2021 NFL SEASON
Good luck at the window this season!
Atlanta Falcons 7-8 (+14.5) @ Buffalo Bills 9-6 (44): Bills 31-14 Bills 29-15
Sunday, 1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: 100% snow; high 20s)
Keys: The Bills smell chum in the water with the subpar Falcons coming into town from the deep south in the midst of a snow storm and the chance to either seal up divisional title or risk being on the outside looking in. That’s the recipe for covering 14.5 points against a team only two games behind Buffalo on paper.
<Brushes shoulders off>
New York Giants 4-11 (+6) @ Chicago Bears 5-10 (36.5): Bears 23-13 Bears 29-3
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Snow clearing; low 20s)
Keys: For integrity purposes I’ll preview this game.
Nope.
Kansas City Chiefs 11-4 (-4) v. Cincinnati Bengals 9-6 (51): Bengals 28-27 Bengals 34-31
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Rain stopping; low 40s)
Keys: The Chiefs need only win out and they secure the top seed in the AFC and the bye that goes with it. The same thing can be said about the Bengals and the AFC North, although the Bengals could back into the AFC lead with lots of help, including winning this game. You might thinks this motivates the Bengals, but strangely enough they’re better on the road (5-2) than at home (4-4). These two teams are similar in many areas, with the Bengals slightly trailing in most on both sides of the ball, but one thing that sets them apart is TO and pass protection, where the Chiefs excel (+3; 27 sacks allowed) and the Bengals don’t (-2; 47 sacks allowed). In fact, if we’re being honest, the only thing the Bengals excel at over the Chiefs is run defense, but the Chiefs don’t run the ball anyway (21st rush attempts), and with Clyde Edwards-Helaire out that makes it even more obsolete. The Bengals should be good for a long time, but there’s a reason Cincinnati are 4-point underdogs at home at 9-6.
Ja'Marr Chase (11 REC; 266 YDs; 3 TDs) had a record day with the help of Joe Borrow (30-39 and 4 TDs on 446 PYDs) and after nearly 1,000 passing yards and 8 TDs in two weeks suddenly the question Sunday was "Who would you want over the next five years, Burrow or Patrick Mahomes?" It's funny how quickly this league can move on from the "greatest QB in NFL history", a title adorned on the young Mahomes (2 TDs on 259 PYDs) far too quickly when the offensive template couldn't have been set up any better with skill positions and coaching upon his arrival in Kansas City. The Chiefs led 28-17 at the half, but the Bengals scored 17 again in the second half while holding the Chiefs to three points, which tied the game 31-31 with just over six minutes remaining. The Bengals then marched down the field taking all six minutes and hit the game-winning FG as time expired. Now the Bengals head to the playoffs for the first time in years after winning the AFC North, arguably the toughest division in the NFL.
Miami Dolphins 8-7 (+3.5) @ Tennessee Titans 10-5 (40): Dolphins 23-20 Titans 34-3
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: 40% rain; low 40s)
Keys: This game is similar to the KC@CIN in that the Titans are battling for the top seed in the AFC as well as the AFC South title, while the Dolphins, once thought to be canned, could actually make the playoffs with some help. Miami is also white hot, winners of seven straight games after losing seven straight games. So the pattern would suggest they lose, however, a win sets up at showdown with the New England Patriots in Miami next week in which they could make what seemed impossible just a month ago into a reality. The Titans have been floundering since the loss of Derrick Henry (4-3), giving up their lead in the AFC and letting the Indianapolis Colts climb back into the AFC South. Neither of these teams score much and both teams are nearly identical on the defensive side of the ball, statistically, except in two glaring areas: The Dolphins are 1st in sacks and the Titans are -5 in TO differential. Miami should not only cover against the anxious Titans, they might win.
The Dolphins clearly weren't up to the task of battling the New England Patriots for the final playoff spot next week, because even if the Patriots hadn't won the Dolphins didn't hold up there end of the bargain. The Titans, however, took care of business despite their own woes and now could be getting Derrick Henry back for the 2022 playoffs. You have to hand it to the Titans, who after looking unbeatable at times with Henry, became pedestrian as they struggled to score points. Now they've secured the AFC South and a playoff berth and could be getting one of the best overall players in the NFL back just in time.
Las Vegas Raiders 8-7 (+8) @ Indianapolis Colts 9-6 (45): Colts 24-17 Raiders 23-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: You know it’s bad for Carson Wentz when the world thinks the Colts can easily beat the Raiders without him, but that’s great news for Indianapolis, although the Colts have to win out if they want to win the AFC South, a seemingly impossible feat at mid-season. The Raiders have averaged 10.5 ppg (2-2) since their monster OT win over the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving, and although they’ve only given up 14.6 ppg over those four games, the Colts averaged 27.8 ppg during the same four-game span and Las Vegas has the 19th ranked rush defense to face Jonathan Taylor. Regardless, eight points is a lot to cover against a defense playing well against a Colts team potentially without their starting QB.
