Week 6: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
Sunday Edition
Good luck at the window this season!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-1 (-7) @ Philadelphia Eagles 2-3 (52.5): 27-24
Thursday, 8:20 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Cloudy; high 60s)
Keys: The Buccaneers are pretty banged up and their only dominant wins of the season this year have come against the hapless Atlanta Falcons and the disappointing Miami Dolphins. They should have lost to Dallas and New England and they got whooped by the Los Angeles Rams. So why are people so obsessed with a Bucs team that could easily be 2-3? Beats me. The Eagles are struggling with attrition, too, losing Dallas Goedert to injury and Lane Johnson to rehab, which only strains Jalen Hurts more, especially considering the Buccaneers have the league's top run defense. The Eagles have the league's third best passing defense, and could pressure on Tom Brady, potentially keeping the score low on a short week, but the Eagles don't have enough fire power to keep up with Tampa Bay even on a bad night. At least they'll cover the seven points.
Miami Dolphins 1-4 (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 0-5 (47): Jaguars 27-23
Sunday, 9:30 AM, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, England (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Tua Tagovailoa is back and just in time. Miami is the only team in the NFL ranking 30th or worse in all four major offensive categories, and the real problem is Miami’s defense is just as bad (31st total & scoring defense). This could be just the medicine the Jaguars need, as they’ve lost 20 straight games dating back to the beginning of 2020. Is the NFL trying to turn England away from the NFL???
Green Bay Packers 4-1 (-5.5) @ Chicago Bears 3-2 (44): Packers 24-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Sunny; high 60s)
Keys: The Packers have won 11 of the past 13 games between these two division rivals and not much has changed. The Bears are still woeful offensively despite their supposed offensive guru in head coach Matt Nagy, but the defense has helped keep Chicago competitive with the 7th ranked scoring defense and 8th ranked total defense. The same could be said for the Packers, who rank 6th in total defense themselves, but have displayed a break-don’t-bend defense because they yield 24.4 ppg (20th). In fact, these teams are much more similar than they are different (both teams have negative point differentials), the one obvious glaring difference being Aaron Rodgers and Davate Adams, who will likely be the difference Sunday.
Cincinnati Bengals 3-2 (-3.5) v. Detroit Lions 0-5 (47): Bengals 30-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Both of these teams lost last week on last second FGs, but only the Lions will lose this game to a last-second 50+ yard FG. I jest, but it’s actually a potential reality. The Lions are awful, in addition to their bad luck, while the Bengals have an electrifying offense at times with Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Mixon, who are all among league leaders at their respective positions, with a defense to compliment.
Houston Texans 1-4 (+10) @ Indianapolis Colts 1-4 (43): Colts 26-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather Indoors)
Keys: The Colts got kicked in the stomach last week after the Baltimore Ravens put on a clinic to snatch the game late in the 4th quarter into OT, while the Texans held a 22-9 lead late in the 3rd quarter against the New England Patriots before squandering their chances at keeping 2021 interesting. Now both teams are 1-4, rethinking their strategies and realizing this is the first year it’s not over after 16 games. The Texans 26th ranked run defense could struggle against Jonathan Taylor, while the Texans suddenly sprite passing game (3 TDs on 312 passing yards) could keep the game within ten points against the Colts 20th ranked passing defense.
Los Angeles Rams 41 (-9.5) @ New York Giants 1-4 (50): Rams 30-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)
Keys: The Giants have been absolutely awful so far this year and Daniel Jones and the Giants four top WRs are all questionable with a capital Q and Saquon Barkely is doubtful with a capital D. So suffice to say the Giants almost have no chance in this game, and by almost “no chance” I mean we can never say never in the NFL because the Rams could be in a secret cult and have a plan to drink poisonous Kool-Aid before the National Anthem, which would likely forfeit the game to the Giants.
Kansas City Chiefs 2-3 (-6.5) @ Washington Football Team 2-3 (54.5): Chiefs 40-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather: Sunny; high 60s)
Keys: There have been few games in the past few years that I have more confidence in a winner than the Chiefs in week 6. Kansas City has a losing record more than a quarter through the season (playing one the toughest SoS through five weeks) and the Washington defense is atrocious. That’s all the motivation the former kings of the AFC need after the Buffalo Bills took their title from them last week. The only question here is whether the Chiefs will score so fast and often they let the Football team get in on the act and help them crush this over. I think it’s possible.
Minnesota Vikings 2-3 (-2) @ Carolina Panthers 3-2 (45.5): Panthers 24-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Sunny; high 60s)
Keys: Home dog alert. One could argue the tape is out on the Carolina Panthers, but one could counter with the Panthers need this week to prove they’re legit against a formidable dome opponent outside at home. The truth is the Panthers rushed CMC back and it bit them in the ass. Sam Darnold hasn’t been the same guy without his safety net and the play action has suffered, which are obviously two sides of the same coin. Look for the Panthers top-ranked passing offense and 8th ranked run defense to clamp down on this Vikings team as Dalvin Cook has been shaken up of late and Kirk Cousins has gone from a quick start his first three games (8 TDs:0 INTs) to a serious regression the past two games (2 TDs:2 INTs), which puts Cousins at 17th for total QBR (54.5).
