2021 NFL SEASON
Good luck at the window this season!
Atlanta Falcons 7-8 (+14.5) @ Buffalo Bills 9-6 (44): Bills 31-14
Sunday, 1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: 100% snow; high 20s)
Keys: The Bills smell chum in the water with the subpar Falcons coming into town from the deep south in the midst of a snow storm and the chance to either seal up divisional title or risk being on the outside looking in. That’s the recipe for covering 14.5 points against a team only two games behind Buffalo on paper.
New York Giants 4-11 (+6) @ Chicago Bears 5-10 (36.5): Bears 23-13
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Snow clearing; low 20s)
Keys: For integrity purposes I’ll preview this game.
Kansas City Chiefs 11-4 (-4) v. Cincinnati Bengals 9-6 (51): Bengals 28-27
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Rain stopping; low 40s)
Keys: The Chiefs need only win out and they secure the top seed in the AFC and the bye that goes with it. The same thing can be said about the Bengals and the AFC North, although the Bengals could back into the AFC lead with lots of help, including winning this game. You might thinks this motivates the Bengals, but strangely enough they’re better on the road (5-2) than at home (4-4). These two teams are similar in many areas, with the Bengals slightly trailing in most on both sides of the ball, but one thing that sets them apart is TO and pass protection, where the Chiefs excel (+3; 27 sacks allowed) and the Bengals don’t (-2; 47 sacks allowed). In fact, if we’re being honest, the only thing the Bengals excel at over the Chiefs is run defense, but the Chiefs don’t run the ball anyway (21st rush attempts), and with Clyde Edwards-Helaire out that makes it even more obsolete. The Bengals should be good for a long time, but there’s a reason Cincinnati are 4-point underdogs at home at 9-6.
Miami Dolphins 8-7 (+3.5) @ Tennessee Titans 10-5 (40): Dolphins 23-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: 40% rain; low 40s)
Keys: This game is similar to the KC@CIN in that the Titans are battling for the top seed in the AFC as well as the AFC South title, while the Dolphins, once thought to be canned, could actually make the playoffs with some help. Miami is also white hot, winners of seven straight games after losing seven straight games. So the pattern would suggest they lose, however, a win sets up at showdown with the New England Patriots in Miami next week in which they could make what seemed impossible just a month ago into a reality. The Titans have been floundering since the loss of Derrick Henry (4-3), giving up their lead in the AFC and letting the Indianapolis Colts climb back into the AFC South. Neither of these teams score much and both teams are nearly identical on the defensive side of the ball, statistically, except in two glaring areas: The Dolphins are 1st in sacks and the Titans are -5 in TO differential. Miami should not only cover against the anxious Titans, they might win.
Las Vegas Raiders 8-7 (+8) @ Indianapolis Colts 9-6 (45): Colts 24-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: You know it’s bad for Carson Wentz when the world thinks the Colts can easily beat the Raiders without him, but that’s great news for Indianapolis, although the Colts have to win out if they want to win the AFC South, a seemingly impossible feat at mid-season. The Raiders have averaged 10.5 ppg (2-2) since their monster OT win over the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving, and although they’ve only given up 14.6 ppg over those four games, the Colts averaged 27.8 ppg during the same four-game span and Las Vegas has the 19th ranked rush defense to face Jonathan Taylor. Regardless, eight points is a lot to cover against a defense playing well against a Colts team potentially without their starting QB.
Jacksonville Jaguars 2-13 (+16.5) @ New England Patriots 1-1 (41.5): Patriots 24-6
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: 30% rain; high 40s)
Keys: In a matter of a few weeks the Patriots went from potentially winning the AFC to potentially being on the outside looking in if they even tie the Jaguars and the Miami Dolphins win Sunday, setting up a show down in Miami during the unprecedented Week 18 finale. The more accurate way to look at it is if the Patriots beat the worst team in the NFL led by a rookie QB with no head coach at home in the cold rain they make the playoffs. That doesn’t just seem inevitable, that seems like a recipe for the Patriots blowing the doors off the Jaguars by halftime.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11-4 (-13) @ New York Jets 4-11 (45.5): Buccaneers 27-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: 45% rain; low 50s)
Keys: The Buccaneers are trying to win the NFC and the Jets are still trying to figure out how to get their best players on the field together at the same time, so suffice it to say, Tampa Bay losing to vastly inferior teams is so 2021. I wouldn’t bank too much on the Buccaneers covering 13 points without Leonard Fournette and Mike Evans and Antonio Brown being questionable.
Los Angeles Rams 11-4 (-6) @ Baltimore Ravens 8-7 (46.5): Ravens 21-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: 70% rain; low 60s)
Keys: The Ravens find themselves in “win-or-go-home” mode, which fits right into John Harbaugh’s “We-Are-Not-Allowed-To-Tie” mentality, which I’m sure won’t come back to haunt him the loss column the next two weeks. The Ravens need a lot of help, like winning out while the Cincinnati Bengals lose out, because that’s their only chance of getting into the playoffs after starting the Lamar Jackson era 31-8 with three playoff appearances and two divisional titles. Yet, despite all this, do you see the Rams, led by Matthew “Indoor” Stafford, traveling all the way to Baltimore to beat them in a 10 AM game in the pouring rain? Well, maybe, but I don’t see them covering more than six points, especially when three of the Ravens four straight loses have come by an average of 1.3 ppg. If you’re going to take them to cover you might as well take the value on the money line.