The Colts playoff chances just took a serious hit after the team that looked Super Bowl bound the past month lost to the team that now has a chance at the playoffs after being left for dead following scandal after scandal. For what it's worth the Raiders are facing another DUI scandal this week. Jonanthan Taylor (20 CAR; 108 RYDs; 1 TD) had another stellar day in the backfield and Dereck Carr threw 2 INTs, but the Raiders drove down the field in under two minutes remaining and kicked the game-winning FG 1:56 after the Colts kicked the game-tying FG.
Jacksonville Jaguars 2-13 (+16.5) @ New England Patriots 1-1 (41.5): Patriots 24-6 Patriots 50-10
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: 30% rain; high 40s)
Keys: In a matter of a few weeks the Patriots went from potentially winning the AFC to potentially being on the outside looking in if they even tie the Jaguars and the Miami Dolphins win Sunday, setting up a show down in Miami during the unprecedented Week 18 finale. The more accurate way to look at it is if the Patriots beat the worst team in the NFL led by a rookie QB with no head coach at home in the cold rain they make the playoffs. That doesn’t just seem inevitable, that seems like a recipe for the Patriots blowing the doors off the Jaguars by halftime.
It's pretty annoying taking the under thinking the Patriots could win 37-3 and the same scenario occurs on a slightly larger scale and here we are. The much dissected Mac Jones went 22-30 for 3 TDs on 277 passing yards and the much hyped Patriots defense tallied three more INTS on their way to shutting down one of the worst offenses in the NFL, or teams for that matter. The Patriots secured a playoff spot, which means the rebuilding process in New England took all of one season, but those dynasty years were all Tom Brady, right?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11-4 (-13) @ New York Jets 4-11 (45.5): Buccaneers 27-17 Buccaneers 28-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: 45% rain; low 50s)
Keys: The Buccaneers are trying to win the NFC and the Jets are still trying to figure out how to get their best players on the field together at the same time, so suffice it to say, Tampa Bay losing to vastly inferior teams is so 2021. I wouldn’t bank too much on the Buccaneers covering 13 points without Leonard Fournette and Mike Evans and Antonio Brown being questionable.
I knew the Jets had a chance at covering, but no one thought they had a chance at winning. Yet, "Tompa" Bay was down 24-20 midway through the 4th quarter, a quarter which included The Antonio Brown Show. The satisfaction the entire world outside of Florida gets from this latest meltdown can be felt coast to coast as the Bucs repeat plan has blown up their face. Mark it down here: The Buccaneers have zero shot at repeating in 2022 and might lose in the WC round of the playoffs.
Los Angeles Rams 11-4 (-6) @ Baltimore Ravens 8-7 (46.5): Ravens 21-20 Rams 20-19
Sunday, 1:00 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: 70% rain; low 60s)
Keys: The Ravens find themselves in “win-or-go-home” mode, which fits right into John Harbaugh’s “We-Are-Not-Allowed-To-Tie” mentality, which I’m sure won’t come back to haunt him the loss column the next two weeks. The Ravens need a lot of help, like winning out while the Cincinnati Bengals lose out, because that’s their only chance of getting into the playoffs after starting the Lamar Jackson era 31-8 with three playoff appearances and two divisional titles. Yet, despite all this, do you see the Rams, led by Matthew “Indoor” Stafford, traveling all the way to Baltimore to beat them in a 10 AM game in the pouring rain? Well, maybe, but I don’t see them covering more than six points, especially when three of the Ravens four straight loses have come by an average of 1.3 ppg. If you’re going to take them to cover you might as well take the value on the money line.
It doesn't get much closer to being right while being wrong as it does here.
Philadelphia Eagles 8-7 (-4.5) @ Washington Football Team 6-9 (44.5): Eagles 26-20 Eagles 20-16
Sunday, 1:00 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather: 50% rain; high 60s)
Keys: Nothing like January football when the temperatures reach a balmy 67 degrees in the mid-Atlantic. Hey, at least you can go up to Canada if you want to see snow. Oh wait, it’s raining up there, too. Well, while the Earth still exists as we know it we have this mediocre game to look forward to, where the WFT has no stake in anything anymore and the Eagles have a slim chance at making the playoffs and an even slimmer chance of making any noise if they get there. These teams played just two weeks ago and we should expect similar results.
The Eagles squeaked out a win against the WFT, ending Washington's impossible quest to make the playoffs in 2022 while making their own playoff fantasies a reality. The Eagles will likely play the Los Angeles Rams or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road meaning they're either likely done in the Wild Card Round (Rams) or possible playing in the Divisional Round (Bucs) where they'll ultimately lose to the Green Bay Packers. The middling Eagles are exactly where most thought they'd be, but without a division title because the Dallas Cowboys actually followed through on their talent this season.
Denver Broncos 7-8 (+7.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers 8-7 (45.5): Chargers 26-20 Chargers 34-13
Sunday, 4:05 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: 13 of 16 games in Week 17 have playoff implications including the game in question, although the only chances slimmer than the Chargers chances are the Broncos chances. That’s the funny thing though, 13 games may have playoff implications, but 10 of the 21 teams involved in those games are on the verge of being eliminated this week. The Broncos are suddenly the top scoring defense in the NFL (t-NE) and rank 4th in opposing QBR, 5th in passing defense and 6th in total defense, which could be trouble for the Chargers since they primarily pass the ball (5th pass attempts; 24th rush attempts). The Broncos have a +2.6 ppg point differential (LAC: -0.2 ppg) and are +3 in TO differential (LAC: 0), which begs the question: Why did the Chargers open at -6??? Omicron. That’s why.
