2019 NFL SEASON
P R O F O O T B A L L M
E D I A
Week 2: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
2019 REGULAR SEASON:
9-6-1 .600 (WINS); 6-9-1
.400 (ATS); 14-2 .875 (O/U)
TOP 5 GAMES:
3-2 .600
Note/Key (when
applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics
(abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential
(PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down
efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP);
Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN);
Against the spread (ATS). *All images from Google with permission to reuse
without license* Statistical sources include, but not limited to: Pro
Football Reference; Pro Football Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com.
Point spreads and over/under figures are taken from the opening lines via Vegas
Insider
NEW
TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON
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Drake voice >
"TOP
5 TOP 5 TOP 5"
Pro
Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week for either the spread, O/U or both denoted by an asterisk (*). Roll with our Top 5 and watch the money pile up all season!
Panthers QB Cam Newton might be laughing at Jameis Winston's two pick-sixes last week, but it's Newton's vegan arm that can't throw downfield more than 20 yards anymore.
Tampa
Bay Buccaneers 0-1 (+6.5) @ Carolina Panthers 0-1 (49.5): Panthers
24-20
Thursday, 8:20 PM,
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather:
30% rain; mid-70s)
Keys: The Panthers defense might not be what it
used to be, but it’s still good enough to handle this Bucs offense, as long as
Jameis Winston is willing to keep throwing it to them. Cam Newton is already
facing his own scrutiny, but the jury is still out on whether his weak arm is
the result of off-season surgery or not enough protein in his vegan diet.
Expect another heavy dose of Christian McCaffery on a short week in what could
end up a messy game weather-wise. I’m a little surprised by the spread, but the
under seems like a lock.
Sunday, 1:00
PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Sunny; mid-80s)
Keys: The 49ers come most of the way across the
country to play the early game to face an equally inept Bengals team, who
actually took the Seattle Seahawks to the brink a week ago. In fact, Andy Dalton
had the best game of his NFL career against the Seahawks great defense, and
without AJ Green. Cincinnati will be without Green again Sunday, but the game
will depend on their defensive front and if they can get to Jimmy Garoppolo.
Vegas considers the 49ers the better team here despite the spread, but the
Bengals will do just enough at home against an offense playing at “10am”, an offense
that only managed 17 points at home the week before.
*Los
Angeles Chargers 1-0 (-2.5) @ Detroit
Lions 0-0-1 (48): Chargers 27-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Ford Field,
Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: This is one of those smash the over type of
games. Both of these teams have the offensive weapons capable of scoring
20-something points in their sleep and the Chargers don’t usually get to play
indoors. Both teams possess good defenses, perhaps even great in Los Angeles,
but remember, even good defenses yield 20 points in today’s NFL. Both teams
also blew large leads and had to go to OT. Both teams can’t blow this game. * = Chargers cover
Minnesota Vikings 1-0 (+3) @ Green Bay Packers 1-0 (44.5):
Packers 23-21
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Mostly sunny; low 70s)
Keys: The Vikings defense seems to be back after
holding the Falcons to just 12 points at home last week. The Packers defense
is, well, here. The Chicago Bears are no offensive juggernauts, but the Packers
stifled them on Opening Night. That won’t be the case against the Vikings, who
possess far more weapons on offense, including a devastating rush attack. The
weather won’t be an issue, but the Packers are a different team at home, where
Aaron Rodgers seems to perform miracles. The Packers are slightly less
talented, but have home field advantage and a few extra days of rest.
Tennessee Titans QB Marcus Mariota managed to stave off backup Ryan Tannehill one more week.
Indianapolis Colts 0-1 (+3) @ Tennessee Titans 1-0 (44.5): Titans 27-23
Sunday, 1:00
PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Sunny; low 90s)
Keys: This indoors Colts team could be gassed by
the second quarter if it’s really going to be in the low 90s. The Titans just went
into Cleveland Browns and shut their weapons down, but you could say the same
thing about the Colts with the Los Angeles Chargers. The Colts are the more
talented team, but the Titans are playing in their home opener in the blazing
Sun. Look for the Titans to squeak out the win as the game goes over.
