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Wednesday, February 10, 2021

PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Tuesday's Gone: Week 21 #NFL Game Reviews SUPER BOWL LV

   2020 NFL SEASON 

P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
 Tuesday's Gone: Week 21 #NFL Game Reviews
SUPER BOWL LV

 
2020 SEASON TOTALS:
174-81-1 .682 (WINS); 129-119-8 .520 (ATS); 129-123-4 .512 (O/U)
   
TOP 5 GAMES 2020 SEASON TOTAL: 
43-35-2 .551
 
SUPER BOWL LV 
0-1 .000 (WINS); 0-1 .000 (ATS); 1-0 1.000 (O/U)
 
2020 NFL PLAYOFFS 
7-6 .538 (WINS); 6-7 .462 (ATS); 5-8 .385 (O/U)

 
Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): EWL (Expected W-L record); SoS (Strength of Schedule); SRS (Simple Rating System from PFR); Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 1st downs (1st); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); P/R NY/A (Pass/Rush Net yards/attempt); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All images from Google using Creative Commons license unless otherwise stated (including source)
 
 
DISCLAIMER: PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA IS FOR ANALYZING NFL FOOTBALL GAMES AND IS NOT A BETTING WEBSITE  
 
 
Last season PFM began the < Drake voice > "TOP 5 TOP 5 TOP 5" segment, where PFM chooses their Top 5 Betting Games of the Week using either the spread OR O/U (denoted by an asterisk *). Roll with our Top 5 and watch the money pile up all season!
 

Good luck at the window this season and enjoy the 2020 NFL season whiles it lasts, because with the ways things are going it won't be long!


Super Bowl LV features the greatest QB that has ever played in NFL history in Tom Brady v. the guy everyone expects to eventually take his crown in Patrick Mahomes. Buckle up. (Image credit: CBS Sports)


1 Kansas City Chiefs 14-2 (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11-5 (56.5): Chiefs 32-24 Buccaneers 31-9

Sunday6:30 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Chance rain; low 70s)


Keys: The focus here is always the games ATS and statistics are obviously a huge aspect of these previews. In fact, many times the numbers almost bog down the preview to the point of “paralysis by analysis”. The Super Bowl can be more about the story lines than the Xs and Os, and there are almost too many story lines to speak of here. The Buccaneers are the first team in NFL history to host the Super Bowl. Tom Brady left New England and came to Tampa Bay to do exactly this. Brady is playing in his 10th Super Bowl and has won six. The man who prevented him from winning two more Super Bowls, Jason Pierre-Paul, is now on his side. Patrick Mahomes is playing in his second Super Bowl in four years, which sounds a lot like the start to Brady’s career. Andy Reid has a chance to solidify himself as one of the greatest coaches in NFL history. Speaking of coaches we’re about to witness Tom Brady v. Steve Spagnuolo III, and we all know how the first two went (Spagnuolo 2-0).

Super Bowl LV comes down to experience, without a doubt, but many people are focusing on the wrong experience. While many are focused on Brady’s 10th Super Bowl, I’m focused on Kansas City’s second in two years. While many speak of the experience Brady brings to Tampa Bay, I speak of how little experience Tampa Bay brings Brady. Sure, Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians has two rings as a Pittsburgh Steelers assistant; a number of other Buccaneers assistants have Super Bowl experience as wellSeveral players have limited Super Bowl experience, while a few have extensive experience, most notably Brady’s New England Patriots teammate Rob Gronkowski and Pierre-Paul, whose experience with the New York Giants famously came at Brady’s expense. I’m talking more about Tampa Bay’s current stars, guys like Mike Evans and Devon White, to name a few, who play critical roles on both sides of the ball and haven’t seen anything like the pressure of the Super Bowl, although one could argue covid has largely alleviated most of the outside pressures. The simple fact the Chiefs were just there, and faced an even better defense in the San Francisco 49ers, bodes well for Kansas City, as does the fact Frank Clark, with all of his experience playing in recent Super Bowls with the Seattle Seahawks, plays his best in the big game.