Los Angeles Chargers 4-1 (+2.5) @ Baltimore Ravens 4-1 (51.5): Chargers 28-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Sunny; high 60s)
Keys: This game features two divisional leaders, although the Ravens (top total offense; 9th scoring offense) are lucky to even be in this position. The Ravens are 4-1 by an average margin of victory of 3.8 ppg if you take out a 23-7 win over the Denver Broncos week 4, and those four wins include one OT win and two wins by one and two points. One could argue their only lose was in OT, meaning they could easily be 5-0, but that doesn’t fit my narrative that these Ravens are on the verge of being a losing team and in trouble against the high-powered AFC West leading Chargers (5th total offense; 7th scoring offense). These two defenses leave something to be desired, so wave goodbye to the under and realize the game will come down to TOs, where the Chargers rank 10th in TO differential (+2), while Ravens, well, don’t (-1).
Arizona Cardinals 5-0 (-3.5) @ Cleveland Browns 3-2 (49.5): Browns 27-24
Sunday, 4:05 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: 60% rain; low 60s)
Keys: Perhaps the game of the week, I’m all over the home dog here. Giving 3.5 points to the Browns (4th scoring offense) at home is a really bad idea, even if the Cardinals are the 6th ranked scoring defense, because we’ve seen how terrible the Browns defense can be against high-scoring teams and they still rank 11th in scoring defense. The Cardinals score slightly more than Cleveland (4th: 31.4 ppg), which begs the question, is this all the handicappers thought of when they analyzed this game? Arizona scores 3 ppg more, their defense is slightly better and they’re on the road? Ok 3.5 points it is. Look for Cleveland to bounce back from their heartbreaking loss last week and put the intercontinental Cardinals away at home. Oh, it’s a 4:05 PM game? You lucky effing Cardinals.
Las Vegas Raiders 3-2 (+3.5) @ Denver Broncos 3-2 (44): Broncos 23-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Sunny; high 70s)
Keys: The Gruden fallout didn’t take long. Suddenly the once “3-0 for the first time in 20 years” Raiders have lost two straight, their way and their head coach. Jon Gruden resigned this week after a sexual misconduct investigation into that joke of an organization called the “Washington Football Team” led by the cringe-worthy POS billionaire owner Dan Snyder somehow unearthed equally cringe-worthy emails in which Gruden proved to everyone why people not associated with football call it the “football mentality”. Homophobic, misogynistic and racist language abound in these now infamous emails that sank Gruden’s long and “storied” career in the NFL. Now the leaderless Raiders find themselves in a divisional battle with a mediocre Broncos team that no one is giving them a shot to beat. Certainly not me.
Dallas Cowboys 4-1 (-3.5) @ New England Patriots 2-3 (50.5): Cowboys 27-24
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: 30% rain; low 60s)
Keys: On the outside this game seems like a great defense taking on an explosive offense in the perennial playoff town of Foxboro, but the truth is this is a New England team without an offense to speak of, with an older oft-injured kicker who may or may not hit the desperate 50-yard game winner and defense just trying to keep this team afloat against an explosive Cowboys team (2nd overall & scoring offense) that’s one 3-point loss to the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers from being 5-0, and against a formidable SoS at that. Speaking of SoS the Patriots have only beaten two terrible teams (NY Jets; Houston Texans) and even lost to one (Miami Dolphins). As much as I believe in Bill Belichick and this Patriots defense (5th overall & scoring), the Cowboys are too hot right now. They’re also 2nd in the NFL with a +7 TO differential, which is usually how the Patriots (27th) beat people.
Seattle Seahawks 2-3 (+5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 2-3 (42.5): Steelers 23-17
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Clear; low 50s)
Keys: I think we all know the fate of this Seahawks team until Russell Wilson gets back.
Buffalo Bills 4-1 (-5.5) @ Tennessee Titans 3-2 (53.5): Bills 31-24
Monday, 8:15 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Clear; low 50s)
Keys: It’s ground vs. air, but we all know which is more valuable in today’s NFL or shipping packages. The Bills score in bunches and have the defense to prevent opponents from scoring at all, while the still one-dimensional Tennessee Henry’s have had trouble getting their WRs off the ground. There’s a reason the league’s best team is giving a solid Titans team 5.5 points on the road – they’re better in every way and also just happen to be the league’s 3rd ranked run defense.
Stay tuned for Tuesday's Gone: Week 6 #NFL Game Reviews coming Wednesday!
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