2021 NFL SEASON
Week 12: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
SUNDAY EDITION
Good luck at the window this season!
Chicago Bears 3-7 (-3) @ Detroit Lions 0-9-1 (41.5): Bears 17-13
Thanksgiving Day, 12:30 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Does it get much worse than CHI@DET to start the awkward holiday when we celebrate squatting in someone’s house after killing their whole family and pretending it’s about our family? Tigers, oh my, it does get worse, because Bears QB Justin Fields is doubtful and Lions QB Jared Goff is questionable, which means we’re likely looking at two back-up QBs playing in an already terrible game. There’s a reason this game occurs while you’re carving the turkey or answering the doorbell. Take the under because all these teams are going to do is run the ball (CHI: 3rd; DET: 16th) and neither of them score any points (CHI: 29th; DET: 30th).
Las Vegas Raiders 5-5 (+8) @ Dallas Cowboys 7-3 (50.5): Cowboys 27-21
Thanksgiving Day, 4:30 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Cowboys could be in some trouble. Not Thursday, per se, but the Dallas defense, which has played well at times and has taken a lot of pressure off of their dynamic offense, is hobbled and has seen their pass rush hampered by injuries along the defensive front. The offense is struggling, too, with injuries to their two top WRs (Amari Cooper & CeeDee Lamb) in addition to the nagging injuries the offensive line and MVP candidate Dak Prescott have been dealing with all season. Such is life in the NFL one could argue, and we certainly shouldn’t expect any sympathy from the saddest case in the NFL in the Las Vegas Raiders, who once stood at 3-1 before controversy ensued and their season started falling apart. History and circumstance is on the Cowboys side here, but eight points is a lot to cover for a team that’s going to have trouble scoring.
Buffalo Bills 6-4 (-6) @ New Orleans Saints 5-5 (45.5): Bills 27-20
Thanksgiving Day, 8:20 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: A few weeks ago many people had these two teams penciled in for Super Bowl LVI, and the reason people weren’t using pen was because of Jameis Winston. Isn’t it interesting the Saints started falling off a cliff from the second Winston was injured so cheaply by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who obviously feared the man. The Saints still have the defense (3rd v. run; 10th overall/scoring), for what it’s worth, but the offense is no longer capable of consistently scoring points with a back-up QB and an injured Alvin Kamara, which is obviously a problem against the Bills. As far as Buffalo is concerned, what’s there to talk about? They just lost control of the AFC East after holding a commanding early lead, the defense has played terrible during stretches of their current slide (2-3 in their last five games) and the offense has played even worse at times. Buffalo is well-coached, despite the recent screams from #BillsMafia, and loaded with talent. This five game stretch is likely just what a team with Super Bowl aspirations needs, and a Saints team that has lost three straight games is just the team Buffalo needs to face.
Pittsburgh Steelers 5-4-1 (+4.5) v. Cincinnati Bengals 6-4 (45): Bengals 26-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Partly cloudy; low 40s)
Keys: The Steelers are kind of frauds at 5-4-1, that glaring tie coming at the hands of the still winless Detroit Lions in OT, and the four straight wins before their latest hiccup came at the hands of the Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks (OT), Cleveland Browns and Chicago Bears. Injuries at key places are part of the problem as with most NFL teams, and to be honest, no one expected much from Pittsburgh anyway. The trouble with the Bengals is you never who, if anyone, is going to show up. The Steelers don’t have the firepower to hang with the Bengals offensively, but QB Joe Burrows is capable of gifting the opposition the ball, which is a recipe for disaster against any opponent. Cincinnati ranks 6th in INTs, 6th v. the run, 7th in sacks and 8th scoring defense so as long as they keep the TOs (-3 TO differential) at bay relative the Steelers (-2 TO differential) Pittsburgh can’t score enough points to keep pace with the Bengals at home.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-3 (-3) @ Indianapolis Colts 6-5 (51.5): Colts 28-27
Sunday, 1:00PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather Indoors)
Keys: I would not want to play the Colts right now, especially if I were Tampa Bay and sporting a 1-2 record in my last three games while the Colts have rattled off a 6-2 record in their last eight games with those two losses coming in OT to division leaders Baltimore Ravens and the Tennessee Titans. Jonathan Taylor has dominated the ground for the Colts to the point where he’s entered the MVP conversation, a feat for any RB in the 21st century, and opened up the game for Carson Wentz, who has been lights out. The problem is the Buccaneers are the top run defense, although they’ll be tested Sunday. The Buccaneers aren’t floundering because Tom Brady just found out he’s 44 – quite the opposite for the likely leading MVP candidate. No, it attrition like it is for so many other talented teams in the league, but the Colts are relatively healthy. I like the Colts to not only cover here, but win. The Buccaneers are simply too banged up and on the road against a team who would be the hottest in the NFL if not for Brady’s old team, the New England Patriots.