Philadelphia Eagles 8-7 (-4.5) @ Washington Football Team 6-9 (44.5): Eagles 26-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather: 50% rain; high 60s)
Keys: Nothing like January football when the temperatures reach a balmy 67 degrees in the mid-Atlantic. Hey, at least you can go up to Canada if you want to see snow. Oh wait, it’s raining up there, too. Well, while the Earth still exists as we know it we have this mediocre game to look forward to, where the WFT has no stake in anything anymore and the Eagles have a slim chance at making the playoffs and an even slimmer chance of making any noise if they get there. These teams played just two weeks ago and we should expect similar results.
Denver Broncos 7-8 (+7.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers 8-7 (45.5): Chargers 26-20
Sunday, 4:05 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: 13 of 16 games in Week 17 have playoff implications including the game in question, although the only chances slimmer than the Chargers chances are the Broncos chances. That’s the funny thing though, 13 games may have playoff implications, but 10 of the 21 teams involved in those games are on the verge of being eliminated this week. The Broncos are suddenly the top scoring defense in the NFL (t-NE) and rank 4th in opposing QBR, 5th in passing defense and 6th in total defense, which could be trouble for the Chargers since they primarily pass the ball (5th pass attempts; 24th rush attempts). The Broncos have a +2.6 ppg point differential (LAC: -0.2 ppg) and are +3 in TO differential (LAC: 0), which begs the question: Why did the Chargers open at -6??? Omicron. That’s why.
Houston Texans 4-11 (+12.5) @ San Francisco 49ers 8-7 (44.5): 49ers 27-17
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Sunny; mid-50s)
Keys: Let’s see if the Texans can continue their late season surge (two straight wins) and play spoiler for the 49ers. That’s doubtful, because the Texans are back to playing a good defense on the road, and among the dichotomy between talent and the fact the 49ers are home fighting for a playoff spot, the Texans are dealing with covid issues, which the team from California isn’t. Wow, isn’t that strange.
Arizona Cardinal 10-5 (+6) @ Dallas Cowboys 11-4 (52): Cowboys 28-21
Sunday, 4:25 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Cardinals have only beaten two potential playoff teams since the first month of the season, the Cleveland Browns and San Francisco 49ers twice, and that’s assuming those teams even make the playoffs. The Cardinals also haven’t been the same team without Deandre Hopkins and now the once dominant Arizona defense has given up 26 ppg since their Week 12 bye. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have been red hot since their OT loss to the Las Vegas Raiders on Thanksgiving, winning four straight games by an average score of 33-14. Normally getting 6 points with Kyler Murray and the Cardinals against the Cowboys without much to lose late in the season would seem like a no-brainer, but these Cowboys are different, the Cardinals could be more dependent on Hopkins then we realized and Micah Parson can run down Murray in a heartbeat.
Carolina Panthers 5-10 (+6.5) @ New Orleans Saints 7-8 (37.5): Saints 23-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Saints have the slimmest of chances of all the teams that remain alive in the NFC, otherwise this one would fall in the “preview due to integrity” category.
Detroit Lions 2-12-1 (+7.5) @ Seattle Seahawks 5-10 (41.5): Seahawks 21-13
Sunday, 4:25 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: 90% rain; mid-30s)
Keys: One one cares, not even the fans of these teams, but we have to preview every game. Wave goodbye to Russell Wilson, 12th Man.
Minnesota Vikings 7-8 (+13) @ Green Bay Packers 12-3 (42.5): Packers 31-17
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Clear; low 10s)
Keys: The good lord hath forsaken Kirk Cousins with covid, but it’s more like the Vikings have forsaken their fans because right when the Vikings had a chance to make the playoffs by winning out they lost their star RB and now their QB two weeks in a row to covid. If only they had only contracted covid when Aaron Rodgers did they’d be in a different position. What a funny group of people the unvaccinated are. Without Cousins the Packers will stuff the box and make things difficult for Dalvin Cook and my FFB championship chances, while easily slaying one of their few divisional demon in the Vikings as they continue their ascend towards a first round bye.
Cleveland Browns 7-8 (-3.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 7-7-1 (41): Steelers 22-20
Monday, 8:15 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Clear; high 20s)
Keys: Barring any miracles it’s on to 2022 for these two teams, but only one will have many questions to answer in the off season, for example, What the hell happened??? So long, Ben Roethlisberger, no one outside of Pittsburgh will miss you and I’m not talking about the game.
Stay tuned for Tuesday's Gone: Week 17 #NFL Game Reviews coming Wednesday!
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