2019 NFL SEASON
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Tuesday's Gone: Week 6 #NFL Game Reviews
2019 NFL SEASON WEEK 4:
10-4 .714 (WINS); 8-6 .571 (ATS); 6-6-2 .500 (O/U)
2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:
56-35-1 .615 (WINS); 49-41-2 .544 (ATS); 54-35-3
.607 (O/U)
WEEK 5 TOP 5 GAMES:
3-2 (.600)
TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:
18-11-1 (.621)
Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis
based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points
against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA);
Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd);
Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S);
Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All
images from Google with permission to reuse without license* Statistical
sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football
Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures
are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider
NEW
TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON
<
Drake voice >
"TOP
5 TOP 5 TOP 5"
The only chance the Giants have to beat Tom Brady and the Patriots is via the Giants defensive line. Sound familiar?
Miami
Dolphins 1-0 (-17)
@
New England Patriots 1-1 (42): Patriots 30-10 Patriots 35-14
Keys: Giants
rookie QB Daniel Jones comes into bitter territory Thursday Night
against one of the best defenses the NFL has seen in a few years across
from the best QB the NFL has ever seen. No Saquon Barkley. No
Wayne Gallman. No Sterling Shepard. No Evan Engram. No problem, right?
Wrong. The Giants enter Foxborough with a rookie QB, a 3rd-string rookie
RB and one of the worst centers in the NFL to go along with one of the
worst collective defenses in the NFL. The Giants have no chance to win.
What they do have is a chance to cover, and that would be up to the
Giants defensive front, the only semblance of a bright spot on their
team not named Saquon or maybe Jones, plays lights out against a porous
Patriots offensive line already suffering major attrition. I'm sure Bill
Belichick has already thought of this. Patriots fans will be hoping for
an early Jones scratch so that Eli Manning can start, and ultimately
lose, which would likely mean Manning would retire with a losing record (116-117). Revenge is a dish best served on a SB XLII commemorative plate.
The Patriots forced four TOs, including three Daniel Jones INTs, and that about sums up the game. As far as future games, the Patriots could be f*cked.
Tennessee Titans 2-3
(+6) @ Denver
Broncos 1-4 (40.5): Titans 23-17 Broncos 16-0
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Sunny; high 60s)
*Dallas Cowboys 3-2
(-7) @ New York
Jets 0-4 (44.5): Cowboys 27-13 Jets 24-22
Sunday, 4:25 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: 20% rain; low 60s)
Keys: I can't recall a 1-4 Steelers teams in my life, let alone one that rushes for fewer than 68 ypg. I can recall, however, when the Steelers have been down to their 3rd-string QB, and it's never looked good. Considering they have to travel across country to play a team with plenty of fire power, despite what they show you. The key will be keeping the pocket clean enough for the statuesque Philip Rivers. Chargers win, but won't cover because they're 1-3-1 ATS despite being favored in every game and are the most aggravting team in the NFL.
The Chargers are officially a terrible football team. Forget the talent. Forget the injury excuses. Forget the assumption they're anything like the 2018 12-4 team. The homeless Chargers are awful and it's becoming more evident by the week that Philip Rivers (2 INTs; 1 FUM; 10 PD) has too many kids. The Steelers led 24-0 at the start of the 4Q, which meant that Los Angeles' 17-unanswered 4Q points was just a kick in the balls to all the game total under bettors. By the way, the game also pushed the spread, too. I can't remember the last time I saw a game push both the spread and the O/U at once.
Detroit Lions 2-1-1 (+4)
@ Green Bay Packers 4-1 *(47): Packers 24-21 Packers 23-22
Monday, 1:00 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Cloudy; low 40s)
Keys: You'd be hard-pressed to find a match up between two more mediocre teams with a better collective winning percentage (70+%) than these NFC North residents. One could argue the Lions were one poorly-timed TO call v. Arizona and one or two plays against KC from being 4-0, while the Packers could easily be 5-0 or 0-5. Green Bay destroyed the Cowboys last Sunday night, before nearly letting them come back, so they get a long-ish week to prepare for the Lions, but not as much as the Lions had to prepare for Green Bay coming off their bye week. The Lions are so historically bad I doubt there are any positive bye week numbers to correlate to the Lions winning on MNF, so suffice it to say the Packers are at home against the Lions with a healthy Aaron Rodgers, which is about all you need to know. * = UNDER
Word on the street is Clete Blakeman's boys are going to the cashier at an alarming rate to cash in on game's their homie was officiating. It would seem something is up, because a terrible 4Q hands-to-the-face call on Dre Flowers led to a Packers first down, and ultimately the game-winning chip-shot FG, in what otherwise would have likely been a Packers punt situation to seal a Lions victory. The Lions seem to get screwed more than the New Orleans Saints, and on national television, no less. The Packers escaped again, but much like the Seattle Seahawks, remain one of the weakest 5-1 teams in the NFL. Prepare yourself for much more finger pointing and resting bitch face from the football player formerly known as Aaron Rodgers as Green Bay's season inevitably regresses to the mean.
