2021 NFL SEASON
Tuesday's Gone: Week 11 #NFL Game Reviews
Good luck at the window this season!
New England Patriots 6-4 (-6.5) @ Atlanta Falcons 4-5 (47): Patriots 28-20 Patriots 25-0
Thursday, 8:15 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The opening spread and money line were NE -4 at +105, respectively, which doesn't make much sense to me, either analytically or mathematically, but I'm just a guy who makes picks. I guess it makes sense from the standpoint that at -4 the handicappers are saying the Patriots are one-point underdogs after considering the setting at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, but wouldn't that mean the Patriots would be -105? I digress, because the spread (NE -6.5) and ML (NE -290) are both nowhere near their opening numbers and finally accurate, at least for the ML . 6.5-points seems high for a rookie QB on the road on a short week, but is it though? The Patriots have been running all over opponents and the Falcons rank 21st v. the run. One could argue that has nothing to do with rookie QB Mac Jones, but what does is the Falcons 2nd highest QB rating allowed to opposing QBs (106.5) or the fact they rank last in sacks. It also doesn't hurt Jones or the Patriots that Atlanta ranks 26th in TO ratio (NE ranks 7th) primarily because they don't force TOs. It's all about intangibles Thursday night says my good friend, let's call him Mike, and he's right - there may be no hotter team than the New England Patriots right now while the Falcons are still licking the wounds from their 43-3 loss to the Dallas Cowboys Sunday. These are two teams trending in the opposite direction so take the Patriots with confidence, but don't come screaming to me if they only win by six.
Just like that the Patriots are back atop the AFC East and suddenly the most feared team in the AFC. Sound familiar?
Indianapolis Colts 5-5 (+7) @ Buffalo Bills 6-3 (50): Bills 27-21 Colts 41-15
Sunday, 1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: 60% rain; high 40s)
Keys: Carson Wentz is quietly having a good season, despite the early struggles, Jonathan Taylor is breaking away as one of the league’s best RBs and the Colts have climbed back into the conversation after the Tennessee Titans lost Derrick Henry for the season. The Bills have been slipping of late and now find themselves mere percentage points ahead of the New England Patriots in the AFC East, actually a fraction of one percentage point (0.30), after holding a several game lead just a few weeks ago. So what? So there’s no margin for error against a team trending in the right direction, and the weather shouldn’t be a problem for a ground team led by an outdoor QB. One might turn to TOs in a game like this, except these teams rank 1st (BUF) and 2nd (IND), respectively, in TO differential. The Bills can’t afford to lose, and are home, which should be enough to motivate the Bills to win against a Colts team no longer considered a doormat.
I could just as easily refer to the New England Patriots review for this game because the once dominant Bills are suddenly second place in the AFC East again and losers of three of their last five games after destroying a Kansas City Chiefs team Week 5 right as KC hit rock bottom. Perhaps worse is other than their win against the Chiefs, who were only 2-2 at the time, their other five wins have come against Miami twice, Washington, Houston and the Jets, all of which have a combined record of 12-29 (.293). That's not exactly championship-caliber opposition for this supposedly championship-level team. The Bills still have some control over their destiny, playing New England twice in the next month, but it doesn't look promising. As for the Colts...
Baltimore Ravens 6-3 (-5) @ Chicago Bears 3-6 (44.5): Ravens 27-20 Ravens 16-13
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: 30% rain; high 40s)
Keys: The Ravens travel to Chicago following an embarrassing loss to the Miami Dolphins to face the team that thinks they drafted their own Lamar Jackson in Justin Fields, but there’s no sign of that so far. The Bears are one of the worst offenses in the NFL, and the defense, which has shown flashes, isn’t much better statistically than the Ravens, who are having a down year on the defensive side of the ball.
Nothing like a pregame Lamar Jackson illness to throw this game into the fire and see a dude no one has ever heard of take over QB for the Ravens, which ended on a good note, but just as likely because the Bears also lost their starting QB during the game.
