Week 7: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
SUNDAY EDITION
Good luck at the window this season!
Denver Broncos 3-3 (+2) @ Cleveland Browns 3-3 (41): Browns 24-20
Thursday, 8:20 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: 70% rain; low 50s)
Keys: The Browns are hurting physically, losing their two starting RBs to injury the past two weeks, while the Broncos are hurting mentally, losers of three straight games after starting the season 3-0. It should also be pointed out the Broncos started 3-0 against arguably the easiest SoS in the entire league through three games (NYG/JAX/NYJ). The loss of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt could be devastating, however, at least in week 7, because the Broncos rank 4th against the run and Cleveland will essentially be forced into the air, where the attrition runs almost as deep. Jarvis Landry has been on IR most of the season, OBJ is questionable Thursday night and Baker Mayfield aggravated the torn labrum on his non-throwing shoulder. So if Teddy Bridgewater can keep the TOs to a minimum Denver has a real shot on the road on a short week. Cleveland is the better team, despite the injuries, and can't afford to fall any further behind Cincinnati in the AFC North so it's time for this supposedly good Browns defense to step up against a mediocre Broncos offense in the driving rain.
Washington Football Team 2-4 (+8) @ Green Bay Packers 5-1 (48.5): Packers 28-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Mostly sunny; low 50s)
Keys: In typical Packers fashion Green Bay is winning games in the ugliest way possible, but a win is a win, because they could be Washington and losing games in the ugliest ways possible, all while trying to navigate the storm Dan Snyder and his staff have brewed over the past several years. The Football Team can’t handle the combo of Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams as the two heat up right as the season turns cold, you know, in typical Packers fashion.
Kansas City Chiefs 3-3 (-4.5) @ Tennessee Titans 4-2 (57.5): Chiefs 31-30
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)
Keys: The Titans proved last week they’re no punks by taking it to the Buffalo Bills, arguably the NFL’s best team. Now Tennessee plays another giant, and an angry one at that. The Chiefs defense has abandoned them and the tape is out on Patrick Mahomes: Make him uncomfortable and flush him out of the pocket and there’s only so many miracle throws the guy can make. Go figure. Tennessee will undoubtedly ride their horse Derrick Henry as long as he’s standing and there’s not much the Chiefs can do about it. Neither defense can hold anyone, especially two powerhouse offenses, so look for this O/U to get toppled, despite it being nearly 60 total points. Such is today’s NFL, even via the ground evidently.
Atlanta Falcons 2-3 (-2.5) @ Miami Dolphins 1-5 (47.5): Dolphins 25-Falcons 24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: 80% storms; low 80s)
Keys: This spread should tell you everything you need to know about the Miami Dolphins, who seemed poised to get out of the basement after drafting Tua Tagovailoa. Anyone with a brain would have told you Tua was a huge injury risk, and viola, almost like his namesake, here we are. The Falcons are gross, too, which makes me think taking the Dolphins and the points at home might not be such a bad idea.
New York Jets 1-4 (+7) @ New England Patriots 2-4 (42.5): Patriots 27-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)
Keys: The Patriots have to be licking their chops. The Jets are arguably one of the three worst teams in the NFL right now and the Patriots have lost two games to two of the NFL’s best team (TB & DAL) by a missed 56-yard FG in the rain and in OT, respectively. New England isn’t catching Buffalo, but there’s still a wild card to think about. Nothing would satisfy Bill Belichick more than to enter the ring as a wild card and ruin the party. Look for the Patriots defense to get their confidence back against an insufferably weak Jets offense, while Rookie of the Week Mac Jones gains a little more confidence by dragging the Jets at home.
Carolina Panthers 3-3 (-3) @ New York Giants 1-5 (45): Panthers 24-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)
Keys: The Panthers are in full tail-spin mode losing their last three games after starting the season 3-0 and things probably aren’t getting any better until they get their identity back from injury in the form of one CMC. The Panthers defense, another major reason for their early season success, has been getting knocked around of late. Well, just in the nick of time Carolina gets the lowly Giants and some rain to help them get back on track.