The bottom line to this game is simple: Can Patrick Mahomes overcome the injuries along his offensive line and do Patrick Mahomes things? If so, it’s over for the Buccaneers. Does Spagnuolo and the Chiefs, with Clark and Chris Jones, rattle Brady a la Pierre-Paul all those years back? Then it’s over for the Buccaneers. But if it starts raining, and/or the Chiefs offensive line starts breaking under Todd Bowles’ defensive pass rush schemes and/or the Chiefs have to rely solely on the running game more than anticipated against the Buccaneers top-ranked rush defense, then Tampa Bay has a chance. I don’t buy into the “don’t bet against Tom Brady” creeds, not only because I witnessed those aforementioned losses to the New York Giants, and the Philadelphia Eagles (not to mention the miracle win that occurred v. the Atlanta Falcons), as a devoted Patriots fan, but also because that was a Patriots dynasty filled with coaches and players that combined have 100 or more Super Bowl games worth of experience, most notably Bill Belichick, who helped guide of one the greatest defenses in NFL history in the New York Giants to two Super Bowls in the late 80s. This time around for Brady the Super Bowl will be more like taking aspects of his Super Bowl games from the early (defense) and late (WR talentought's and mixing it with his diminished skillset. In other words, there’s potential for greatness, but there’s equal potential for disaster, because if we remember correctly, those explosive Patriots offenses couldn’t score when it mattered most, and that’s when Brady had a stronger and more accurate arm and was a little more mobile, for whatever that’s worthThat’s where Spagnuolo comes into play most. It’s hard to believe Spagnuolo won’t have another plan for Brady with Jones and Clark et al.

So how does Super Bowl LV plays out? I don’t think the Chiefs will be forced solely into the run game, and I don’t think Mahomes will succumb to the pass rush. Some of Mahomes best work comes out of the pocket, which is the last thing you would ever say about Brady. I don’t think the rain will effect anyone, unless there’s a lightning delay, which would be terrible for Brady. You might laugh, but Brady struggles after 8 pm anyway, and a long delay is hurting the 43-year old a lot more than it’s hurting the 25-year old. As far as Pierre-Paul is concerned, he’s not even a starter anymore and his last Super Bowl heroics were ten years ago, so if he has another dominant performance on Sunday I’ll be surprised, even against back-up offensive linemen. Buccaneers LB Devin White could have a game, but it’s more likely the guy he’ll have to cover at times in TE Travis Kelce will have the game. The Tampa Bay defense is one of the best in the NFL, but they haven’t faced an explosive team like Kansas City with the likes of Kelce and WR Tyreek Hill led by a guy like Mahomes. But wait, they did, and although that Week 11 game seemed close (KC won 27-24), Tampa Bay was torched by three Mahomes to Hill TDs (Mahomes: 462 passing yards; Hill: 13 receptions for 269 yards). They say you don’t bet against Tom Brady, but it’s starting to look like you shouldn’t bet against Patrick Mahomes, because the big games seem to wake these Chiefs up, and there’s no bigger game than Super Bowl LV. Good luck at the window Sunday and we’ll see you next season. Maybe even in person!

