2021 NFL SEASON
Week 4 #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
SUNDAY EDITION
Good luck at the window this season!
Jacksonville Jaguars 0-3 (+7.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals 2-1 (46): Bengals 30-20
Thursday, 8:20 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Cloudy; high 50s)
Keys: The growing pains are real for the Jaguars, but don't expect the Bengals to feel bad because they're still getting over theirs. Some act as if beating a mediocre Pittsburgh Steelers team with a beat-up Ben Roethlisberger was a sign things have turned around for Cincinnati, but give me a break. Trevor Lawrence has shown flashes of great, but life is different when you don't have better offensive linemen and skill position players than any other team you play against besides the team you perennially play in the National Championship every season. No, now he's quite literally playing with some of the worst and it shows. The Bengals, on the other hand, are thought of as a young, potentially explosive offense led by Joe Burrow (they're not yet), but the truth of the matter is after three games they're the 6th-ranked total defense and the 8th-ranked scoring defense without playing three terrible teams. That doesn't bode well for Lawrence and rookie head coach Urban Meyer, who looks more like Keith Urban trying to coach this winless Jaguars game.
Washington Football Team 1-2 (-1.5) @ Atlanta Falcons 1-2 (48): Football Team 24-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: So much for that dominant defense. The WFT rank 29th in scoring defense and 31st in total defense, and without much offense to speak of, we have the reason the woeful Falcons are only getting 1.5 points. Luckily for Washington the Falcons rank about same in the respective offensive categories (28th total; 29th scoring).
Houston Texans 1-2 (+17.5) @ Buffalo Bills 2-1 (47): Bills 27-13
Sunday, 1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: 80% rain; low 70s)
Keys: The Bills could be the class of the NFL (3rd TO differential; 4th scoring offense; 4th scoring defense; 4th total defense; 7th sacks; top-10 special teams), but the Texans aren’t a complete laughing stock, ranking 4th in TOD to go along with a mediocre defense. I’m not saying they’re stopping the Bills in the least, but even the opening lines in Las Vegas had the Bills doubling up the Texans, but Buffalo could have a tough time winning by 18 or more in the driving rain unless the Texans completely tank, which could very well happen to the dome team.
Detroit Lions 0-3 (+3) @ Chicago Bears 1-2 (41.5): Bears 21-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: 80% rain; low 70s)
Keys: Yikes. This game is awful. The Bears have no offense to speak of (31st total offense; last scoring offense), but it’s not as if the winless Lions are blowing anyone away, although only the Lions could lose to a record-breaking 66-yard FG. This is another dome team playing a mudder in the pouring rain. That’s not true, the Bears run game ranks 19th, but you get the idea.
Kansas City Chiefs 1-2 (-7) @ Philadelphia Eagles 1-2 (54.5): Chiefs 30-27
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Mostly Sunny in Philadelphia; low 80s)
Keys: The last time the Chiefs were 1-2 it was 2015 and Alex Smith was the QB and their second-leading rusher. My have things have changed, but you don’t have to tell the Eagles that. I said last week the Chiefs would be vengeful, but I didn’t think Joey Bosa was playing, and was a huge difference in the game. This week plays out similarly, as the Eagles have a serious front seven, and the Chiefs are still angry. Look for this game to hit the over with the injuries to Frank Clark and Charvarius Ward. Fun fact: These teams combine for a one-point scoring differential, and that’s all Kansas City (KC: 31.3-30.3; PHI: 21.3-21.3).
Carolina Panthers 3-0 (+4) @ Dallas Cowboys 2-1 (51.5): Cowboys 24-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Panthers have the best total defense and the 2nd-ranked scoring defense, not to mention the 10th-ranked total offense, which believe it not, is mostly due to their 8th-ranked passing offense led by Sam Darnold. Head coach Matt Rhule has the Panthers off to their first 3-0 start since they went to the Super Bowl in 2015. Normally this would be a titanic match-up at RB, especially with CMC back and Ezekiel Elliot’s resurgence, but neither one of these teams gives up much on the ground.
Indianapolis Colts 0-3 (+2.5) @ Miami Dolphins 1-2 (42.5): Dolphins 23-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)
Keys: The 2021 season started with such optimism for these two teams, much like the majority of the country after our second shot, but here we all are in the same position wondering what the hell went wrong. The Colts know Jacoby Brissett well enough to cover 2.5 points, but Carson Wentz hasn’t showed us anything, banged up or not.
Cleveland Browns 2-1 (-2) @ Minnesota Vikings 1-2 (51.5): Browns 28-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Kirk Cousins is quietly molding the beginnings of an All-Pro season, throwing 8 TDs and 0 INTs, but doesn’t have the record to show for it. Dalvin Cook is questionable again coming into Sunday, but both teams are already banged up, especially Cleveland in the trenches. Both of these teams are offensive juggernauts (Total offense: MIN 3rd & CLE 6th; Scoring offense: MIN 7th & CLE 8th), but only Cleveland has lived up to the preseason hype defensively (3rd total defense; 7th scoring defense; 6th sacks). So what gives with the spread? Cleveland is 25th in TO ration (-2) and on the road against a great running team who doesn’t turn the ball over (+1).
