This is a website dedicated to pro football, football betting & Phish. All website content property of Faulkner Media unless otherwise stated.

Saturday, February 15, 2020

PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Tuesday's Gone Week 21: #NFL Game Reviews SUPER BOWL LIV EDITION

2019 NFL SEASON 
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Tuesday's Gone Week 21:  #NFL Game Reviews
SUPER BOWL LIV EDITION


2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:
165-89-1 .650 (WINS); 137-110-8 .555 (ATS); 134-115-6 .538 (O/U)

TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:
48-23-3 (.676)

2020 NFL PLAYOFFS
 5-6 .455 (WINS); 5-6 .455 (ATS); 3-8 .273 (O/U)
 
Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): EWL (Expected W-L record); SoS (Strength of Schedule); SRS (Simple Rating System from PFR); Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 1st downs (1st); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); P/R NY/A (Pass/Rush Net yards/attempt); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All images from Google with permission to reuse without license or they are credited with source* Statistical sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider


NEW TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON
< Drake voice >
"TOP 5 TOP 5 TOP 5"
 
Pro Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week for either the spread OR O/U denoted by an asterisk (*). Roll with our Top 5 and watch the money pile up all season!


Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs were a Dee Ford offsides call away from Super Bowl LIII, so they've been chomping at the bit to get to Super Bowl LIV and prove they're the NFL's next dynasty. (Image credit: Chiefs.com)



San Francisco 49ers (1) 13-3 (+1.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (2) 12-4 (53.5):  Chiefs 33-30 Chiefs 31-20

Keys: This is one of the best and closest Super Bowl match-ups in years: The classic explosive dynamic offense (KC) v. the quick and devastating defense (SF). It's far more complex than that. In the 28 regular season metrics I analyzed, from Expected W-L record, to Simple Rating System, to YPP, to (P/R)NY/A, to Red Zone efficiency, to time of possession (TOP), these teams ranked in the top-10 and within four rankings of each other in 20 of 28 statistical categories. That's incredible. Expected W-L record: 11.4-4.6 (KC) to 11.8-4.2 (SF). Nearly identical SoS by statistical standards, and completely average (SF: 0.41; KC: 0.20). In four major metrics (PA; PNY/A; DefPEN & Offensive Red Zone efficiency) the Chiefs and 49ers were ranked consecutively at the end of the regular season. Even in their two playoffs games in the divisional and championship rounds the two team's point differential was within three points (SF: +34; KC: +31). The offenses are eerily similar, statistically, although they couldn't look more different on the field for most of the time, considering how fast and dynamic the Chiefs offense is. The same could be said about the two defenses, statistically, but it's clear to everyone with two eyes, a brain, and some feel for the game of football that the 49ers are the superior defense. The crazy thing is, even in areas where the two teams seem "far apart", e.g. sacks or INTs, the difference in defensive sacks ranking (SF: 5th; KC: 11th) is only three sacks; the difference in defensive INTs ranking (KC: 5th; SF: 17th) is only four INTs. There's a reason this game has been bet down from three points to a Pick 'Em in some markets. I have a theory. The 49ers secondary is good, but their elite defensive players are up front and are some of the fastest defenders in the NFL. So the 49ers LBs and front four will essentially neutralize the Chiefs running game, and likely even Travis Kelce. That's not to say the Chiefs elite offensive tackles won't be able to fend off the 49ers elite pass rush, but with play action essentially taken away from the 49ers, because I predict they'll shut the Chiefs running game down, Patrick Mahomes will simply scramble to the left or right, and throw 30-yard seeds to Tyreek Hill et al, who will dust the slower 49ers secondary. The 49ers LBs will be too busy defending Kelce and spying Mahomes to drop back in coverage, and even if they do, they're not fast enough to stay with the Chiefs WRs. The 49ers offense should have no problem scoring on the Kansas City defense, probably to the tune of 27-31 points; that probably won't be enough to overcome the 30-35 points the Chiefs will likely score. One thing to look out for is Chris Jones v. the 49ers back-up center, who is a run-blocking specialist. If the 49ers go run-heavy, perhaps that match-up gets neutralized to some degree, but if Jones is successful in rushing the QB, Jimmy G could be on the run, meaning the 49ers could be closer to the 24-28 point range, unless that opens George Kittle for a monster game. Don't get me wrong, the 49ers are the cream of the NFL, but the Chiefs have showed us the past few week just how deadly they can be. The heart wants the San Fransisco 49ers due to my California ties and the fact Jimmy Garoppolo should have been the New England Patriots QB for the next 10-12 years, but my money is on Patrick Mahomes and the rest of his Muppets. If Andy Reid wins, will they throw Kool-Aid on him? Oh yeah!!!