If you came here for a Super Bowl LV review you came to the wrong place. If you came here for bitterness pull up a chair. First, let me take my lumps. When an assistant coach of the Chiefs hits children with his car while allegedly drunk the night before the SB, and one of the injuries is life-threatening, and the coach happens to be the embattled son of Chiefs head coach Andy Reid, it should've been a huge red flag for any bettor. I never should've bet so confidently on a team missing key offensive linemen. I should've payed more attention to Patrick Mahomes' turf toe, which hampered his mobility, something I keyed in on for SBLV. I should've payed more attention to mismatches among the Chiefs poor LBs and DBs with the Buccaneers dynamic WRS, including, of course, Gronk and AB, which brings me to the meat of my SBLV review: Fuck the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Fuck Tom Brady and his calculating Tom v. Time and upcoming "no one believes in me" documentaries. Fuck Brady's aww shucks attitude as he proudly displays a MAGA hat in his locker. Fuck Brady unceremoniously leaving New England acting like he was wronged for 20 years because he actually sucks if he doesn't have an All-Pro squad around him. Fuck his corny legacy, which is clearly the only thing he cares about. It certainly isn't integrity, as Brady repeatedly went to bat for a serial domestic abuser and alleged rapist in Antonio Brown. Fuck Antonio Brown while we're at it, but he's hardly worth a sentence on this website. Fuck Gronk, who stood at the podium of the CBD company he was repping before the Bucs signed him and cried about how much football damaged his body and brain and how he'd never play again. Fuck Leonard Fournette, who was such a disappointment after being drafted 4th and such a chemistry issue the Buccaneers landed him for pennies on the dollar. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers put it all in to win a Super Bowl and it worked. While I'm at it, fuck Florida. Those people don't even care about people dying of covid, so why would they care if one of their WRs is the biggest piece of shit this side of Tyreek Hill, who looked like a clown Sunday. Yes, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are Super Bowl LV champions and all they had to do was mortgage their future and their soul to do it.  



Thanks for the continued Pro Football Media support in this covid- and socio-politically-ravaged year. 2020 was certainly challenging on myriad levels, and in this context, calling NFL games. Next season brings big changes. PFM is for sale, and if sold, likely won't be controlled by me. If PFM isn't sold in 2021 the plan is to add Podcast Gone, a weekly podcast form of PFM, with an associated You Tube channel featuring Tuesday's Gone, which will become a weekly video segment of highlights of the podcast and subsequent game reviews accompanying the website. No one reads anymore. Thanks for the continued support and with that we bid you, and 2020, a goodnight, goodnight, goodniiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight. 












 
 

Friday, February 5, 2021

PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Week 21: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) SUPER BOWL LV

   2020 NFL SEASON 

P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
 Week 21: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
SUPER BOWL LV

 
2020 SEASON TOTALS:
174-81-1 .682 (WINS); 129-119-8 .520 (ATS); 129-123-4 .512 (O/U)
   
TOP 5 GAMES 2020 SEASON TOTAL: 
43-35-2 .551
 
CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND 
0-2 .000 (WINS); 1-1 .500 (ATS); 0-2 .000 (O/U)
 
2020 NFL PLAYOFFS 
7-5 .583 (WINS); 6-6 .500 (ATS); 5-7 .417 (O/U)

 
Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): EWL (Expected W-L record); SoS (Strength of Schedule); SRS (Simple Rating System from PFR); Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 1st downs (1st); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); P/R NY/A (Pass/Rush Net yards/attempt); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All images from Google using Creative Commons license unless otherwise stated (including source)
 
 
DISCLAIMER: PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA IS FOR ANALYZING NFL FOOTBALL GAMES AND IS NOT A BETTING WEBSITE  
 
 
Last season PFM began the < Drake voice > "TOP 5 TOP 5 TOP 5" segment, where PFM chooses their Top 5 Betting Games of the Week using either the spread OR O/U (denoted by an asterisk *). Roll with our Top 5 and watch the money pile up all season!
 

Good luck at the window this season and enjoy the 2020 NFL season whiles it lasts, because with the ways things are going it won't be long!


