This is a website dedicated to pro football, football betting & Phish. All website content property of Faulkner Media unless otherwise stated.

Thursday, November 21, 2019

PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Week 12: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) THURSDAY NIGHT EDITION

2019 NFL SEASON 
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Week 12: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
THURSDAY NIGHT EDITION

2019 NFL SEASON WEEK 11: 
  11-3 .786 (WINS); 9-4-1 .692 (ATS); 9-5 .642 (O/U)
2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:
107-53-1 .670 (WINS); 84-73-4 .535 (ATS); 90-68-3 .570 (O/U)
WEEK 11 TOP 5 GAMES:
3-2 (.667)
TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:
34-19-2 (.642)
 
Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All images from Google with permission to reuse without license* Statistical sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider

NEW TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON
< Drake voice >
"TOP 5 TOP 5 TOP 5"
 
Pro Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week for either the spread OR O/U denoted by an asterisk (*). Roll with our Top 5 and watch the money pile up all season!




 Deshaun Watson has been light out during prime time games in his entire career and Thursday Night Football qualifies, believe it or not. (Image credit: Twitter)



Indianapolis Colts 6-4 (+4) @ Houston Texans 6-4 (45.5): Texans 27-24

Sunday, 1:00 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)

Keys: The winner of this game will lead the AFC South, but the Colts already won the first head-to-head match up, so if the Texans lose Thursday night they’ll be one game back with only five games to go without any tiebreaker leverage. It should also be noted the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-6) face the Tennessee Titans (5-5) Sunday, meaning at worst the losing team will still only be three games back; the winner will be tied with the loser of this game. Houston and Indianapolis don’t just have the same record, they match up well statistically and personal-wise. According to Pro Football Reference the two teams rank 11th and 13th, respectively, in SRS, meaning if they played on a neutral field it would be a pick game. Well, the game is in Houston, where the Texans are 3-1, and they literally can’t afford to lose. The Colts will be without Marlon Mack, but Jonathan Williams rushed for 116 yards in his absence Week 11. The Texans also excel at run defense, ranking in the top-10 in attempts (10th), yards allowed (5th), TDs (9th) and ypa (3rd). The Colts come in with the better defense to face the Texans superior offense, but neither teams is dominant in one phase over the other team’s. Speaking of defenses, both are banged up at key spots, so I would strongly consider the over on the short week as the Texans get the close divisional win at home.



Week 12 Byes: Arizona Cardinals; Kansas City Chiefs; Los Angeles Chargers; Minnesota Vikings







Stay tuned for the remaining Week 12: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) coming Saturday!















ProFootballMedia.com
@profootballmed


Tuesday, November 19, 2019

PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Tuesday's Gone: Week 11 #NFL Game Reviews

2019 NFL SEASON 
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Tuesday's Gone:  Week 11 #NFL Game Reviews

2019 NFL SEASON WEEK 10: 
  11-3 .786 (WINS); 9-4-1 .692 (ATS); 9-5 .642 (O/U)
2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:
107-53-1 .670 (WINS); 84-73-4 .535 (ATS); 90-68-3 .570 (O/U)
WEEK 10 TOP 5 GAMES:
3-2 (.667)
TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:
34-19-2 (.642)
 
Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All images from Google with permission to reuse without license* Statistical sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider

NEW TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON
< Drake voice >
"TOP 5 TOP 5 TOP 5"
 
Pro Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week for either the spread OR O/U denoted by an asterisk (*). Roll with our Top 5 and watch the money pile up all season!


Some thought it was a joke, but the truth is Baker Mayfield is closer to selling shower rings than he isn't. (Image credit: AP)




Pittsburgh Steelers 5-4 (+2.5) @ Cleveland Browns 3-6 (41.5): Steelers 23-20 Browns 21-7

Thursday, 8:20 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Partly cloudy; low 30s)

