2019 NFL SEASON
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Tuesday's Gone: Week 5 #NFL Game Reviews
2019 NFL SEASON WEEK 4:
9-6 .600 (WINS); 8-7 .533 (ATS); 10-5 .667 (O/U)
2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:
46-31-1 .597 (WINS); 41-35-2 .541 (ATS); 48-29-1
.613 (O/U)
WEEK 5 TOP 5 GAMES:
4-1 (.750)
TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:
15-9-1 (.625)
Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis
based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points
against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA);
Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd);
Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S);
Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All
images from Google with permission to reuse without license* Statistical
sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football
Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures
are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider
NEW
TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON
<
Drake voice >
"TOP
5 TOP 5 TOP 5"
Los Angeles Rams QB Jared Goff hasn't looked good this season, despite the gaudy numbers.
*Los
Angeles Rams 3-1 (+1.5)
@ Seattle Seahawks 3-1 (49):
Seahawks
27-24 Seahawks
30-29
Thursday,
4:25 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather:
Clear; mid-60s)
Keys:
Russell
Wilson has been running for his life so far in 2019, but it's the
Rams offensive line that ranks as one of the worst in the NFL in 2019
according to ProFootballFocus.
That could explain why Jared
Goff (6
TDs/6 INTs)
has looked like trash through four weeks, but according to The
Ringer, it could be his tiny hands. Both the Rams and Seahawks
possess great defensive fronts that get after the QB (10
& 9 sacks, respectively),
so these teams could rely heavily upon the run game, something only
the Seahawks have succeeded in implementing and
stopping
so far in 2019. Seattle isn't getting much respect from Las Vegas
here, but the truth is Seattle isn't that dominant at home anymore.
Considering the Rams look worse by the week, that weird win against
the Drew
Brees-less New Orleans Saints notwithstanding, and the Seahawks
are trying to keep pace in the NFC West while trying to get right at
home, look for the Seahawks to do just that on the short week by
taking advantage of an overrated Rams team licking their wounds. *
= OVER
If
you had the Rams covering you were pumped about that failed late 4Q
two-point conversion, but this game hit the over by the 13:37 mark of
the 4Q and that's what we're here for.
Arizona
Cardinals 0-3-1
(+3.5)
v. Cincinnati Bengals 0-4
(47.5):
Bengals
24-21 Cardinals
26-23
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather:
50% rain; low 70s)
Keys: Wow
this game should be awful. The weather is supposed to be an issue,
both offenses struggle and both defenses more than struggle.
Considering the Bengals get nearly three points just for being home,
it seems the bookmakers have as much faith in a lousy team led by a
5’9” rookie as they do one led by a much taller nine-year
veteran. With Terrell Suggs possibly missing from an already weak LB
crew, it’s now or never for Joe Mixon.
Kyler
Murray got the first win of his career and that's about where the
interest in this game ends.
Buffalo
Bills 3-1 (+3.5)@
Tennessee Titans 2-2
(38.5):
Titans
23-17 Bills
14-7
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather:
60% storms; low 80s)
Keys: The
Titans will want to run it, but the Bills elite safeties won’t
allow the explosive run. The Titans might try to throw it, but Marcus
Mariota hasn’t has a ton of success doing that, so then, well, I
refer you to my first statement. Mariota hasn’t turned the ball
over once this season, so that’s bound to change. The problem is
the Bills offense likely won’t be able to do anything with any
potential TOs, and that’s with
Josh
Allen, who could be on the sidelines. The Bills start to back to
Earth as the calendar turns to October.
The
defensive battle we all expected was even more so of one than
expected.
