Week 9: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
SUNDAY EDITION
Good luck at the window this season!
New York Jets 2-5 (+10.5) @ Indianapolis Colts 3-5 (46): Colts 27-20
Thursday, 8:20 PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Don't be offended, Jets fans, the public has already bet this game up four points, because the opening line was Jets +14.5 until New York caught the Cincinnati Bengals sleeping and scored 34 points against them in Sunday's shocking win. The truth is the Jets are one of the worst overall teams in the NFL (coincidentally 28th overall & 30th scoring offense; 28th overall & 30th scoring defense; 30th TO differential), while the Colts are impossibly mediocre (14th scoring & 16th overall offense; 12th overall & 14th scoring defense), except for one shining outlier: The Colts are 3rd in the league with a +8 TO ratio. The Jets have a bright spot, too: They're one of the best kick and punt return teams in the NFL, but I suppose field position doesn't matter when you still can't score and you still can't keep people from scoring. The bottom line is Colts RB Jonathan Taylor is hot, but defending the run is the one thing the Jets aren't terrible at, so let's put it this way: 10.5 points is too much on the short week for a Jets team riding high against a Colts team that just had their souls ripped out last week.
Cleveland Browns 4-4 (+2.5) v. Cincinnati Bengals 5-3 (47): Bengals 27-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)
Keys: The Browns are falling fast, victims of attrition, poor defensive play and general underachievement. It’s not easy overcoming injuries to guys like Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, but as many have pointed out – everyone deals with injuries and a team as talented as the Browns should’ve figured it out by now. As for the Bengals, they just dropped the ball against the worst team in the league and will be looking to rebound to keep pace in the AFC North. This is an interesting spread. The opening line (CIN -3) is the same opening line from last week’s CINvNYJ game, although it’s easy to argue the home v. away factor. Still, this says almost as much about the Bengals as it does their underwhelming opponents – that the Bengals aren’t quite there, yet. The in-state rivalry heats up Sunday with both of these teams fighting for something for the first time in a long time.
Denver Broncos 4-4 (+10) @ Dallas Cowboys 6-1 (49.5): Cowboys 24-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Broncos lost Von Miller to the Los Angeles Rams earlier in the week and the Cowboys got Dak Prescott back from injury, so on the surface the ten points make sense. The problem is half of the rest of the Cowboys offense is out (OL Tyron Smith; TE Blake Jarwin) or questionable (WRs CeeDee Lamb & Amari Cooper) so Prescott may not have the guys to throw it to or protect him. Considering the Broncos have the 8th best rush defense Prescott might be forced to throw, which as we talked about, could be a problem. Dallas won’t cruise to this win as they have so many, but they’ll win.
Houston Texans 1-7 (+5.5) @ Miami Dolphins 1-7 (46.5): Dolphins 23-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)
Keys: This is one of the worst games of the week as both teams rank as two of the worst offenses and defenses in the league, both teams have a -4 TO differential and both teams have two of the worst point differentials in the NFL (HOU: 15.2 ppg; MIA: 11.8 ppg).
Atlanta Falcons 3-4 (+6) @ New Orleans Saints 5-2 (42): Saints 24-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: So the Saints are decimated and the Falcons just lost their only deep weapon to a mental health issue. So we have the answer to the O/U, but what of the line? Falcons giving 6 points to these decimated Saints? It makes sense when you consider the Saints defense (2nd rushing; 4th scoring; 10th overall), the TO differential (NO: +7; ATL: -4) and the fact the Falcons only score 21.1 ppg regardless of Calvin Ridley and will be in one of the toughest places to play in the NFL. Looks like we have the answer to the line, too.
Las Vegas Raiders 5-2 (-3) @ New York Giants 2-6 (46.5): Raiders 23-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Partly Sunny; low 50s)
Keys: My god, what else can the Raiders endure? We all know the horrific story that unfolded early Tuesday morning in Las Vegas, and there’s no telling how the Raiders will react on the road, but this line really tells us something about how bad the Giants are. The Raiders just lost one of their young stars to a terrible incident and have to travel across the country to NYC and they’re still three-point favorites. The Giants defense are no punks and brought the Kansas City Chiefs to the brink on MNF, so I can see them giving the Raiders trouble as Las Vegas tries to regroup once again. The trouble is they only have to win by four to cover and the Giants simply can’t score. In fact, that’s about the only thing that separates these two teams. Well, that and their records.
New England Patriots 4-4 (-3.5) @ Carolina Panthers 4-4 (41): Patriots 23-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Cloudy; low 60s)
Keys: Oh, hello, Stephon Gilmore. There’s a reason the 4-4 Patriots led by a rookie QB are 3.5-point favorites on the road. The Panthers suddenly suck. After starting the season 3-0 the Panthers have lost CMC. Sam Darnold’s confidence and their former top defense through the first quarter of the season has fallen off, giving up 29 ppg over their four straight loses before they finally stopping the bleeding Sunday against the lowly Atlanta Falcons. The Patriots will try their usual hammer approach while showing Gilmore they don't miss him.
