Tuesday's Gone: Week 8 #NFL Game Reviews
LEAVING LAS VEGAS EDITION
Good luck at the window this season!
Green Bay Packers 6-1 (+6) @ Arizona Cardinals 7-0 (51): Cardinals 28-27 Packers 24-21
Thursday, 8:20 PM, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: It’s a battle of the first half NFC titans Thursday night with the undefeated Cardinals hosting the 6-1 Packers in a showdown of the old guard v. the new school, where dynamic RPO offenses and constant motion at the line run by coaches younger than the players have taken over the NFL. Aaron Rodgers has clearly adapted, but it’s not Rodgers we’re worried about Thursday night, it’s the Packers defense, who will have their hands full on the short week. The Green Bay defense are no punks, though, ranking 7th in total and scoring defense, sacks and INTs. So maybe it’ll be the Cardinals offense that has their hands full. The bottom line is you never give six points to Aaron Rodgers mid-season with a healthy Davante Adams, especially when the Packers defense is balling. The only problem? Davante Adams isn’t healthy and is a no go for TNF. Suddenly the spread makes a little more sense, but not that much.
Murray threw the game-losing INT (2 INTs total) and may have tweaked a nagging injury in the process, but it's the Packers who are reeling despite the win because now their boy ARod is embroiled in controversy after testing positive for covid and lying about his vaccination status, or should I say misleading us with the immunization talk. Rodgers is on the ivermectin y'all.
Carolina Panthers 3-4 (+3) @ Atlanta Falcons 3-3 (46): Falcons 24-23 Panthers 19-13
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: If this game was two weeks ago the Falcons would be nearly TD underdogs at home, but a lot has changed in the past few weeks. Matt Ryan and Calvin Ridley are heating up for the Falcons, while Sam Darnold was just benched during the game because his Panthers uniform started to turn into a New York Jets uniform right before our eyes last Sunday. This team hasn’t been the same since at least the threat of CMC wasn’t there, and with key players like Shaq Thompson questionable for Sunday, a once dominate defense through the first quarter of the season suddenly doesn’t seem so dominant.
The Panthers pulled away in the second half with Matt Ryan throwing two INTs, which was key because Sam Darnold, who aggravated an injury, looked equally bad not throwing one.
Miami Dolphins 1-6 (+13.5) @ Buffalo Bills 4-2 (48): Bills 33-24 Bills 26-11
Sunday,- 1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: Chance rain; low 50s)
Keys: Both teams lost heart-breakers their last times out, but only one of these teams is poised to avenge the loss, because the Dolphins are not winning this game. Tua Tagovailoa is back from injury and playing great, but he hasn’t faced this Bills defense yet, and the last time the Dolphins played the Bills week 2 it was ugly (BUF 35-0). I wouldn’t expect a shut out with Tua back in the fold, but a Bills cover is certainly in the cards because the Dolphins couldn‘t stop the Atlanta Falcons, who are nothing like the Bills in any phase of the game besides place kicking and that’s because there aren’t many out there like Younghoe Koo.
The Bills only held a 10-3 lead into the 4th quarter before they woke up. Kill me.
San Francisco 49ers 2-4 (-3.5) @ Chicago Bears 3-4 (39.5): 49ers 23-21 49ers 33-22
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Sunny; low 50s)
Keys: Gag me with a spoon. The 49ers are a talented, but hurting team. The Bears are a talented on defense, and have suffered a SoS-challenged slate, but their offense is atrocious. Such a pairing makes for an ugly game Sunday. This is almost a game between two top-10 total defenses, but Chicago ranks 11th. As for offense, there’s not much to speak of (CHI 30th scoring offense; 32nd total offense), hence the 39.5 O/U, which by today’s NFL standards might is a low-scoring affair. The 49ers do have a decent offense, obviously because it’s run by Kyle Shanahan, but attrition has taken its toll on San Francisco.
After holding a small lead in the first half Justin Fields scampered 22 yards to the end zone bringing the game within one point midway through the 4th quarter before the 49ers scored 10-unanswered points to pull away.
Pittsburgh Steelers 3-3 (+3.5) @ Cleveland Browns 4-3 (42.5): Browns 27-24 Steelers 15-10
Sunday, 1:00 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: 50% rain; low 50s)
Keys: The Browns are as banged up as any team in the NFL and they’re still sizable favorites over the Steelers, who travel well from an hour away. In other words, the home field “advantage” is minimal for Cleveland, yet the remain more than 3-point favorites. That tells us everything we need to know about the Steelers, but what about the inconsistent Browns? One week they score over 40 and give up over 40; the next week the only yield 14, but only score 17. It seems to be a theme in Cleveland that will no doubt come back to haunt them against better teams. For now, they’re likely safe, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Pittsburgh covers because they still have a decent defense and the Browns are hobbled on offense.