Super Bowl LV features the greatest QB that has ever played in NFL history in Tom Brady v. the guy everyone expects to eventually take his crown in Patrick Mahomes. Buckle up. (Image credit: CBS Sports)


1 Kansas City Chiefs 14-2 (-3.5) @ 5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11-5 (56.5): Chiefs 32-24

Sunday, 6:30 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Chance rain; low 70s)


Keys: The focus here is always the games ATS and statistics are obviously a huge aspect of these previews. In fact, many times the numbers almost bog down the preview to the point of “paralysis by analysis”. The Super Bowl can be more about the story lines than the Xs and Os, and there are almost too many story lines to speak of here. The Buccaneers are the first team in NFL history to host the Super Bowl. Tom Brady left New England and came to Tampa Bay to do exactly this. Brady is playing in his 10th Super Bowl and has won six. The man who prevented him from winning two more Super Bowls, Jason Pierre-Paul, is now on his side. Patrick Mahomes is playing in his second Super Bowl in four years, which sounds a lot like the start to Brady’s career. Andy Reid has a chance to solidify himself as one of the greatest coaches in NFL history. Speaking of coaches we’re about to witness Tom Brady v. Steve Spagnuolo III, and we all know how the first two went (Spagnuolo 2-0).

Super Bowl LV comes down to experience, without a doubt, but many people are focusing on the wrong experience. While many are focused on Brady’s 10th Super Bowl, I’m focused on Kansas City’s second in two years. While many speak of the experience Brady brings to Tampa Bay, I speak of how little experience Tampa Bay brings Brady. Sure, Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians has two rings as a Pittsburgh Steelers assistant; a number of other Buccaneers assistants have Super Bowl experience as well. Several players have limited Super Bowl experience, while a few have extensive experience, most notably Brady’s New England Patriots teammate Rob Gronkowski and Pierre-Paul, whose experience with the New York Giants famously came at Brady’s expense. I’m talking more about Tampa Bay’s current stars, guys like Mike Evans and Devon White, to name a few, who play critical roles on both sides of the ball and haven’t seen anything like the pressure of the Super Bowl, although one could argue covid has largely alleviated most of the outside pressures. The simple fact the Chiefs were just there, and faced an even better defense in the San Francisco 49ers, bodes well for Kansas City, as does the fact Frank Clark, with all of his experience playing in recent Super Bowls with the Seattle Seahawks, plays his best in the big game.

The bottom line to this game is simple: Can Patrick Mahomes overcome the injuries along his offensive line and do Patrick Mahomes things? If so, it’s over for the Buccaneers. Does Spagnuolo and the Chiefs, with Clark and Chris Jones, rattle Brady a la Pierre-Paul all those years back? Then it’s over for the Buccaneers. But if it starts raining, and/or the Chiefs offensive line starts breaking under Todd Bowles’ defensive pass rush schemes and/or the Chiefs have to rely solely on the running game more than anticipated against the Buccaneers top-ranked rush defense, then Tampa Bay has a chance. I don’t buy into the “don’t bet against Tom Brady” creeds, not only because I witnessed those aforementioned losses to the New York Giants, and the Philadelphia Eagles (not to mention the miracle win that occurred v. the Atlanta Falcons), as a devoted Patriots fan, but also because that was a Patriots dynasty filled with coaches and players that combined have 100 or more Super Bowl games worth of experience, most notably Bill Belichick, who helped guide of one the greatest defenses in NFL history in the New York Giants to two Super Bowls in the late 80s. This time around for Brady the Super Bowl will be more like taking aspects of his Super Bowl games from the early (defense) and late (WR talentought's and mixing it with his diminished skillset. In other words, there’s potential for greatness, but there’s equal potential for disaster, because if we remember correctly, those explosive Patriots offenses couldn’t score when it mattered most, and that’s when Brady had a stronger and more accurate arm and was a little more mobile, for whatever that’s worth. That’s where Spagnuolo comes into play most. It’s hard to believe Spagnuolo won’t have another plan for Brady with Jones and Clark et al.