New York Giants 0-3 (+7) @ New Orleans Saints 2-1 (42): Saints 23-15
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Giants could slow the Saints down Sunday, but that’s about it. The Giants don’t have an offense to wave a stick at and they’ll be without their two best WRs. The Saints secondary should have a field day creating coverage sacks and forcing the ball into Saquon Barkley’s hands.
Tennessee Titans 2-1 (-6) @ New York Jets 0-3 (44.5): Titans 27-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)
Keys: The winless Jets could give up a lot of rushing yards Sunday, but perhaps not, because in giving up 110 ypc they’ve actually faced three the better running teams in the league through three weeks. The reason the spread isn’t double digits is because the Titans are 31st in the league with a -6 TO ratio and they’ll be missing key players on both sides of the ball.
Arizona Cardinals 3-0 (+4) @ Los Angeles Rams 3-0 (54.5): Rams 30-27
Sunday, 4:05 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The only 3-0 match-up of the 2021 NFL season, the Rams are positioned as one of the best teams in the NFC, if not the NFL. The Cardinals are no slouches themselves, keeping pace with the Rams statistically on both sides of the ball and in point differential, albeit via different pathways. Arizona is clearly the better running team, but that has more to do with Kyler Murray’s scrambling; on defense the Rams are the superior run defense, while the Cardinals have the better passing defense by far. So essentially the game plan will fall right in line with both team’s strengths. You could argue for similar SoS through four weeks, and the Rams are recently battle-tested and are home, but Arizona getting four points is too tasty.
Seattle Seahawks 1-2 (+2.5) @ San Francisco 49ers 2-1 (52): Seahawks 27-24
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)
Keys: The Seahawks could use a little Sun, and there will be plenty in the greater San Jose area Sunday, and to make things a little brighter for Russell Wilson (7 TDs; 0 INTs) the 49ers could be without several of their CBs. Both a these teams came into 2021 with high hopes of competing in the best division in the NFL in the NFC West, but the Rams and Cardinals are both 3-0 (see above), which means if the Seahawks lose it could be the end of their season after four weeks. That’s enough of an impetus to take the Seahawks to win, let alone cover.
Baltimore Ravens 2-1 (-1) @ Denver Broncos 3-0 (44.5): Ravens 23-21
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Sunny; mid-70s)
Keys: The Broncos have been one of the surprises of 2021 starting the season 3-0, but so have the Ravens squeaking out a 2-1 record on the foot of a record-breaking 66-yard FG. In other words the Ravens are lucky to be 2-1 and could easily be 0-3. No one is aware of this more than John Harbaugh and this veteran Ravens team led by MVP Lamar Jackson, so as long as Baltimore can avoid Von Miller (4 sacks) and the Broncos rush (10th sacks), I’m taking the Ravens all day. I mean, all they have to do is tie.
Pittsburgh Steelers 1-2 (+6.5) @ Green Bay Packers 2-1 (45.5): Packers 27-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: 60% rain; low 60s)
Keys: The Packers defense is a little banged up, but so is the Steelers offense, who can’t score anyway. Aaron Rodgers did his annual “Don’t panic because we lost the opening game and I shit the bed, we’ll win out and I’ll probably win the MVP” campaign again right on schedule, so it’s probably not the best week to be the Steelers on the road in the driving rain. Look for the Packers to start getting their run game going in the mud, which will just make things easier for Rodgers and Davante West.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-1 (-7) @ New England Patriots 1-2 (49.5): Buccaneers 27-21
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: 80% rain; low 60s)
Keys: Tom Brady is about to get revenge on New England by bringing covid up here from Florida. Did you see this dude last week? Florida Man looked like they just took the ventilator out of his mouth and he’d been in Green Bay, WI all season instead of sunny Tampa Bay. Things have been a little different here in New England since Brady left, but the same can’t be said for Brady, who is still winning Super Bowls and breaking records. As for Rob Gronkowski, he’s still hurt so nothing has changed there. Before I launch into a tirade on how fake and corny Tom Brady is, suffice it to say the Patriots secondary matches up with the Buccaneers WRs better than any team in the league, despite being banged up at key positions, and no one knows Brady’s habits and tendencies more than Bill Belichick, so as long as the Patriots crowd can remember their place and who they’re cheering for the Patriots should be able to cover the seven points. However, unless we have a Benard Pollard moment Sunday night I don’t really see the Patriots winning. Oh, did I say that out loud???
Las Vegas Raiders 3-0 (+3) @ Los Angeles Chargers 2-1 (51.5): Chargers 27-23
Monday, 8:15 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Finally a MNF game worth watching. The Raiders are flying high on their first 3-0 start in 20 years, but they’ve needed OT twice to pull it off, while the Chargers are coming off a monumental win against the Kansas City Chiefs and could be 3-0 themselves if not for a three-point loss to the Dallas Cowboys on the foot of Greg Zuerlein as time expired. The Raiders have the top overall offense, which would make Al Davis proud, but the Chargers are the 10th-ranked total defense and can sling the ball through the air themselves (4th ranked passing game). If you’ve been paying attention these teams seem to be trending in different direction ever so slightly and we’re about to see that gap close in the AFC West.
Stay tuned for Tuesday's Gone: Week 4 #NFL Game Reviews coming Wednesday!
