2021 NFL SEASON
Week 11: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
SUNDAY EDITION
Good luck at the window this season!
New England Patriots 6-4 (-6.5) @ Atlanta Falcons 4-5 (47): Patriots 28-20
Thursday, 8:15 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The opening spread and money line were NE -4 at +105, respectively, which doesn't make much sense to me, either analytically or mathematically, but I'm just a guy who makes picks. I guess it makes sense from the standpoint that at -4 the handicappers are saying the Patriots are one-point underdogs after considering the setting at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, but wouldn't that mean the Patriots would be -105? I digress, because the spread (NE -6.5) and ML (NE -290) are both nowhere near their opening numbers and finally accurate, at least for the ML . 6.5-points seems high for a rookie QB on the road on a short week, but is it though? The Patriots have been running all over opponents and the Falcons rank 21st v. the run. One could argue that has nothing to do with rookie QB Mac Jones, but what does is the Falcons 2nd highest QB rating allowed to opposing QBs (106.5) or the fact they rank last in sacks. It also doesn't hurt Jones or the Patriots that Atlanta ranks 26th in TO ratio (NE ranks 7th) primarily because they don't force TOs. It's all about intangibles Thursday night says my good friend, let's call him Mike, and he's right - there may be no hotter team than the New England Patriots right now while the Falcons are still licking the wounds from their 43-3 loss to the Dallas Cowboys Sunday. These are two teams trending in the opposite direction so take the Patriots with confidence, but don't come screaming to me if they only win by six.
Indianapolis Colts 5-5 (+7) @ Buffalo Bills 6-3 (50): Bills 27-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: 60% rain; high 40s)
Keys: Carson Wentz is quietly having a good season, despite the early struggles, Jonathan Taylor is breaking away as one of the league’s best RBs and the Colts have climbed back into the conversation after the Tennessee Titans lost Derrick Henry for the season. The Bills have been slipping of late and now find themselves mere percentage points ahead of the New England Patriots in the AFC East, actually a fraction of one percentage point (0.30), after holding a several game lead just a few weeks ago. So what? So there’s no margin for error against a team trending in the right direction, and the weather shouldn’t be a problem for a ground team led by an outdoor QB. One might turn to TOs in a game like this, except these teams rank 1st (BUF) and 2nd (IND), respectively, in TO differential. The Bills can’t afford to lose, and are home, which should be enough to motivate the Bills to win against a Colts team no longer considered a doormat.
Baltimore Ravens 6-3 (-5) @ Chicago Bears 3-6 (44.5): Ravens 27-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: 30% rain; high 40s)
Keys: The Ravens travel to Chicago following an embarrassing loss to the Miami Dolphins to face the team that thinks they drafted their own Lamar Jackson in Justin Fields, but there’s no sign of that so far. The Bears are one of the worst offenses in the NFL, and the defense, which has shown flashes, isn’t much better statistically than the Ravens, who are having a down year on the defensive side of the ball.
Detroit Lions 0-8-1 (+11.5) @ Cleveland Browns 5-5 (43.5): Browns 24-17
Sunday, 1;00 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: 90% rain; high 40s)
Keys: All this talk of the Lions improving is hilarious because they just tied a terrible Pittsburgh Steelers team without Ben Roethlisberger, two of their three top WRs or TJ Watt. The Browns got destroyed by the New England Patriots, but who hasn’t lately? The Browns defense suddenly comes to life against inferior offenses, so look for more of the same Sunday in the pouring rain as Baker Mayfield tries to get right and keep the Browns competitive in a crowded AFC North.
Houston Texans 1-8 (+10) @ Tennessee Titans 8-2 (44.5): Titans 28-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: 60% rain; low 60s)
Keys: The Titans keep winning despite having no weapons (Derrick Hnery & Julio Jones – IR; AJ Brown – Q), which is a testament to Ryan Tannehill and a stellar pass rush (5th sacks) and run defense (7th), which sets up takeaways (9th), which come mostly in the form of INTs (9th) at the hands of one of the better secondaries in the league.
Green Bay Packers 8-2 (-1.5) @ Minnesota Vikings 4-5 (47): Packers 27-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Vikings might be the hardest team to analyze in the NFL mostly due to their high level of talent in concert with some of the worst inconsistency in the league. The Packers are the opposite, with a sound defense and running game to compliment two of the best at their respective positions in Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams, although the former has been embroiled in covid vaccine controversy, but it seems he may have just passed the baton to Antonio Brown, so he might be back out of the woke forest and seeing the game again for the trees.
Miami Dolphins 3-7 (-3) @ New York Jets 2-7 (44.5): Dolphins 23-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: 40% rain; high 50s)
Keys: The Dolphins have won two straight games, including a win v. the Baltimore Ravens, by simply blitzing the living hell out of their opponents, which begs the question: Will they even need this scheme against the Jets? The answer is no.
New Orleans Saints 5-4 (+2) @ Philadelphia Eagles 4-6 (43.5): Eagles 24-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Cloudy; high 50s)
Keys: The Saints are slipping away without Jameis Winston and a healthy Alvin Kamara, despite the play of their suffocating defense, while the Eagles just won’t go away. The Saints will try to shut down the Eagles run game and force the game into Jalen Hurts hands, who has 13 passing TDs to only 5 INTs while leading the team in rushing yards and rushing TDs (5). When you consider the Eagles defense it’s actually hard to figure why they don’t have more wins.
