Tuesday's Gone: Week 6 #NFL Game Reviews
Good luck at the window this season!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-1 (-7) @ Philadelphia Eagles 2-3 (52.5): 27-24 Buccaneers 28-22
Thursday, 8:20 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Cloudy; high 60s)
Keys: The Buccaneers are pretty banged up and their only dominant wins of the season this year have come against the hapless Atlanta Falcons and the disappointing Miami Dolphins. They should have lost to Dallas and New England and they got whooped by the Los Angeles Rams. So why are people so obsessed with a Bucs team that could easily be 2-3? Beats me. The Eagles are struggling with attrition, too, losing Dallas Goedert to injury and Lane Johnson to rehab, which only strains Jalen Hurts more, especially considering the Buccaneers have the league's top run defense. The Eagles have the league's third best passing defense, and could pressure on Tom Brady, potentially keeping the score low on a short week, but the Eagles don't have enough fire power to keep up with Tampa Bay even on a bad night. At least they'll cover the seven points.
The rare TNF sweep for PFM. Leonard Fournette (81 yards and 2 TDs on 22 carries) was the difference in a game the Bucs mostly dominated until the late 3rd quarter into the 4th.
Miami Dolphins 1-4 (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 0-5 (47): Jaguars 27-23 Jaguars 23-20
Sunday, 9:30 AM, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, England (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Tua Tagovailoa is back and just in time. Miami is the only team in the NFL ranking 30th or worse in all four major offensive categories, and the real problem is Miami’s defense is just as bad (31st total & scoring defense). This could be just the medicine the Jaguars need, as they’ve lost 20 straight games dating back to the beginning of 2020. Is the NFL trying to turn England away from the NFL???
Does this mean the Dolphins are officially the worst team in the NFL now? Does this also mean London will not accept anymore NFL games? At least the London Jaguars won at home to the delight of owner Shahid Kahn, and they did it with all three phases of the game, including the game-winning 53-yard FG as time expired of the foot of kicker Matthew Wright.
Green Bay Packers 4-1 (-5.5) @ Chicago Bears 3-2 (44): Packers 24-21 Packers 24-14
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Sunny; high 60s)
Keys: The Packers have won 11 of the past 13 games between these two division rivals and not much has changed. The Bears are still woeful offensively despite their supposed offensive guru in head coach Matt Nagy, but the defense has helped keep Chicago competitive with the 7th ranked scoring defense and 8th ranked total defense. The same could be said for the Packers, who rank 6th in total defense themselves, but have displayed a break-don’t-bend defense because they yield 24.4 ppg (20th). In fact, these teams are much more similar than they are different (both teams have negative point differentials), the one obvious glaring difference being Aaron Rodgers and Davate Adams, who will likely be the difference Sunday.
Aaron Rodgers (3 total TDs) single-handily beat the Bears Sunday, their 20th win in the last 23 meetings.
Cincinnati Bengals 3-2 (-3.5) v. Detroit Lions 0-5 (47): Bengals 30-21 Bengals 34-11
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Both of these teams lost last week on last second FGs, but only the Lions will lose this game to a last-second 50+ yard FG. I jest, but it’s actually a potential reality. The Lions are awful, in addition to their bad luck, while the Bengals have an electrifying offense at times with Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Mixon, who are all among league leaders at their respective positions, with a defense to compliment.
Joe Burrow (3 TDs on 271 yards passing) got punched in the throat last week and ended up in the hospital, but it's the Lions who got kicked in the throat Sunday and may end up on life support. The now 0-6 Lions only managed 228 yards on 3.7 ypp in only seven fewer plays than the Bengals, who gained 398 yards on 5.9 ypp. The Bengals are quietly putting up some of the best defensive numbers in the league, not that the Lions are any barometer.
Houston Texans 1-4 (+10) @ Indianapolis Colts 1-4 (43): Colts 26-24 Colts 31-3
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather Indoors)
Keys: The Colts got kicked in the stomach last week after the Baltimore Ravens put on a clinic to snatch the game late in the 4th quarter into OT, while the Texans held a 22-9 lead late in the 3rd quarter against the New England Patriots before squandering their chances at keeping 2021 interesting. Now both teams are 1-4, rethinking their strategies and realizing this is the first year it’s not over after 16 games. The Texans 26th ranked run defense could struggle against Jonathan Taylor, while the Texans suddenly sprite passing game (3 TDs on 312 passing yards) could keep the game within ten points against the Colts 20th ranked passing defense.
Stick a fork in the Houston Texans because they're done. Jonathan Taylor ran all over the Texans to the tune of 145 yards and 2 TDs on only 14 carries, but he only needed one TD to beat the lowly Texans.