So how does Super Bowl LV plays out? I don’t think the Chiefs will be forced solely into the run game, and I don’t think Mahomes will succumb to the pass rush. Some of Mahomes best work comes out of the pocket, which is the last thing you would ever say about Brady. I don’t think the rain will effect anyone, unless there’s a lightning delay, which would be terrible for Brady. You might laugh, but Brady struggles after 8 pm anyway, and a long delay is hurting the 43-year old a lot more than it’s hurting the 25-year old. As far as Pierre-Paul is concerned, he’s not even a starter anymore and his last Super Bowl heroics were ten years ago, so if he has another dominant performance on Sunday I’ll be surprised, even against back-up offensive linemen. Buccaneers LB Devin White could have a game, but it’s more likely the guy he’ll have to cover at times in TE Travis Kelce will have the game. The Tampa Bay defense is one of the best in the NFL, but they haven’t faced an explosive team like Kansas City with the likes of Kelce and WR Tyreek Hill led by a guy like Mahomes. But wait, they did, and although that Week 11 game seemed close (KC won 27-24), Tampa Bay was torched by three Mahomes to Hill TDs (Mahomes: 462 passing yards; Hill: 13 receptions for 269 yards). They say you don’t bet against Tom Brady, but it’s starting to look like you shouldn’t bet against Patrick Mahomes, because the big games seem to wake these Chiefs up, and there’s no bigger game than Super Bowl LV. Good luck at the window Sunday and we’ll see you next season. Maybe even in person!


Stay tuned for PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Tuesday's Gone: Week 21 #NFL Game Reviews SUPER BOWL LV EDITION coming Wednesday by the morning commute!












 
 

Tuesday, January 26, 2021

PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Tuesday's Gone: Week 20 #NFL Game Reviews CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND

  2020 NFL SEASON 

P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Tuesday's Gone: Week 20 #NFL Game Reviews
CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND

 
2020 SEASON TOTALS:
174-81-1 .682 (WINS); 129-119-8 .520 (ATS); 129-123-4 .512 (O/U)
   
TOP 5 GAMES 2020 SEASON TOTAL: 
43-35-2 .551
 
CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND 
0-2 .000 (WINS); 1-1 .500 (ATS); 0-2 .000 (O/U)
 
2020 NFL PLAYOFFS 
7-5 .583 (WINS); 6-6 .500 (ATS); 5-7 .417 (O/U)

 
Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): EWL (Expected W-L record); SoS (Strength of Schedule); SRS (Simple Rating System from PFR); Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 1st downs (1st); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); P/R NY/A (Pass/Rush Net yards/attempt); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All images from Google using Creative Commons license unless otherwise stated (including source)
 
 
DISCLAIMER: PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA IS FOR ANALYZING NFL FOOTBALL GAMES AND IS NOT A BETTING WEBSITE  
 
 
Last season PFM began the < Drake voice > "TOP 5 TOP 5 TOP 5" segment, where PFM chooses their Top 5 Betting Games of the Week using either the spread OR O/U (denoted by an asterisk *). Roll with our Top 5 and watch the money pile up all season!
 

Good luck at the window this season and enjoy the 2020 NFL season whiles it lasts, because with the ways things are going it won't be long!


There's no doubt Patrick Mahomes has ruled the NFL for the past few years, but he's got a competing peer in Josh Allen that wants that Super Bowl spotlight. (Image credit: Cheifs.com)


5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11-5 (+3.5) @ Green Bay Packers 13-3 (52): Packers 27-24 Buccaneers 31-26

Sunday3:05 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: 50% wintry mixhigh 20s) 