Keys: Ahh, that’s more like it. After a few weeks the Steelers had a losing record, no Ben Roethlisberger and a defense with a few questions, while the Browns were still riding high on the allusion their egos alone would get them to Super Bowl LIV. Now we’re past the mid-season point and the Steelers are 5-4 and own one of the best defenses in the NFL after the once-questionable Minkah Fitagerald trade, while the Browns are doing Browns things. At least the weekly Baker Mayfield meltdowns have been worth it. As for the actual match ups, the Browns don’t rely heavily enough upon the running game, because they only rank 21st in carries despite ranking 2nd in ypa. What do you know, the Steelers rank 7th in defensive rush ypa. If the Browns can get the ground game going, which won't be easy, it could open up doors for the Browns, because Pittsburgh's suffocating pass defense could be without Joe Haden. That’s assuming Mayfield can even get the ball off, because it’s been a problem all year and the Steelers rank 3rd in the NFL with 33 sacks. The Browns rank 10th in sacks themselves, but they’ll be without Olivier Vernon, who is third on the team in sacks (3.0), meaning the Steelers can focus on blocking Myles Garrett, who not only leads the Browns in sacks (10.0), but is tied for 3rd in the NFL. As long as Pittsburgh can keep Nick Chubb from busting off multiple big runs the pass rush should get to Mayfield enough that Cleveland will have trouble generating points. The Steelers have allowed an average of 14.25 ppg over their four-game winning streak, and the Browns have managed just 18.25 ppg in their four home games (1-3). The Browns are coming off a mock win against the Buffalo Bills and Cleveland is barely a road game for the Steelers (137 miles), so look for Pittsburgh to win outright. Once again the O/U remains one of the toughest calls of the week.

Myles Garrett tomahawk-chopped Mason Rudolph's bare head with a helmet and now he has the next 10 months to write poetry. 




Dallas Cowboys 5-4 (-7) @ Detroit Lions 3-5-1 (48): Cowboys 27-17 Cowboys 35-27

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)

Keys: Matthew Stafford is out with a broken back so the only question is, how much do the Cowboys win by? Ok, that’s a dangerous thing to suggest considering the “any given Sunday” principle and the Cowboys are banged up to say the least. The truth is the Cowboys are one of the only teams in the NFL ranked in the top-10 in both scoring offense and defense and yards gained and allowed, and are still loaded with talent on both sides of the ball regardless of attrition. The Lions, on the other hand, are only good at one thing: Gaining chunks of yards...with Stafford at QB.

Say what you want about Dak Prescott's great performance (444 passing yards; 3 TDs) or Ezekiel Elliot's poor performance (45 rushing yards; 2.8 ypc; 1 TD), this game was about the Cowboys giving up 27 points to a Stafford-less Lions led by Jeff Briskel. 



Jacksonville Jaguars 4-5 (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts 5-4 (43.5): Colts 24-20 Colts 33-13
Sunday, 1:00PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather: Indoors)

Keys: Nick Foles returns just in time to play against Frank Reich, a guy who knows Foles about as well as anyone in the NFL. Whose genius idea was this? Have we given up on Minshew Mania already? The Jaguars come into Indianapolis well-rested, while the Colts had eight players (4 O & D) that didn’t practice all week. That likely explains the 3-point spread because the Colts are getting 2-3 points just for being at home. Or maybe it’s the fact that these teams are pretty similar, at least in terms of record and point differential (Colts: 0.2 ppg; Jaguars: -1.4 ppg). One key to the game is the Colts offensive line keeping Brissett upright against Calais Campbell, who ranks 4th in the league in sacks for DTs (5.5). The Colts will have more luck, no pun intended, blocking for Brissett than the Jaguars will blocking for Foles, especially from the right side of the line. Therein lies the other key. The Colts have to keep pace in the AFC South, so look for them to take advantage of a rusty Foles and get the win and the cover. 

The Colts got back on track Sunday, but lost Marlon Mack to a broken hand in the process. Jonathan Williams rushed for 116 yards on 13 attempts in his absence, a testament to the quality of the Colts offensive line. This was one of five games PFM swept across the board after two of the worst weeks in a row on PFM record. 



Buffalo Bills 6-3 (+3) @ Miami Dolphins 2-7 (40.5): Bills 24-17 Bills 37-20

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)

Keys: The Dolphins have won two games in a row and suddenly bettors are racing to take the points. The thing is, until the Dolphins scored 24 points in their first win against the New York Jets Week 9 their 21-point explosion on the Bills during Week 7 was their largest output of the 2019 season. That’s saying a lot against the 3rd ranked defense in the NFL (scoring defense; yards allowed; pass yards; pass ypa), a rank that hasn’t budged anymore than their defense has against opposing teams. Ranks don’t tell the whole story, of course, and they certainly don’t account for trends over the course of half a season, but a two-game winning streak can’t hide the fact the Dolphins are statistically one of the worst teams in the NFL, if not the worst.

