2021 NFL SEASON
Good luck at the window this season!
Dallas Cowboys (+8.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (51.5): Buccaneers 34-26 Buccaneers 31-29
Thursday, 8:20 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: 30% storms; low 80s)
Keys: The alien known as Tom Brady and the reigning Super Bowl champion Buccaneers host the Dallas Cowboys to kick off the 2021 NFL season and unfortunately not much has changed since last season, despite the majority of us being vaccinated. Oh, you thought I meant nothing has changed with these two teams? Well, that, too. The Buccaneers are the first team in NFL history to bring back all of their starters from a Super Bowl-winning team; as for the Cowboys, it’s the same old story. Dak Prescott, coming off an injury, and Ezekiel Elliot, who’s coming off his worst season in the NFL, will be without All-Pro guard Zack Martin yet again, so perhaps we shouldn’t expect many fireworks from this Dallas offense against one of the best defenses in the league, despite all the Cowboys talent at wide out. There’s a reason the Buccaneers are getting more than a TD against a team as talented as Dallas, but any team getting more than a TD against another talented team is a stretch, even for a hosting reigning NFL champion. Prescott could fall flat on his face finding a rhythm returning from a devastating injury without Martin, but at the very least these teams should cruise to the over at 51.5, because the entire Cowboys team would have to fall flat on their faces to not score enough to help Tampa Bay hit the over.
Dak Prescott (4 TDs on 403 yards passing) almost pulled it off, but the most insufferable athlete since MJ got the last word by driving Tampa Bay down the field in under 90 seconds to hit the game-winning FG with two seconds left.
Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5) @ Atlanta Falcons (48.5): Falcons 27-24 Eagles 32-6
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Carson Wentz is on to bluer pastures and Matt Ryan lost the best WR he’s ever played with in Julio Jones so these teams won’t exactly look like the Eagles and Falcons we’re used to, although Eagles fans are used to being without Wentz. Ryan has a new weapon in rookie Kyle Pitts in addition to Calvin Ridley, so maybe the loss of Jones doesn’t hurt quite as much. The Eagles have a new weapon themselves in WR DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia's 17th pick out of Alabama, so perhaps the loss of Wentz doesn’t quite as much, either, after seeing what Jalen Hurts was capable of in 2020. The bottom line is the teams are equally bad with the Falcons strength (passing) being matched by the Eagles strength (pass rush/front seven) so the edge goes to the home team week 1.
The Eagles pressured Matt Ryan the Falcons all day, while Jalen Hurts tossed three TDs. There are going to be many games like this week 1 for Pro Football Media. We broke records...for how poorly we did.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+6.5) @ Buffalo Bills (48): Bills 34-24 Steelers 23-16
Sunday, 1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: 50% rain; high 70s)
Keys: The Buffalo Bills return ready to dominate the AFC again while the Pittsburgh Steelers are a shell of their former selves. The Steelers drafted Najee Harris, but lost LB Bud Dupree, which could have disastrous effects for their defense, especially newly minted billionaire TJ Watt.
The Bills played like a Cole Beasely vaccine take.
Minnesota Vikings (-3) v. Cincinnati Bengals (47.5): Vikings 30-24 Bengals 27-24 OT
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Sunny; low 90s)
Keys: The Vikings beefed up their defense with the additions of Davlin Thompson and Patrick Peterson, and look back to peak form, while the Bengals might have lost a defensive step with the loss of DE Carl Lawson. These young Bengals have talent on offense, but the Vikings are pretty stacked on both sides of the ball.
After the Vikings hit the game-tying FG to send the game to OT the Bengals returned the favor and hit the game-winning FG as OT expired.
Detroit Lions (+8.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (45.5): 49ers 27-17 49ers 41-33
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)
Keys: The question on everyone’s mind is how long the 49ers go with Jimmy Garappolo over rookie Trey Lance, but I’m not sure we’re going to get the answer from the lowly Lions and their new QB Jared Goff, who’s Jared Kushner-level body language and enthusiasm matches the Lions M.O. perfectly.
