2019 NFL SEASON
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Week 5: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
THURSDAY NIGHT EDITION
THURSDAY NIGHT EDITION
2019 NFL SEASON WEEK 4:
9-6 .600 (WINS); 7-7-1 .500 (ATS); 10-5 .667 (O/U)
2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:
37-25-1 .597 (WINS); 33-28-2 .541 (ATS); 38-24-1
.613 (O/U)
WEEK 4 TOP 5 GAMES:
4-1 (.750)
TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:
11-8-1 (.579)
Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis
based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points
against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA);
Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd);
Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S);
Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All
images from Google with permission to reuse without license* Statistical
sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football
Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures
are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider
NEW
TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON
<
Drake voice >
"TOP
5 TOP 5 TOP 5"
Pro
Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week for either the spread OR O/U denoted by an asterisk (*). Roll with our Top 5
and watch the money pile up all season!
Los Angeles Rams QB Jared Goff hasn't looked good this season, despite the gaudy numbers.
Los
Angeles Rams 3-1 (+1.5)
@ Seattle Seahawks 3-1 (49):
Seahawks
27-24
Thursday,
4:25 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather:
Clear; mid-60s)
Keys:
Russell
Wilson has been running for his life so far in 2019, but it's the
Rams offensive line that ranks as one of the worst in the NFL in 2019
according to ProFootballFocus.
That could explain why Jared
Goff (6
TDs/6 INTs)
has looked like trash through four weeks, but according to The
Ringer, it could be his tiny hands. Both the Rams and Seahawks
possess great defensive fronts that get after the QB (10
& 9 sacks, respectively),
so these teams could rely heavily upon the run game, something only
the Seahawks have succeeded in implementing and
stopping so far in 2019. Seattle isn't getting much respect from Las
Vegas here, but the truth is Seattle isn't that dominant at home
anymore. Considering the Rams look worse by the week, that weird win
against the Drew
Brees-less New Orleans Saints notwithstanding, and the Seahawks
are trying to keep pace in the NFC West while trying to get right at
home, look for the Seahawks to do just that on the short week by
taking advantage of an overrated Rams team licking their wounds.
Arizona
Cardinals 0-3-1
(+3.5)
v. Cincinnati Bengals 0-4
(47.5):
Bengals
24-21
Sunday,
1:00
PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather:
50% rain;
low 70s)
Keys: Wow
this game should be awful. The weather is supposed to be an issue,
both offenses struggle and both defenses more than struggle.
Considering the Bengals get nearly three points just for being home,
it seems the bookmakers have as much faith in a lousy team led by a
5’9” rookie as they do one led by a much
taller nine-year
veteran. With
Terrell Suggs possibly missing from an already weak LB crew, it’s
now or never for Joe Mixon.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather:
60%
storms;
low 80s)
Keys: The
Titans will want to run it, but the Bills elite safeties won’t
allow the explosive run. The Titans might try to throw it, but Marcus
Mariota hasn’t has a ton of success doing that, so then, well, I
refer you to my first statement. Mariota hasn’t turned the ball
over once this season, so that’s bound to change. The problem is
the Bills offense likely won’t be able to do anything with any
potential TOs, and that’s with
Josh Allen, who could be on the sidelines. The Bills start to come back to
Earth as the calendar turns to October.
Chicago
Bears
3-1
(-5)
@
Oakland Raiders 2-2
(40.5):
Bears
17-13
Keys:
These
teams have three things in common: They both possess terrible
offenses, they both lost to the Minnesota Vikings and they’re both
better teams with Khalil
Mack. No one has any home field advantage here so one assumes the
Bears defense will simply devour the Raiders offense, but then what
happens when the Bears offense takes the “pitch”? Oh boy...
The New Orleans Saints haven't skipped a beat without Drew Brees.
Tampa
Bay Buccaneers 2-2
(+3.5)
@ New Orleans Saints 3-1
(47):
Bucs
27-23
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather:
Indoors)
Keys: The
Buccaneers are beginning to right the ship, but the Saints boat
doesn’t seem to rock no matter hard you shake it, so long as Sean
Payton is steering. Teddy Bridgewater looks awful, but Alvin Kamara
and the Saints offensive line doesn’t. The
Bucs limitations on defense will hinge on Shaq Barrett’s availability.
The Saints defense has flashed brilliance, but has been inconsistent,
and the inconsistency has come in an every-other-game pattern...guess
who suffocated the Cowboys last week? If Jameis Winston has any time
in the pocket and limits the mistakes these Buccaneers WRs should
torch these Saints CBs, even with Marcus Williams roaming.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather:
Partly Sunny;
low 70s)
Keys: Both
of these teams are probably surprised to be 2-2, but the Giants will
likely be back to the losing side of things after facing one of the
league’s best defenses. The only question is whether the Vikings
will cover, because the Minnesota offense is stuck in their feelings,
stemming from an identity crisis perpetuated by Kirk Cousins. You
like that?
New
York Jets
0-3
(+13.5)
@ Philadelphia Eagles 2-2
(44):
Eagles
27-13
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather:
Cloudy;
mid-60s)
Keys: The
Eagles could easily be 4-0 if not for a few dozen
drops and the Jets are one of the worst teams in the league, I don’t
care if they have Le’Veon Bell or not. The fact the Eagles
2-2 and the defense is largely to blame for that because the offense
is missing their best weapons and still averaging over 27 ppg, I’d
expect the Eagles defense to beat up on the Jets, and if DeSean
Jackson is back, and not limited, Philadelphia could easily cover this
spread and the over almost on their own.