Los Angeles Rams 41 (-9.5) @ New York Giants 1-4 (50): Rams 30-17 Rams 38-11
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)
Keys: The Giants have been absolutely awful so far this year and Daniel Jones and the Giants four top WRs are all questionable with a capital Q and Saquon Barkely is doubtful with a capital D. So suffice to say the Giants almost have no chance in this game, and by almost “no chance” I mean we can never say never in the NFL because the Rams could be in a secret cult and have a plan to drink poisonous Kool-Aid before the National Anthem, which would likely forfeit the game to the Giants.
Maybe Daniel Jones should've just sat this one out. Jones threw 3 INTs, Matthew Stafford threw 4 TDs for the Rams, and Los Angeles forced 4 Giants TOs and the gap between the league's few good teams and the many terrible teams widened.
Kansas City Chiefs 2-3 (-6.5) @ Washington Football Team 2-3 (54.5): Chiefs 40-23 Chiefs 31-14
Sunday, 1:00 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather: Sunny; high 60s)
Keys: There have been few games in the past few years that I have more confidence in a winner than the Chiefs in week 6. Kansas City has a losing record more than a quarter through the season (playing one the toughest SoS through five weeks) and the Washington defense is atrocious. That’s all the motivation the former kings of the AFC need after the Buffalo Bills took their title from them last week. The only question here is whether the Chiefs will score so fast and often they let the Football team get in on the act and help them crush this over. I think it’s possible.
The only take away from this game is Patrick Mahomes' untalented pathetic Tik Tok loser brother dancing on the late Sean Taylor's memorial at FedEx Field. Like my buddy hilariously said, "Dad played pro baseball. Brother plays pro football. Jackson plays Tik Tok." Enjoy the vitriol, Jackson.
Minnesota Vikings 2-3 (-2) @ Carolina Panthers 3-2 (45.5): Panthers 24-23 Vikings 34-28 OT
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Sunny; high 60s)
Keys: Home dog alert. One could argue the tape is out on the Carolina Panthers, but one could counter with the Panthers need this week to prove they’re legit against a formidable dome opponent outside at home. The truth is the Panthers rushed CMC back and it bit them in the ass. Sam Darnold hasn’t been the same guy without his safety net and the play action has suffered, which are obviously two sides of the same coin. Look for the Panthers top-ranked passing offense and 8th ranked run defense to clamp down on this Vikings team as Dalvin Cook has been shaken up of late and Kirk Cousins has gone from a quick start his first three games (8 TDs:0 INTs) to a serious regression the past two games (2 TDs:2 INTs), which puts Cousins at 17th for total QBR (54.5).
Sam Darnold looked absolutely awful throwing under 50% and an INT while Inconsistent Kirk balled out, throwing 3 TDs on 75% passing, including the game-winner in OT. Dalvin Cook (140 rushing yards; 1 TD) torched the Panthers stout run defense, too, so it's hard to believe the game even went to OT. Props to the Panthers for scoring 11-unanswered 4th quarter points to tie the game with 42 seconds left, but the slide continues for Carolina, losers of three straight after starting 3-0.
Los Angeles Chargers 4-1 (+2.5) @ Baltimore Ravens 4-1 (51.5): Chargers 28-24 Ravens 34-6
Sunday, 1:00 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Sunny; high 60s)
Keys: This game features two divisional leaders, although the Ravens (top total offense; 9th scoring offense) are lucky to even be in this position. The Ravens are 4-1 by an average margin of victory of 3.8 ppg if you take out a 23-7 win over the Denver Broncos week 4, and those four wins include one OT win and two wins by one and two points. One could argue their only lose was in OT, meaning they could easily be 5-0, but that doesn’t fit my narrative that these Ravens are on the verge of being a losing team and in trouble against the high-powered AFC West leading Chargers (5th total offense; 7th scoring offense). These two defenses leave something to be desired, so wave goodbye to the under and realize the game will come down to TOs, where the Chargers rank 10th in TO differential (+2), while Ravens, well, don’t (-1).
Who are these Ravens? It's not a good look when Justin Herbert leads the team in rushing with 12 yards. The Ravens even had more TOs than LA, but TOP was the key as Baltimore held the ball for nearly twice as long as the Chargers (38:07::21:53). If you don't have the ball, you can't score, and when the Ravens are rushing for 187 yards on 4.9 ypc you're probably not getting the ball much.
Arizona Cardinals 5-0 (-3.5) @ Cleveland Browns 3-2 (49.5): Browns 27-24 Cardinals 37-14
Sunday, 4:05 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: 60% rain; low 60s)
Keys: Perhaps the game of the week, I’m all over the home dog here. Giving 3.5 points to the Browns (4th scoring offense) at home is a really bad idea, even if the Cardinals are the 6th ranked scoring defense, because we’ve seen how terrible the Browns defense can be against high-scoring teams and they still rank 11th in scoring defense. The Cardinals score slightly more than Cleveland (4th: 31.4 ppg), which begs the question, is this all the handicappers thought of when they analyzed this game? Arizona scores 3 ppg more, their defense is slightly better and they’re on the road? Ok 3.5 points it is. Look for Cleveland to bounce back from their heartbreaking loss last week and put the intercontinental Cardinals away at home. Oh, it’s a 4:05 PM game? You lucky effing Cardinals.
