Week 8: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
ENTERING LAS VEGAS EDITION
Good luck at the window this season!
Green Bay Packers 6-1 (+6) @ Arizona Cardinals 7-0 (51): Cardinals 28-27
Thursday, 8:20 PM, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: It’s a battle of the first half NFC titans Thursday night with the undefeated Cardinals hosting the 6-1 Packers in a showdown of the old guard v. the new school, where dynamic RPO offenses and constant motion at the line run by coaches younger than the players have taken over the NFL. Aaron Rodgers has clearly adapted, but it’s not Rodgers we’re worried about Thursday night, it’s the Packers defense, who will have their hands full on the short week. The Green Bay defense are no punks, though, ranking 7th in total and scoring defense, sacks and INTs. So maybe it’ll be the Cardinals offense that has their hands full. The bottom line is you never give six points to Aaron Rodgers mid-season with a healthy Davante Adams, especially when the Packers defense is balling. The only problem? Davante Adams isn’t healthy and is a no go for TNF. Suddenly the spread makes a little more sense, but not that much.
Carolina Panthers 3-4 (+3) @ Atlanta Falcons 3-3 (46): Falcons 24-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: If this game was two weeks ago the Falcons would be nearly TD underdogs at home, but a lot has changed in the past few weeks. Matt Ryan and Calvin Ridley are heating up for the Falcons, while Sam Darnold was just benched during the game because his Panthers uniform started to turn into a New York Jets uniform right before our eyes last Sunday. This team hasn’t been the same since at least the threat of CMC wasn’t there, and with key players like Shaq Thompson questionable for Sunday, a once dominate defense through the first quarter of the season suddenly doesn’t seem so dominant.
Miami Dolphins 1-6 (+13.5) @ Buffalo Bills 4-2 (48): Bills 33-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: Chance rain; low 50s)
Keys: Both teams lost heart-breakers their last times out, but only one of these teams is poised to avenge the loss, because the Dolphins are not winning this game. Tua Tagovailoa is back from injury and playing great, but he hasn’t faced this Bills defense yet, and the last time the Dolphins played the Bills week 2 it was ugly (BUF 35-0). I wouldn’t expect a shut out with Tua back in the fold, but a Bills cover is certainly in the cards because the Dolphins couldn‘t stop the Atlanta Falcons, who are nothing like the Bills in any phase of the game besides place kicking and that’s because there aren’t many out there like Younghoe Koo.
San Francisco 49ers 2-4 (-3.5) @ Chicago Bears 3-4 (39.5): 49ers 23-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Sunny; low 50s)
Keys: Gag me with a spoon. The 49ers are a talented, but hurting team. The Bears are a talented on defense, and have suffered a SoS-challenged slate, but their offense is atrocious. Such a pairing makes for an ugly game Sunday. This is almost a game between two top-10 total defenses, but Chicago ranks 11th. As for offense, there’s not much to speak of (CHI 30th scoring offense; 32nd total offense), hence the 39.5 O/U, which by today’s NFL standards might is a low-scoring affair. The 49ers do have a decent offense, obviously because it’s run by Kyle Shanahan, but attrition has taken its toll on San Francisco.
Pittsburgh Steelers 3-3 (+3.5) @ Cleveland Browns 4-3 (42.5): Browns 27-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: 50% rain; low 50s)
Keys: The Browns are as banged up as any team in the NFL and they’re still sizable favorites over the Steelers, who travel well from an hour away. In other words, the home field “advantage” is minimal for Cleveland, yet the remain more than 3-point favorites. That tells us everything we need to know about the Steelers, but what about the inconsistent Browns? One week they score over 40 and give up over 40; the next week the only yield 14, but only score 17. It seems to be a theme in Cleveland that will no doubt come back to haunt them against better teams. For now, they’re likely safe, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Pittsburgh covers because they still have a decent defense and the Browns are hobbled on offense.
Philadelphia Eagles 2-5 (-3) @ Detroit Lions 0-7 (48): Eagles 26-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Don’t be fooled by the Lions almost close game against the LA Rams last week, or their two record-breaking losses on FGs over 50 yards as time expired, these Lions are terrible and Jared Goff is not the man to bring them out of their funk. The truth is the Eagles aren’t much better, but the little better they are is on offense where they score just over 3 ppg more. Well, what do you know???
Tennessee Titans 5-2 (-1.5) @ Indianapolis Colts 3-4 (49): Titans 30-24
Sunday, 1:00PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather Indoors)
Keys: I can’t run to the window fast enough to take the Titans and I might stay there to put more on the over. The Titans are red hot after an embarrassing loss to the NY Jets, beating arguably the NFL’s best team in the Buffalo Bills and then following up that win by crushing the KC Chiefs, both at home. The Titans won the first match up week 3 25-16, which is the game Derrick Henry started racking up 100+ yards games weekly. Even if the Colts have somehow turned things around (they haven’t) the Titans only need to win by two. I’m all over the Tiatns.