Chicago
Bears 3-1 (-5)
@ Oakland Raiders 2-2 (40.5):
Bears
17-13 Raiders
24-21
Sunday,
1:00PM, Tottenham Stadium,
London, England (Weather:
50% rain; mid-50s)
Keys:
These
teams have three things in common: They both possess terrible
offenses, they both lost to the Minnesota Vikings and they’re both
better teams with Khalil Mack. No one has any home field advantage
here so one assumes the Bears defense will simply devour the Raiders
offense, but then what happens when the Bears offense takes the
“pitch”? Oh boy…
The
Raiders are suddenly 3-2 and just beat the team they traded Khalil
Mack to and without Mack having much of an impact. If the Raiders can
beat the Cowboys in the Super Bowl and don't lose their court battle
to pay Antonio Brown maybe Gruden is the genius and we're all the
idiots. See what I did there.
The
New Orleans Saints haven't skipped a beat without Drew Brees.
*Tampa
Bay Buccaneers 2-2
(+3.5)
@ New Orleans Saints 3-1 (47):
Bucs
27-23 Saints
31-24
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather:
Indoors)
Keys: The
Buccaneers are beginning to right the ship, but the Saints boat
doesn’t seem to rock no matter hard you shake it, so long as Sean
Payton is steering. Teddy Bridgewater looks awful, but Alvin Kamara
and the Saints offensive line doesn’t. The Bucs limitations on
defense will hinge on Shaq Barrett’s availability. The
Saints defense has flashed brilliance, but has been inconsistent, and
the inconsistency has come in an every-other-game pattern...guess who
suffocated the Cowboys last week? If Jameis Winston has any time in
the pocket and limits the mistakes these Buccaneers WRs should torch
these Saints CBs, even with Marcus Williams roaming.
*
= TB cover
Well
the Bucs limited the mistakes, but Jameis Winston was hit eight times
and sacked six, so he clearly had no time in the pocket, or at least
not enough time to cover.
Minnesota
Vikings 2-2
(-5.5)
@ New York Giants 2-2 (44):
Vikings
21-17 Vikings
28-10
Sunday,
1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather:
Partly Sunny; low 70s)
Keys: Both
of these teams are probably surprised to be 2-2, but the Giants will
likely be back to the losing side of things after facing one of the
league’s best defenses. The only question is whether the Vikings
will cover, because the Minnesota offense is stuck in their feelings,
stemming from an identity crisis perpetuated by Kirk Cousins. You
like that?
I
guess I had no faith in Kirk Cousins and I got clowned for it. Except
for the fact I nailed the total score.
New
York Jets 0-3
(+13.5)
@ Philadelphia Eagles 2-2 (44):
Eagles
27-13 Eagles
31-6
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather:
Cloudy; mid-60s)
Keys: The
Eagles could easily be 4-0 if not for a few dozen
drops
and the Jets are one of the worst teams in the league, I don’t care
if they have Le’Veon Bell or not. The fact the Eagles
2-2
and the defense is largely to blame for that because the offense is
missing their best weapons and still averaging over 27 ppg, I’d
expect the Eagles defense to beat up on the Jets, and if DeSean
Jackson is back, and not limited, Philadelphia could easily cover
this spread and the over almost on their own.
The
Eagles took care of business at home against the hapless Jets and we
took care of business with the money line, spread and O/U.
*Baltimore
Ravens 2-2
(-3.5)
@ Pittsburgh Steelers 1-3 (44.5):
Ravens
24-21 Ravens
26-23
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather:
70% rain; mid-70s)
Keys: A
glimpse into the future of this rivalry, a cooled-off Lamar Jackson
comes into Pittsburgh to face a red-hot defensive front that just
sacked Andy Dalton eight times. Ok, that was likely an outlier, and
Dalton is no Jackson, but it’s worth mentioning. Most NFL games are
won in the trenches, but it couldn’t be more evident in this game
between the Ravens offensive line and the Steelers defensive front.
The Ravens defense is not as advertised, especially the backfield
with Jimmy Smith out, but the Steelers don’t trust Mason Rudolph to
throw it downfield anyway, so what difference does it make? The
Steelers are banged up at key skill positions on offense, so if the
Ravens are going to get back on track it’ll be against these
Steelers on the road. *
= PIT COVER
The
Steelers are down to their 3rd string QB after Mason Rudolph was hit
in the chin and unintentionally KO'ed by Earl Watson, which
overshadowed a great AFC North battle that PFM nailed across the
board.