Nothing like missing out on a spread by a half a point on a week when you’re getting your teeth kicked in.
Tennessee Titans (-3) @ Arizona Cardinals (53.5): Titans 33-31 Cardinals 38-13
Sunday, 1:00 PM, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Titans lost and all-time coach on the offensive side in Arthur Smith, but gained one of the best LBs in the league in Bud Durpree. The Cardinals gained a former best in JJ Watt, but lost Patrick Peterson, the heart of this teams for the past decade. Transcontinental games at 1 PM on the west coast don’t matter much week 1 and the Titans are simply the better team.
Kyler Murray was responsible for five TDs (4 passing; 1 running) and Chandler Jones sacked Ryan Tannehill five times and another titan from the 2020 season falls victim opening week.
Indianapolis Colts (+3) @ Seattle Seahawks (49): Colts 27-23 Seahawks 28-16
Sunday, 1:00 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: 40% rain; mid-60s)
Keys: The Colts just keep getting chances with first round draft pick and future HoF QBs since the loss of Peyton Manning many moons ago. First they drafted Andrew Luck after the departure of Manning, which most deemed a miracle at the time. When that didn’t work out they landed Philip Rivers. When Rivers got too old they capitalized on Philadelphia’s panic attack and sign former superstar, but oft-injured, Carson Wentz. The Seahawks are the same old team with the same expectations. Look for the rain to favor the Colts running game and defense, which could be trouble for the host Seahawks and their young offensive line, because the 12th Man isn’t as strong as he used to be.
Russell Wilson (4 TDs) did Russell Wilson things and Carson Wentz didn’t do Russell Wilson things.
Washington FT (-1.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers (44.5): Football Team 24-23 Chargers 20-16
Sunday, 1:00 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Football Team signed Ryan Fitzpatrick, who fell off everyone's radar last year, which can only mean one thing: The Harvard QB will throw for 545 yards and six TDs against the Chargers. Then again, the record breaking Justin Herbert is capable of the same thing. In all seriousness, both of these teams have two of the best defensive lines in the NFL, but Washington has one of the best overall defenses. Even if the Chargers offensive line can hold off Chase Young et al they could still struggle if Austin Ekeler (Q) can’t go.
Well Austin Ekeler went, Washington lost Ryan Fitzpatrick immediately and the vaunted Football Team only recorded two sacks.
New York Jets (+4) @ Carolina Panthers (44.5): Panthers 24-21 Panthers 19-14
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Sunny; high 80s)
Keys: The NFL rarely misses and here they are pitting the team that just gave up on Sam Darnold for rookie Zach Wilson against the team that just picked Darnold off the scrap heap because they’ve given up on their own recent rookie QB plans.
Finally, a win. Well, the money line anyway.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) @ Houston Texans (45.5): Jaguars 27-20 Texans 37-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: What a weird situation for the Texans: They get to watch the Jaguars ring in a new era with a rookie coach (Urban Meyer) and QB (1st overall pick Trevor Lawrence) while their franchise QB Deshaun Watson is embroiled in 22 sexual assault lawsuits and isn’t even playing. Lucky for Houston they signed Tyrod Taylor to stop the bleeding, but the lowly Jaguars are favored on the road week 1 for the first time in what seems like decades for a reason.
I guess the Texans circled the wagons opening week or maybe a college coach and a dude who looks like a painting of 12th century squire isn’t quite the answer...yet.
Cleveland Browns (+5.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (54.5): Browns 33-31 Chiefs 33-29
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Sunny; low 90s)
Keys: Perhaps the game of the week, suffice it to say I’m all over the points here. Both teams are loaded with talent and both teams have replaced departed key personnel with equal talent. Kansas City is a slightly better team with slighter edges in coaching and discipline, but the Browns are right there with an even better defense. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Browns won, let alone covered.
