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Wednesday, October 30, 2019

PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Week 9: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) SUNDAY EDITION

2019 NFL SEASON 
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Week 9:  #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
SUNDAY EDITION

2019 NFL SEASON WEEK 8: 
  14-1 .933 (WINS); 8-6-1 .571 (ATS); 9-5 .643 (O/U)
2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:
81-39-1 .675 (WINS); 66-52-2 .559 (ATS); 68-49-3 .618 (O/U)
WEEK 8 TOP 5 GAMES:
2-2-1 (.500)
TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:
23-15-2 (.605)
 
Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All images from Google with permission to reuse without license* Statistical sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider


NEW TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON
< Drake voice >
"TOP 5 TOP 5 TOP 5"
 
Pro Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week for either the spread OR O/U denoted by an asterisk (*). Roll with our Top 5 and watch the money pile up all season!


 Arizona Cardinals rookie QB Kyler Murray faces the toughest task of his young career going against a 49ers team in mid-season form.



San Francisco 49ers 7-0 (-10) @ Arizona Cardinals 3-4-1 (43): 49ers 31-13

Thursday, 8:20 PM, Univ. of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors) 

Keys: About the only disadvantage the 49ers have is three fewer hours rest and a short flight to Phoenix. Besides that, Cardinals head coach Cliff Kingsbury is about to see what the true future of the NFL looks like, because he'll be across the field suffering it. The San Fransisco 49ers are arguably the best team in the NFL. The Arizona Cardinals, on the other hand, are the 29th-ranked defense, and only gain 5.7 net yards per attempt in the air. Arizona could also be down to their 3rd-string RB after losing Chase Edmonds Sunday. Edmonds was the Cardinals only chance of any potential mismatches, and even that would've been a stretch. It's about time people recognize these 49ers as the best team in the NFL, not that the Cardinals are the barometer by which to be measured. Don't be fooled by talk of a short-week home field bounce-back game for the Cardinals, the 49ers are for real and their trip is short.



Houston Texans 5-3 (-2) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 4-4 (46.5): Texans 27-23

Sunday, 9:30 AM, Wembley Stadium, London, England (Weather: 50% rain; high 50s) 


Keys: This game comes down to the Texans revamped offensive line protecting Deshaun Watson long enough for him to get the ball to his various weapons. That could be hard against Calais Campbell and the Jaguars pass rush, 4th in the league in sacks, but Houston's new addition Laramy Tunsil is the second-rated pass protecting tackle in the league. Speaking of weapons, Jaguars DJ Chark is quietly having an All-Pro season as the league’s 5th-rated WR according to Pro Football Focus. These teams also have two of the best running games in the NFL, but only the Texans have one of the best run defenses in the NFL. Look for Houston to give Watson just enough time to take advantage of their mismatches with the Jaguars secondary.



Washington Pigskins 1-7 (+9.5) @ Buffalo Bills 5-2 (37): Bills 20-16
Sunday, 1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: Sunny; low 40s)

Keys: Everyone outside of Buffalo have expected the Bills to come back down to Earth any week and assumed it started with the Philadelphia Eagles Sunday. Before you go assuming the Pigskins are the perfect bounce back game, the Bills 24th-ranked scoring offense might even have trouble scoring points against the Pigskins 19th-ranked scoring defense. On offense Washington is going to have to figure it out, or else rely on catastrophic TOs, because the Pigskins have one of the three worst offenses in the NFL and the Bills only allow 17.4 ppg. I’m not sure the Bills offense is good enough to lay 9.5 on any team in the NFL, but the win is a lock as the Bills need to get on track to stay in the playoff race.



Minnesota Vikings 6-2 (-2) @ Kansas City Chiefs 5-3 (48.5): Chiefs 24-23

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Sunny; high 50s)


Keys: Just to give you an idea of how close these two teams are, according to Pro Football Reference’s SRS metric (SOS:point differential) the Vikings are ranked 4th in the NFL and the Chiefs are ranked 5th. In a healthy world this would be the Chiefs high-powered offense(2nd passing; 4th points; 5th yards) at Arrowhead hosting arguably the best team in the NFL (Vikings O: 10th points & 3rd yards; Vikings D: 3rd points allowed & 5th yards allowed). It’s not a healthy world, however, and Patrick Mahomes is doubtful, which makes things very difficult for Kansas City. Even if Mahomes played I’d be incline to pick the Vikings, because, among other things, the Chiefs can’t stop the run and Dalvin Cook and the Vikings run all over everyone (160 rush ypg). But the Chiefs can’t lose four straight home games, can they?



It's always best when Bag Man could be either team's fan.



New York Jets 1-6 (-3) @ Miami Dolphins 0-7 (40.5): Jets 24-17

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: 40% storms; low 80s)


Keys: These are the type of games that aren’t even worth writing about because no one in their right mind is going to bet on it, but here we go. The only thing that separates these terrible teams is the Jets defense allows 7.4 fewer points allowed per game on defense and scores 0.1 ppg more on offense (both teams average 11 ppg). If Sam Darnold can cut out the TOs the Jets should be able to help their defense keep those 7.4 points off the board and cover easily.