The
New England Patriots defense has only allowed 6.3 ppg this season,
which has helped the Patriots struggling offense.
New
England Patriots 4-0 (-15.5)
@ Washington Hogskins 0-4
(43):
Patriots
24-6 Patriots
33-7
Sunday,
1:00 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather:
Cloudy; mid-70s)
Keys: Now
Patriots future HOF kicker Stephen Ghostkowski is on the IR. There
isn’t much to say about this game besides take the under and the
Patriots money line (-1200). If you like the 15.5 points, take
the points. If you want to tease it, double your money with minimal
effort. You get the point. Look for me around the 50-yard line
laughing at Jay Gruden in a bacon tank top. Seriously.
I
was actually at this game and after Washington scored first and New
England's new kicker Mike Nugent missed his first PAT, the
entire crowd of Patriots fans went silent in the first quarter. The
Patriots then rattled off 33 unanswered points, including two
chip-shot FGs and three PATs from Mikey Nugs.
Jacksonville
Jaguars 2-2
(+3.5)
@ Carolina Panthers 2-2 (41):
Panthers
23-20 Panthers
34-27
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather:
Mostly cloudy; high 70s)
Keys: The
numbers are dead on here meaning I personally want nothing to do with
the game or Minshew Mania, which is capable of anything with the
power of that mustache. Imagine this kid in November? Kyle Allen will
continue to audition for Carolina’s future against a very good
Jaguars defense that will be without Jaylen Ramsey again. Meanwhile,
the Panthers defense quietly remains one of the better defenses in
the NFC. Look for Christian McCaffrey to torch the Jaguars LBs,
giving the narrow win to the Panthers.
A
battle between two very good defenses put up 61 points and 952 total
yards. Christain McCaffrey is quickly becoming the RB it's getting
hard to ignore, which is shocking in the sense that you would expect
the NFL to be pushing this guy to be a household name with all of
their marketing might. Minshew Mania couldn't pull off any magic this
time, despite the opportunity, but if you took the money line or the
O/U you love me.
Atlanta
Falcons 1-3
(+5)
@ Houston Texans 2-2 (48.5):
Texans
27-21 Texans
52-32
Sunday,
1:00 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather:
Indoors)
Keys: This
should be a preview of the Super Bowl considering the talent on both
teams, yet these might be two of the most inconsistent and
poorly-coached teams in the NFL, hence the underachieving. It’s
funny, despite Houston’s inconsistency they’re 2-2 and average
19.5 ppg while allowing 19.5 ppg. Anyway, don’t be surprised if
both of these coaches are fired by the end of the season.
Matt
Ryan accounted for four TDs and the Falcons scored 32 points and were
still beat badly. That's probably wrap for Dan Quinn, because Quinn
is supposed to be the defensive expert. Perhaps it was the Legion of
Boom after all, much like the Falcons offense likely barely needs an
offensive coach at this point. This game was all about the Texans
offense, however, as Deshaun Watson's 473 total yards and 5 TD
passes, four to Will Fuller, stole the show.
Denver
Broncos 0-4 (+6.5)
@ Los Angeles Chargers 2-2 (44.5):
Chargers
24-16 Broncos
20-13
Sunday,
4:05 PM, Stub Hub Field,
Carson, CA (Weather: Sunny;
low 80s)
Keys:
The
Broncos are really bad and their coach is an outdated relic from the
1970s who doesn’t like music in the locker room. Huh?
Which came first, the chicken or the egg? Apparently that’s his
style, and it’s clearly not working. Joe Flacco should take some of
the blame, too, but Vic Fangio is past his time. The Broncos have
played in four games, which have produced eight scores. Five of them
have involved the numbers 24 and 16, so that’s what we’re going
with.
What
the hell is wrong with the Chargers?! Los Angeles lost the game with
five minutes remaining in the 1Q and only managed 254 total yards and
three TOs (two Philip Rivers INTs). Melvin unceremonious return
produced 31 yards on 12 carries.