What an end to the 2019-2020 NFL gambling season. Many prop bets were made, and thanks to the worst performance of Patrick Mahomes' career through 3Q, those props were not hit. Tyreek Hill yards? Check. Damien Williams yards? Check. Damien Williams TD? Check. Those props parlayed? Check. Well, almost. There was the matter of Mahomes living up to his part of the prop bargain: A measly 305-310 passing yards, by Mahomes standards, depending on the prop parlay. Now, before you point to the 49ers defense, they surrendered 31 points; secondly, we discussed the 49ers secondary and speed in the secondary being the weakest part of that defense. Finally, had Mahomes not thrown 50% of his passes into the grass during the first 3Q he might've torched that 305-310 yard total. He finished with 286 passing yards (2 TDs; 2 INTs), and to add insult to (pride) injury, Mahomes, in an effort to stifle any miraculous 49ers comeback, as impossible as that seemed at the moment, attempted a 30-yard pass to the sideline that was almost caught as time expired. I watched in horror as the pass that would've exceeded the 315-yard mark flew just out of reach, taking with it all of my prop money. I suppose I can't complain to those who had the Mahomes rushing yards (44) prop. Mahomes checked that box, only to see it dissolve with three consecutive kneel-downs to end the game that took 15 or more of those rushing yards away. Now that's a bad beat. The worst beat, however, was Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco 49ers, who held a 10-point lead in the 4Q just to see the Chiefs win by 11 points. 21 unanswered 4Q points by Kansas City in the 4Q. That would seem impossible if we hadn't seen bigger already. Shanahan is now in the history books as both an OC and now a head coach of two teams that blew two of the largest leads in Super Bowl history, the other being the infamous 28-3 lead with the Atlanta Falcons. That's not the best look, especially when you could literally point to Shanahan abandoning key offensive strategies in key moments that helped his team get to that position in the first place. With Matt Ryan it was a little more understandable, but leaning on Jimmy Garoppolo (219 passing yards; 2 INTs) was not with the run game the 49ers possessed. The MVP might've gone to Damien Williams (104 rushing yards; 1 TD), but that wouldn't fit the NFL's narrative. The narrative for next year is likely these very teams right back here doing the same thing in a different host city. Congrats, Andy Reid, we'll see you there next year.

Thanks for the support in this 100th NFL season, my 5th doing the website. I'll be back next year with a new season, updated content, and hopefully the podcast that was supposed to launch this season. Contact profootballmedia@gmail.com for any business/writing/podcast inquiries and we'll see you, and Tom Brady in a Patriots uniform, in September. Enjoy the XFL! Just kidding, see you in September!


Stay tuned for Week 1: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) OPENING WEEK EDITION coming September 2020!


 











ProFootballMedia.com
@profootba

Friday, January 31, 2020

PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Week 21: #NFL Game Prediction (w/ the spread & analysis) SUPER BOWL LIV EDITION

2019 NFL SEASON 
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Week 21:  #NFL Game Prediction (w/ the spread & analysis)
SUPER BOWL LIV EDITION


2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:
165-89-1 .650 (WINS); 137-110-8 .555 (ATS); 134-115-6 .538 (O/U)

TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:
48-23-3 (.676)

2020 NFL PLAYOFFS
 4-6 .400 (WINS); 4-6 .400 (ATS); 3-7 .300 (O/U)
 
Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): EWL (Expected W-L record); SoS (Strength of Schedule); SRS (Simple Rating System from PFR); Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 1st downs (1st); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); P/R NY/A (Pass/Rush Net yards/attempt); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All images from Google with permission to reuse without license or they are credited with source* Statistical sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider


NEW TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON
< Drake voice >
"TOP 5 TOP 5 TOP 5"
 
Pro Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week for either the spread OR O/U denoted by an asterisk (*). Roll with our Top 5 and watch the money pile up all season!


Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs were a Dee Ford offsides call away from Super Bowl LIII, so they've been chomping at the bit to get to Super Bowl LIV and prove they're the NFL's next dynasty. (Image credit: Chiefs.com)



San Francisco 49ers (1) 13-3 (+1.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (2) 12-4 (53.5):  Chiefs 33-30 

Keys: This is one of the best and closest Super Bowl match-ups in years: The classic explosive dynamic offense (KC) v. the quick and devastating defense (SF). It's far more complex than that. In the 28 regular season metrics I analyzed, from Expected W-L record, to Simple Rating System, to YPP, to (P/R)NY/A, to Red Zone efficiency, to time of possession (TOP), these teams ranked in the top-10 and within four rankings of each other in 20 of 28 statistical categories. That's incredible. Expected W-L record: 11.4-4.6 (KC) to 11.8-4.2 (SF). Nearly identical SoS by statistical standards, and completely average (SF: 0.41; KC: 0.20). In four major metrics (PA; PNY/A; DefPEN & Offensive Red Zone efficiency) the Chiefs and 49ers were ranked consecutively at the end of the regular season. Even in their two playoffs games in the divisional and championship rounds the two team's point differential was within three points (SF: +34; KC: +31). The offenses are eerily similar, statistically, although they couldn't look more different on the field for most of the time, considering how fast and dynamic the Chiefs offense is. The same could be said about the two defenses, statistically, but it's clear to everyone with two eyes, a brain, and some feel for the game of football that the 49ers are the superior defense. The crazy thing is, even in areas where the two teams seem "far apart", e.g. sacks or INTs, the difference in defensive sacks ranking (SF: 5th; KC: 11th) is only three sacks; the difference in defensive INTs ranking (KC: 5th; SF: 17th) is only four INTs. There's a reason this game has been bet down from three points to a Pick 'Em in some markets. I have a theory. The 49ers secondary is good, but their elite defensive players are up front and are some of the fastest defenders in the NFL. So the 49ers LBs and front four will essentially neutralize the Chiefs running game, and likely even Travis Kelce. That's not to say the Chiefs elite offensive tackles won't be able to fend off the 49ers elite pass rush, but with play action essentially taken away from the 49ers, because I predict they'll shut the Chiefs running game down, Patrick Mahomes will simply scramble to the left or right, and throw 30-yard seeds to Tyreek Hill et al, who will dust the slower 49ers secondary. The 49ers LBs will be too busy defending Kelce and spying Mahomes to drop back in coverage, and even if they do, they're not fast enough to stay with the Chiefs WRs. The 49ers offense should have no problem scoring on the Kansas City defense, probably to the tune of 27-31 points; that probably won't be enough to overcome the 30-35 points the Chiefs will likely score. One thing to look out for is Chris Jones v. the 49ers back-up center, who is a run-blocking specialist. If the 49ers go run-heavy, perhaps that match-up gets neutralized to some degree, but if Jones is successful in rushing the QB, Jimmy G could be on the run, meaning the 49ers could be closer to the 24-28 point range, unless that opens George Kittle for a monster game. Don't get me wrong, the 49ers are the cream of the NFL, but the Chiefs have showed us the past few week just how deadly they can be. The heart wants the San Fransisco 49ers due to my California ties and the fact Jimmy Garoppolo should have been the New England Patriots QB for the next 10-12 years, but my money is on Patrick Mahomes and the rest of his Muppets. If Andy Reid wins, will they throw Kool-Aid on him? Oh yeah!!!


Stay tuned for Tuesday's Gone: Week 21 #NFL Game Reviews SUPER BOWL LIV EDITION coming Wednesday!


 











Tuesday, January 28, 2020

PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Tuesday's Gone: Week 20 #NFL Game Reviews CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND EDITION

2019 NFL SEASON 
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Tuesday's Gone: Week 20  #NFL Game Reviews
CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND EDITION


2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:
165-89-1 .650 (WINS); 137-110-8 .555 (ATS); 134-115-6 .538 (O/U)

TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:
48-23-3 (.676)

2020 NFL PLAYOFFS
 4-6 .400 (WINS); 4-6 .400 (ATS); 3-7 .300 (O/U)
 
Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All images from Google with permission to reuse without license* Statistical sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider


NEW TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON
< Drake voice >
"TOP 5 TOP 5 TOP 5"
 
Pro Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week for either the spread OR O/U denoted by an asterisk (*). Roll with our Top 5 and watch the money pile up all season!