Washington Football Team 3-6 (+3.5) @ Carolina Panthers 5-5 (43): Panthers 24-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Cloudy; high 50s)
Keys: Cam Newton returns as the Panthers starter, against his old coach in Ron Rivera, to boot, which has to conjure mixed feelings among Panthers fans. On one hand the Panthers went to a Super Bowl with MVP Cam Newton, their franchise QB for almost a decade. On the other hand the Panthers had moved on from Cam and thought they had developed a new identity with CMC and a new shut down defense to go along with their new franchise leader in Sam Darnold. Welp. The Football Team shocked the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the betting world last week, but even a stopped clock is right twice a day and there’s a reason Tyler Heinicke is a 3.5-point underdog to the floundering Panthers.
San Francisco 49ers 4-5 (-6.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 2-7 (45): 49ers 27-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)
Keys: The 49ers, finally relatively healthy again, have entered the ring as spoilers and have already been delivering blows. The Jaguars have nothing to be spoiled, but they have been playing better week to week, winners of two of their last four games after starting the season 0-5. Both these teams turn the ball over a lot, which could be the key to the game, but until the Jaguars can show consistency on offense and score points there’s not much hope for these Jaguars.
Cincinnati Bengals 5-4 (-1) @ Las Vegas Raiders 5-4 (50.5): Bengals 27-24
Sunday, 4:05PM, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: What an aggravating game for fans of these teams, which both had serious playoff aspirations only a few weeks ago. What a difference a few weeks makes. After hurdling the Jon Gruden debacle the Raiders then suffered the horrific tragedy involving rookie sensation Henry Ruggs III. The Bengals haven’t suffered any such fate, they just turned into the Bengals again after their once dominant defense started to give up points and their dynamic offense stopped scoring them. The weird thing is both of these team’s two-game slides started at MetLife Stadium (CIN lost to NYJ; LV lost to NYG) and both teams were last seen losing by nearly identical lopsided scores (CIN: 41-16 loss to CLE; LV: 41-14 loss to KC). One of the Bengals main issues is TOs (22nd), specifically INTs (28th), which could be the key to this close game, but lucky for the Bengals the Raiders rank 27th in INTs. There’s a reason this game has a one-point spread. This game is basically a PK and I’m giving the nod to the rested team.
Dallas Cowboys 7-2 (+2.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs 6-4 (56): Chiefs 31-30
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Clear; high 50s)
Keys: Everyone knows about these electric, dynamic offenses that both average more than 400 total yards and over 300 ypg in the air, the Cowboys averaging over 31 ppg in the process, but what about the defenses? The Cowboys have a surprisingly good defense (10th scoring), led surprisingly by Rookie of the Year candidate (and even DPoY) LB in Micah Parsons, but they’ll be missing some key pass rushers (DeMarcus Lawrence & Randy Gregory IR). The Chiefs defense has been their Achilles Heal in a way, but all of a sudden Kansas City is only allowing only 15.6 ppg over their last five games (4-1) after allowing 32.6 ppg over their first five games (2-3). Something has clicked, perhaps getting rid of a certain unathletic someone, but it’s a welcome trend because Patrick Mahomes is just starting to get out of his funk. In fact, after last week’s big win the Chiefs Super Bowl win odds dropped from +1400 to +900 in a few days. The significant loss of pass rush on the Cowboys defensive front plays right into Kansas City’s hands, but they haven’t played an offense as skilled and dynamic or a team as good on both sides of the ball as Dallas since they played Buffalo Week 5 and we all know how that ended. Both teams are 4-1 in their last five games and Dallas comes into Kansas City the closest underdog since Mahomes became the starter in 2018, so it comes down to whether or not the Chiefs can contain the Cowboys offense on any level.
Arizona Cardinals 8-2 (-2) @ Seattle Seahawks 3-6 (48): Cardinals 24-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: Mostly cloudy; mid-40s)
Keys: I’ve been burned once and got lucky once the past two weeks assuming Kyler Murray and hoping DeAndre Hopkins would play after being designated “game time” decisions by head coach Cliff Kingsbury, only to see them sit, and he we are again, except this time Hopkins has already been axed. The Cardinals proved last week they’re not invincible without their two offensive stars, and Russell Wilson will have knocked off some more rust by Sunday, but the Seahawks look awful and so does Wilson if we’re being honest, who likely came back too soon from the surgery everyone was praising him for coming back so soon from. We haven't even mentioned the Cardinals dominant defense (2nd FUM; 4th takeaways; 5th overall; 5th scoring; 5th 3rd down %; 9th sacks; 9th QBR).
Pittsburgh Steelers 5-3-1 (+6) @ Los Angeles Chargers 5-4 (47): Chargers 24-21
Sunday, 8:20 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Steelers will be without Ben Roethlisberger again Sunday night and we all saw how the Mason Rudolph show went against the Detroit Lions. Justin Herbert will be looking to bounce back after the roughest stretch of his young career, at least QBR-wise, and he might not have to worry about TJ Watt (Q). Either way the Steelers don’t have the offense to keep up with the Chargers on a bad day for Los Angeles, regardless of how well their defense is playing. Look for the Steelers to run heavy on the Chargers porous run defense (32nd) and control the clock, which is basically their only chance.
New York Giants 3-6 (+11) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-3 (49.5): Buccaneers 27-20
Monday, 8:15 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Clear; low 50s)
Keys: The only thing the Giants do well is take the ball away (10th INTs; 11th FUM), while the Buccaneers (18th giveaways) are still considered Super Bowl favorites by many despite their two-game slide to inferior teams (NO; WAS). Perhaps it’s karma from injuring Jameis Winston. The Giants have actually won two of their three wins just in the past three weeks after starting the season 1-5, and the last time the Giants faced an offensive juggernaut on the road getting at least ten points they covered with ease (KC). Add all of this to the Buccaneers latest Antonio Brown drama with the Giants being fresh off their bye week and I think we have a Giants cover here.
Stay tuned for PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Tuesday's Gone: Week 11 #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) coming late Tuesday or early Wednesday!
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