2021 NFL SEASON
Good luck at the window this season!
San Francisco 49ers 8-6 (-3) @ Tennessee Titans 9-5 (44.5): 49ers 26-20 Titans 20-17
Thursday, 8:15 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Cloudy; high 40s)
Keys: These teams are either fighting for their playoff lives (SF) or jockeying for position within their conference (TEN), but these teams are also trending in opposite directions. Both defenses are good, and very similar statistically in terms of points and total yards allowed, with the only real difference being the Titans defend the run better and the 49ers defend the pass better. Offensively they’re moving apart like two golf balls striking in mid-air. With the losses of Derrick Henry and AJ Brown to IR and Julio Jones for most of the year, the Titans have struggled to score, especially lately, scoring 16.4 ppg over their last five games (2-3). In that same five-game stretch the 49ers have averaged 28.8 ppg, against similar competition to boot. It’s hard to believe the 3rd seed in the AFC is a 3-point underdog at home (TEN opened -1), especially with The Indianapolis Colts breathing down their necks, but the 49ers are hot (5-1 in their last six games) and the Titans simply don’t have the weapons.
The Titans took advantage of two Jimmy G INTs and came back from down 10 points at the half to stay alive in the AFC bye hunt.
Cleveland Browns 7-7 (+7.5) @ Green Bay Packers 11-3 (45.5): Packers 27-21 Packers 24-22
Christmas, 4:30 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Mostly cloudy; low 30s)
Keys: The Browns have become the face of inconsistency, while the Packers are 11-3 in equal parts defense and the combination of Aaron Rodgers & Davante West. Rodgers will have his hands cut out for him with the Browns pass rush (6th sacks), and Cleveland should be able to run on the Packers 13th ranked run defense, but the Packers are too well-rounded and at home trying to secure the NFC bye to lose to an inconsistent Browns team. Once again, covering 7.5 points is another thing considering the points about Cleveland running the ball and chewing up the clock so don’t be surprised if the game is closer than the spread suggests.
Baker Mayfield is such a tough guy overcompensating for the fact that he's six feet tall that he came back from injury too early and has almost single-handily crushed the Browns playoff hopes. Mayfield threw four INTs and yet the Packers barely squeezed out a two-point win. I'm not sure if that says more about the Browns or the Packers starting their let down of Green Bay early this year.
Indianapolis Colts 8-6 (+1) @ Arizona Cardinals 10-4 (49.5): Cardinals 26-23 Colts 22-16
Christmas, 8:15 PM, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: For X-mas we get a potential Super Bowl preview, what a treat. The Colts are red hot after beating the New England Patriots last week, and are 8-3 in their last 11 games after starting the season 0-3. The crazier part might be the three losses in that 11-game stretch consisted of two OT losses and one to the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Meanwhile the once dominant Cardinals just lost by 18 points to the Detroit Lions, their second loss in a row, and the NFC top seed with it. The Cardinals normally would have some trouble stopping the run, and we all saw how that went for New England last week, but two of the Colts starting offensive linemen are out (RG Mike Glowinski & C Mike Kelly) and LG Quenton Nelson could make it a third, which would be almost impossible to come back on the road from.
The Colts were suddenly the team to beat after they slayed the NFC's former top seed, but unfortunately for the Colts, just as they started ascending towards the heavens the QB who preaches all the time about it just got screwed leaving everything in the hands his savior landing on the covid protocol list, and because Carson Wentz is unvaccinated he could miss significant time. So much for the guy upstairs looking out for you, Carson, damn.
Detroit Lions 2-11-1 (+5.5) @ Atlanta Falcons 6-8 (42.5): Lions 24-23 Falcons 20-16
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Lions and Falcons point differentials are separated by 0.3 ppg, their totals and yields on both sides of the ball are separated by mere yards and their TO differential is separated by 1 TO. So what separates them by four wins? Probably luck, and the Lions seem to have a little bit lately, especially with the return of Jamaal Williams in place of possibly losing DeAndre Swift, and they’ll be indoors despite being on the road. Let’s give the Lions the nod.
