 yards and Evan Engram gaining over 100 yards and Eli Manning looking mostly pedestrian in a loss that features Daniel Jones in the final two minutes. 

Detroit Lions 0-0 (-2.5) @ Arizona Cardinals 0-0 (47): Lions 24-20 TIE 27-27 OT

Sunday, 4:25 PM, Univ. of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors) 

Keys: The Cardinals might be the worst team in the NFL and certainly have the worst offensive line in the league, which will be tough for #1 pick Kyler Murray. Hey, the Cardinals can always tank and then draft Jalen Hurts #1 next year. Shout out Sooners! Joking aside this Detroit Lions defense is sneaky good, with highly rated players on the defensive front (Tre Flowers; Damon Harrison Jr. & Da'Shawn Hand) and in the defensive backfield (Tracy Walker; Darius Slay), which makes things even more difficult for Murray. The Cardinals have veteran skill guys like David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald to assist Murray through his first game, but he’ll be running for his life against a team with equal weapons on the other side, but with a veteran gunslinger in Matthew Stafford throwing the ball.

This might have been the most infuriating game of the week. The Lions led 24-16 with six minutes remaining. Detroit need only pick up a first down to win the game. While executing that first down a Lions assistant coach called a TO as the ball was snapped. What do you think happened? Remember, it's the Lions. You guessed it. TO granted. First down not secured. Punt. The Lions let rookie Kyler Murray get his confidence back and lead the Cardinals to score the tying TD and two-point conversion with under a minute to go. To be honest, I'm shocked Matt Prater even hit the tying FG in OT to secure the tie for the Lions. NFL betting, eh? 

 

All eyes will be on Kyler Murray Sunday, the Arizona Cardinals 5’9” QB they took first in the 2019 NFL Draft, although it may be hard to see him.

SanFrancisco 49ers 0-0 (+1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0-0 (50): Bucs 23-20 49ers 31-17

Sunday, 4:25 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Sunny; low 90s)

Keys: The Bruce Arians era begins in Tampa Bay and time will tell how long it takes for Jameis Winston to drive Arians insane eating his hands. The 49ers are the expert’s sleeper team to do what, I have no idea. The 49ers play in one of the youngest and most talented divisions in the NFL and paid Jimmy Garoppolo $135M just to see him injure himself and have no-name Nick Mullens perform better in his wake. The 49ers spent big money on two RBs just to hand the keys to Matt Breida, an undrafted free agent making pennies in the dollar compared to his peers. The money is irrelevant, of course, but the decisions leading up to it obviously aren’t. On paper the Bucs are the better offense and defense and Arians’ absence for a year doesn’t rank him that far behind alleged genius Kyle Shannahan, so even if the game is a pick the spread makes no sense for a 49ers team traveling across the country Week 1. 

This game was uglier than advertised. The teams combined for 551 total yards and six turnovers, four belonging to the Bucs, who ultimately lost the game because two of those TOs were pick-sixes. In other words, if Jameis Winston would stop messing around and get glasses, the Bucs likely win 17-16 and everyone wants to kill Las Vegas instead of the Bucs. 

 

Pittsburgh Steelers 0-0 (+5.5) @ New England Patriots 0-0 (50.5): Patriots 27-21 Patriots 33-3

Sunday, 8:20PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Sunny; mid-70s)

Keys: The biggest stories here are whether a 42-year old Tom Brady can keep this up while Ben Roethlisberger is playing without Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell for the first time in years. It remains to be seen whether or not the Steelers can once again replace All-Pro WRs with blossoming super stars, this time Ju Ju Smith-Schuster, or whether Flash Gordon can stay off the weed long enough to become a serious weapon for New England. One thing is clear: These remain two of the best teams in the NFL, not just the AFC, and this game represents one of the best match ups of opening week. The key to this game will be the Patriots offensive line, especially with new additions to the offensive line days before the season opener due to injury, against the Steelers pass rush and whether New England can pound the Pittsburgh defense into submission with their against-the-grain run attack in an air raid era. Oh Bill Belichick, you sneaky bastard. 

Antonio Brown was traded to the Patriots hours after I published my weekly article, so not only was his trade not part of my Oakland Raiders write-up, it certainly wasn't part of my Patriots-Steelers write-up, which certainly would've included some trolling. Truth be told, the Patriots clearly don't even need Antonio Brown, but the Steelers clearly do. New England offense, led by Tom Brady (343 PASS/3 TDs), shredded the Steelers defense and the Patriots defense, led by Stephon Gilmore, suffocated the Steelers offense. What seemed like the ultimate Week 1 match up was really a tale of two teams trending in opposite directions.

*Houston Texans 0-0 (+7) @ New Orleans Saints 0-0 (53.5): Texans 28-27 Saints 30-28

Monday, 8:10 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)

Keys: Probably the Game of the Week, I have no idea how the Texans are getting seven points. The Saints have lost five straight season openers leading back to 2014, including two home openers (2016;2018). The Saints are no longer door mats on defense, but the Texans are loaded with weapons, including Duke Johnson, who replaced the injured Lamar Miller and continues to fly under the radar as one of the most productive backs in the NFL, especially catching passes, not that Houston needs help with that. Deshaun Watson is fast becoming what Drew Brees has been for a decade, but with legs. Speaking of Brees, the Saints offense is well-known, but people have forgotten about this stout Texans defense, which was good enough they didn’t have a problem letting go of Jadeveon Clowney. In fact, the Texans defense matches up better against the Saints offense than the Saints defense matches up against the Texans offense. This game is the LOCK OF THE WEEK for the Houston Texans.

No one on Earth was hoping Will Lutz would miss the game-winning FG more than I was. My score remained perfect with 37 seconds remaining with the Saints backed into their own territory after the subsequent kick off. Then Drew Brees happened. Brees got the Saints to the Texans 40-yard line, just within the range for Lutz's indoor foot. Lutz's 57-yard kick was true and my perfect call was ruined. So was the win, but not the cover and the over. We take the good with the bad over here at PFM.

 

Denver Broncos 0-0 (-1) @ Oakland Raiders 0-0 (43): Broncos 23-17 Raiders 24-16

Monday, 10:20 PM, Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, CA (Weather: Clear; mid-60s)

Keys: Holy sh*t the situation in Oakland has become hilarious for everyone outside of Oakland, CA and Antonio Brown’s inner circle. Even if the Raiders were on track with Brown I wouldn’t hold out much hope for one of the worst teams in the NFL, but this team is in shambles already and the season hasn’t even begun. The Broncos are scary on the defensive front and have enough weapons to score on these hapless Raiders. 

Did I say Broncos 23-17? I meant Raiders 24-16. The Raiders lost Antonio Brown in the hours this article was publishing, so as up in the air as Brown's status was heading into the game, there was still a chance he'd play and maybe even ball out. Instead, Brown was traded to the New England Patriots while the Raiders were left holding the pieces of another failed trade/acquisition/draft. So what did the Raiders do? They went out and beat the brakes off a better Broncos team at home to get their crowd back into it as they chanted "FUCK AB!" The game belonged to rookie Josh Jacobs (85 RUSH/2 TDs) and his new face allowed the Oakland crowd to forget a few things Monday night, if only for a few hours: AB was traded to the hated Patriots and the Raiders are moving to Las Vegas next season. 

Stay tuned for Week 2: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) coming Thursday!

 

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