The
Dallas Cowboys came out of the gates like gangbusters, but things
have slowed down, especially the ground game.
*Green
Bay Packers
3-1
(+3.5)
@ Dallas
Cowboys 3-1
(47):
Packers
23-21 Packers
34-24
Sunday,
4:25 PM, AT&T Stadium,
Arlington, TX (Weather:
Indoors)
Keys: The
Packers are an interesting team in that they could be 1-3 or they
could be the best team in the NFC. The Cowboys were that team until
the Saints beat them 12-10 on Sunday without Drew Brees. Now they
face the Packers equally-stout defense (17.5
ppg) with half of their
offensive line either out or questionable and Michael Gallup limited
at best. Green Bay could be without Davante Adams, meaning they could
lean heavily upon the ground game, something they haven’t been able
to do yet. The opposite could be said for Dallas, who could’ve had
a field day on the ground had it not been for their offensive line
issues. Having said all that, there’s something up with these
Cowboys since Amari Coopers’ MRI, and those aforementioned line
issues could be big trouble.
*
= GB COVER
The
Cowboys made one of the great second half partial comebacks of recent
memory, as Dallas was down 31-3 with 3:30 left in the 3Q from which
point the Cowboys outscored Green Bay 21-3. No matter, the game was
already won and the over was a lock by beginning of the 4Q.
*Indianapolis
Colts 2-2
(+11)
@ Kansas City Chiefs 4-0 (56.5):
Chiefs
28-27 Colts
19-13
Sunday,
8:20 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather:
Clear; high 50s)
Keys: This
game largely depends on two things: Can the Colts pass rush get to
Patrick Mahomes, and actually make it effective, and will TY Hilton
be able to go? If neither answer is ‘yes’, then the Colts are
toast, but if even one of those things works out then the Colts could
easily cover the 11 points. Hell, if the Colts pass rush got to
Mahomes I would take the Colts on the money line (-600),
but pressure hasn't stopped the reigning MVP so far, who seems to
deflect pressure as easily as he flicks 50-yard seeds. *
= IND COVER
The
game worked out exactly as I predicted it would. Except for the
score. The pass rush made Patrick Mahomes' life a nightmare, hitting
him eight times and sacking him four. TY Hilton provided just enough
of a decoy to allow the Colts to run for 180 yards on a whopping 45
carries. The Colts kept the Chiefs off the field (37:15 TOP) and that
was the key to the game, besides what seemed like half the Chiefs
team going down to injury during the game, including Mahomes.
*Cleveland
Browns 2-2
(+3.5)
@ San Francisco 49ers 3-0 (46.5):
49ers
27-23 49ers
31-3
Monday,
8:15 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather:
Clear; mid-50s)
Keys: The
Browns travel to the Bay Area for their third prime time game of the
short season, this time for a MNF showdown between the most overly
hyped offense in the NFL and the quietest great defense in the NFL
(18 ppg).
The 49ers have the Browns beat in essentially every phase of the game
besides household names, except where it matters most, the coaching
staff, where Kyle Shanahan is far more known than Freddie Soup
Kitchens. The Browns best chance is probably feeding Nick Chubbs, but
the 49ers have some of the highest graded LBs in the league. Look for
the Browns to come back to Earth against an especially rested 49ers
team after their victory against a clearly overrated Ravens defense.
* =
OVER
Baker
Mayfield had the worst game of his career so far (QBR of 1.0!) and
the 49ers perhaps played their best. If Robbie Gould hadn't missed
three FGs and the Browns weren't inept the over would've been a lock.
Alas, the Browns had 180 total yards, nine first downs and four TOs,
including three Mayfield INTs (one via deflection). It's panic time
in Cleveland, but they're used to that.
BYEs:
Detroit Lions; Miami Dolphins
Stay
tuned for Week 6: #NFL Game Predictions (w/
spreads & analysis) coming Thursday
& Saturday!
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.