Josh Allen threw 3 TD passes and the Bills defense allowed only 13 points and 303 total yards, including garbage time, to keep pace with the New England Patriots in the AFC East. I can't believe I just wrote that reviewing games after Week 11. This was one of five games PFM swept across the board after two of the worst weeks in a row on PFM record. 

 

Von Miller remains one of the few bright spots on the Denver Broncos.


Denver Broncos 3-6 (+10.5) @ Minnesota Vikings 7-3 (40.5): Vikings 24-17 Vikings 27-23

Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors) 

Keys: This is a classic top offense (MIN: 9th scoring; 8th yards) v. top defense (6th scoring; 4th yards allowed) game, but the Vikings can actually defend, too, and the Broncos have one of the worst offenses in the NFL. That doesn’t even take into account the discrepancy in TOs (MIN: 7th; DEN: 24th) or the Broncos terrible 1-3 road record. The Vikings keep the record clean at home, but winning by more than 10 points might be tough against this stout Denver defense, especially with Adam Thielen out again. 

Wow. I constantly bitch about the bad beats I take, but I never really talk about the great beats. This was one of those great beats, because the Vikings were down 20-0 at the half. In fact, the Broncos still led 23-7 heading into the 4Q, but scored 20 unanswered 4Q points to take the lead and the win. Dalvin Cook was held to just 26 yards on 11 carries, but Kirk Cousins threw 3 TD passes, including one to Stephon Diggs (5 receptions; 121 receiving yards). This was one of five games PFM swept across the board after two of the worst weeks in a row on PFM record. 
 




New Orleans Saints 7-2 (-5.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-6 (50): Saints 27-24 Saints 34-17

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Cloudy; low 70s)

Keys: Drew Brees came back after a long absence from thumb surgery and won handily against the Arizona Coverbusters two weeks ago, so naturally they followed that up with the biggest upset of the year last week, losing 26-9 to the Atlanta Falcons after being favored by as much as 14.5 points. This a tough one. I don’t trust Jameis Winston as far as he can see without glasses, but the Saints can’t afford to travel anywhere...come to think of it they’d be playing in mostly domes come the playoffs (DAL; MIN). OK, so they don’t want to end up in Seattle. The point is the Bucs are 31st in the league in TOs, despite being one of the best passing attacks in the NFL, because Winston leads the league in INTs. Winston’s lucky because Marshon Lattimore (1 INT) might not play, but Winston will likely still throw it to the Saints, who need to get back on track and keep pace in the NFC.

This game went about exactly how I saw it playing out, including the INTs, but I didn't envision four more INTs, two of which weren't even Jameis Winston's fault. Either way, it's hard to overcome four TOs at home. Winston is now on pace to break the record for the most TOs in their first five years in the league, needing only 14 more TOs over the next six games to accomplish that feat. Look on the bright side, Bucs fans: Peyton Manning is 2nd on that list.




New York Jets 2-7 (+1.5) @ Washington Football Team 1-8 (38.5): Jets 20-17 Jets 34-17

Sunday, 1:00 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather: Mostly cloudy; high 40s)

Keys: Give me a break this game sucks. The Pigskins trot out the unprepared rookie Dwayne Haskins again with a depleted backfield to a Jets defense that could’ve stopped the run anyway, so it was all on the rookie to begin with. Yikes.

I knew all about these Pigskins, but clearly didn't think about a 34-point explosion by these Jets, and thus, we lost the under. Sam Darnold threw 4 TDs, including one to someone named Ryan Griffin, and did absolutely nothing to sway anyone's opinion about their progress. The Pigskins, however, remain abysmal. 



Atlanta Falcons 2-7 (+4.5) @ Carolina Panthers 5-4 (49.5): Panthers 24-20 Falcons 29-3

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Mostly Sunny; high 50s)

Keys: The Falcons are flying high after their stunning upset win against the New Orleans Saints, but the Panthers are trying to stay in the playoff hunt, where they remain tied with two teams (LAR; PHI) for the 7th seed, but sit on the outside looking in due to tiebreakers. That chalks up to a hunger the Falcons don’t have and we’re all aware of the potential letdown following an emotional win. The Falcons are actually great against the run (7th ypa) and the Panthers excel against the pass (1st sacks; 4th ypa), so believe it not, this game will likely come down to TOs, where the Panthers are 4th in takeaways and the Falcons are 26th in TOs. For the record the Falcons are also 32nd in takeaways, so it’s not like Atlanta is returning the favor. 