The Browns had the Chiefs on the ropes 29-20 with 10:24 to go in the 4th quarter, but the Chiefs scored 14 seconds later and the rest is history.
Miami Dolphins (+3) @ New England Patriots (43.5): Patriots 24-20 Dolphins 17-16
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Partly Sunny; high 70s)
Keys: The Patriots begin the Mac Jones era against the team that started their Tua Tagovailoa era last year. It’s raining Alabama QBs. The Patriots are a lot better than people realize, and despite the Dolphins recent gains and drafting Tua’s 2018-2019 Alabama teammate WR Jaylen Waddle, New England’s defense and running game at home against a recharged Patriots crowd is going to be tough to overcome for this young Miami team.
The Mac Jones era didn’t go according to plan, but it wasn’t Jones’ fault. It was the two fumbles, both by running backs, who could be parking cars by next Sunday if Bill has anything to say about it.
New Orleans Saints (+3.5) @ Green Bay Packers (50): Packers 27-24 Saints 38-3
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: 30% rain; low 70s)
Keys: These aren’t your older brother’s Saints anymore. With the retirement of Drew Brees the Saints have gone from a passing powerhouse with no defense to a very good running team with a very good defense. The Packers are singing a similar swan song that Drew Brees and Michael Thomas just sang the last two years with Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams likely in their last team with the team. That’s a story for another day, however, but for now these Packers outdoors in the rain are slight edge over this new look Saints team.
I think the Marlboro Man is trying to sabotage the Packers.
New York Giants (+3) @ Denver Broncos (41.5): Broncos 23-20 Broncos 27-13
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Chance t-storms; mid-80s)
Keys: This is a battle between two of the better defenses in the NFL, believe it or not, but with no offenses to match, save a good Denver running game. Look for a low-scoring affair in which the Broncos largely control on both sides of the ball, but 41.5 points is pretty low by today’s NFL standards so I’d be careful.
Melvin Gordon III (101 rushing yards; 9.2 ypg; 1 TD) was the difference against a good Giants defense, keeping them honest enough to allow Teddy Bridgewater to throw two TD passes.
Chicago Bears (+7.5) @ Los Angeles Rams (46.5): Rams 30-20 Rams 34-14
Sunday, 4:25 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: It seems like half of the league is ushering in a new era including present company. The Bears drafted another first round QB in 2021, but this time it was someone we’ve all heard of in Justin Fields. The Rams finally ditched their first round QB from a few years ago in Jared Goff for Matthew Stafford, who seems like he was drafted in the first round 30 years ago. Both teams lost secondary guys that will hurt (CHI- Kyle Fuller; LAR – John Johnson), but the Bears loss hurts more. The Rams should cover easily in this week 1 home opener.
The Matthew Stafford (3 TDs) era in LA has begun, but apparently the Justin Fields era hasn’t begun in Chicago. Only the Bears would trot out Andy Dalton after drafting Fields in the 1st round. Then again, they waited a whole month with Mitchell, so...
Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders (50.5): Ravens 27-21 Raiders 33-27 OT
Monday, 8:20 PM, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: To still be favored by four or more points on the road after recently losing two of your better players to season-ending injuries (RB Gus Edwards; DB Marcus Peters) is all one needs to know about this game. The only question is how long it’ll take Mark Davis to regret the 10-year $100 million contract he gave Jon Gruden.
Jon Gruden tried to mess it up, but alas, no matter how many times Derek Carr tried to force it to Darren Waller in triple coverage, the Baltimore Lamar Jacksons turned the ball over twice and squandered two 14-point leads, supposedly the first time in John Harbaugh’s career, although me thinks the New England Patriots might’ve handed Harbaugh such a loss earlier in his career. Regardless, the Ravens didn’t deserve to win, despite kicking the go-ahead FG with 37 seconds in the 4th quarter.
Stay tuned for Week 2: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) THURSDAY NIGHT EDITION coming Thursday!
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