2021 NFL SEASON
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Tuesday's Gone: Week 3 #NFL Game Reviews
Good luck at the window this season!
All-Pro RB Christian McCaffery has a new QB in Sam Darnold and suddenly the 5-11 Carolina Panthers of 2020 are the darlings of 2021.
Carolina Panthers 2-0 (-8) @ Houston Texans 1-1 (43): Panthers 24-20 Panthers 24-9
Thursday, 8:15 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Panthers have the weapons and a fresh start with Sam Darnold, who's off to his fastest start (584 passing yards & 3 TDs), while the Texans have a QB making his first NFL start in Davis Mills, their 3rd QB already this season after Tyrod Taylor landed on the IR last week. It's the season of overreaction and here we are anointing the Panthers as NFL champions because they haven't fallen flat on their face with a QB most had left for dead. When the NY Jets give up on you it's not a great sign, but it's yet another indication the Jets are clueless more so then of Darnold's inabilities. Having said that, these are still the Panthers that went 5-11 last season, so being more than a TD favorite against anyone on a short week is a stretch.
The Panthers lost CMC again to injury because apparently playing him the second most snaps in the league through two games wasn't the answer post-season-ending injury. Once CMC was gone Sam Darnold reverted to NY Jet ways, looking like garbage, but the Texans are so inept with their 3rd string QB and lack of a running game he somehow managed to outscore the Texans 17-3 in the 2nd half and there you have it.
Washington Football Team 1-1 (+7) @ Buffalo Bills 0-1 (45.5): Bills 28-20 Bills 43-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: Breezy; high 60s)
Keys: The Washington defense hasn’t quite been as advertised, despite being tied for 5th in the league with six sacks, but the Bills offense is in the same boat, despite scoring 35 points last week. The Bills should be able to shut down the rush and force the game in Tyler Heinicke’s hands, which plays right into the hands of the Bills 2nd-ranked pass defense, who also happen to have more sacks than the Football Team (8). This spread is more about the Bills defense than the offense and the Bills offense is about to start clicking.
Josh Allen activate. Enjoy the PFM sweep.
Chicago Bears 1-1 (+7.5) @ Cleveland Browns 1-1 (44.5): Browns 33-20 26-6 Browns 26-6
Sunday, 1:00 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)
Keys: Justin Fields cleaned up last week to mixed results, but these aren’t the Cincinnati Bengals. The Browns are banged up along the offensive line, and Jarvis Landry landed on the IR, but the Bears are banged up all over their defense, so any advantage the Bears might have had has disintegrated. The Browns should handle the rookie with ease, because even if Fields has a decent game he’s probably not scoring 30+ points against these Browns.
Oh, so that's why the Bears signed Andy Dalton.
Baltimore Ravens 1-1 (-8) @ Detroit Lions 0-2 (50.5): Ravens 35-21 Ravens 19-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: There’s no reason to doubt the Ravens on any level here against the Lions and there’s no reason to doubt the over because the Lions will probably score a few points on the Ravens through the air.
The Ravens looked like trash until Justin Tucker broke the NFL record with a 66-yard FG that bounced off the goalpost and went backwards as time expired to escape with a win against arguably the worst team in football.
Indianapolis Colts 0-2 (+5.5) @ Tennessee Titans 1-1 (48): Titans 28-21 Titans 25-19
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)
Keys: The Colts are one of only six winless teams in the league and they allow 120 rushing yards per game, which could be a problem against Derrick Henry and the Titans, who are averaging nearly 150 ypg on the ground. The Titans could just as easily be 0-2 themselves, and the Colts lost a close game to the mighty Los Angeles Rams, but with Wentz questionable at best, and nowhere near 100% even if he does play, the Titans could literally run all over the Colts.
The only thing about this game that matters is PFM swept it. Enjoy.
Los Angeles Chargers 1-1 (+7) @ Kansas City Chiefs 1-1 (54.5): Chiefs 34-24 Chargers 30-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Sunny; high 80s)
Keys: The Chiefs are pissed and both defenses are banged up at key spots, so the over is probably a lock and the Chargers don’t have the match ups to keep it within seven points.