New
England Patriots 1-0 (-19) @ Miami
Dolphins 0-1 (47.5): Patriots 34-13
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium,
Miami, FL (Weather: 50% rain; high 80s)
Keys: Wow. 19 points. The biggest question here
is: How much will Bill Belichick embarrass Dolphins coach Brian Flores, former
defensive coordinator for the Patriots? The truth is, a three-TD win isn’t exactly
embarrassing and Belichick has done worse to people he’s worked with longer. The
whole “New England struggles in Miami” argument doesn’t apply this time and the
weather only helps the Patriots. Nothing can be said about Miami that already
hasn’t been said: It’s a great party town.
Buffalo Bills 1-0 (-1.5)
@ New York Giants 0-1 (43.5): Bills
23-20
Sunday,
1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: 30% rain; low 80s)
Keys: When is the last time the Bills were
favored on the road? I’d have research check, but that’s me. The Giants are
obviously in perpetual tailspin mode so long as Eli Manning is flying the plane
with a mediocre offensive line. Considering the Giants entire offense will go
through Evan Engram and Saqoun Barkley and the Bills have some monsters on
defense, this is a 21st-century Bills road cover I can get behind.
Seattle Seahawks 1-0 (+3.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 0-1
(46.5): Steelers
24-23
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)
Keys: The Seahawks are coming across the country
for the infamous “10am” game start and the Steelers simply can’t afford to go
0-2 in a division with the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens. That should
be a recipe for a Steelers win. That said, Pittsburgh could have trouble moving
the ball against this Seahawks defense, although Andy Dalton didn’t, which
should strengthen my initial point. The Seahawks can’t possibly let another QB
light them up, but Pittsburgh can’t afford to lose. One thing is for sure, we’re
in for a great game, probably the best of the 1pm games outside of the NFC
North. Steelers win, but not by 4+ points.
Dallas Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliot should hit his stride against a Washington team struggling on both sides of the ball.
*Dallas
Cowboys 1-0 (-5) @ Washington Football Team 0-1 (46.5): Cowboys 30-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, FedEx Field,
Landover, MD (Weather: Partly Sunny; mid 80s)
Keys: Divisional rival notwithstanding, this
should be a route. Ezekiel Elliot is getting his legs under him, Dak Prescott and
the receiver corps is balling, the Cowboys defense looks great, while
Washington will be without Jordan Reed and RB Darrius Guice. * = Cowboys cover
*Arizona
Cardinals 0-0-1 (+13.5) @ Baltimore Ravens 1-0 (46.5):
Ravens 27-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, M&T Bank
Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Partly
Sunny; mid-80s)
Keys: This game either features the future of the
NFL or the latest duel-threat QBs to flash in the pan. Both Lamar Jackson and
Kyler Murray are off-the-charts athletes, but both possess flaws easily taken
advantage of by any opposing defenses. The only problem is the Ravens are the
only team of these two with a defense that can take advantage. The Cardinals
don’t stand much of a chance, hence the spread, but Terrell Suggs homecoming
alone is worth more than 13.5 points.
Jacksonville
Jaguars 0-1 (+9) @ Houston Texans 0-1
(43.5): Texans
24-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, NRG Stadium,
Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Garder Minshew makes his first NFL start
Sunday, but let’s be honest, is it really different than Nick Foles? If you
take one season and a few playoff runs, including a Super Bowl LII MVP, from
Foles’ career it isn’t just bad, it’s retirement-worthy. Ask Foles. Joking
aside - and a speedy recovery to Foles - the only thing the Jaguars have going
for them is a talented defense, but the Texans just scored 28 points on the
road against one of those (New Orleans Saints). The Texans are banged up,
too, with DeAndre Hopkins questionable and Deshaun Watson facing back issues,
whether he’s on the injury report or not. Regardless, I don’t see this Texans
beating many teams by more than nine points, especially against a divisional
opponent with a talented defense.