Detroit Lions 0-8-1 (+11.5) @ Cleveland Browns 5-5 (43.5): Browns 24-17 Browns 13-10
Sunday, 1;00 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: 90% rain; high 40s)
Keys: All this talk of the Lions improving is hilarious because they just tied a terrible Pittsburgh Steelers team without Ben Roethlisberger, two of their three top WRs or TJ Watt. The Browns got destroyed by the New England Patriots, but who hasn’t lately? The Browns defense suddenly comes to life against inferior offenses, so look for more of the same Sunday in the pouring rain as Baker Mayfield tries to get right and keep the Browns competitive in a crowded AFC North.
Yet another Browns game was ruined by rain. Just kidding, it was ruined by the competition, but a win is a win no matter how ugly it was (Baker Mayfield 2 INTs; Tim Boyle 2 INTs). The exception here was the play of Nick Chubb, who rushed for 130 yards on only 22 carries to keep his league-leading 6.0 ypc going and helped keep the Lions mighty offense off the field.
Houston Texans 1-8 (+10) @ Tennessee Titans 8-2 (44.5): Titans 28-17 Texans 22-13
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: 60% rain; low 60s)
Keys: The Titans keep winning despite having no weapons (Derrick Henry & Julio Jones – IR; AJ Brown – Q), which is a testament to Ryan Tannehill and a stellar pass rush (5th sacks) and run defense (7th), which sets up takeaways (9th), which come mostly in the form of INTs (9th) at the hands of one of the better secondaries in the league.
The Titans took a page out of the Buffalo Bills playbook and seem to be trying to give the AFC away after dropping the game to the lowly Texans. Of course the week I put the Titans future on the shoulders of Ryan Tannehill he has his worst game of the season throwing 4 INTs. Add that to a Chester Rodgers fumble and we have the recipe for the Titans first loss in seven weeks.
Green Bay Packers 8-2 (-1.5) @ Minnesota Vikings 4-5 (47): Packers 27-23 Vikings 34-31
Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Vikings might be the hardest team to analyze in the NFL mostly due to their high level of talent in concert with some of the worst inconsistency in the league. The Packers are the opposite, with a sound defense and running game to compliment two of the best at their respective positions in Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams, although the former has been embroiled in covid vaccine controversy, but it seems he may have just passed the baton to Antonio Brown, so he might be back out of the woke forest and seeing the game again for the trees.
Eight different people including both kickers scored in this game, won by the Vikings on a FG as time expired, but don't blame the QBs. Aaron Rodgers (4) and Kirk Cousins combined for seven TD passes and zero INTs as their offenses battled it out and scored with ease against two supposedly good defenses. Well, at least the Packers do. Then again we can't really blame a Packers defense that was only allowing 18 ppg so far in 2021 before Sunday and was largely responsible for the Packers 8-2 record until Sunday.
Miami Dolphins 3-7 (-3) @ New York Jets 2-7 (44.5): Dolphins 23-17 Dolphins 24-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: 40% rain; high 50s)
Keys: The Dolphins have won two straight games, including a win v. the Baltimore Ravens, by simply blitzing the living hell out of their opponents, which begs the question: Will they even need this scheme against the Jets? The answer is no.
The Dolphins pulled away in the 4th quarter for their third-straight win and my 817th close call.
New Orleans Saints 5-4 (+2) @ Philadelphia Eagles 4-6 (43.5): Eagles 24-23 Saints 40-29
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Cloudy; high 50s)
Keys: The Saints are slipping away without Jameis Winston and a healthy Alvin Kamara, despite the play of their suffocating defense, while the Eagles just won’t go away. The Saints will try to shut down the Eagles run game and force the game into Jalen Hurts hands, who has 13 passing TDs to only 5 INTs while leading the team in rushing yards and rushing TDs (5). When you consider the Eagles defense it’s actually hard to figure why they don’t have more wins.
If the late second half of some games can be called the witching hour can we call the NFC East the witching division? A few weeks ago the Cowboys were going 16-1 and the rest of the NFC East looked lucky to get a win. Suddenly Dallas has lost two of their last three games and Jalen Hurts (3 RTDs) and the Eagles look like a team you might not want to play. Hell, even Washington is starting to beat people with Tyler Heinicke. The Eagles held the ball for over 37 minutes and rushed a whopping 50 times for 242 yards (4.8 ypc) and literally ran the league's 3rd best run defense out of the building. A few weeks ago the Saints were looking like Super Bowl contenders while the Eagles were floundering. What a difference a few weeks makes in the Not For Long league.