This game, in which I got everything wrong, is hilariously sandwiched between two sweeps. So not only do I not feel bad for Patrick Mahomes suddenly looking human now that the tape is out, but FOH with that 0.5-point loss on the O/U.
New Orleans Saints 1-1 (+3) @ New England Patriots 1-1 (42.5): Patriots 21-20 Saints 28-13
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Clearing; low 70s)
Keys: Uh oh, Jameis Winston. This could be trouble for the Saints. The Patriots have one of the best secondaries in the NFL and Winston throws a lot of INTs. The Saints aren’t all QB, though, with one of the best defenses and running games in the NFL. The Saints have clearly played the tougher schedule, but the Patriots are home with their own great defense and running game against a mediocre QB, hence the three-point spread. This should be a quick, low-scoring defensive battle.
The Saints defense hit Mac Jones 11 times and picked him off three times and the Saints offense ran the ball 38 times and chewed up the clock on their way to a dominant victory on the road against a very good defense.
Atlanta Falcons 0-2 (+3.5) @ New York Giants 0-2 (47.5): Giants 27-24 Falcons 17-13
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)
Keys: I imagine the Giants will just hand the ball off to Saquon Barkley the entire game and hope for the best against a Falcons team that has given up and average of 40 ppg and over 127 rushing ypg.
The Falcons scored 10-unaswered 4th quarter points to get in the win column.
Cincinnati Bengals 1-1 (+3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 1-1 (43): Bengals 24-20 Bengals 24-10
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)
Keys: The Steelers are banged up everywhere in key spots, and the Bengals are looking to get back on track after giving the game the Chicago Bears last week. Look for Joe Borrow and the Bengals to take advantage of the absence of TJ Watt et al, while the Steelers offense struggles to score without Diontae Johnson or a decent running game and an old banged up Ben Roethlisberger.
Joe Burrow threw three TDs to redeem himself as the Pittsburgh Steelers
Arizona Cardinals 1-1 (-7.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 0-2 (51.5): Cardinals 31-21 Cardinals 31-19
Sunday, 1:00 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: Sunny; mid-80s)
Keys: Two college giants take the field Sunday, but this is the NFL, which stands for Not For Long if you get drafted #1 and keep throwing 1.25 INTs for every TD thrown. I’m being facetious, but Trevor Lawrence has to cut down on the TOs or the Jaguars have no shot in this game, or any game for that matter.
Jamal Agnew tied an NFL record with a 109-yard botched FG attempt for a TD, which only happened because the Cardinals attempted the longest FG in NFL history (68 yards).
New York Jets 0-2 (+10.5) @ Denver Broncos 1-0 (41.5): Broncos 24-13 Broncos 26-0
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Sunny; high 80s)
Keys: It’s not so much the travel west or the altitude that will do the Jets in Sunday as much their terrible team led by even more terrible play-calling. Both teams are hampered by some key nagging injuries, and strength of schedule through two games has been lopsided, but the Broncos are clearly the better team on both sides of the ball, especially running the ball and stopping the run, so the game will likely fall on the shoulders of Zack Wilson, which didn’t go so well last week. Combine this spread with this O/U and you have the Jets getting throttled unless the loss of Bradley Chubb is greater than anticipated.
The Broncos shut the Jets out and their way to hitting rookie Zack Wilson nine times, sacking him five, and PFM swept the game.
Miami Dolphins 1-1 (+3.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders 2-0 (44): Raiders 23-20 Raiders 31-28 OT
Sunday, 4:05PM, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Dolphins have already lost Tua Tagovailoa for at least six weeks to a rib injury, but the Raiders are dealing with their own attrition, hence Las Vegas giving only a point if you take the home field advantage out of the spread equation. I guess I could mean the sports books or the Raiders team there, but the spread and O/U are clear indicators of the issues both teams are already having because neither defense is exactly lights out and Jacoby Brissett is a fine replacement. Look for the Dolphins to run the ball and control the clock while Derek Carr continues to force the ball to Darren Waller with a lack of much of a running game Sunday. The Raiders are trying to start the season 3-0 for the first time in almost 20 years when they took Tony Dungy’s team and pretended it was Jon Gruden 1.0’s team.
