2021 NFL SEASON
Tuesday's Gone: Week 13 #NFL Game Reviews
Good luck at the window this season!
Dallas Cowboys 7-4 (-6) @ New Orleans Saints 5-5 (46): Cowboys 24-23 Cowboys 27-17
Thursday, 8:15 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Saints are in a freefall, losers of four straight games, and by increasingly wider margins, but aren't the Cowboys, too? Right on cue Dallas started falling apart the second they were in control of their own destiny, but they face a wounded Saints team that hasn't found its footing since Devon White and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ended Jameis Winston's quasi-MVP campaign Week 8, and apparently, the Saints season. Both can blame part of their problems on attrition, which applies to every team, but not equally. It is interesting that the Cowboys, from one of the worst states in the country, have had the most players to land on the covid-19 list in the entire league. What a shock. Maybe they'd be next-to-last if there were a team in the NFL called the Mississippi Misogynists or the Alabama Racists, but alas, they don't exist. So although the Cowboys have been hit by attrition in more key areas than other teams, no one feels bad outside of Dallas. The Saints could be without Alvin Kamara again, but the Cowboys have given up over 27 ppg in their last four games (1-3) if we take out the one outlier against the hapless Atlanta Falcons, so does it matter? Let's get real, both of these teams are vulnerable, and anything can happen on the short week, so let's say the Saints being home on the short week, despite their poor play the last month and their recently middling opponent, is enough to at least cover the six points.
The whole Taysom Hill thing worked OK if you were putting up prop bets, but not so much if you are the Saints, because he threw 4 INTs and literally handed the game to the Cowboys.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-3 (-10.5) @ Atlanta Falcons 5-6 (50.5): Falcons 33-20 Buccaneers 30-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Buccaneers have the top run defense in the league and the 8th overall defense, and are one sack from being in the top-10 in only 11 games. The Falcons, on the other hand, are simply awful, and in the bottom quarter of the league in most metrics. Somehow they’ve won five games, but they won’t even cover tomorrow.
Tom Brady threw 4 TD passes and strengthened his case for MVP at 44 years old, which, love or hate the guy, is pretty ridiculous.
Arizona Cardinals 9-2 (-7.5) @ Chicago Bears 4-7 (44): Cardinals 27-13 Cardinals 33-22
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: 60% rain; low 60s)
Keys: The Cardinals, coming off the bye, expect Kyler Murray and Deandre Hopkins back tomorrow, which means it’s over before it begins for the Bears, who haven’t played since Thanksgiving.
Kyler Murray returned with a bang, strengthening his own case for MVP, by throwing 2 TDs and running for two more as the Cardinals defense took advantage of four Andy Dalton INTs.
Los Angeles Chargers 6-5 (+3) v. Cincinnati Bengals 7-4 (50.5): Bengals 31-24 Chargers 41-22
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Rain developing; low 60s)
Keys: We’re looking into the future of the AFC here, but as far as the present is concerned, we have a Bengals team that will take advantage of the Chargers porous run defense and a Chargers team that will try to take the pass away from Joe Burrow. Sounds to me like the Bengals will control the clock with the run game while their 4th ranked run defense will force the Chargers into the air, which would normally favor Justin Herbert, but the Bengals rank 10th in sacks, too.
The Chargers book-ended the game with explosions of 16 and 17 points in the 1st and 4th quarters, respectively, and got contributions from all three phases of the game, including 3 passing TDs from Justin Herbert. If the Chargers played like this every week they'd be the team everyone expected them to be this year, but alas, the Bengals and Chargers will take turns the rest of this season disappointing their fans when they most expect it.
Minnesota Vikings 5-6 (-7) @ Detroit Lions 0-10-1 (46.5): Vikings 30-20 Lions 29-27
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: It seems with the short trip and the familiar indoor setting and the infinitely better team the Vikings should make short work of a Lions team ranked 27th in total and scoring defense and only scores fewer than 16 ppg.
This is a website where we discuss betting, so suffice it to say, I lost a 7-team parlay because the Lions upset the Vikings on a walk-off TD. A 7-team parlay.
New York Giants 4-7 (+4) @ Miami Dolphins 5-7 (40.5): Dolphins 23-17 Dolphins 20-9
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)
Keys: The Giants defense came to life last week against their rival Philadelphia Eagles, but the Dolphins have won four straight and seemed hellbent on finishing third in the AFC East. Part of the reason the Dolphins have been rolling lately is their defense and the Giants didn’t have a great offense when Daniel Jones was playing, which he won’t be Sunday.
The Dolphins beat a Daniel Jones-less Giants team that handed the ball to Saquon Barkley a whopping 11 times.
Philadelphia Eagles 5-7 (-6.5) @ New York Jets 3-8 (45): Eagles 27-20 Eagles 33-18
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; low 40s)
Keys: Woof. The Eagles seemed poised to make a playoff push until their offense fell flat on their faces against the New York Giants, but the Jets are absolutely terrible (worst overall & scoring defense; worst TO differential; worst point differential), and the Eagles didn’t have to leave MetLife Stadium if they didn’t want to so they should be plenty rested and familiar with their surroundings. I can’t imagine the defensive-minded Robert Saleh is long for East Rutherford at this rate.
MINSHEW MANIA!!!
Indianapolis Colts 6-6 (-10) @ Houston Texans 2-9 (45.5): Colts 30-17 Colts 31-0
Sunday, 1:00 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: This one is pretty obvious: Run Jonathan Taylor and watch the Texans lose the game.