Cincinnati Bengals 4-2 (+6.5) @ Baltimore Ravens 5-1 (46.5): Ravens 24-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Sunny; high 60s)
Keys: The betting public sure has put a lot of stock into the Ravens blowout win against the LA Chargers, because as we talked about last week this Ravens team could’ve easily entered the week 3-3 and behind the Bengals in the AFC North, yet here we are. I think people forget just how good the Bengals defense has been through six games, and for the first time in what seems like decades the Bengals has a role to play other than spoiler. When I see spreads like this I get nervous that there’s something I’m missing, but the truth is Las Vegas and the betting public simply think the Ravens are slightly better and at home, which evidently makes them nearly a TD favorite. I’m running to the window to take the 6.5 points.
Philadelphia Eagles 2-4 (+3) @ Las Vegas Raiders 4-2 (49.5): Raiders 27-23
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Raiders are known for offense, yet only gain ~40 ypg and 1.7 ppg more than Philadelphia. The Eagles are known for defense, yet the Raiders are 6th in sacks and only give up 8 ypg more and actually yield 1.3 fewer ppg. It’s interesting the game opened at PHI +2.5, because that means the handicappers only think the Raiders are slight favorites, because they probably only get 1.5-2 points for the home field advantage being in Las Vegas, where opponents fans abound. It looks like the public put things back into perspective.
Detroit Lions 0-5 (+16) @ Los Angeles Rams 5-1 (50.5): Rams 30-13
Sunday, 4:05 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: How embarrassing for Jared Goff. Not only does he have the awkward task of coming back to the team the drafted him #1, gave him a giant contract and then traded him for a guy 10 years his senior plus a bunch of first round draft picks, but the Rams have been balling without him while his new team hasn’t improved at all. One could argue that means Matthew Stafford and Goff are essentially interchangeable, but everyone can see the difference, and the Rams are +3 (8th), which means Tiny Hands isn’t fumbling their chances away anymore. Now he’s doing that for the Lions (-1).
Houston Texans 1-5 (+17.5) @ Arizona Cardinals 6-0 (47.5): Cardinals 33-17
Sunday, 4:25 PM, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: This is one of those trap games, but the only real trap here is the 17.5 points. That’s quite a feat even for the mighty Cardinals (2nd TO differential; 3rd scoring D; 4th scoring O; 5th sacks; 7th total O; 10th total D) at home against the putrid Texans (26th total D; 27th scoring D; 27th TO differential; 29th total O; 31st scoring O). I mean, they probably cover, but I’m staying away.
Chicago Bears 3-3 (+12) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-1 (47): Buccaneers 26-23
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: 30% storms; low 80s)
Keys: The difference between this game and the HOU@ARZ game is the Bears actually have a great defense (7th total; 8th scoring), so the 12 points are pretty tasty, no matter how how powered this Buccaneers offense is (3rd total & scoring), especially in the rain with a few key pieces missing. If Kahlil Mack is a go, think about taking the points.
Indianapolis Colts 2-4 (+4) @ San Francisco 49ers 2-3 (44): 49ers 23-20
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: 100% rain; mid-50s)
Keys: The Colts aren’t dead yet, and the 49ers are back to Jimmy G after losing Trey Lance to injury. In fact, there are injuries all up and down these rosters and the game will be a wash out. It’s hard to imagine the Colts losing by more then four points, if they lose at all, but we have a real shot at the under here.
New Orleans Saints 3-2 (-4.5) @ Seattle Seahawks 2-4 (42.5): Saints 24-17
Monday, 8:15 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: 100% rain; mid-50s)
Keys: Much like the IND@SF game we can expect a washout, and much like that Sunday night game, the under has a real shot. The Seahawks should struggle to score again without Russell Wilson, and the Saints are a dome team led by a QB prone to making bad decisions. Still, Jameis Winston can still ball when he’s on and these run-heavy Saints (9th rush ypg) should do just fine in the muck. It’s tough to give the nod to a dome team getting 4.5 points on the road on MNF in the pouring rain, but again, the under could be a given.
Stay tuned for Tuesday's Gone: Week 7: #NFL Game Reviews coming Wednesday!
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