Chicago Bears 3-4 (+6.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles 4-4 (47.5): Eagles 24-20

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Sunny; high 50s)


Keys: It wasn’t long ago when the Bears were Super Bowl LIV contenders, their defense was historically great and Mitchell Trubisky was a sleeper MVP candidate. Well, then the Bears played some games. Now those same Bears have lost three straight, all at home, on their way to a losing record, the defense is carrying the entire load and Trubisky is the lowest rated QB in the NFL with over 200 snaps according to Pro Football Focus; only Josh Rosen grades lower on only 56% of the snaps (Trubisky has 344 snaps). The Eagles haven’t fared much better, but the situation at QB is the polar opposite, as Carson Wentz is the 3rd-rated QB in the league by the same metrics. Any short comings in Philadelphia can be attributed to attitude and attrition, where most of the issues in Chicago are at QB and don’t seem fixable. Look for the Eagles to remain on track at home, while the Bears stare blankly back at the 2017 NFL Draft board.



*Indianapolis Colts 5-2 (+1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 3-4 (43): Colts 23-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Partly sunny; low 40s)

Keys: Every game the Colts have been involved in has been a one-possession game. The same applies to the Steelers in four of their seven games. I suppose it applies to a lot of teams in a parody-driven league, but the Colts bring it to another level. Every game? This is tale of two teams on both ends of mediocre. The Colts are a tweak away from being a serious contender; the Steelers are already there defensively, but have no offense to speak of. Speaking of the defense, the Steelers strengths lie on the defensive line; it just so happens the Colts offensive line is elite. There’s a reason the opening lines ran from -1 to PK to +1: These teams match up well and their point differentials are only separated by 0.3 ppg. In this particular game, the Steelers home field advantage is negated by the Colts edge in talent. Besides, the Steelers are almost always home. I’ve been riding the Colts for most of the season and I’m not stopping now. * = IND COVER



Tennessee Titans 4-4 (+4) @ Carolina Panthers 4-3 (41.5): Panthers 23-20

Sunday, 1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Sunny; high 50s)


Keys: The Titans went to Ryan Tannehill in the middle of the game against the Broncos three weeks ago and he hasn’t lost a start since (2-0). In fact, besides the Week 1 43-point outburst against what would become the same old Cleveland Browns, the Titans averaged 13.8 ppg under Marcus Mariota; Tennessee averages 25 ppg under Tannehill. If the Titans could consistently score 25 ppg they’d be hard to beat considering their defense is ranked in the top-10 in points allowed (4th), yards allowed (9th) and forced TO (9th). The Panthers are ball hawks, too, ranking 3rd in the NFL in takeaways, but statistically the Panthers look like the Titans would if you averaged Tennessee’s offense and defensive stats together. So what gives with Carolina laying four points? For starters, the Titans are on the road and don’t have MVP-candidate Christian McCaffery, but the spread is more a reflection the level of competition as the Panthers have faced a much tougher schedule. 
 


Detroit Lions QB Matthew Stafford is quietly having one of the best seasons of his career, which is custom in Detroit.


Detroit Lions 3-3-1 (+2) @ Oakland Raiders 3-4 *(50.5): Raiders 28-27

Sunday, 4:05 PM, Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, CA (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)

Keys: The Lions rush for about the same amount of yards (96.9 ypg) the Raiders give up (92.9 ypg), and vice versa. The problem is the Raiders rush for over 130 ypg, so the Lions could have their hands full if they can’t get off to a quick start or they don’t score every time they have the ball. That might not be difficult because the Raiders defense is atrocious and the Lions have high quality talent at the skill positions led by Matthew Stafford. The Lions defense is atrocious, too, hence the 50.5-point game total. At least the Raiders play the run well, and the Lions don’t do anything well on defense, so Oakland should be able to control the clock with rookie sensation Josh Jacobs, and eventually the game. * = OVER



*Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-5 (+6.5) @ Seattle Seahawks 6-2 (51.5): Seahawks 24-23

Sunday, 4:05 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: Mostly cloudy; mid-50s)

Keys: These are two interesting teams. According to Pro Football Reference, using point differential analytics, the overachieving Seahawks should be 4-4 and the underachieving Buccaneers should be 3-4. Take home message: The Seahawks have been lucky. Perhaps until now. The loss of Seahawks center Justin Britt is huge, but the name of this game is TOs. The Buccaneers are 30th in the league in TOs thanks to Jameis Winston, and the Seahawks are 5th in takeaways. The Seahawks are also 5th in TOs, so it’ll be interesting to see if the Buccaneers, ranked 7th in takeaways themselves, can get Seattle to cough it up. Britt’s absence comes into play most there, besides weakening an already weak offensive line. If Winston has his contacts in and throws it to the guys white and red he’ll be connecting with arguably the best WR corps in the NFL; if he throws it to the Seahawks it won’t matter how many offensive lineman Seattle loses. Speaking of WR, Josh Gordon just went from MA to WA, where the hash flows a little heavier. Good luck, Flash. * = TB COVER