The Patriots forced four TOs, including three Daniel Jones INTs, and that about sums up the game. As far as future games, the Patriots could be f*cked.
Keys: Christian
McCaffrey is making his case for MVP, but he runs into a Bucs team
allowing under 70 ypg so far against some of the best RBs in the league.
This game comes down to Tampa's Bay's explosive offense (29.4 ppg)
v. the Panthers stout defense and whether or not Run CMC can keep it
going. It also comes down to which team will already be thinking about
their respective upcoming vacations, a.k.a. bye weeks.
Holy Jameis Winston. You know it's bad when you see Jameis trending on Twitter at 10:30 am EST. Oh just seven TOs, including five INTs, nothing to see here. Run CMC was held in check, but scored two TDs, including a supposedly electrifying TD run and which he spun several Bucs. I didn't really see it that way, but then again, the only thing I apparently did see was the over.
Holy Jameis Winston. You know it's bad when you see Jameis trending on Twitter at 10:30 am EST. Oh just seven TOs, including five INTs, nothing to see here. Run CMC was held in check, but scored two TDs, including a supposedly electrifying TD run and which he spun several Bucs. I didn't really see it that way, but then again, the only thing I apparently did see was the over.
Seattle Seahawks 4-1 (-1.5) @ Cleveland Browns 2-3 (46.5): Seahawks 28-23 Seahawks 32-28
Sunday,
1:00
PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Sunny; mid-60s)
Keys:
It's the battle of the 6-foot QBs, both equally hyped, but only one
actually deserving of the hype. Russell Wilson is in the middle of a MVP
campaign (12 TDs; 0 INTs), while Baker Mayfield is just trying
to justify being on my television more than the actual games. Wilson
will once again be running for his life, but that's par for the course
at this point. If the Seahawks shut down Nick Chubb and the Browns run
game like they have every other opponent, the Browns could be coming
apart at the seams before midseason. However, if the Browns can get any
play action working these Browns WRs could torch the Seahawks secondary.
Unfortunately, Mayfield is no longer accurate.
Despite the Seahawks not getting a single QB hit on Baker Mayfield, the embattled QB threw three INTs, although not entirely his fault, and ruined another dominating performance from Nick Chubb (122 rushing yards; 2 TDs). In fact, the two teams combined for 325 rushing yards on 62 total carries (5.2 ypr). The Browns continue to turn into a pumpkin as the clock strikes midnight, while the Seahawks improved to the least intimidating 5-1 team in the NFL.
Despite the Seahawks not getting a single QB hit on Baker Mayfield, the embattled QB threw three INTs, although not entirely his fault, and ruined another dominating performance from Nick Chubb (122 rushing yards; 2 TDs). In fact, the two teams combined for 325 rushing yards on 62 total carries (5.2 ypr). The Browns continue to turn into a pumpkin as the clock strikes midnight, while the Seahawks improved to the least intimidating 5-1 team in the NFL.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather:
Sunny; high 60s)
Keys:
Everyone will be glued to this game except for Chicago Bears fans,
becuase the pain of having Mitch Trubisky as their QB over either of
these two MVP-caliber QBs is too much to bear. Of course I'm talking
about the 2017 NFL Draft in which Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson
were taken 10th and 12th, respectively. Trubisky was taken 2nd. Gulp.
The problem the Chiefs had with the Indianapolis Colts last week was
their pass rush and a ball-controlling ground game, something the Texans
are more than capable of. The Chiefs are in a tough spot with injuries
right now, especially in the trenches, and Houston is the last team they
want to face in that position.
It's not perfection, but damn close to it. I'll let my prediction do the talking for me.
It's not perfection, but damn close to it. I'll let my prediction do the talking for me.
It's the return of Bag Man.