You might have seen a Falcons cover. You may have even seen a Falcons win. No one one in the world saw a 26-point drubbing. Kyle Allen has gone from the potential answer in Carolina as the Panthers contemplated trading or waiving Cam Newton to providing all the evidence we need to understand why Allen has never been a starter in college or the NFL. Allen threw 4 INTs and was sacked five times by a Falcons defense that has largely been ridiculed all season. Now that the fans and the city have probably lost Newton, at least mentally, the future looks dim for these Panthers. 
 


No JJ Watt, no problem...so far.


*Houston Texans 6-3 (+4) @ Baltimore Ravens 7-2 *(45): Texans 27-24 Ravens 41-7

Sunday, 1:00 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Mostly cloudy; low 40s) 

Keys: Only the NEvsPHI game could be argued as more compelling and that’s simply not the case because these two teams have faced tougher schedules and/or haven’t failed to live up to expectations through mid-season. In other words, this is probably the game of the week. Without a doubt the game features the two most dynamic QBs in the league. These two teams mirror each other in that they both possess elite offenses, hinged upon great running games, with mediocre defenses; both teams are also nearly top-10 in both TOs and takeaways. The difference in TOs for 9th-ranked Baltimore and 12th-ranked Houston is only one. Food for thought: Bill O’Brien is 4-1 following a bye in his five years a Texans head coach, and every game has been on the road. * = HOU COVER & OVER

Oh boy. One of my betting Games of the Week, I took both the Texans and the over. At least we barely got the over thanks to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offensive explosion. Jackson threw 4 TD passes and ran for another 86 yards (9.6 ypa) and showed out Deshaun Watson (9 QBR), who looked like David Carr (6 sacks) rather than the dynamic QB we've been used to seeing. 



*Arizona Cardinals 3-6-1 (+10) @ San Francisco 49ers 8-1 (45): 49ers 27-20 49ers 36-26
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Sunny; mid-70s)

Keys: I just can’t stay away from these Cardinals. How can you? They’re constantly double-digit underdogs and led by a dynamic ROY candidate. They're also 7-3 ATS. The key is Kyler Murray doesn’t turn the ball over (1st TOs). That works against the 49ers all-time defense, and the 49ers offense just happens to be struggling with attrition at key positions (i.e. Greg Kittle; Matt Breida). This doesn’t mean you run out to the window to take the Cardinals money line, but the cover is one of my locks of the week. * = ARZ COVER

I'm just going to say one thing about this bullshit game: How the hell was the ball not blown dead during that lateral-turned-scrum? HOW?! Instead, the ball pops out of the scrum like a cannonball and was returned for a TD by the 49ers for the worst push I've ever witnessed. I refuse to apologize for this call, one of my best of the year until that nonsense. Someone swallowed their whistle for the push because Las Vegas was about to lose a ton of money. CROOKS!!! This was one of five games PFM swept across the board...oops, never mind.




Cincinnati Bengals 0-9 (+10.5) @ Oakland Raiders 5-4 (48.5): Raiders 27-17 Raiders 17-10

Sunday, 4:25PM, Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, CA (Weather: Sunny; mid-70s)

Keys: The Raiders have a mediocre offense that doesn’t turn the ball over and the Bengals are awful and run by a rookie coach and a rookie QB. People might be surprised to know the Bengals are 3-6 ATS, which is a product of large spreads against mediocre competition. The Bengals allow 14.25 ppg on the road and the Raiders score 23 ppg at home; they’ve also scored 24 points in four of nine games. Those averages would be within the 10.5-point spread even if you used the one Ryan Finley outlier game last week in which they scored 13 points. The point here is that this spread sits right around the result of several quick calculations one might use to decipher a score, meaning you might want to stay away, unless you want to take a flier on the Bengals covering. After all, the Raiders are 1-3 ATS in games where they’re favored by six or more points. 

I told you not to sleep on the Bengals. 




New England Patriots 8-1 (-3.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles 5-4 (44.5): Patriots 24-21 Patriots 17-10

Sunday, 4:25 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: 20% rain; high 40s)

Keys: The Patriots suffered their worst defeat of the season, 37-20 at Baltimore Week 9 before their bye week. Yet, the Patriots regained their crown in Pro Football Reference’s Simple Rating System, surpassing the San Francisco 49ers, the team that was behind New England the first nine weeks of the season. In other words, you don’t want to play them on a neutral field and certainly not in New England. Well, this game is in Philadelphia. The Eagles have no deep threat anymore and have to rely on the recently discovered ground game (6th attempts; 11th yards; 9th TDs) and their elite TEs, which could work against this Patriots defense, which, although statistically elite, has faced weak competition besides Buffalo and Baltimore and is more elite against the pass than the run (26th ypa). Like most games, this one comes down to TOs, and the Patriots take the ball away more than anyone in the league, while ranking 9th in TOs. In other words, the Eagles have to hold on to the ball to have a good chance. Both teams are coming off the bye and the Patriots are coming off a loss, two Bill Belichick staples for a subsequent win. This is one of the tougher games to call in Week 11, but it’s hard to bet against Belichick coming off the bye and a loss. 