Carolina Panthers 5-6 (-1.5) @ Miami Dolphins 4-7 (42): Panthers 24-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: Sunny; high 70s)
Keys: The Dolphins are going for four straight wins Sunday and will face a pesky Panthers team looking to get back on track and keep their playoff hopes alive (9th in the NFC). The Dolphins (13th v. run) will stuff the box and try to stop Carolina’s sometimes-potent run attack and also blitz the living hell out of Cam Newton when he does attempt to pass it, but the Dolphins could have trouble scoring on the Panthers at all, because even in their three-game winning streak against poor-to-mediocre defenses they only averaged 21 ppg, but this once strong Panthers defense has been inconsistent of late and has all sorts of problems in the secondary, not that Tua Tagovailoa has anyone to throw it to to exploit that (William Fuller V & DeVante Parker IR).
Tennessee Titans 8-3 (+6.5) @ New England Patriots 7-4 (44.5): Patriots 27-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Partly Sunny; high 30s)
Keys: This spread tells you everything you need to know about where these two teams are trending. The Titans just released Adrian Peterson after an attempt to stop the bleeding caused by Derrick Henry’s absence and may have signed Golden Tate to get someone Ryan Tannehill can throw to after losing AJ Brown and Julio Jones for most of the season so far. Tennessee still controls the AFC, but the wheels are falling off after a loss to the then 1-8 Houston Texans. The Patriots seem be spinning straw into gold week-to-week with their offense, getting contributions from everyone and scoring points at a league-leading pace, all the while being led by the rookie-going-on-20-year-veteran in Mac Jones, but the defense is the bread and butter of this team and without any weapons the Titans are sitting ducks. Look for the Patriots to take advantage of a depleted Titans team, securing the tie-breaker and helping make their case for the AFC when the time comes.
Philadelphia Eagles 5-6 (-3.5) @ New York Giants 3-7 (46): Eagles 30-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: 20% wintry mix; low 40s)
Keys: The surging Eagles can ill afford to lose all their momentum by losing to the Giants, which isn’t much of an analysis, but it’s true. The Giants are again decimated on offense and have fallen off defensively, while the Eagles, in a similar boat on defense, are the 2nd ranked rushing team and the 8th scoring offense. Look for the Eagles to control the game on the ground and wilt the clock away on their way tom making the Dallas Cowboys more nervous by the week.
Atlanta Falcons 4-6 (-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 2-8 (46.5): Jaguars 23-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: Partly Sunny; high 60s)
Keys: Both of these teams possess point differentials of 10+ ppg (ATL: 11 ppg; JAX: 10.3 ppg), neither averages over 18 ppg and both teams rank at the bottom of the league in TO differential (ATL: 30th;JAX 31st), which all point to one thing: This is the worst game of Week 12. The Falcons are the better and more experienced team and have the right kicker to kick that game-winning 4th-quarter FG, but the Falcons have been outscored 68-3 in their two straight losses. The Jaguars have only been outscored 57-23 in their two-game losing streak and will be at home looking to take advantage and pounce on the wounded Falcons.
New York Jets 2-8 (+2.5) @ Houston Texans 2-8 (44.5): Texans 24-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Wait, did I say the ATL@JAX was the worst game of the week? I forgot about this monstrosity. These two teams have fewer combined wins and even worse point differentials (HOU: 12.1 ppg; NYJ: 14.2 ppg), and, like ATL@JAX, neither team even averages 18 ppg. The Texans caught the Tennessee Titans sleeping last week and will look to ride that momentum at home against one of the few teams in the NFL worse than they are.