Washington
Pigskins 0-5 (-3.5)
@ Miami Dolphins 0-4
(41): Pigskins 20-13 Pigskins 17-16
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather:
30% storms; low 80s)
Keys:
Holy shit. Stay away from this game. One could argue for a rally around
interim head coach Bill Callahan, but one could argue Bill Callahan is
about to burn down what another Gruden built. One could argue the
Dolphins have to win sometime, so why not against a reeling Pigskins
team, but the Dolphins absolutely suck (-34.4 ppg differential).
The Dolphins almost did it. The Pigskins gave up in the 4Q and if not for the other Drake dropping a two-point conversion (it would have failed anyway) this game likely would have ended in a tie (it wouldn't have).
The Dolphins almost did it. The Pigskins gave up in the 4Q and if not for the other Drake dropping a two-point conversion (it would have failed anyway) this game likely would have ended in a tie (it wouldn't have).
Sunday,
1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
(Weather: Indoors)
Keys:
Neither team gives up the run so Dalvin Cook will have his work cut out
for him, but who knows with Jordan Howard, who has fewer than half the
yards Cook does, yet is supposedly the feature RB. One would assume the
Eagles will try to get it down in the air, but that could be tough, too,
because DeSean Jackson is out again. The Vikings could continue the air
assault on the Eagles, however, because Philadelphia is decimated in
the secondary. I like the Eagles to cover but I'm not sure they can beat
this defense in Minnesota. The over seems low one defense is capable of
shutting opponents out while the other is capable of returning fumbles
the other way. * = PHI COVER
I'm sorry folks, I dropped the ball like Kirk Cousins (4 TDs) and the Vikings dropped bombs all over the Eagles depleted secondary (2 PD).
I'm sorry folks, I dropped the ball like Kirk Cousins (4 TDs) and the Vikings dropped bombs all over the Eagles depleted secondary (2 PD).
Sunday,
1:00 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: Sunny; high 80s)
Keys:
These two teams are much more evenly matched than the uniforms or
records would suggest, and much of that has to do with the uncertainty
at QB on both sides of the field. Saints QB Teddy Bridgewater can be
inconsistent and Jaguars rookie QB Garder Minshew can be magical. Still,
the point spread is pretty confusing, and by all accounts, has been bet
in favor of the Jaguars all week. Leonard Fornette could get the run
game going early and set up the play action all day long, or the Saints
secondary could shut the Jaguars down and force them to run the ball,
and Fournette doesn't always do well carrying loads.
You may notice sometimes my predicted score is right on the O/U line, which is my cop-out to say I'm not really sure, so if I hug the line it doesn't look like I was as wrong as I really was. This is one of those games. A game that couldn't gone either way, but likely would stay right around the total for several reasons, but went drastically under and ruined a perfect call.
You may notice sometimes my predicted score is right on the O/U line, which is my cop-out to say I'm not really sure, so if I hug the line it doesn't look like I was as wrong as I really was. This is one of those games. A game that couldn't gone either way, but likely would stay right around the total for several reasons, but went drastically under and ruined a perfect call.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Chance rain; low 60s)
Keys:
Do we really give the Bengals a chance to win? No. Do we give the
Bengals a chance to cover? Maybe. The Ravens had lost two in a row after
starting 2-0, and nearly lost to a Pittsburgh Steelers team using the
3rd-string QB, so expect them to make an example out of the Bengals, who
seem to have a close game-blowout-close game-blow out theme going and
we've come to the blow out portion of the theme.
Computer algorithms placed Baltimore's win probability at 67.6%, after the Bengals opening kickoff return. What disrespect! I guess the algorithms knew the Bengals were who we thought they were, too. Lamar Jackson became the first QB in the modern Super Bowl era to pass for 200+ yards and rush for 150+ yards in a regular season game and the Ravens ended up needing every bit of it. I hesitated at taking 11.5 points because of the divisional aspect combined with the Ravens recent mediocre play, but alas, banked on the Bengals ineptitude. Well it was the Ravens ineptitude, most notably settling for FGs over TDs, that did Baltimore in. Well, from a point-spread perspective, anyway.
Computer algorithms placed Baltimore's win probability at 67.6%, after the Bengals opening kickoff return. What disrespect! I guess the algorithms knew the Bengals were who we thought they were, too. Lamar Jackson became the first QB in the modern Super Bowl era to pass for 200+ yards and rush for 150+ yards in a regular season game and the Ravens ended up needing every bit of it. I hesitated at taking 11.5 points because of the divisional aspect combined with the Ravens recent mediocre play, but alas, banked on the Bengals ineptitude. Well it was the Ravens ineptitude, most notably settling for FGs over TDs, that did Baltimore in. Well, from a point-spread perspective, anyway.