 Kermit was feeling himself after his WRs finally started catching balls, but he can't stop Derrick Henry. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)



Tennessee Titans (6) 9-7 (+7) @ Kansas City Chiefs (2) 12-4 (53): Chiefs 31-27 Chiefs 35-24

Sunday, 3:05 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Mostly Sunny; mid-20s)

Keys: There's something to be said about six playoff games in a row with a spread greater than 4.5 points. In other words, Las Vegas doesn't see any of these games as close. The aforementioned 4.5 points was afforded the Seattle Seahawks, and that's because the Seahawks and Green Bay Packers were the most overrated teams coming into the playoffs, so Green Bay got the customary 3.5-4 points just for having a real home-field advantage. Besides that the spreads have been in the 7-10 point range, which is a blowout by NFL standards. The match-up everyone is paying attention to is Derrick Henry v. a Chiefs run defense that's not only overrated, but could be missing Chris Jones, again, which would be devastating. Some reports say he injured himself in practice, right at the end; some reports say he injured himself playing basketball at the facility. If it's the latter let's chalk it up to another Andy Reid failure. What's your top defensive lineman and best run stopper doing playing anything other than "walk through" at this crucial a time during the season? The Chiefs can't afford to go down 24-0 v. these Titans because they'll literally run them out of Arrowhead Stadium. However, the Titans aren't exactly crisp against the pass, and Patrick Mahomes has proven at every level he can chuck it with the best of them. This is also a Titans team that shut down Tom Brady, which turns out probably wasn't a big feat, and Lamar Jackson, who looked anything but sharp throwing the ball v. Tennessee. Be on the lookout for TOs, too, because both teams rank 10th in takeaways, but don't strain yourself looking because these teams rank 3rd (KC) and 7th (TEN), respectively, in TOs. Some might think Henry can't possibly run for close to 200 yards for a fourth straight week, but did you think it was happening for three straight weeks to get into the playoffs and through the Wild Card and Divisional rounds? I didn't think so. Chris Jones has never been more important in his life, but the game rides just as much on the shoulders of the New England Patriots secondary, err, I mean the Titans secondary. 

Stop me if you've heard this before: The Chiefs were down big at one point in the first half and stormed back to decimate their opponent. It was a TO-free AFC Championship with nearly dead-even TOP, yet the Chiefs led 35-17 with 7:33 left in the game. The Titans train finally slowed, specifically conductor Derrick Henry, who was held to 69 yards on 19 carries, and before you ask why they didn't just feed the King, I refer you to the 35-17 halfway through the 4Q part. Patrick Mahomes is just too much to deal with combined with the Kansas City speed on offense, and when you add 27-yard TD scampers weaving through good defenses to the repertoire, Mahomes and this Chiefs offense is going to be a handful in Super Bowl LIV, even for the mighty 49ers.
 


 If someone has a 4.5:1 career TD:INT ratio, but only one Super Bowl appearance in 14 years to show for it, does it make a noise?



Green Bay Packers (2) 13-3 (+7.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (1) 13-3 (46): 49ers 28-20 49ers 37-20
Sunday, 6:40 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Cloudy; low 50s)
Keys: To put it simply, this match-up features the most overrated team left in the playoffs v. the best team left in the playoffs, and unless you're from Wisconsin you know which teams belongs where. This just isn't a good match-up for the Packers, and the last time these teams played the shorthanded 49ers made an example out of the Packers, despite both teams fighting for the NFC crown Week 12. The Packers aren't in the same class as the 49ers, and San Fransisco can get to Aaron Rodgers, although the 5th-ranked 49ers only sacked seven more QBs than the 15th-ranked Packers. The Packers defense is overrated; the 49ers ranks 2nd overall. The Packers running game is overrated; the 49ers rank 2nd overall. The Packers could be the first team in NFL history to be out-gained on the season and still be playing in a conference championship; the 49ers rank 2nd in defensive yards allowed and 4th in offensive yards gained. The 49ers also have depth in spades, while the Packers, well, don't. When Rodgers snarkily says "I guess we're just smoke and mirrors", he's telling the truth, whether his arrogance allows him to realize it or not. The Packers have no business even being here, so that can only mean they'll probably cover or even win. Just kidding, they should get demolished. I wish I could say the same thing about...never mind.  