Who cares.
Baltimore Ravens 8-6 (+3) v. Cincinnati Bengals 8-6 (45): Bengals 26-24 Bengals 41-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Partly Sunny; low 50s)
Keys: The last time these two teams played it was historic for the Bengals, and here we are on the back end of the season and these two teams are neck and neck for the AFC North divisional crown. Both teams possess good defenses that can stop the run, and both teams can run the ball with the best of them, which likely forces the game into the air, Lamar Jackson’s scrambling notwithstanding, and tips the game in Cincinnati's favor.
This almost seems like a repeat of the two team's first meeting, when the Bengals broke records on their way to beating the once proud and powerful Ravens. Now the Ravens are on the outside looking in and don't scare anyone. Joe Borrow threw for the fourth most yards in NFL history (525) along with four TD passes, 194 yards and two TDs on 12 of passes going to Tee Higgins, who started out fighting for position on a stacked team of WRs and now finds himself a top-20 WR in the NFL. Look out for the Bengals in 2022 if we don't have to look out for them next month.
Los Angeles Rams 10-4 (-3) @ Minnesota Vikings 7-7 (49): Rams 28-23 Rams 30-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Rams are back on a roll and back in the NFC bye conversation, while the inconsistent Vikings just lost Dalvin Cook again.
The Minnesota Vikings aren't the same offense without Dalvin Cook and the once clown-worthy NY Yankees of the NFL have finally hit their stride and have now taken over first in the NFC West since the Arizona Cardinals can't seem to fly ever since Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins were bouncing back and forth. Or was it when Cliff Kingsbury started getting calls to come back to college? I guess we'll find out soon enough...
Buffalo Bills 8-6 (+2) @ New England Patriots 9-5 (43.5): Patriots 24-23 Bills 33-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: 30% rain; low 30s)
Keys: Well, the weather outside isn’t frightful, this time, but it sure isn’t delightful, so we’ll likely have another defensive battle on our hands, although I can guarantee you Mac Jones throws the ball more than three times. The Bills are still loaded without MC Beasley, but so is the Patriots defense, who will be licking their chops to get after Josh Allen with the AFC East title on the line. This should be a close game against two very evenly-matched teams with their relative weaknesses offset by their relative strengths.
The Patriots got the score to 26-21 before Isiah McKenzie made Bills fans forget all about MC Anti-Vax Beasley and it looks like the Patriots may have peaked too early while the Bills got their lumps at just the right time. It'll be a battle for the AFC East going forward, which is something we haven't seen for two decades.
Jacksonville Jaguars 2-12 (+1) @ New York Jets 3-11 (41.5): Jets 24-22 Jets 26-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; low 50s)
Keys: I’m closing in on being done previewing teams that are so hopelessly removed from the playoff race that they don’t even qualify as spoilers, although one could argue this game is worth previewing because the loser is closer to the #1 pick. One could, but not me. I’m also done believing in the Jaguars on any level, especially on the road.
Who Cares, Part II: We Can Actually Care Less
New York Giants 4-10 (+10) @ Philadelphia Eagles 7-7 (40.5): Eagles 24-10 Eagles 34-10
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Sunny; low 50s)
Keys: The Giants have no offense and their defense isn’t good enough to carry the weight, while the Eagles are a superior team with a shot at the playoffs and an eye on revenge for Week 12.
The Eagles did what they were supposed to do and beat up on a hapless Giants team and now they sit at the threshold of the playoffs with Jalen Hurts and Minshew Mania in the wings. Philadelphia could actually be a dangerous spoiler in the playoffs, but I'm not holding my breath.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10-4 (-10) @ Carolina Panthers 5-9 (43): Buccaneers 30-17 Buccaneers 32-6
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)
Keys: After the Buccaneers were embarrassed 9-0 last week by the New Orleans Saints one would imagine Tampa Bay would take care because, let’s be honest, the Buccaneers can ill afford another dud to an inferior team, especially divisionally, because believe it or not the Saints could technically catch Tampa Bay and they hold one hell of a tie-breaker. Carolina is also the last team anyone can make key injury excuses against, so I would expect an egomaniac like Tom Brady to figure it out and get step closer to controlling their own destiny in the NFC using Ronald Jones all the way.