Los Angeles' No. 1 draft pick and $100M man Jared Goff has looked terrible in recent weeks despite gaudy passing numbers.
Sunday,
4:05 PM, Los Angeles Memorial Stadium, Los Angeles, CA (Weather:
Sunny; mid-70s)
Keys:
49ers FB Kyle Juszczyk was injured during MNF and with him went the
49ers offense. Todd Gurley was injured several years ago apparently, and
the Rams offense has been sputtering ever since. Now the two young
teams and futures of the NFC rife with hot young coaching talent take
the field to see who has the bigger brain. The answer is Kyle Shanahan,
but it's the loss of the other Kyle on the 49ers that could really slow
the San Fransisco offense and let these overrated Rams squeak out a win
at home. The only thing standing in their way is one of the best
defenses in the NFL, who happen to match up great with all the Rams
weapons. This is to say nothing of the Rams decimated offensive line and
Goff's less then stable pocket presence under pressure. The 49ers will
lose at some point, but it won't be against these Rams. * = SF COVER
Kyle Shanahan shut his old friend out after the 10-minute mark of the 1Q and the 49ers answered any remaining questions about whether or not they're for real. The Rams, on the other hand, are in trouble. Los Angeles gained only 157 yards 50 total plays, only managed 10 first downs, and Jared Goff, the aforementioned $100M man, had 78 passing yards on 3.3 ypa.
Kyle Shanahan shut his old friend out after the 10-minute mark of the 1Q and the 49ers answered any remaining questions about whether or not they're for real. The Rams, on the other hand, are in trouble. Los Angeles gained only 157 yards 50 total plays, only managed 10 first downs, and Jared Goff, the aforementioned $100M man, had 78 passing yards on 3.3 ypa.
Atlanta
Falcons 1-4
(-2.5)
@ *Arizona Cardinals 1-3-1
(51.5): Cardinals 23-21 Cardinals 34-33
Keys:
The biggest question about this game is why the O/U is 51.5. Both teams
average 20 ppg and allow an average of 29 ppg, so Las Vegas apparently
expects these teams to have breakout offensive performances against each
other despite being incapable of it. I get it, Matt Ryan accounted for
four TDs alone last week and the Cardinals scored 26 points, but I'll be
quick to point out those 26 points were the second highest total of the
season and third highest total didn't come close, while no one expects
four more total TDs out of Matt Ryan for the next month. The Falcons are
1-4 ATS this season, including the only other game they were favored
in; expect more of the same for a Falcons team with one of the worst
offensive lines in the NFL. * = ARZ COVER
The Falcons 17-point comeback, once again led by Matt Ryan (4 TDs), wasn't even the second-most amazing thing that happened in this game. The performance by rookie Kyler Murray (3 TDs) or the rare missed PAT from veteran kicker Matt Bryant in what should have been the game-tying TD took those honors. It's 2019, the year of the kicker...and everyone going crazy. At least your wallet got fat if you took my advise, especially the money line.
The Falcons 17-point comeback, once again led by Matt Ryan (4 TDs), wasn't even the second-most amazing thing that happened in this game. The performance by rookie Kyler Murray (3 TDs) or the rare missed PAT from veteran kicker Matt Bryant in what should have been the game-tying TD took those honors. It's 2019, the year of the kicker...and everyone going crazy. At least your wallet got fat if you took my advise, especially the money line.
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Sunny; high 60s)
Keys:
Who the hell knows what to expect with the Titans week-to-week, but
what we should expect this week is for the Titans secondary to shut down
the Broncos WRs and either make them one-dimensional or force Joe
Flacco to make terrible decisions, which he's really good at. Mariota
stands no chance against Von Miller et al so Derrick Henry could have a day, if he can handle the altitude.
Holy shit the Titans are infuriating. The frustration has moved from the betting public to the Titans fandom because now even they can't deal with Marcus Mariota (2 INTs; 2 SACKS; 9.9 QBR; 9.5 RTG) anymore, who was finally benched for Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill didn't do much better (1 INT; 4 SACKS; 7.9 QBR). The Titans managed 204 total yards in 30:14 (Denver only managed 270 total yards) and also manged to destroy my six-team underdog parlay.