The Raiders kicked the game-winning FG in OT after trading FGs the entire period and the Raiders have started the season 3-0 for the first in almost 20 years.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-0 (-1.5) @ Los Angeles Rams 2-0 (55.5): Rams 28-27 Rams 34-24
Sunday, 4:25 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Why is this game at 4:25 in the afternoon and not the game of the week at 8:20? You’re telling me Scott Hanson is going to keep switching to the Jets v. Broncos or the Dolphins v. Raiders the entire time these teams are playing or will they be in the Red Zone so much it won’t matter? Catch Scott Hanson on the Red Zone channel from 1-8 pm on Sundays and spare yourself the bombardment of commercialism every 90 seconds. Make my checks out to Pro Football Media, Scott. Suffice it to say this is the only game week 3 between two undefeated teams and the game features the NFL’s best in perennial MVP and DPoY candidates Tom Brady and Aaron Donald, respectively. If you’re looking for a bold prediction all I got is Donald will try to break both of Brady’s ankles too, so I hope Tom has plenty of his TB12 water on the sidelines to combat any broken bones. Bottom line: The Buccaneers haven’t seen a team like this yet and they aren’t playing with a full deck anyway.
The Rams were doubling up the reigning Super Bowl Champions midway through the 4th quarter on the arm of Matt Stafford, who threw 4 TDs relative to Tom Brady's one.
Seattle Seahawks 1-1 (-2) @ Minnesota Vikings 1-1 (55): Seahawks 27-24 Vikings 30-17
Sunday, 4:25 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: These two teams were known for defense not long ago, but now both combine to yield over 900 yards per game. The Vikings thought they had revamped theirs, but such is not the case through two games and now they face a Seattle team averaging nearly 30 ppg. Neither QB has thrown an INT yet, so they’re due, and the Vikings could be without All-Pro RB Dalvin Cook, whose nagging injuries are one of the reasons the Vikings are 0-2, but not nearly as much as the Vikings defense giving up 30 ppg in a year when they were supposed to return to form.
The Seahawks led 17-7 well into the 2nd quarter, but then the Vikings returned the favor and went on a 20-7 run to salvage the early season.
Green Bay Packers 1-1 (+3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers 2-0 (50): Packers 27-24 Packers 30-28
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Clear; mid-60s)
Keys: The game plan seems pretty simple: Run against a weak Packers rush defense and keep the ball out of Aaron Rodgers hands as he returns to his home state to bask in what is known outside of Green Bay as warm temperatures and the Sun. The 49ers have lost all of their RBs, though, which complicates that game plan, hence Vegas and the public largely thinking these are two evenly-matched teams. The Packers have an interesting break-but-don’t-bend defense, giving up less than 340 ypg (10th) but allowing nearly 28 ppg (23rd) so maybe they’ll try the same approach the 49ers would have tried at full strength: Run the ball, kill the clock and keep the ball out of the hands of Jimmy G and the suddenly one-dimensional 49ers, assuming Kyle Shanahan doesn’t pull one of his dad’s move and go get a dude from the local grocery store to rush for 150 yards and two TDs.
The 49ers thought they had the game wrapped up, but then Aaron Rodgers did Aaron Rodgers things and brought the Packers within FG range to help steal the game from San Francisco.
Philadelphia Eagles 1-1 (+3.5) @ Dallas Cowboys 1-1 (51.5): Eagles 24-23 Cowboys 41-21
Monday, 8:15 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Cowboys are already stacking injuries on the offensive line and the Eagles are the 4th-ranked overall defense and they haven’t even been getting after the QB. That could change Sunday as Dak Prescott will likely be on the run most of the game unless they hand the ball off to Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard all day, because that’s the one area the Eagles don’t dominate on defense. The Eagles haven’t given the ball up once all season, but the Cowboys lead the league in takeaways so whoever wins that battle likely wins the game in one of the most unpredictable divisions in the NFL.
Jalen Hurts said it best: "You don't look at a turd, you flush it."
Stay tuned for Week 4 #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) TNF coming Thursday!
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.