555 total yards. 40 first downs. 4 yards per play. The Eagles led this defensive battle 10-9 with almost seven minutes remaining in the game and also dropped the game-winning TD in the end zone. Philadelphia also had the game's only TO, which one could point to as the difference in the game. The Patriots forced two Carson Wentz fumbles, recovering one, and sacked him five times on just six QB hits. These two "star" QBs looked like garbage, and it became clear the Patriots are only winning anything in January and beyond as a function of their defense and Bill Belichick.

 

This hasn't been Tom Brady's best work, but he has the most help on defense he's had since his early years.



Chicago Bears 4-5 (+6.5) @ Los Angeles Rams 5-4 (40.5): Rams 27-20 Rams 17-7

Sunday, 8:20 PM, Los Angeles Memorial Stadium, Los Angeles, CA (Weather: Sunny; mid-80s)

Keys: This is the Hope & Dreams Bowl. Think about this: Two months ago pundits had these two teams penciled in for the NFC Championship with several people declaring the Bears Super Bowl LIV favorites and even Mitch Trubisky a pre-season MVP candidate. Well, let’s just say it's gotten so bad some sports books have even refunded those Trubisky MVP bets. Too bad the Bears can’t refund Trubisky and draft Deshaun Watson or Patrick Mahomes, but hindsight is 20/20. The bottom line is the Bears can’t score consistently, if at all at times, and they’ve suffered too many injuries on the defensive side of the ball to be considered elite going forward. Both teams get after the QB so it should be fun watching Trubisky run out of the pocket and throw it seven rows into the stands and then watch Jared Goff crumble like a cheap tent the second any pressure gets to him and float a duck that has equal chances of being caught or intercepted. I don’t care what anyone says, both of these teams have QB remorse, but only the Rams were stupid enough to pay theirs $100M. 

The Los Angeles' Rams problems are only surpassed by the problems facing the Bears, who look like they could be moving on from Mitch(ell) Trubisky. 




*Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers 4-6 *(52): Chiefs 30-24 Chiefs 24-17
Monday, 8:15 PM, Estadio Azteca, Mexico City, Mexico (Weather: Clear; low 70s)

Keys: The Chargers win a couple games and they’re “back”. Give me a break. Have you seen Philip Rivers this season? Good god. The Raiders brought the Chargers back down to Earth Week 10, although they played Oakland tough, while the Chiefs suffered the worst beat in recent memory. Suffice it to say, hopefully the defense learned their lesson after taking the day off once their savior Patrick Mahomes returned, and a recently improved defense in his absence became the old porous defense that relied on Mahomes to rescue them, hence surrendering 35 points to the offensively-challenged Titans, something only the even lowlier Cleveland Browns have managed. The altitude shouldn’t bother the AFC West foes, who visit Denver once a year minimum, so if anything, Mahomes becomes even more of a threat in the thin air. The dynamic Chiefs take on one of the best defenses in the league on paper, although the competition has been less than stellar and Mahomes has proved he can avoid pressure, even with a bum ankle. * = KC COVER & OVER

The Chiefs' struggles continued Monday night against the Chargers defense that didn't even pressure Patrick Mahomes that much. Mahomes had one of his worst games of the year and still led the Chiefs in rushing. It was no Lamar Jackson performance, however, and if Philip Rivers hadn't thrown 4 INTs the Chargers likely win big. Those INTs were also the difference in the sweep for PFM, as we didn't hit the over due to Rivers' ineptitude. After two of the worst weeks in PFM's five-year history, the HOUvsBAL game was the only game you lost money on if you took every aspect (money line/ATS/OU) of every single game in Week 11. You're welcome. Just kidding, thank you for the support.


Week 11 Byes: Green Bay Packers; New York Giants; Seattle Seahawks; Tennessee Titans




Stay tuned for Week 12: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) coming Thursday & Saturday!















ProFootballMedia.com
@profootballmed