Baltimore
Ravens 2-2
(-3.5)
@ Pittsburgh Steelers 1-3
(44.5):
Ravens
24-21
Keys: A
glimpse into the future of this rivalry, a cooled-off Lamar Jackson
comes into Pittsburgh to face a red-hot defensive front that just
sacked Andy Dalton eight times. Ok, that was likely an outlier, and
Dalton is no Jackson, but it’s worth mentioning. Most NFL games are
won in the trenches, but it couldn’t be more evident in this game
between the Ravens offensive line and the Steelers defensive front.
The Ravens defense is not as advertised, especially the backfield
with Jimmy Smith out, but the Steelers don’t trust Mason Rudolph to
throw it downfield anyway, so what difference does it make? The
Steelers are banged up at key skill positions on offense, so if the
Ravens are going to get back on track it’ll be against these
Steelers on the road.
The New England Patriots defense has only allowed 6.3 ppg this season, which has helped the Patriots struggling offense.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather:
Cloudy;
mid-70s)
Keys: Now
Patriots future HOF kicker Stephen Ghostkowski is on the IR. There
isn’t much to say about this game besides take the under and the
Patriots money line (-1200). If you like the 15.5
points, take the points. If you want to tease it, double your money
with minimal effort. You get the point. Look for me around the
50-yard line laughing at Jay Gruden in a bacon tank top. Seriously.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather:
Mostly
cloudy;
high 70s)
Keys: The
numbers are dead on here meaning I personally want nothing to do with
the game or Minshew Mania, which is capable of anything with the
power of that mustache. Imagine this kid in November? Kyle Allen will
continue to audition for Carolina’s future against a very good
Jaguars defense that will be without Jaylen Ramsey again. Meanwhile,
the Panthers defense quietly remains one of the better defenses in
the NFC. Look for Christian McCaffrey to torch the Jaguars LBs,
giving the narrow win to the Panthers
Atlanta
Falcons
1-3
(+5)
@ Houston Texans 2-2
(48.5):
Texans
27-21
Sunday,
1:00 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather:
Indoors)
Keys: This
should be a preview of the Super Bowl considering the talent on both
teams, yet these might be two of the most inconsistent and
poorly-coached teams in the NFL, hence the underachieving.
It’s
funny, despite Houston’s inconsistency they’re 2-2 and average
19.5 ppg while allowing 19.5 ppg. Anyway, don’t
be surprised if both of these coaches are fired by the end of the
season.
Denver
Broncos 0-4
(+6.5)
@ Los Angeles Chargers 2-2
(44.5):
Chargers
24-16
Sunday,
4:05
PM, Stub Hub Field, Carson, CA (Weather:
Sunny; low 80s)
Keys:
The
Broncos are really bad and their coach is an outdated relic from the
1970s who doesn’t like music in the locker room. Huh?
Which came first, the chicken or the egg? Apparently that’s his
style, and it’s clearly not working. Joe Flacco should take some of
the blame, too, but Vic Fangio is past his time. The Broncos have
played in four games, which have produced eight scores. Five of them
have involved the numbers 24 and 16, so that’s what we’re going
with.
The Dallas Cowboys came out of the gates like gangbusters, but things have slowed down, especially the ground game.
Green
Bay Packers
3-1
(+3.5)
@ Dallas Cowboys
3-1
(47):
Green
Bay 23-21
Keys: The
Packers are an interesting team in that they could be 1-3 or they
could be the best team in the NFC. The Cowboys were that team until
the Saints beat them 12-10 on Sunday without Drew Brees. Now they
face the Packers equally-stout defense (17.5
ppg)
with half of their offensive line either out or questionable and
Michael Gallup limited at best. Green Bay could be without Davante
Adams, meaning they could lean heavily upon the ground game,
something they haven’t been able to do yet. The opposite could be
said for Dallas, who could’ve had a field day on the ground had it
not been for their offensive line issues. Having said all that,
there’s something up with these Cowboys since Amari Coopers’ MRI,
and those aforementioned line issues could be big trouble.
Sunday,
8:20
PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather:
Clear;
high 50s)
Keys: This
game largely depends on two things: Can the Colts pass rush get to
Patrick Mahomes, and actually make it effective, and will TY Hilton
be able to go? If neither answer is ‘yes’, then the Colts are
toast, but if even one of those things works out then the Colts could
easily cover the 11 points. Hell, if the Colts pass rush got to
Mahomes I would take the Colts on the money line (-600),
but pressure hasn't stopped the reigning MVP so far, who seems to
deflect pressure as easily as he flicks 50-yard seeds.
Cleveland
Browns 2-2
(+3.5)
@ San Francisco 49ers 3-0
(46.5):
49ers
27-23
Monday,
8:15
PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather:
Clear;
mid-50s)
Keys: The
Browns travel to the Bay Area for their third prime time game of the
short season, this time for a MNF showdown between the most overly
hyped offense in the NFL and the quietest great defense in the NFL
(18
ppg).
The 49ers have the Browns beat in essentially every phase of the game
besides household names, except where it matters most, the coaching
staff, where Kyle Shanahan is far more kmown than Freddie Soup Kitchens. The Browns best chance is probably feeding Nick Chubbs, but
the 49ers have some of the highest graded LBs in the league. Look for
the Browns to come back to Earth against an especially rested 49ers
team after their victory against a clearly overrated Ravens defense.
BYEs:
Detroit Lions; Miami Dolphins
Stay
tuned for Tuesday's Gone: Week 5 #NFL Game Reviews coming Wednesday!
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.