Keys: The Buccaneers certainly don’t have the weather going for them Sunday, but what they do have is the experience of 13 conference championships and nine Super Bowls in QB Tom Brady, easily the most decorated player in the modern NFL history. The guy on the other side is no slouch, either; fellow future first-ballot HoF and 2020 1st Team All-Pro QB Aaron Rodgers owns the highest TD:INT ratio in NFL history by far (4.6:1). There’s also history between the two, having played three times against each other in their long careers, including Week 6; Brady holds the 2-1 advantageSpeaking of Week 6, the Buccaneers destroyed the Packers 38-10, after Green Bay held a 10-0 lead in the 1Q, but that game had little to so with Brady’s two TDs and more about Rodgers’ two INTs. That was also a big game for Ronald Jones II, who rushed for 113 yards and two TDs, which will also be key again in the NFC Championship game. As for Green Bay’s 8th ranked run game, the perfect play-action decoy machine for Rodgers and Davante Adams, they face they get to face the top run defense in the NFL. Speaking of Davante Adams, the 2020 1st team All-Pro gets to face Carlton Davis, who had 4 INTs and 18 PD. On the other side of the field the Buccaneers are bested at the WR position by few, if any, teams, but all three of their starting WRS – Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown - are questionable, not to mention 2nd Team All-Pro CB Jaire Alexander waiting in the wings. The game also features two top-10 pass rushes (TB: 5th; GB: 10th), including three All-Pro ends (Za’Darius Smith) and LBs (Devon White; Levonte David), but they both face equally good, if not better, pass protection (GB: 3rd; TB: 4th). The one real advantage the Packers have is special teams, but Mason Crosby is the only player of note on the Green Bay injury list besides backup RB Jamal Williams, which could come into play if any long a/o windy kickarise, especially under pressureWith things so even across the board, I can’t help but come back to the weather. The funny thing is both of these QBs excel in bad weather and have played through it their entire NFL careers, but as we know, this is a team sport and how many of Brady's teammates can claim the same? If the Packers offensive line keeps playing the way they have been without David Bakhtiari, and can get the run game going at all, it could be a long day for Tampa Bay in the cold rain and snow as Green Bay enacts revenge on the Buccaneers at home. But if Tampa Bay’s top-ranked run defense and their All-Pro LBs shut down Aaron Jones, and they get to focus on Adams, perhaps Brady and Brown can rekindle that winter NFL playoff magic they’ve been accustomed to on their former respective teams and pull off the upset, or at least the cover. Between the weather, momentum, home field advantage and the fact the football gods would never let a team host the Super Bowl, even the might Golden Boy can’t punch this ticket.

Let's see how many thing I got wrong. The weather. Antonio Brown being involved at all. Assuming the will of the footballs gods. Yikes. Both HoF QBs played great (Tom Brady: 3 TDs; Aaron Rodgers: 3 TDs & 1 INT), the Buccaneers shut down the Packers run game, injuring Aaron Jones (6 CAR for 27 YDS) in the process, and Brady turned what was going to be a punt to end the first half into a last second TD after Kevin King let Scotty Miller slip past him in a broken coverage/lack of respect play for the ages, putting Tampa Bay up 21-10 heading into the half instead of 14-10. Relax with the "Brady is a genius!" stuff and ramp up the "Why the hell would no-risk-it-no-biscuit Arians punt there?" talk. I digress. Brady is headed to his 10th Super Bowl, with another team from the NFC to boot, which just happens to be in Tampa Bay, making the Buccaneers the first team in NFL history to host the Super Bowl. It seems like everything this dude touches turns to...gold. Ahhh, that's why they call him that. 




Buffalo Bills 13-3 (+2.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs 14-2 (56)Bills 28-27 Chiefs 38-24

Sunday, 6:40 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: 40% rainmid-40s)