Buffalo Bills 5-2 (-14.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 1-6 (48.5): Bills 33-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: Partly Sunny; low 60s)
Keys: This is one of those games where the outcome is so obvious you get nervous. These two teams couldn’t be more diametrically opposed. The Bills score 32.7 ppg and give up 15.6 ppg yielding the best point differential in the NFL (+17.1 ppg). Guess what? The Jaguars are 28th (-11.4 ppg) and almost look like we flipped the Bills ppg.
Minnesota Vikings 3-4 (+6) @ Baltimore Ravens 5-2 (49.5): Ravens 27-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Partly Sunny; low 50s)
Keys: The Ravens are coming off a bye, in which they’re historically successful, and they’re also coming off one of their worst losses in a long time, to the divisional rival Cincinnati Bengals no less. Perhaps therein lies the six points (Note: The line hasn’t moved), because other than Minnesota’s inconsistency on both sides of the ball, not much separates these two teams, and any lacking in the Vikings passing game is easily made up on the ground. The Vikings are even +4 in TO differential while the Ravens are -1. So what gives? People just don’t trust Kirk Cousins. You like that? I do, actually. I’m taking the points.
Los Angeles Chargers 4-3 (-1.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles 3-4 (49.5): Eagles 24-23
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Partly Sunny; low 50s)
Keys: The Chargers lost to a good New England Patriots team at home last week and have to travel across the country to face the pesky Eagles, who just finished embarrassing the Detroit Lions. Let’s meet in the middle on Lincoln Financial, and here we have it: The Chargers giving 1.5-points on the road. Much like the Patriots, the Eagles actually average more ppg then the “mighty” Chargers offense, and defensively, the Eagles 8th ranked passing defense should be fine v. the Chargers 7th ranked passing offense. It’s the Chargers passing defense that could give the Eagles trouble Sunday, forcing them to the ground, which could play right into the hands of Philadelphia’s 6th ranked running game. Add all this to an Eagles defense that breaks, but doesn't bend (9th overall) and suddenly I see the Eagles not only covering, but winning.
Green Bay Packers 7-1 (+7) @ Kansas City Chiefs 4-4 (48): Chiefs 27-23
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Sunny; high 60s)
Keys: The TV gods were salivating over this game when they made the schedule, but little did they know the Chiefs would be nothing like they have been the past few years and Aaron Rodgers is on the ivermectin. What a clown Rodgers is. It’s not about the Packers rallying around Rodgers disingenuous ways, it’s about them not being the same team when Rodgers isn’t at the helm. Spare me the “This is why we drafted Jordan Love” narrative. The Packers defense will have to step it up against the Chiefs at home, who will try to score early and often to override their defense, which gives up over 27 ppg. In fact, the Chiefs have a negative point differential for the first time since Patrick Mahomes took a snap for them. The Chiefs simply can’t afford to keep losing and the Packers are without their head. Enter the other Aaron, Aaron Jones. Seems like a no-brainer, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chiefs still don’t cover – something the Packers have done all year, unlike the Chiefs.
Arizona Cardinals 7-1 (+2) @ San Francisco 49ers 3-4 (45): Cardinals 24-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Sunny; mid-60s)
Keys: Both teams limp into Sunday’s game, where the Cardinals opened at -3 just to see the public bet the game up to 49ers -2 in the shadow of Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins potential absences, who are both game time decisions for the Cardinals. I’m going to go out on a limb and say the cortisone shots work and they both get on the field to keep pace with the Los Angeles Rams, who just got even better over the week (LAR acquired Von Miller).
Tennessee Titans 6-2 (+7) @ Los Angeles Rams 7-1 (53): Rams 30-20
Sunday, 8:20 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Ahh, another blow to the TV/scheduling gods. Without Derrick Henry the Titans don’t stand much of a chance against most teams, let alone the Rams, who just signed Von Miller, you know, because they needed him so badly. There’s a chance the Titans rally around Ryan Tannehill and AJ Brown and Julio Jones, but the Rams have the players for any match up and newly acquired Von Miller could make Tannehill’s life miserable.
Chicago Bears 3-5 (+6.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 4-3 (39): Steelers 21-17
Monday, 8:15 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Clear; low 40s)
Keys: What the hell is this Monday night monstrosity??? Both of these teams are abysmal offensively, but only the Steelers have a defense worth talking about (7th scoring; 11th overall), so one can only imagine the rookie Justin Fields and the NFL’s worst overall offense will struggle on the road against Pittsburgh.
Stay tuned for Tuesday's Gone Week 9: #NFL Game Reviews coming Wednesday!
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