Jonathan Taylor ran for 143 yards and 2 TDs on 32 carries and and had the Texans beat four-and-a-half-minutes into the game.
Washington Football Team 5-6 (+1.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders 6-5 (47.5): Raiders 27-24 Football Team 17-15
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: I’m not really sure what to make of this Football Team, pun intended. Tyler Heinicke is like Gardner Minshew from two years ago when you didn’t believe in him until he proved you wrong on Sunday. Washington has won three straight games since shocking the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the world Week 10, while the Raiders were in danger of losing four straight before they pulled off an OT win against the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving. The WFT will use their 3rd ranked run defense to force Derek Carr and the Darren Waller-less Raiders team into the air, which doesn’t exactly play into their hands, but unless DeSean Jackson balls out again it won’t make much a difference without Waller. Washington is banged up themselves, so it’s anyone’s game, and the more I think about it, I like DeSean’s chances with Carr’s heart.
The Football Team is on another level with Tyler Heinicke at the wheel and making a serious run at a wild card spot, assuming they don't pass the Cowboys at some point outright. This was another parlay buster.
Jacksonville Jaguars 2-9 (+13) @ Los Angeles Rams 7-4 (49): Rams 31-17 Rams 37-7
Sunday, 4:05 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: This is just what the doctor ordered for the Rams. If they lose this game it’s on to 2022 and the future-less Rams don’t have many “It’s on to next year” left.
The Jaguars were who we thought they were. Matthew Stafford also got 3 TD passes to three different WRs, including OBJ so we don't have to hear about all week (Or will we?) and Sony Michel rushed for 121 yards and a TD on 24 carries.
Baltimore Ravens 8-3 (-4.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 5-5-1 (44): Ravens 24-17 Steelers 20-19
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Chance rain; mid-50s)
Keys: The Ravens are in line to put Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers out of their misery, because the Steelers defense is banged up and that’s all they have left. The Ravens would have the NFL MVP again if Lamar Jackson didn’t have 12 INTs and 2 FUM already, but alas, he does.
The balls on John Harbaugh.
San Francisco 49ers 6-5 (-3.5) @ Seattle Seahawks 3-8 (45.5): 49ers 24-20 Seahawks 30-23
Sunday, 4:25 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: Chance rain; mid-40s)
Keys: The 49ers defense is banged up, but so is every RB that plays for Seattle, so the attrition is a wash. The 49ers are only 3.5-point favorites here because America can’t believe that Russell Wilson is still not 100% and can’t win games without any weapons besides Tyler Lockett, no run game and the worst total defense in the NFL, although strangely Seattle has the 7th ranked scoring defense. Imagine only giving up 20.5 ppg and still having a -1.5 ppg point differential with Russell Wilson as your QB? Yikes.
Both teams committed 3 TOs in this sloppy NFC West former showdown, but let's just say Jimmy Garoppolo's 2 INTs were the difference and let's just leave it at that.
Denver Broncos 6-5 (+9.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs 7-4 (47): Chiefs 24-20 Chiefs 22-9
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Breezy; high 60s)
Keys: There have been whispers about an upset, which is not only funny, but just regression-to-the-mean talk. The Chiefs have won 12 straight games against the Broncos and suddenly have a stifling defense to match their potentially-explosive offense. With he way the Chiefs defense has been playing, and no Melvin Gordon III for the Broncos on the road in Kansas City, it’s safe to say the Chiefs will score enough points to extend their lead in a clogged AFC West even against one of the best defenses in the NFL (3rd scoring; 9th total). Covering might be a different story.
The Broncos held the ball longer and gained more yards and first downs, but Teddy Bridgewater threw 2 INTs and one of them was returned by Daniel Sorenson for a TD. If you take that TD away we're left with a Chiefs offense that has to be scaring the shit out of their fans at this point.
New England Patriots 8-4 (+2.5) @ Buffalo Bills 7-4 (42.5): Patriots 24-23 Patriots 14-10
Monday, 8:15 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: 40% winter storm; low 30s)
Keys: The game of the week might be the game of the year so far and it couldn’t come with more story lines, most important of which being the weather. A mess is forecast in Buffalo Monday night, but before you start looking up where Mac Jones is from (Florida) or where he played college ball (Alabama) to see if he can handle the snow relative to Josh Allen, who was apparently born in the North Pole, lest we forget these types of games are won on the ground and on the defensive side of the ball (NE: 15.8 ppg; BUF: 16.5 ppg), and most notably, the TO battle (NE: 2nd; BUF: 3rd), in which the Patriots excel at two of three and only trail the Bills by 3 rypg. I’m being half facetious because the Bills are actually the better total defense (BUF: 1st; NE: 4th) and have the more dynamic offense by far, but the truth of the matter is the Bills haven’t beaten many good teams. We’ll find out a lot about these two teams in the next month as they play each other twice in the next 2-3 games depending on who you are (Patriots have a Week 14 bye). The Bills are back on track after their win on Thanksgiving and will be home in quintessential Buffalo near-winter weather, but the Patriots were forged in this weather and have the most electric defense we’ve seen in some time. I’m taking the red hot Patriots, barely, to keep their streak alive in a rare epic AFC East showdown.
The Patriots defense (2 sacks; 2 FUM REC) outlasted the Bills defense (1 FUM REC) in some of the toughest conditions to play football in and took full control of the AFC East again after a brief hiatus. These teams face off again in just a few weeks and I imagine Mac Jones will attempt more than three passes when the times comes.
Stay tuned for PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA Week 14: #NFL Game Predictions (w/spreads &analysis) coming Thursday!
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