Cleveland Browns 2-5 (-3) @ Denver Broncos 2-6 (39): Browns 20-13
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Partly Sunny; low 50s)
Keys: The Browns are two losses away from being on to 2020, because they’re the 12th seed in the AFC now and 2.5 games back from the 8th seed. Even one more loss and a win by the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans would put them 3.5 games back with only eight games remaining. The Broncos seem to be in the same mess, but a bounce here and there and Denver might be 5-3. Besides, most of Denver’s issues can be attributed to head coach Vic Fangio’s really old coaching style and Joe Flacco. It’s unfortunate, because the Broncos misfortunes have sullied and otherwise amazing performance by the defense so far this season (8th points allowed; 4th yards allowed). The bottom line is the Browns are backed against a wall and the Broncos had already given up when they traded Emmanuel Sanders, but now Joe Flacco is on the IR. Wait, is that a bad thing?



*Green Bay Packers 7-1 (-3.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers 3-5 (47): Packers 28-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM Stub Hub Field, Carson, CA (Weather: Sunny; high 70s)
Keys: The Chargers are one of the more frustrating teams in the NFL and have been for quite some time. Besieged by major injuries over the past few years, things got worse when the Chargers relocated to Los Angeles by way of Carson, CA, where they’ve toiled in obscurity for the past few seasons. You might not think it’s any big deal, but imagine not having a home for a season? Now imagine several seasons. The Packers are literally the opposite, having resided in the Green Bay area since the inception of the NFL 100 years ago. The fans “own” the team and would fill Lambeau Field if the Packers were 1-7. Aaron Rodgers kind of looks like his MVP version again, and mostly without Davante Adams, who could be back this week. You could attribute that to the youthful injection of new head coach Matt LaFleur or the best running game and defense the Packers have had in years, with the Smith Bros. setting the edges. Speaking of edges, the Packers great tackles (David Bakhtiari & Bryan Bulaga) bookend an offensive line that likely won’t let Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram get much done. * = GB COVER

  Bill Belichick loves Baltimore, Maryland. Can't you tell?



New England Patriots 8-0 (-3.5) @ Baltimore Ravens 5-2 (45): Patriots 27-20

Sunday, 8:20 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Clear; high 30s) 


Keys: I’m not sure there’s been a better match up yet in 2019. The Patriots come in with the top defense in the NFL (1st points & yards allowed and takeaways), in history as a matter of fact, and if they beat the Ravens in Baltimore the well-deserved chatter of a weak first-half schedule will begin to subside. That’s because the Ravens are the 2nd-ranked offense (points & yards allowed) and rank 5th in TOs. The Patriots offense has struggled mightily, despite being the top scoring team in the NFL, but luckily for New England these Ravens are nothing on defense like the Patriots have faced in the past. Baltimore still ranks 16th in points and yards allowed, and 3rd in rush yards allowed, meaning Tom Brady is going to have to step back and throw it at some point. That shouldn’t be an issue, because the Ravens don’t get after the QB. The Patriots do (1st sacks), however, but they need to worry more about containing Lamar Jackson than sacking him. Therein lies the key: Lamar Jackson. This is the Ravens chance to prove they’re the class of the AFC at home, but the Patriots are 6-2 ATS this season, and one of those losses includes a back door cover attained via blocked punt return for a TD and a Jarrett Stidham pick-six in mop up duty. Love ‘em or hate ‘em, the Patriots rake. Go with Bill Belichick returning home against the young QB, where mobility is nullified by a historically-great defense.



Dallas Cowboys 4-3 (-7) @ *New York Giants 2-6 (48): Cowboys 28-24
Monday, 8:15 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Clear; low 40s)

Keys: The Giants have now lost two one-possession games in a row, and one could argue pretty convincingly the Giants could be 4-4. If someone told you at mid-season the Giants would be a half game behind the Cowboys in the loss column led by Daniel Jones you’d think they were crazy. Maybe I am for diving so deep into this hypothetical. The point is don’t be fooled by these team’s records or by what people have told you about either of these teams. The Giants are better than you think they are and the Cowboys are worse. Dallas' entire offensive line is questionable, too. I'm not kidding. The Cowboys are 6-4 in their last 10 games at the Giants, and have scored 30+ points in four of those contests. Dallas averages 27.1 ppg (7th) this season and that includes a recent three-game losing streak in which they only averaged 22 ppg. The Giants have the talent on offense to catch an underwhelming Cowboys defense off guard, but probably only on the order of covering. * = NYG COVER



Week 9 Byes: Atlanta Falcons, Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Rams, New Orleans Saints


Stay tuned for Tuesday's Gone: Week 9: #NFL Game Reviews coming Wednesday!