The Packers out-gained the 49ers, had more first downs and held the ball longer, yet were down 27-0 at the half. Such is life for a drastically overrated team fresh off the fruits of their not-so-laborious 13-3 season. That's largely because Mr. 4.5:1 TD:INT threw a subpar 1:1 Sunday, while the 49ers defense sacked Aaron Rodgers three times. It's not like Jimmy Garoppolo stole the show - he was 6-8 for 77 yards - the day simply belonged to Raheem Mostert, who ran for a record 220 yards and four TDs on 29 carries (7.6 ypc), as well as the 49ers defense, who held the Packers to seven points through the 3Q, when the game was all but over at 34-7. State Farm didn't get their way for Super Bowl LIV; no Rodgers v. Mahomes nonsense for two straight weeks. Look on the bright side, at least it's evidence Super Bowl LIV isn't rigged. Well, I suppose...never mind. 




Stay tuned for Week 21: #NFL Game Prediction (w/ the spread & analysis) SUPER BOWL LIV EDITION coming Friday!


 











Friday, January 17, 2020

PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Week 20: #NFL Game Predictions (w/spreads & analysis) CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND EDITION

2019 NFL SEASON 
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Week 20:  #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND EDITION


2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:
165-89-1 .650 (WINS); 137-110-8 .555 (ATS); 134-115-6 .538 (O/U)

TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:
48-23-3 (.676)

2020 NFL PLAYOFFS
 2-6 .250 (WINS); 3-5 .375 (ATS); 1-7 .125 (O/U)
 
Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All images from Google with permission to reuse without license* Statistical sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider


NEW TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON
< Drake voice >
"TOP 5 TOP 5 TOP 5"
 
Pro Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week for either the spread OR O/U denoted by an asterisk (*). Roll with our Top 5 and watch the money pile up all season!


 Kermit was feeling himself after his WRs finally started catching balls, but he can't stop Derrick Henry. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)



Tennessee Titans (6) 9-7 (+7) @ Kansas City Chiefs (2) 12-4 (53): Chiefs 31-27

Sunday, 3:05 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Mostly Sunny; mid-20s)

Keys: There's something to be said about six playoff games in a row with a spread greater than 4.5 points. In other words, Las Vegas doesn't see any of these games as close. The aforementioned 4.5 points was afforded the Seattle Seahawks, and that's because the Seahawks and Green Bay Packers were the most overrated teams coming into the playoffs, so Green Bay got the customary 3.5-4 points just for having a real home-field advantage. Besides that the spreads have been in the 7-10 point range, which is a blowout by NFL standards. The match-up everyone is paying attention to is Derrick Henry v. a Chiefs run defense that's not only overrated, but could be missing Chris Jones, again, which would be devastating. Some reports say he injured himself in practice, right at the end; some reports say he injured himself playing basketball at the facility. If it's the latter let's chalk it up to another Andy Reid failure. What's your top defensive lineman and best run stopper doing playing anything other than "walk through" at this crucial a time during the season? The Chiefs can't afford to go down 24-0 v. these Titans because they'll literally run them out of Arrowhead Stadium. However, the Titans aren't exactly crisp against the pass, and Patrick Mahomes has proven at every level he can chuck it with the best of them. This is also a Titans team that shut down Tom Brady, which turns out probably wasn't a big feat, and Lamar Jackson, who looked anything but sharp throwing the ball v. Tennessee. Be on the lookout for TOs, too, because both teams rank 10th in takeaways, but don't strain yourself looking because these teams rank 3rd (KC) and 7th (TEN), respectively, in TOs. Some might think Henry can't possibly run for close to 200 yards for a fourth straight week, but did you think it was happening for three straight weeks to get into the playoffs and through the Wild Card and Divisional rounds? I didn't think so. Chris Jones has never been more important in his life, but the game rides just as much on the shoulders of the New England Patriots secondary, err, I mean the Titans secondary. 