Holy shit the Titans are infuriating. The frustration has moved from the betting public to the Titans fandom because now even they can't deal with Marcus Mariota (2 INTs; 2 SACKS; 9.9 QBR; 9.5 RTG) anymore, who was finally benched for Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill didn't do much better (1 INT; 4 SACKS; 7.9 QBR). The Titans managed 204 total yards in 30:14 (Denver only managed 270 total yards) and also manged to destroy my six-team underdog parlay.
Sunday, 4:25 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: 20% rain; low 60s)
Keys: Sam
Darnold returns from his middle school kissing disease to his winless
Jets team facing a do-or-die Cowboys team with four-fold the talent.
This is the perfect game for Dak Prescott to get his contract stock back
up, but Ezekiel Elliot might struggle with a decimated offensive line
facing a Jets team that only allows fewer than 88 rushing yards per
game. The seven-point spread says more about the reeling Cowboys than it
says about the hapless Jets, so Dallas might want to get their act
together before this 3-0 start slips away into infamy somewhere near the
beaches of Cabo. * = DAL COVER
Gulp. A contested two-point conversion fell short at the goal line with 43 seconds remaining and the Cowboys dropped their third straight game, this time to the lowly 0-4 Jets. Dallas also out-gained New York and didn't turn the ball over. Huh??? Silver lining: Brett Maher kicked one of the longest outdoor FGs in NFL history (62 yards).
Gulp. A contested two-point conversion fell short at the goal line with 43 seconds remaining and the Cowboys dropped their third straight game, this time to the lowly 0-4 Jets. Dallas also out-gained New York and didn't turn the ball over. Huh??? Silver lining: Brett Maher kicked one of the longest outdoor FGs in NFL history (62 yards).
Philip Rivers has looked his age at times this season, which is old in NFL terms.
Pittsburgh Steelers 1-4
(+7) @ Los Angeles Chargers 2-3
(41): Chargers 27-21 Steelers 24-17
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Stub Hub
Field, Carson, CA (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)Keys: I can't recall a 1-4 Steelers teams in my life, let alone one that rushes for fewer than 68 ypg. I can recall, however, when the Steelers have been down to their 3rd-string QB, and it's never looked good. Considering they have to travel across country to play a team with plenty of fire power, despite what they show you. The key will be keeping the pocket clean enough for the statuesque Philip Rivers. Chargers win, but won't cover because they're 1-3-1 ATS despite being favored in every game and are the most aggravting team in the NFL.
The Chargers are officially a terrible football team. Forget the talent. Forget the injury excuses. Forget the assumption they're anything like the 2018 12-4 team. The homeless Chargers are awful and it's becoming more evident by the week that Philip Rivers (2 INTs; 1 FUM; 10 PD) has too many kids. The Steelers led 24-0 at the start of the 4Q, which meant that Los Angeles' 17-unanswered 4Q points was just a kick in the balls to all the game total under bettors. By the way, the game also pushed the spread, too. I can't remember the last time I saw a game push both the spread and the O/U at once.
Monday, 1:00 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Cloudy; low 40s)
Keys: You'd be hard-pressed to find a match up between two more mediocre teams with a better collective winning percentage (70+%) than these NFC North residents. One could argue the Lions were one poorly-timed TO call v. Arizona and one or two plays against KC from being 4-0, while the Packers could easily be 5-0 or 0-5. Green Bay destroyed the Cowboys last Sunday night, before nearly letting them come back, so they get a long-ish week to prepare for the Lions, but not as much as the Lions had to prepare for Green Bay coming off their bye week. The Lions are so historically bad I doubt there are any positive bye week numbers to correlate to the Lions winning on MNF, so suffice it to say the Packers are at home against the Lions with a healthy Aaron Rodgers, which is about all you need to know. * = UNDER
Word on the street is Clete Blakeman's boys are going to the cashier at an alarming rate to cash in on game's their homie was officiating. It would seem something is up, because a terrible 4Q hands-to-the-face call on Dre Flowers led to a Packers first down, and ultimately the game-winning chip-shot FG, in what otherwise would have likely been a Packers punt situation to seal a Lions victory. The Lions seem to get screwed more than the New Orleans Saints, and on national television, no less. The Packers escaped again, but much like the Seattle Seahawks, remain one of the weakest 5-1 teams in the NFL. Prepare yourself for much more finger pointing and resting bitch face from the football player formerly known as Aaron Rodgers as Green Bay's season inevitably regresses to the mean.
BYEs: Buffalo Bills; Chicago Bears; Indianapolis Colts; Oakland Raiders
Stay
tuned for Week 7: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) coming Thursday & Saturday!
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