Not really sure why I had the Broncos covering without half of their team, but I suppose it's the Chargers inconsistency that caused me to think a little too deeply. The Chargers live to fight another day, but that day comes next Sunday against the Las Vegas Raiders for all the playoff marbles. That's not a good look for the Chargers, who haven't strung a series of good games together all season. The way things have gone in Las Vegas and the way Derek Carr wills his team to victories don't be surprised if Los Angeles loses next week and watches the Raiders, who used to live in their city, steal the spotlight and make the playoffs.
Houston Texans 4-11 (+12.5) @ San Francisco 49ers 8-7 (44.5): 49ers 27-17 49ers 23-7
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Sunny; mid-50s)
Keys: Let’s see if the Texans can continue their late season surge (two straight wins) and play spoiler for the 49ers. That’s doubtful, because the Texans are back to playing a good defense on the road, and among the dichotomy between talent and the fact the 49ers are home fighting for a playoff spot, the Texans are dealing with covid issues, which the team from California isn’t. Wow, isn’t that strange.
I got fooled by Davis Mills. I thought the way the Texans had been playing they could cover the 12.5 points against San Francisco, but they were smothered by the 49ers defense gaining only 222 total yards on 62 plays, one more than SF. Now it's on to the season finale where SF will try to finish 10-7 and make a run at the playoffs with rookie Trey Lance.
Arizona Cardinal 10-5 (+6) @ Dallas Cowboys 11-4 (52): Cowboys 28-21 Cardinals 25-22
Sunday, 4:25 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Cardinals have only beaten two potential playoff teams since the first month of the season, the Cleveland Browns and San Francisco 49ers twice, and that’s assuming those teams even make the playoffs. The Cardinals also haven’t been the same team without Deandre Hopkins and now the once dominant Arizona defense has given up 26 ppg since their Week 12 bye. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have been red hot since their OT loss to the Las Vegas Raiders on Thanksgiving, winning four straight games by an average score of 33-14. Normally getting 6 points with Kyler Murray and the Cardinals against the Cowboys without much to lose late in the season would seem like a no-brainer, but these Cowboys are different, the Cardinals could be more dependent on Hopkins then we realized and Micah Parson can run down Murray in a heartbeat.
So much for recency bias. All it took was a little luck and a Cowboys fumble and the Cardinals stopped their epic late season slide while the Cowboys confidence just took a hit as they wrap up the season next week and enter the playoffs expected to make some noise and even make the Super Bowl.
Carolina Panthers 5-10 (+6.5) @ New Orleans Saints 7-8 (37.5): Saints 23-20 Saints 18-10
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Saints have the slimmest of chances of all the teams that remain alive in the NFC, otherwise this one would fall in the “preview due to integrity” category.
Nah.
Detroit Lions 2-12-1 (+7.5) @ Seattle Seahawks 5-10 (41.5): Seahawks 21-13 Seahawks 51-29
Sunday, 4:25 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: 90% rain; mid-30s)
Keys: One one cares, not even the fans of these teams, but we have to preview every game. Wave goodbye to Russell Wilson, 12th Man.
Russell Wilson (20-29 for 4 TDs on 239 PYDs) put on a show in his last game for the Seattle Seahawks, but it was Rashard Penny (25 CAR; 170 RYDs; 2 TDs) that had the bigger impact.
Minnesota Vikings 7-8 (+13) @ Green Bay Packers 12-3 (42.5): Packers 31-17 Packers 37-10
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Clear; low 10s)
Keys: The good lord hath forsaken Kirk Cousins with covid, but it’s more like the Vikings have forsaken their fans because right when the Vikings had a chance to make the playoffs by winning out they lost their star RB and now their QB two weeks in a row to covid. If only they had only contracted covid when Aaron Rodgers did they’d be in a different position. What a funny group of people the unvaccinated are. Without Cousins the Packers will stuff the box and make things difficult for Dalvin Cook and my FFB championship chances, while easily slaying one of their few divisional demon in the Vikings as they continue their ascend towards a first round bye.
The only thing surprising about this game was how badly Dalvin Cook played, even against a stacked box. Chalk it up to long covid I guess. From the looks of Aaron Rodgers kempt level he's been suffering from long covid the entire season.
Cleveland Browns 7-8 (-3.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 7-7-1 (41): Steelers 22-20 Steelers 26-14
Monday, 8:15 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Clear; high 20s)
Keys: Barring any miracles it’s on to 2022 for these two teams, but only one will have many questions to answer in the off season, for example, What the hell happened??? So long, Ben Roethlisberger, no one outside of Pittsburgh will miss you and I’m not talking about the game.
No one has talked about Ben Roethlisberger for years so why would we start now?
Stay tuned for PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Week 18: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) FINALE EDITION coming Saturday!
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