 If someone has a 4.5:1 career TD:INT ratio, but only one Super Bowl appearance in 14 years to show for it, does it make a noise?



Green Bay Packers (2) 13-3 (+7.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (1) 13-3 (46): 49ers 28-20
Sunday, 6:40 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Cloudy; low 50s)
Keys: To put it simply, this match-up features the most overrated team left in the playoffs v. the best team left in the playoffs, and unless you're from Wisconsin you know which teams belongs where. This just isn't a good match-up for the Packers, and the last time these teams played the shorthanded 49ers made an example out of the Packers, despite both teams fighting for the NFC crown Week 12. The Packers aren't in the same class as the 49ers, and San Fransisco can get to Aaron Rodgers, although the 5th-ranked 49ers only sacked seven more QBs than the 15th-ranked Packers. The Packers defense is overrated; the 49ers ranks 2nd overall. The Packers running game is overrated; the 49ers rank 2nd overall. The Packers could be the first team in NFL history to be out-gained on the season and still be playing in a conference championship; the 49ers rank 2nd in defensive yards allowed and 4th in offensive yards gained. The 49ers also have depth in spades, while the Packers, well, don't. When Rodgers snarkily says "I guess we're just smoke and mirrors", he's telling the truth, whether his arrogance allows him to realize it or not. The Packers have no business even being here, so that can only mean they'll probably cover or even win. Just kidding, they should get demolished. I wish I could say the same thing about...never mind. 




Stay tuned for Tuesday's Gone: Week 20 #NFL Game Reviews CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND EDITION coming Friday!


 











Wednesday, January 15, 2020

PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Tuesday's Gone: Week 19 #NFL Game Reviews DIVISIONAL ROUND EDITION

2019 NFL SEASON 
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Tuesday's Gone: Week 19  #NFL Game Reviews
DIVISIONAL ROUND EDITION


2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:
165-89-1 .650 (WINS); 137-110-8 .555 (ATS); 134-115-6 .538 (O/U)

TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:
48-23-3 (.676)

2020 NFL PLAYOFFS
 2-6 .250 (WINS); 3-5 .375 (ATS); 1-7 .125 (O/U)
 
Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All images from Google with permission to reuse without license* Statistical sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider


NEW TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON
< Drake voice >
"TOP 5 TOP 5 TOP 5"
 
Pro Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week for either the spread OR O/U denoted by an asterisk (*). Roll with our Top 5 and watch the money pile up all season!



 Anthony Barr will need to step it up if he's going to help the Vikings beat the mighty 49ers at home.


Minnesota Vikings (6) 10-6 (+7) @ San Francisco 49ers (1) 13-3 (44.5): 49ers 27-21 49ers 27-10
Saturday, 4:35 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Clearing; mid-50s)
Keys: How do I put this? The 49ers are better on every single level. Offense. Defense. Special teams. Coaching. In fact, Kyle Shanahan used to be Kirk Cousin’s coach. You like that? In fact, the only area the Vikings even compete with the 49ers in is pass rush: Both teams rank 5th with 48 sacks on the season. One might think these defenses rank out similarly, but not when we take into account SoS, in which the 49ers was nearly twice as difficult. Now, I’m clearly no expert, having gone 0-4 last week and only 2-2 ATS, but there’s not that much to dissect with this game. The Vikings roll into San Francisco halfway across the country with a defense not quite as stout as it once was and two stars on offense that aren’t 100% (Dalvin Cook; Adam Thielen). The 49ers roll out of fresh bed fresh as a daisy with the highest rated player in the NFL according to PFF (George Kittle) and the most depth at RB of any team in the league. Seven points is a lot to lay in any NFL game, especially a playoff game, and especially to a team coming off a playoff win by a team that hasn’t played in two weeks, but the 49ers winning is likely a foregone conclusion. 