Washington Football Team 3-6 (+3.5) @ Carolina Panthers 5-5 (43): Panthers 24-20 Football Team 27-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Cloudy; high 50s)
Keys: Cam Newton returns as the Panthers starter, against his old coach in Ron Rivera, to boot, which has to conjure mixed feelings among Panthers fans. On one hand the Panthers went to a Super Bowl with MVP Cam Newton, their franchise QB for almost a decade. On the other hand the Panthers had moved on from Cam and thought they had developed a new identity with CMC and a new shut down defense to go along with their new franchise leader in Sam Darnold. Welp. The Football Team shocked the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the betting world last week, but even a stopped clock is right twice a day and there’s a reason Tyler Heinicke is a 3.5-point underdog to the floundering Panthers.
If the Football Team played the NFC South every week they might be a team worth paying attention to, but alas, they play in a much worse division. Tyler Heinicke, who Washington might want to consider keeping at QB, threw 3 TD passes on his way to a 92.5 QBR performance against one of the best defenses in the league, at least on paper. Carolina allows the fewest passing yards, the 2nd fewest total yards and was a top-10 defense in QBR allowed until Sunday.
San Francisco 49ers 4-5 (-6.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 2-7 (45): 49ers 27-20 49ers 30-10
Sunday, 1:00 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)
Keys: The 49ers, finally relatively healthy again, have entered the ring as spoilers and have already been delivering blows. The Jaguars have nothing to be spoiled, but they have been playing better week to week, winners of two of their last four games after starting the season 0-5. Both these teams turn the ball over a lot, which could be the key to the game, but until the Jaguars can show consistency on offense and score points there’s not much hope for these Jaguars.
The Jaguars were who we thought they were.
Cincinnati Bengals 5-4 (-1) @ Las Vegas Raiders 5-4 (50.5): Bengals 27-24 Bengals 32-13
Sunday, 4:05PM, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: What an aggravating game for fans of these teams, which both had serious playoff aspirations only a few weeks ago. What a difference a few weeks makes. After hurdling the Jon Gruden debacle the Raiders then suffered the horrific tragedy involving rookie sensation Henry Ruggs III. The Bengals haven’t suffered any such fate, they just turned into the Bengals again after their once dominant defense started to give up points and their dynamic offense stopped scoring them. The weird thing is both of these team’s two-game slides started at MetLife Stadium (CIN lost to NYJ; LV lost to NYG) and both teams were last seen losing by nearly identical lopsided scores (CIN: 41-16 loss to CLE; LV: 41-14 loss to KC). One of the Bengals main issues is TOs (22nd), specifically INTs (28th), which could be the key to this close game, but lucky for the Bengals the Raiders rank 27th in INTs. There’s a reason this game has a one-point spread. This game is basically a PK and I’m giving the nod to the rested team.
The Bengals held the ball for over 37 minutes, had 70 plays on offense and the Raiders turned the ball over twice (1 INT; 1 FUM) on the way to a Bengals dominant win in which Joe Mixon ran for 123 yards and 2 TDs on 30 carries.
Dallas Cowboys 7-2 (+2.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs 6-4 (56): Chiefs 31-30 Chiefs 19-9
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Clear; high 50s)
Keys: Everyone knows about these electric, dynamic offenses that both average more than 400 total yards and over 300 ypg in the air, the Cowboys averaging over 31 ppg in the process, but what about the defenses? The Cowboys have a surprisingly good defense (10th scoring), led surprisingly by Rookie of the Year candidate (and even DPoY) LB in Micah Parsons, but they’ll be missing some key pass rushers (DeMarcus Lawrence & Randy Gregory IR). The Chiefs defense has been their Achilles Heal in a way, but all of a sudden Kansas City is only allowing only 15.6 ppg over their last five games (4-1) after allowing 32.6 ppg over their first five games (2-3). Something has clicked, perhaps getting rid of a certain unathletic someone, but it’s a welcome trend because Patrick Mahomes is just starting to get out of his funk. In fact, after last week’s big win the Chiefs Super Bowl win odds dropped from +1400 to +900 in a few days. The significant loss of pass rush on the Cowboys defensive front plays right into Kansas City’s hands, but they haven’t played an offense as skilled and dynamic or a team as good on both sides of the ball as Dallas since they played Buffalo Week 5 and we all know how that ended. Both teams are 4-1 in their last five games and Dallas comes into Kansas City the closest underdog since Mahomes became the starter in 2018, so it comes down to whether or not the Chiefs can contain the Cowboys offense on any level.
