2021 NFL SEASON
Good luck at the window this season!
4 Cincinnati Bengals 11-7 (+3.5) @ 1 Tennessee Titans 12-5 (47.5): Bengals 27-23 Bengals 16-13
Saturday, 4:30 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Sunny; high 30s)
Keys: The heart says Derrick Henry is back for the top seed in the AFC, but the head says Henry hasn't played since Week 9 and the rolling Bengals have the 5th-best run defense while the rusty Titans have the 7th-worst passing defense.
Those who follow my personal account on Twitter know that I cried over the Saturday games because at the last minute, with the knowledge of a few more telling stats (e.g. CIN 1-6 v. top-15 rushing teams, etc.), decided to change my picks (but with the underdog still covering). Turns out the place I was making the changes from didn't have great service so when I clicked 'save' it never took. Sometimes we get lucky in the gambling world, but there was nothing lucky about Ryan Tannehill throwing 3 INTs or Derrick Henry being rusty as predicted (20 CAR for 62 YDS). The Bengals kicked a FG as time expired and moved on to the AFC Championship for the first time in over 30 years.
6 San Francisco 49ers 11-7 (+5.5) @ 1 Green Bay Packers 13-4 (47): 49ers 27-24 49ers 13-10
Saturday, 8:15 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Windy; low <10)
Keys: The question is whether the 49ers explosive plays can keep pace with the Packers and the truth is, yes. Besides that the Packers are coming off a loss to the Detroit Lions and a week to stew on losing to the worst team in the league not called the Jacksonville Jaguars, while the 49ers seem to be getting hotter by the week. Jimmy G is the deciding factor here with the 49ers pass rush coming in a close second. I'd be shocked if the 49ers didn't cover the 5.5 points and I wouldn't be surprised if they pulled off the upset.
People will blame the Packers special teams (e.g. blocked punt retuned for a TD), but the 49ers held the supposed best QB in the league and one of the best offenses to 263 total yards and 10 points. Maybe Aaron Rodgers (0-4 v. SF in the playoffs) should've concentrated more on the 49ers than making statements about covid and the Whitehouse the day before the game. The 49ers kicked the game-winning FG as time expired to advance to the NFC Championship game for the second time in a decade while the Packers have to deal with Karen Rodgers all offseason.
4 Los Angeles Rams 13-5 (+3) @ 2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14-4 (48): Buccaneers 28-24 Rams 30-27
Sunday, 3:00 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)
Keys: The Rams costly declining super stars are suddenly pulling their weight and suddenly Matthew Stafford doesn't have to rely solely on Cooper Kupp now that OBJ has arrived. Another piece on the opposite side of the field in Von Miller has taken some of the pressure off Aaron Donald, making life miserable for opposing QBs the pat few weeks. The Rams are hot, but it hard to bet against Tom Brady.
Yet a third game I attempted to change before posting, but all I meant to do here was change the score to TB 28-27, which would've had the Rams covering. I have to take the good with the bad. The Buccaneers were down 20-3 at the half before Tom Brady and the Buccaneers stormed back to tie the game 27-27 with 42 seconds remaining, specifically on a Mike Evans TD that made Jalen Ramsey look foolish after Ramsey insisted on covering Evans in an animated fashion. Matthew Stafford then did his best Tom Brady impersonation and found Cooper Kupp within FG range and the rest is history, as should the fact that the first three Divisional Playoff games were all won on a FG as time expired.
3 Buffalo Bills 12-6 (+1.5) @ 2 Kansas City Chiefs 13-5 (54): Chiefs 30-27 Chiefs 42-36 OT
Sunday, 6:30 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Clear; low 30s)
Keys: The Chiefs have been waiting all season for revenge on this Bills from when Buffalo beat them up at their lowest point of the season and there's really not much else to say because look who's hosting.
This game lived up to every ounce of hype leading up to it, with both teams combining for 28 points in the 4th quarter alone to go to OT. The Bills thought they had the game won with 13 seconds remaining, but the Bills made two colossal errors both coaching and kicking and gave the ball right back to Patrick Mahomes with 13 seconds left and my Chiefs +700 bet to win the Super Bowl is alive and well. Bills fans might struggle with the same loss for the second year in a row, and with the OT rules, apparently, but take solace in the fact they'll be here every year for the foreseeable future.
Stay tuned for PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Week 21: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) CHAMPIONSHIP EDITION coming Saturday!
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