The Browns defense picked a terrible time to start shining, because with the entire Browns offense hurt it doesn't even really matter. The once high-powered offense has been reduced to nothing following injuries to every starter on the offense and the Steelers were able to capitalize despite only scoring 15 points themselves, 12 of which came late in the 3rd quarter into the 4th. Yes, the Browns still led 10-3 deep in the 3rd quarter, which tells you something about how bad the Steelers actually are.
Philadelphia Eagles 2-5 (-3) @ Detroit Lions 0-7 (48): Eagles 26-21 Eagles 44-6
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Don’t be fooled by the Lions almost close game against the LA Rams last week, or their two record-breaking losses on FGs over 50 yards as time expired, these Lions are terrible and Jared Goff is not the man to bring them out of their funk. The truth is the Eagles aren’t much better, but the little better they are is on offense where they score just over 3 ppg more. Well, what do you know???
The Lions are who we thought they were.
Tennessee Titans 5-2 (-1.5) @ Indianapolis Colts 3-4 (49): Titans 30-24 Titans 34-31
Sunday, 1:00PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather Indoors)
Keys: I can’t run to the window fast enough to take the Titans and I might stay there to put more on the over. The Titans are red hot after an embarrassing loss to the NY Jets, beating arguably the NFL’s best team in the Buffalo Bills and then following up that win by crushing the KC Chiefs, both at home. The Titans won the first match up week 3 25-16, which is the game Derrick Henry started racking up 100+ yards games weekly. Even if the Colts have somehow turned things around (they haven’t) the Titans only need to win by two. I’m all over the Titans.
The Titans went up seven on a crazy Carson Wentz INT in the end zone, just to see Wentz tie the game and send it to OT, just to see Wentz screw it up again. Now the Titans move on without Derrick Henry, which will be interesting.
Cincinnati Bengals 5-2 (-9.5) @ New York Jets 1-5 (43.5): Bengals 33-17 Jets 34-31
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: 50% rain; low 50s)
Keys: This is a tricky game. Why, you ask? Well, because I have to determine whether or not the Jets can score enough points to compliment the 30-33 points the Bengals will score. So can the Jets score 13 points? They did against the Patriots, who I would argue have a slightly more talented defense than the Bengals very good one.
The handicappers set the line at Jets +3 before the public bet it up to +11 so obviously Las Vegas knew something, which was likely the Bengals overlooking a terrible Jets team while still basking in the glory of their win v. Baltimore the week before. Yet here the Bengals were, covering the spread midway through the 4th quarter before backup QB Mike White threw two of his three TDs late in the 4th quarter. Be like Mike, Zack.
Los Angeles Rams 6-1 (-14.5) @ Houston Texans 1-6 (48): Rams 31-16 Rams 38-22
Sunday, 1:00 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: I got burned last week thinking the Cardinals wouldn’t pull away enough to win by more than 17 points and also thinking the Rams would win by just over 16. Neither thing happened and now I’m sitting here dealing with two pieces of that puzzle from last week that are supposed to make the same picture. What a whirlwind. I’m going to throw caution to the wind here and say the Rams cover in the dome away from home, because we all know the dichotomy between these teams. It’s a big, yawning cavern. Stream Seinfeld now on Netflix!
Imagine taking the Rams at -16 (the closing line at many books) and seeing them go up 38-0 just to push because the Texans scored 22-unanswered 4th quarter points? Wow. Always remember, the teams playing don't care about betting. Well, some of them do.
New England Patriots 3-4 (+5.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers 4-2 (49): Chargers 26-24 Patriots 27-24
Sunday, 4:05 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Patriots have a chance to get back to .500 Sunday, but they face one of their tougher opponents in 2021 in the Chargers led by Justin Herbert, perhaps the least talked about potential superstar in the NFL. The Patriots defense (6th overall; 6th INTs) could cause some trouble for Herbert and the Chargers, but the Patriots suddenly spry offense could challenge the Chargers mediocre-at-best defense, which means the over could be in play, too, because the Patriots actually score more ppg than the Chargers do (+0.9 ppg). The Patriots should have a field day running on one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL, meaning not only is the cover in play, but the Patriots could actually win this thing.