The 49ers came out crisp, clean and rested. The Vikings came out off a great Wild Card win over at the New Orleans Saints and answered the 49ers 1Q score. Things were looking good for the Vikings cover, especially at halftime when the 49ers only led 14-10. The game was playing out as expected. Then all 49ers broke loose, with San Francisco scoring 13 unanswered points in the second half on their way to completely shutting down the Vikings supposedly vaunted offense. Dalvin Cook was held to 18 rushing yards on 9 carries. Lil' Brat, aka, Stephon Diggs led the team with two receptions and 57 receiving yards, including the Vikings only TD on a poorly thrown ball that was completely misplayed by the defender. In other words, the game should've been 27-3 and Kevin Stephanski should not be a head coach. Have we forgotten the Vikings brought in Gary Kubiak because the Vikings couldn't get out of their own way on offense? Good thing Stephanski isn't a minority because he never would have got the job with Cleveland. That's a knock on the racist NFL in case you're confused. The 49ers are the most complete team left in the playoffs, and if Jimmy G doesn't screw it up, the 49ers might win a Super Bowl the first year they've been back to the playoffs since they lost their last Super Bowl with...Colin Kaepernick. Did someone say racist?
 


The question on everyone's mind is whether or not likely 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson can not only handle the rain, but the long rest.



Tennessee Titans (6) 9-7 (+9.5) @ Baltimore Ravens (1) 14-2 (47): Ravens 28-20 Titans 28-12

Saturday, 8:15 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: 70% rain; low 60s) 

Keys: Can the Titans slay two giants back-to-back? Well, the Patriots were largely overrated giants this season and the Ravens haven’t played meaningful football in nearly three weeks. That could be trouble, because not only is Baltimore relying on a well-oiled machine, some of the parts are broken and might not be repaired by Sunday (Mark Ingram; Mark Andrews). The Titans might seem like the dark horse favorite here, but their offense, one of the best in the NFL the second half of the season, was held to 14 against the Patriots on Ryan Tannehill’s 72 passing yards; Derrick Henry’s 182-yard performance was allowed by Bill Belichick so he could focus on the Titans air attack, which was stifled. The Ravens rank out as one of the better teams in the past few decades, let alone this season, but things could be much different with a sizable break, pouring rain and key pieces missing; losing Ingram could be devastating. The Ravens have locked down opposing passing games since they traded for Marcus Peters, so it’ll be up to Henry again, although the Ravens largely lock that down, too, ranking in the top-10 in attempts, yards and TDs (21st YPA, however). The bottom line is the Ravens likely win due to their suffocating defense and home field advantage, and the fact that their scoring and yardage offense and scoring and yardage defense rank an eye-pleasing 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th, but like we talked about with the MINvsSF game, 9.5 points is a crazy amount, especially under these weather and rest conditions. Mortgage on the Titans time? 

Holy sh*t. I still believe in Lamar Jackson going forward, but if I hear one more podcaster or football analyst try to convince me Jackson's 500+ total yards weren't largely garbage yards I'm going to lose it. By my calculations about half of those yards were, because they came in the last 19 minutes of the game, after it was out of hand, with the score going from 28-6 to 28-12 in that span, in which three of the Ravens four drives ended on downs (2) or a TO. The Tennessee Henrys were just dominant, with Derrick Henry running for 195 yards on 30 carries (6.4 ypc) on the Ravens 21st-ranked ypa run defense. Ryan Tannehill won another playoff game throwing fewer than 90 yards, but the game was really about Henry and the Titans defense, which held everyone but Jackson and Hollywood Brown in check, which we can presume was probably the game plan. Henry is on pace for about 125 carries in a month, so it's a good thing it's the last month.
 


Will he screw it up?


Houston Texans (4) 10-6 (+9.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (2) 12-4 (51): Chiefs 31-23 Chiefs 51-31

Sunday, 3:05 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Mostly Sunny; high 30s)

Keys: The Texans narrowly escaped with a win in the Wild Card Round, mounting one of the largest playoff comebacks in NFL history against the Buffalo Bills, but as impressive as that is, the Bills offense isn’t the Chiefs offense and New Era Stadium isn’t Arrowhead Stadium. Josh Allen also isn’t Patrick Mahomes, but Deshaun Watson is. In fact, the two QBs, taken two spots from each other in the 2017 NFL draft, is arguably more dynamic than Mahomes, although no one is arguing who has the better arm talent. In addition, both QBs have struggled relatively this season, whether via injury or lack of support. Coaching plays a large role, too, as both coaches have famously fumbled away home playoff games. The Chiefs have an elite passing game, and believe it or not, a quasi-elite passing defense. The Chiefs also rank 11th with 45 sacks. The Texans are none of these things. Much like Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks, the Texans are too Watson reliant, which is ironic considering NRG Stadium used to be called Reliant Stadium, and this Chiefs defense is good enough to stifle Watson, and, therefore, the Texans. However, I hate these large point spreads and even this match up isn’t lopsided enough to warrant nearly 10 points.