This game was just what the Buccaneers needed, a divisional punching bag to regain their confidence before they enter the playoffs and get destroyed because they haven't been healthy or cohesive all season long. Notice how no one is talking about Tom Brady (18-30 for 1 TD on 232 passing yards)? It's been so nice.
Los Angeles Chargers 8-6 (-10) @ Houston Texans 3-11 (46): Chargers 31-20 Texans 41-29
Sunday, 1:00 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Chargers could’ve easily beaten the Kansas City Chiefs last week, but lost in OT, while the Texans pulled off a dominant underdog win against the only team worse than them in the Jacksonville Jaguars. Don’t think for a minute the Chargers aren’t covering the ten points as they prove they belong in the AFC playoff race.
Being a Chargers fan must be the worst professional sports fan experience known to man.
Chicago Bears 4-10 (+6.5) @ Seattle Seahawks 5-9 (42.5): Seattle 21-15 Bears 25-24
Sunday, 4:05 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: 50% snow; low 30s)
Keys: The snow is probably as confusing in downtown Seattle as the Seahawks already being out of the conversation is to the “12th Man”, but this is in the JAX@NYJ territory, as in not even worth previewing.
Who Cares, Part III: Someone Bought the Rights to the Who Cares Franchise and it Keeps Getting Worse
Pittsburgh Steelers 7-6-1 (+8.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs 10-4 (45.5): Chiefs 27-17 Chiefs 36-10
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Cloudy; high 40s)
Keys: The Chiefs have won seven straight games after starting the season 3-4 and the defense is only allowing a league-best 13.3 ppg during that streak. The Steelers, on the other hand, are the most fraudulent winning team in the league with a -3.1 ppg differential, their only attribute being rushing the QB (2nd sacks), so look for the Chiefs to open up the run against the Steelers porous run defense and set up the pass once they humble TJ Watt and the pass rush.
This is the Steelers team we've been expecting all year long. I suppose one could say the same thing about the Chiefs.
Denver Broncos 7-7 (+1) @ Las Vegas Raiders 7-7 (41.5): Broncos 20-17 Raiders 17-13
Sunday, 4:25PM, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Both of these teams are technically still alive, and both have the heart to get there, but neither have the luck.
Derrick Carr is like the Little Engine That Could except in this story at the end he actually couldn't.
Washington Football Team 6-8 (+10.5) @ Dallas Cowboys 10-4 (47.5): Cowboys 31-20 Cowboys 56-14
Sunday, 8:20 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Cowboys barely covered against the WFT two weeks ago, and still seem to be struggling to click offensively at times, but the WFT has been pulling out every step just to stay afloat and those days are nearing an end.
Dak Prescott (330 passing yards; 4 TDs) dismantled the fraudulent WFT and Washington's season has officially ended as the Cowboys wrapped up the NFC East with two games remaining.
Miami Dolphins 7-7 (+1.5) @ New Orleans Saints 7-7 (38.5): Saints 21-20 Dolphins 20-3
Monday, 8:15 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Both these teams came into 2021 with playoff aspirations, and at times this season that seemed laughable, but here they are back in the mix again, although just barely. The Dolphins can contain Alvin Kamara, which means the game could fall in the hands of Taysom Hill again, which could go either way against a team that blitzes as much as the Dolphins do.
Don't look now, especially you, New England, but the once hapless Dolphins are suddenly 8-7 and one game behind the Patriots for the 6th seed in the AFC. What a difference a couple of weeks makes.
Stay tuned for PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Week 17: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) coming Saturday!
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