I told you this defense found something, holding a short-handed Cowboys team to 276 totals yards (4.3 ypp) and forcing three Dak Prescott TOs (1 FUM; 2 INTs) and nearly a fourth (1 FUM REC) while hitting him eight times, sacking him five and defending nine of his passes. The Chiefs offense still didn't look great at home against a depleted Cowboys defense, but the Chiefs defense has stepped up of late, helping the Chiefs get back on track in an uncertain AFC.
Arizona Cardinals 8-2 (-2) @ Seattle Seahawks 3-6 (48): Cardinals 24-20 Cardinals 23-13
Sunday, 4:25 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: Mostly cloudy; mid-40s)
Keys: I’ve been burned once and got lucky once the past two weeks assuming Kyler Murray and hoping DeAndre Hopkins would play after being designated “game time” decisions by head coach Cliff Kingsbury, only to see them sit, and he we are again, except this time Hopkins has already been axed. The Cardinals proved last week they’re not invincible without their two offensive stars, and Russell Wilson will have knocked off some more rust by Sunday, but the Seahawks look awful and so does Wilson if we’re being honest, who likely came back too soon from the surgery everyone was praising him for coming back so soon from. We haven't even mentioned the Cardinals dominant defense (2nd FUM; 4th takeaways; 5th overall; 5th scoring; 5th 3rd down %; 9th sacks; 9th QBR).
Newcomer Zach Ertz caught both of Colt McCoy's TD passes, which was enough in itself to beat the lowly Seahawks, who might be looking at Russell Wilson's last year in Seattle. And Pete Carroll's for that matter. The Cardinals have done well without their stars, going 2-1 so far.
Pittsburgh Steelers 5-3-1 (+6) @ Los Angeles Chargers 5-4 (47): Chargers 24-21 Chargers 41-37
Sunday, 8:20 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Steelers will be without Ben Roethlisberger again Sunday night and we all saw how the Mason Rudolph show went against the Detroit Lions. Justin Herbert will be looking to bounce back after the roughest stretch of his young career, at least QBR-wise, and he might not have to worry about TJ Watt (Q). Either way the Steelers don’t have the offense to keep up with the Chargers on a bad day for Los Angeles, regardless of how well their defense is playing. Look for the Steelers to run heavy on the Chargers porous run defense (32nd) and control the clock, which is basically their only chance.
I had a five-team parlay with the Chargers in the four-slot and went to sleep in the 3rd quarter with a comfortable 27-10 lead. By the 3:30 mark of the 4th quarter the Steelers were leading 37-34 and my money was gone. Luckily I was fast asleep. We all know how it ended, on a 53-yard TD connection from Justin Herbert (3 TDs on 382 passing yards; 90 rushing yards; 1 INT) to Mike Williams (5 REC for 97 yards), ruining a storybook comeback for Ben Roethlisberger (3 TDs on 273 passing yards), whose such chances are getting fewer by the season.
New York Giants 3-6 (+11) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-3 (49.5): Buccaneers 27-20 Buccaneers 30-10
Monday, 8:15 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Clear; low 50s)
Keys: The only thing the Giants do well is take the ball away (10th INTs; 11th FUM), while the Buccaneers (18th giveaways) are still considered Super Bowl favorites by many despite their two-game slide to inferior teams (NO; WAS). Perhaps it’s karma from injuring Jameis Winston. The Giants have actually won two of their three wins just in the past three weeks after starting the season 1-5, and the last time the Giants faced an offensive juggernaut on the road getting at least ten points they covered with ease (KC). Add all of this to the Buccaneers latest Antonio Brown drama with the Giants being fresh off their bye week and I think we have a Giants cover here.
It wasn't the prettiest domination of an inferior team on MNF, and the game was tied 10-10 midway through the 2nd quarter, but the Buccaneers rattled off 20 unanswered points following the Giants tying score mostly because the Buccaneers were rattling Daniel Jones (9 QB hits; 6 PD; 2 sacks; 2 INTs).
Stay tuned for PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Week 12 #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) TNF EDITION coming Thursday!
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