Keys: The most obvious key here is 2nd Team All-Pro QB Patrick Mahomes health and not necessarily being 100% against the Bills and QB Josh Allen, who just happens to be the guy that tied him for the 2nd All-Pro QB spot. It doesn’t end there for accolades for the top two seeds in the AFC; these teams combined for nine All-Pro selections (1st Team: KC TE Travis Kelce & BUF WR Stephon Diggs; 2nd Team: Mahomes, Allen, KC WR Tyreek Hill, KC DT Chris Jones, KC DB Tyrann Mathieu, BUF CB Tre’Davious White & BUF WR Cole Beasley) making for several interesting and key match ups. Buffalo’s defense will have a hard time containing Kelce, and even one of the best CBs in the league in White will have difficulty with Hill, although Bills fans will fondly remember November 6th, 2017 when White had the game-clinching INT and Hill chased himThat was Alex Smith though, who sits right between Mahomes and Chiefs back up QB Chad Henne on the talent scale. I have to keep scaling back to Mahomes’ health, though, because if Mahomes is healthy he has weapons on every level of the field and a defense with All-Pros anchoring the front and back ends of the defense. Josh Allen is a multi-tool QBthough, essentially a far more mobile young Ben Roethlisberger, which means even the All-Pro Chris Jones will have a hard time bringing him down if he can even catch Allen. Buffalo’s offensive line is no joke, either, allowing the 9th fewest sacks in the league, although you could thank Allen’s legs for much of thatKansas City’s run game is far superior to the Billsbut they’re banged up (Clyde Edwards-Helaire & Le’Veon Bell Q), putting more pressure on Mahomes to fill the potential void if Darrell Williams and Darwin Thompson can’t fill it. Speaking of banged up RBs, Buffalo’s back up in Zack Moss is gone (IR 1/19), the only players of consequence listed on the injury report early this besides their two All-Pro WRs Diggs and Beasley, who should be good to go. So we have All-Pro secondaries vs All-Pro WRs. We have All-Pro pass rushers vs All-Pro mobile QBs. We have All-Pro play makers all over the field. These teams, or more accurately these two QBs, have only faced off once, Week 6, when the Chiefs beat the Bills 26-17It rained heavy in that game, too. Both QBs struggling in the rainbut played well enough to win, with Allen leading in both passing and rushing. You couldn’t even argue Allen’s late 4Q INT was the difference in a nine-point game as that INT was essentially a Hail Mary pickAllen has thrown 6 INTs since the one he threw at home Week 6, which is equivalent to an INT every 71.3 PA. In other words, INTs aren’t a problem. Speaking of Hail Marys the Bills would have the same records as the Chiefs (14-2) if not for the Hail Hopkins vs the Arizona Cardinals Week 10, although it’s a moot point considering the head-to-head tie-breaker with KC. So what gives with all this All-Pro talent and only one game in which to gauge history? How about All-Pro coaching? The AFC Championships features two of the best coaches in the NFL, and while Andy Reid is famous for his greatness and gaffes, Sean McDermott has flown relatively under the radar because, unlike most of us Irish, he’s quiet, and a no-nonsense guy who just seems to get the best out of his players, but without the monumental head scratchers Reid has become famous for. Call me crazy, but when you take the weather, coaching, momentum and a wobbly Patrick Mahomes, who couldn’t stand on his own feet six days ago, I lean, no pun intended, towards the Bills. Buffalo has basically replaced the Chiefs as the most explosive team heading towards the playoffsand as well as the Chiefs defense has played all year, how many offenses like the Bills have they faced? Break out the Pinot and the condiments, Ron, it’s 1993 again. 

Let's see how many things I got wrong in this game. The weather. The Bills momentum. Andy Reid making any mistakes. Worst yet was assuming Patrick Mahomes (325 PYDS; 3 TDs) would have any issues a week after suffering  a concussion. Instead, Mahomes helped Travis Kelce (REC w/ 13) and Tyreek Hill (REC YDS w/ 172) break playoff records. Josh Allen (287 PYDS; 3 TDs) played a great game, too, even leading the Bills in rushing with 88 yards, but he also threw an INT that led to Kansas City putting the game away in the 4Q. Now the Chiefs head to Tampa Bay to play the Buccaneers at their own stadium, while the Bills prepare for 2021 and probably the exact same AFC Championship game next year. 



Stay tuned for PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Week 21: #NFL Game Prediction (w/ the spread & analysis) SUPER BOWL LV EDITION coming Saturday February 6th!