Sunday, 4:05PM, Oakland
Coliseum, Oakland, CA (Weather: Sunny;
mid-70s)
Keys: It must be pretty
disheartening as a Raiders player to see this O/U and figure Las Vegas assumes
your opponent will score 40 of those points. Now that math obviously doesn’t
work out with the spread, but we’re not the handicappers, are we? No, we’re
just the people that take advantage of those lines. The only question here is,
much like the New England v. Miami game, will the Raiders score enough to warrant
playing the over? Yes, but only because this Chiefs defense made Gardner
Minshew look good. Who, you ask? Exactly.
Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has built quite an offensive juggernaut.
Chicago Bears 0-1 (-2.5)
@ Denver Broncos 0-1 (40.5): Bears 21-20
Sunday,
4:25 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Mostly
Sunny; high 80s)
Keys: A really well-rested Bears team with an
incredible defense takes on a Broncos team that just lost at home to the
Oakland Raiders hours after finding out they’d lost the only player on their
team worth turning in for. In other words, the Broncos aren’t much more than a
talented defense with advantageous air if playing at home. That comes into play
here, however, because the Bears offense is putrid. The lowest O/U of the week
by far exists for a reason, but the thin air begs the long throw and long FGs. Take
the over as these teams try to get back on track offensively.
*New
Orleans Saints 1-0 (+2.5) @ Los Angeles Rams 1-0 (52.5):
Rams 30-27
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Los Angeles
Memorial Stadium, Los Angeles, CA (Weather:
Sunny; high 80s)
Keys: The Rams screwed the Saints out of getting
beat by the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LIII last year and no one has
forgotten about it, especially the sports talk shows. The Saints circled this
game the second the schedule came out and will likely throw everything including
the kitchen sink at the Rams, but the problem is, as with any dome team, things
are much different outdoors. Are they though? A light breeze in the warm Sun
isn’t exactly the outdoor conditions experts say Drew Brees can’t handle
anymore. Both teams match up as well Sunday as they did that fateful day in January
and both teams are coming off close wins in which they scored 30 points. I’m
surprised the O/U isn’t higher. * = Over
*Philadelphia
Eagles 1-0 (-1.5) @ Atlanta Falcons 0-1 (51):
Eagles 30-24
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Mercedes Benz
Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather:
Indoors)
Keys: Las Vegas must expect a huge turnaround by
a Falcons team that was destroyed at Minnesota last week against an Eagles team
that essentially destroyed Washington the same day. Despite being favored in
the opening spread, Las Vegas basically sees an even match up. I’m not sure I
do. Julio Jones has a great history against the Eagles, but it doesn’t often
translate to TDs, and speaking of TDs, DeSean Jackson is a machine that makes
them. The bottom line is the Eagles have slightly more talent on offense and a
lot more talent on defense, so the only real question is whether the game goes
over and the obvious answer is yes. * = Eagles cover
Cleveland Browns 0-1 (-6.5) @ New York Jets 0-1
(46): Browns
23-20
Monday, 8:15 PM,
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Clear; mid-60s)
Keys: The Browns were giving 2.5 points before
Sam Darnold got mono (George Costanza voice: “-nucleosis?!?”) and ruined
another Jets season. The Browns season will be ruined, too, if they lose Monday
night outside NYC. Sam Darnold hasn’t exactly lit the league on fire, and
Trevor Siemian was the Denver Broncos starter for a while, so he’s not inept.
Do you trust the Browns against any team for nearly a TD after the ay
they played and then followed up with attitudes instead of humility? I don’t.
The Browns are already wrist deep in distractions and the Jets are already
circling the wagons around their creepy coach. The Jets cover the spread and keep
the Browns offense at bay for the under.
Stay tuned for Tuesday’s Gone: Week 2 #NFL Game Reviews coming Wednesday!
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