The Chiefs came out flat and dropping passes, and the Texans jumped out to a 24-0 lead five minutes in the 2Q. Notice the final score was 51-31? Imagine leading 24-0 and seeing your opponent go on a 51-7 run in the final 40 minutes of the game? How about losing a 24-0 lead in 10 minutes within the 2Q to go into the half down 28-24? The Chiefs scored 21 points in a matter of just over three minutes in the 2Q as I watched my money start to disappear and then fully disappear as the Chiefs won the second half 23-7.The combination of Patrick Mahomes (321 passing yards; 5 TDs) and Travis Kelce (10 receptions for 134 yards; 3 TDs) was too much for the shell-shocked Texans, despite Deshaun Watson's (388 passing yards; 2 TDs) stellar and De'Andre Hopkins (9 receptions for 118 yards) heroic performances. Add this to the list of Bill O'Brien blunders, because the Texans are now owners of one of the biggest collapses in NFL playoff history.  You screwed me, Billy, you screwed me!
 


It's Russell Wislon or bust for the Seattle Seahawks, but what else is new since the fall of the Legion of Boom?

Seattle Seahawks (5) 11-5 (+4.5) @ Green Bay Packers (2) 13-3 (46.5): Seahawks 23-21
Sunday, 6:40 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Wintry mix; high 20s) 
Keys: Introducing the two most overrated teams in the NFL. We’ve talked all year about the Seahawks mediocrity disguised by Russell Wilson’s polish, but before you go thinking I’m about to write the same thing about Green Bay, think again. The Packers might have won the same amount of games with Alex Smith because Aaron Rodgers has become the most glorified game manager since 2001-2003 Tom Brady. But Aaron Rodgers doesn’t throw any INTs! Right, because he doesn’t take any chances. It’s hard to throw INTs when you never take risks. If you think I’m kidding look no further than the Packers middle-of-the-pack offense, which is anchored by that middle-of-the-road passing game (17th ATS; 16th YDS; 14th TDs; 16th YPA). The running game is literally no better, ranking almost identically across the board, despite Aaron Jones, a nearly 1,100-yard rusher with 16 TDs on the season. No, the Packers owe most of their season to a decent defense (9th ranked scoring defense) and one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. Even so, Green Bay’s Expected W-L Record was 9.7-6.3, which would have been good enough for a six-seed, not one of the two byes awarded the NFC. Hey, at least it’s better than Seattle’s Expected W-L Record of 8.2-7.8, which means, technically, the Seahawks should’ve missed the playoffs completely. However, you can ask Billy Beane about the numbers – they don’t always tell the whole story, hence the Seahawks v. the Packers in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. Don’t be fooled by the Seahawks defensive performance against Josh McCown, because they’ve been mostly abysmal, but we just talked about the Packers offense in the same light. So what gives? At this point in 2020 I’m not betting on Rodgers anymore, but I'm certainly not betting against Russell Wilson and it’s about as simple as that. Like a “pack of badgers”, what ever the hell that mix of Wilson’s college teams is supposed to mean. Maybe it means it’ll feel like a home game for Wilson, which only supports my assertions.

The Seahawks failed to convert a 2PAT to bring the score to 28-25 at the 9:33 mark of the 4Q and yet another cover was busted for me as I continued my miserable 2020 playoff run. I'm not even sure I want to talk about this game, because neither if these teams even deserve to be in the playoffs according to some advanced metrics, and Aaron Rodgers is the, well I already said it, the most glorified game manager since prefaux hair Tom Brady. God these playoffs have pissed me off, and between the fraudulent Vikings, the historically disappointing Texans and the Seattle Wilsons losing the cover by 0.5 points, the Divisional Round turned out worse for me than the Wild Card Round, where I'm not sure I got a single thing right. It's not like anyone reads these articles anyway.




Stay tuned for Week 20: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND EDITION coming Friday!