Cincinnati Bengals 5-2 (-9.5) @ New York Jets 1-5 (43.5): Bengals 33-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: 50% rain; low 50s)
Keys: This is a tricky game. Why, you ask? Well, because I have to determine whether or not the Jets can score enough points to compliment the 30-33 points the Bengals will score. So can the Jets score 13 points? They did against the Patriots, who I would argue have a slightly more talented defense than the Bengals very good one.
Los Angeles Rams 6-1 (-14.5) @ Houston Texans 1-6 (48): Rams 31-16
Sunday, 1:00 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: I got burned last week thinking the Cardinals wouldn’t pull away enough to win by more than 17 points and also thinking the Rams would win by just over 16. Neither thing happened and now I’m sitting here dealing with two pieces of that puzzle from last week that are supposed to make the same picture. What a whirlwind. I’m going to throw caution to the wind here and say the Rams cover in the dome away from home, because we all know the dichotomy between these teams. It’s a big, yawning cavern. Stream Seinfeld now on Netflix!
New England Patriots 3-4 (+5.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers 4-2 (49): Chargers 26-24
Sunday, 4:05 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Patriots have a chance to get back to .500 Sunday, but they face one of their tougher opponents in 2021 in the Chargers led by Justin Herbert, perhaps the least talked about potential superstar in the NFL. The Patriots defense (6th overall; 6th INTs) could cause some trouble for Herbert and the Chargers, but the Patriots suddenly spry offense could challenge the Chargers mediocre-at-best defense, which means the over could be in play, too, because the Patriots actually score more ppg than the Chargers do (+0.9 ppg). The Patriots should have a field day running on one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL, meaning not only is the cover in play, but the Patriots could actually win this thing.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) @ Seattle Seahawks 2-5 (44): Seahawks 21-20
Sunday, 4:05 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: Mostly Sunny; mid-50s)
Keys: Without Russell Wilson this is one of the worst games of week 8. Considering the Seahawks almost beat the New Orleans Saints Monday night I don’t much of a chance to the Jaguars. Then again, I don’t have any faith in either of these teams, so suffice to say, the Jaguars aren’t ready to travel across the country and beat anyone, even the Wilson-less Seahawks.
Washington Football Team 2-5 (+3) @ Denver Broncos 3-4 (43.5): Broncos 24-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Chance rain; low 50s)
Keys: The Washington Football Team will get none of my respect until they put some on their eventual name or get rid of Dan Snyder. In all seriousness, has everyone now realized this dude is single-handily taking down one of the cornerstone franchises in NFL history? As for the game, my Broncos assessments are all the same: Defense holds enough that Teddy Bridgewater can score more points. Seems simple enough, right?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-1 (+9) @ New Orleans Saints 4-2 (51): Buccaneers 30-24
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Tom Brady heads to the former home of Drew Brees, the guy Brady just made irrelevant weeks into the first season the poor guy retired from football. At this rate Brady is playing to make sure no one returns the favor. Imagine being a Mahomes type and throwing 50 TDs a season thinking your name will be at the top some day and all the while this effing 44-year-old is putting up the same numbers 20 years your senior. The Saints are a good, well-rounded team, but unlike the Buccaneers, the QB position at New Orleans provides the most questions and they don’t all necessarily get answered. The Buccaneers have serious attrition problems all over the defense, but that clearly hasn’t been an issue while their offense is scoring over 30 ppg consistently.
Dallas Cowboys 5-1 (-2.5) @ Minnesota Vikings 3-3 (54.5): Vikings 30-27
Sunday,8:20 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Cowboys have one of the worst defenses in the league of any winning team, and several keys players are out Sunday night, which means the Vikings could have a field day at home, except the Cowboys score at an even more torrent pace. In fact, the league’s top offense by far gains nearly 50 ypg more than the next team (460.8 ypg) and averages almost 35 ppg (34.2 ppg). Dallas is also doing this averaging a 2nd-best 164.3 rush ypg, which chews up a ton of clock. The Vikings are no slouches in the run game themselves (8th – 127.8 ypg), meaning unless the Vikings defense breaks out of their shell and starts playing the way people anticipated in the preseason the under has no chance because these two dynamic explosive offenses are about as evenly-matched as one could hope for in a potentially high-scoring game. The Vikings defense could actually be the difference in the game, besides the Cowboys annual swoon when they start feeling themselves and fall off looms.
New York Giants 2-5 (+10) @ Kansas City Chiefs 3-4 (52): Chiefs 27-23
Monday, 8:15 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Cloudy; high 30s)
Keys: At first glance this seems like a no-brainer, and maybe it is, but Patrick Mahomes was destroyed last week by a serious hit, and although he passed the concussion protocol immediately somehow, the effects could linger and the Giants have some defensive pop themselves. This is a crucial week for Kansas City as they either get back to .500 against an inferior team and start to get back on track for the second half of the season or watch a supposed dynasty crumble faster than the United States empire is.
Stay tuned for Tuesday's Gone: Week 8 #NFL Game Reviews coming Wednesday!
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