Almost.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) @ Seattle Seahawks 2-5 (44): Seahawks 21-20 Seahawks 31-7
Sunday, 4:05 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: Mostly Sunny; mid-50s)
Keys: Without Russell Wilson this is one of the worst games of week 8. Considering the Seahawks almost beat the New Orleans Saints Monday night I don’t much of a chance to the Jaguars. Then again, I don’t have any faith in either of these teams, so suffice to say, the Jaguars aren’t ready to travel across the country and beat anyone, even the Wilson-less Seahawks.
I guess the Geno Smith effect got to me here, because I never should've had a rookie traveling across the country to face the 12th Man covering 3.5 points. The Geno Smith effect is strong, but he did throw two TDs.
Washington Football Team 2-5 (+3) @ Denver Broncos 3-4 (43.5): Broncos 24-20 Broncos 17-10
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Chance rain; low 50s)
Keys: The Washington Football Team will get none of my respect until they put some on their eventual name or get rid of Dan Snyder. In all seriousness, has everyone now realized this dude is single-handily taking down one of the cornerstone franchises in NFL history? As for the game, my Broncos assessments are all the same: Defense holds enough that Teddy Bridgewater can score more points. Seems simple enough, right?
Finally these two defenses lived up to their names...against awful offenses. Why did I take the over???
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-1 (+9) @ New Orleans Saints 4-2 (51): Buccaneers 30-24 Saints 36-27
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Tom Brady heads to the former home of Drew Brees, the guy Brady just made irrelevant weeks into the first season the poor guy retired from football. At this rate Brady is playing to make sure no one returns the favor. Imagine being a Mahomes type and throwing 50 TDs a season thinking your name will be at the top some day and all the while this effing 44-year-old is putting up the same numbers 20 years your senior. The Saints are a good, well-rounded team, but unlike the Buccaneers, the QB position at New Orleans provides the most questions and they don’t all necessarily get answered. The Buccaneers have serious attrition problems all over the defense, but that clearly hasn’t been an issue while their offense is scoring over 30 ppg consistently.
Similar to Geno Smith, Jameis Winston is a hard guy to trust on a straight win against a team like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but when you get 9 points you have to take that every time the Saints are at home with something to lose, which apparently is even true once the back up Trevor Siemian comes in after a dirty play ended Winston's season. Tom Brady (4 TDs) fumbled and threw two INTs in a losing effort that Brady had control of deep into the 4th quarter. What's the stat again on games lost while entering the 4th quarter with a lead...
Dallas Cowboys 5-1 (-2.5) @ Minnesota Vikings 3-3 (54.5): Vikings 30-27 Cowboys 20-16
Sunday,8:20 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Cowboys have one of the worst defenses in the league of any winning team, and several keys players are out Sunday night, which means the Vikings could have a field day at home, except the Cowboys score at an even more torrent pace. In fact, the league’s top offense by far gains nearly 50 ypg more than the next team (460.8 ypg) and averages almost 35 ppg (34.2 ppg). Dallas is also doing this averaging a 2nd-best 164.3 rush ypg, which chews up a ton of clock. The Vikings are no slouches in the run game themselves (8th – 127.8 ypg), meaning unless the Vikings defense breaks out of their shell and starts playing the way people anticipated in the preseason the under has no chance because these two dynamic explosive offenses are about as evenly-matched as one could hope for in a potentially high-scoring game. The Vikings defense could actually be the difference in the game, besides the Cowboys annual swoon when they start feeling themselves and fall off looms.
Holy shit the Vikings are infuriating. Dak Prescott didn't even play!!!
New York Giants 2-5 (+10) @ Kansas City Chiefs 3-4 (52): Chiefs 27-23 Chiefs 20-17
Monday, 8:15 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Cloudy; high 30s)
Keys: At first glance this seems like a no-brainer, and maybe it is, but Patrick Mahomes was destroyed last week by a serious hit, and although he passed the concussion protocol immediately somehow, the effects could linger and the Giants have some defensive pop themselves. This is a crucial week for Kansas City as they either get back to .500 against an inferior team and start to get back on track for the second half of the season or watch a supposed dynasty crumble faster than the United States empire is.
The Chiefs good enough, or to be fair, healthy enough, to be 10-point favorites against anyone, let alone these Giants, who are no punks on the defensive side. The Giants actually led into the 4th quarter, although it was mere seconds, in this penalty- and TO-filled game.
Stay tuned for Week 9: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) TNF EDITION coming Thursday!
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