Los Angeles Chargers 6-4 (-2.5) @ Denver Broncos 5-5 (47.5): Chargers 27-24
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Partly Sunny; high 60s)
Keys: The Chargers could struggle to stop the Broncos run game, while the Broncos have the 10th ranked passing defense and allow the 3rd-lowest passer rating (83.1), which is good because the Chargers have the 3rd ranked passing game and the 10th overall total offense, which is largely a product of their passing game. Justin Herbert is having another stellar season (23 tTDs; 8 INTs), but the Chargers offensive line gives up the 5th most sacks in the league, not that the Broncos sack the QB much (15th).
Los Angeles Rams 7-3 (+1) @ Green Bay Packers 8-3 (47.5): Packers 27-24
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Mostly sunny; low 30s)
Keys: The Rams can’t lose their third game in a row, can they? They can’t afford to, but they will because the beach boys will be playing in 30-degree temps and no one on this team is equipped for that. The Packers are looking to get back on track after last week’s close divisional loss and the Rams have entered OBJ territory and it doesn’t matter what the new team or teammate(s) say, eventually bad chemistry precipitates and it may have already between the Matthew Stafford and OBJ. The Packers defense remains strong, while the Rams defense has regressed some, but both teams get after the QB and neither team protects the QB well, so it’ll depend on which QB makes better decisions and throws on the run and I think we all know the answer to that. The Green Bay Packers can’t afford to lose the tie-breaker to the Rams in the NFC in a packed conference and the Rams aren’t the same team since their star-studded additions, so look for the home team to take care of business, which as far as this spread is concerned just means the Packers have to win.
Minnesota Vikings 5-5 (+3) @ San Francisco 49ers 5-5 (46): 49ers 28-23
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Sunny; mid-70s)
Keys: Both teams are 3-2 in their last five games and both team’s two losses have come to division leading teams or the Indianapolis Colts. Something has clicked in San Francisco, but there may be no team in the NFL with more talent that plays as inconsistently as the Vikings. The key match-up here is Minnesota’s 8th ranked passing game v. the 49ers 3rd ranked passing defense, which will inevitably be set up by the Vikings 11th ranked rushing offense, because the 49ers struggle with that, although not in their last two wins (53 rypg allowed); like I said, something has clicked. The way the pattern of wins and losses has panned out this year for Minnesota the pattern points to the Vikings losing and I’m not kidding.
Cleveland Browns 6-5 (+3.5) @ Baltimore Ravens 7-3 (46): Ravens 26-24
Sunday, 8:20 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Clearing; low 40s)
Keys: Sunday begins the first of two games in a row against the Ravens for the Browns (with a bye week in between) and if they can somehow win both they would control the AFC North three weeks from now. Seems simple enough, beating the Ravens twice in a row with a bye in between, especially with the Ravens banged up secondary, but these games will be won on the ground. The Browns are the top rushing team in the league and the Ravens are right behind them at 3rd, although the Ravens leading rusher is also their starting QB, which is the least sustainable thing imaginable in the NFL no matter how talented Lamar Jackson is. The Ravens (2nd) and the Browns (8th) are actually two of the best run defenses in the league, too, so it’s more about which team cracks and succumbs to the play action first. Cleveland is also 4th in the league in sacks and have two of the best edge rushers in the league in Jadeveon Clowney and Myles Garrett, so containing Jackson and forcing him to the middle might be easier for the Browns than most teams. Since losing in historic fashion to the Cincinnati Bengals Week 8 the Ravens needed OT to beat the Minnesota Vikings, lost to the Washington Football Team and barely beat the Chicago Bears, but they’re 4-1 at home this year. I’m not sure who wins here, but I like Cleveland covering the 3.5 points.
Seattle Seahawks 3-7 (+1) @ Washington Football Team 4-6 (46.5): Football Team 24-21
Monday, 8:15 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather: Cloudy; high 30s)
Keys: These are the kind of games that remind one of flex scheduling. Why are we being subjected to this game on MNF? The Football Team has gone from laughing stocks to formidable foes under Tyler Heinicke, while the Seahawks have been on the steady decline since Seattle decided to throw the ball in stead of handing it off to Marshawn Lynch. Since then the playoff appearances have dwindled, the defense has been dismantled and the Seahawks have never found a running game to replace Lynch while consistently catered to Russell Wilson to with no real success to show for it. Think about: When’s the last time you saw the Seahawks as one-point underdogs at home, especially against a team with a losing record? Exactly.
Stay tuned for PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA TUESDAY'S GONE: Week 12 #NFL Game Reviews coming Wednesday!