The Cardinals are beginning to separate themselves in the NFL and this was one of those statement games. On the road against a formidable opponent the Cardinals, led by the amazing Kyler Murray (4 passing TDs), destroyed the injured Browns, who lost Kareem Hunt on top of Nick Chubb, and even lost Baker Mayfield again briefly, although he's scheduled to play TNF. Murray is only the second QB in NFL history to start 6-0 while completing over 75% of his passes (Peyton Manning).
Las Vegas Raiders 3-2 (+3.5) @ Denver Broncos 3-2 (44): Broncos 23-20 Raiders 34-24
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Sunny; high 70s)
Keys: The Gruden fallout didn’t take long. Suddenly the once “3-0 for the first time in 20 years” Raiders have lost two straight, their way and their head coach. Jon Gruden resigned this week after a sexual misconduct investigation into that joke of an organization called the “Washington Football Team” led by the cringe-worthy POS billionaire owner Dan Snyder somehow unearthed equally cringe-worthy emails in which Gruden proved to everyone why people not associated with football call it the “football mentality”. Homophobic, misogynistic and racist language abound in these now infamous emails that sank Gruden’s long and “storied” career in the NFL. Now the leaderless Raiders find themselves in a divisional battle with a mediocre Broncos team that no one is giving them a shot to beat. Certainly not me.
Nobody circles the wagons like, well, the Las Vegas Raiders I guess. It helps when Teddy Bridgewater throws 3 INTs and the Broncos lose a fumble, and it also helps when your offense dismantles a decent defense by holding the ball for over 34 minutes while gaining over 8 ypp
Dallas Cowboys 4-1 (-3.5) @ New England Patriots 2-3 (50.5): Cowboys 27-24 Cowboys 35-29 OT
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: 30% rain; low 60s)
Keys: On the outside this game seems like a great defense taking on an explosive offense in the perennial playoff town of Foxboro, but the truth is this is a New England team without an offense to speak of, with an older oft-injured kicker who may or may not hit the desperate 50-yard game winner and defense just trying to keep this team afloat against an explosive Cowboys team (2nd overall & scoring offense) that’s one 3-point loss to the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers from being 5-0, and against a formidable SoS at that. Speaking of SoS the Patriots have only beaten two terrible teams (NY Jets; Houston Texans) and even lost to one (Miami Dolphins). As much as I believe in Bill Belichick and this Patriots defense (5th overall & scoring), the Cowboys are too hot right now. They’re also 2nd in the NFL with a +7 TO differential, which is usually how the Patriots (27th) beat people.
The Patriots are now 2-4 and every team in the NFL should be terrified of them. Mac Jones was efficient, but Dak Prescott was too much once again, throwing for 445 yards and 3 TDs, 149 yards and 2 TDs going to CeeDee Lamb, who also scored the game-winning TD in OT. The Cowboys scored a defensive TD, the difference in the game, held the ball for over 12 more minutes and ran 32 more plays, yet needed OT to beat the pesky Patriots, who had a TD called back as well. If 2021 was a learning experience for New England we've learned this team is a few tweaks away from looking like the Patriots of old.
Seattle Seahawks 2-3 (+5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 2-3 (42.5): Steelers 23-17 Steelers 23-20 OT
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Clear; low 50s)
Keys: I think we all know the fate of this Seahawks team until Russell Wilson gets back.
The Steelers needed OT to beat the Seattle Wilsons, who were even without their namesake. At least TJ Watt is finally earning his money, forcing a Geno Smith fumble in OT that allowed the Steelers to kick the game-winning FG. No offense to Smith, but this is the second game he has lost for Seattle with a late TO and he's only been starting for Wilson for two games. Yikes.
Buffalo Bills 4-1 (-5.5) @ Tennessee Titans 3-2 (53.5): Bills 31-24 Titans 34-31
Monday, 8:15 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Clear; low 50s)
Keys: It’s ground vs. air, but we all know which is more valuable in today’s NFL or shipping packages. The Bills score in bunches and have the defense to prevent opponents from scoring at all, while the still one-dimensional Tennessee Henry’s have had trouble getting their WRs off the ground. There’s a reason the league’s best team is giving a solid Titans team 5.5 points on the road – they’re better in every way and also just happen to be the league’s 3rd ranked run defense.
I'm not so sure about that QB sneak call, but I'm just the guy behind the keyboard. The Titans stuffed Josh Allen (353 yards & 3 TDs/1 INT on 75% passing) on that 4th down play, winning the battle of the trenches on both sides of the ball as Derrick Henry (143 yards and 3 TDs on 20 carries) once again rushed for over 100 yards and was the key factor in the Titans big win on MNF. If these Tennessee WRS ever get right this is going to be one dangerous team come playoff time.
Stay tuned for Week 7: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) TNF EDITION coming Thursday!
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.