2021 NFL SEASON
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Tuesday's Gone: Week 19 #NFL Game Reviews
WILD CARD ROUND
WILD CARD ROUND:
4-2 .667 (WINS); 2-4 .333 (ATS); 2-3-1 .400 (O/U)
2021 REGULAR SEASON TOTALS:
177-94-1 .653 (WINS); 153-117-2 .567 (ATS); 137-132-3 .509 (O/U)
Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): EWL (Expected W-L record); SoS (Strength of Schedule); SRS (Simple Rating System from PFR); Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 1st downs (1st); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); P/R NY/A (Pass/Rush Net yards/attempt); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All images from Google using Creative Commons license unless otherwise stated (including source)*
DISCLAIMER: PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA IS FOR ANALYZING NFL FOOTBALL GAMES AND IS NOT A BETTING WEBSITE
Good luck at the window this season!
The future might be Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals, but the present is the Las Vegas Raiders and their insane momentum heading into the Wild Card Round of the 2022 NFL Playoffs.
5 Las Vegas Raiders 10-7 (-5.5) v. 4 Cincinnati Bengals 10-7 (48.5): Raiders 28-27 Bengals 26-19
Saturday, 4:30 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Cloudy; low 40s)
Keys: The Bengals haven't been to the playoffs in over 30 years and the Raiders are one of the best stories in recent memory, but the rollercoaster ride the Raiders have been on can't last forever, can it? Las Vegas has won four straight games by an average of 3 ppg to go from losing record and no playoffs to the 5th seed. It'll be a battle of two of the league's top passing offenses, but only the Bengals have the talent to consistently get after the QB (one sack from being t-9th in the league). The Bengals are obviously the better team, but momentum is a hell of a thing in the NFL, and the Raiders have momentum in spades.
The Raiders almost made it interesting in the last few minutes of the game, but the Bengals prevailed.
6 New England Patriots 10-7 (+4.5) @ 3 Buffalo Bills 11-6 (44): Bills 27-23 Bills 47-17
Saturday, 8:15 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: Windy; <10 degrees)
Keys: These teams have played three times in the past two months and this is the second game where severe weather will play a role. Instead of 50 mph winds this time we have near-zero temperatures with slightly less wind. This might be the rubber match between the two teams, but the #BillsMafia is home and ready to jump through tables and the Patriots simply don't have the offense to play catch up if the Bills get off to a quick start. The Bills also aren't nearly as good as their fans and some of the NFL world thinks they are as only five of their 11 wins came against winning teams (KC; NE; MIAx2; NO), and Bill Belichick always has a trick up his cut off sleeves <cough>, but the Patriots simply peaked too early. Look for New England to cover despite missing key elements on both sides of the ball against a healthy Bills team.
It's pretty clear it's Buffalo's time and the Patriots are not ready, despite the many key pieces missing Saturday.
7 Philadelphia Eagles 9-8 (+8) @ 2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13-4 (46): Buccaneers 26-21 Buccaneers 31-15
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: 80% storms; high 60s)
Keys: The Eagles are the league’s top rushing team and the Buccaneers are the league’s 3rd best run defense, so something has to give, and that could be a problem for Jalen Hurts considering the Buccaneers rank 7th in the league in sacks. The Eagles also didn’t have a single win against a winning team besides the New Orleans Saints, who you may remember, went above .500 Week 18. Despite all of this, these Buccaneers haven’t shown us anything to suggest they can keep a scrappy Eagles team from covering eight points, especially in bad weather.
The Buccaneers led 31-0 at one point partly due to three Eagles TOs.
6 San Francisco 49ers 10-7 (-3) @ 3 Dallas Cowboys 12-5 (50.5): Cowboys 28-27 49ers 23-17
Sunday, 4:30 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The classic battle from the 80s and 90s is back and the Cowboys finally have about the same level of talent on both sides of the ball as they did back then. The 49ers are sneaky talented, too, meaning you won’t see them in national commercials, but their skill guys on offense jump off the television and are well known to football types (e.g George Kittle, Deebo Samuel & Brandon Aiyuk). Yet, interestingly enough, the 49ers defense is the one highly ranked, as is the Cowboys offense. Now we have a modern classic on our hands. There’s a reason the public has bet the 49ers within a FG at some books and it has as much to do with the 49ers talent as it does the Cowboys historical stage fright the past quarter-century. At the end of the day Dak Prescott will put this team on his shoulders and carry them as he has much of the season, but not without Cowboys fans losing their minds in the process.
Stop me if you've heard this before: The Cowboys dominated the regular season just to get outclassed early in the playoffs.
7 Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7-1 (+12.5) @ 2 Kansas City Chiefs 12-5 (46): Chiefs 27-18 Chiefs 42-21
Sunday, 8:15 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Clear; low 30s)
Keys: There’s a scenario in some dimension where TJ Watt erupts for the game of his life and gives Patrick Mahomes fits, leading to the upset, but that’s not a very likely scenario here. Then again the Steelers have the 9th-ranked passing defense and lead the NFL in sacks. Then again, the Chiefs are tied for 2nd in sacks allowed, because Mahomes and his top receivers have shown they can fold under heavy pass pressure (13 INTs). So the limiting factor is probably the Steelers offense, which even on a great day can’t keep up with a sacked Chiefs team, but a team that defends their opponents best attribute and gets after the QB usually doesn’t lose by nearly two TDs.
The Steelers went up 7-0 on a TJ Watt fumble return and it seemed like my unlikely scenario could actually play out until reality set in.
5 Arizona Cardinals 11-6 (+3.5) @ 4 Los Angeles Rams 12-5 (49.5): Rams 28-23 Rams 34-11
Monday, 8:15 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Not this game again. The Rams are 9-1 in the last ten games v. the Cardinals, losers of four of their last five games since losing to these Rams Week 14, who are simply not the same team without Deandre Hopkins and JJ Watt. The only thing that could go wrong in this game would be Matthew Stafford, which means I might’ve just jinxed the Rams.
The Cardinals held the ball for nearly 12 fewer minutes and turned the ball over twice and the Rams domination over Arizona continues as the Cardinals second half nose dive comes to an abrupt end.
Stay tuned for PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Week 20: #NFL Game Predictions (w spreads & analysis) DIVISIONAL ROUND EDITION coming Saturday!
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