2021 NFL SEASON
Good luck at the window this season!
Pittsburgh Steelers 6-5-1 (+3.5) @ Minnesota Vikings 5-7 (44.5): Vikings 24-20 Vikings 36-28
Thursday, 8:15 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Vikings were embarrassed last week, becoming the only team to lose to the Detroit Lions in a season’s worth of games for Detroit (Last win: Week 13, 2020). Fun fact: The Lions took the Vikings to the brink Week 17 last season, losing 37-35. A lot hinges on Dalvin Cook’s status (game time decision), especially with Adam Thielen out, but Kirk Cousins is quietly having his own MVP season (279 pypg; 68%; 25 TDs; 3 INTs) if not for the Vikings inconsistent, and at times horrific, play. The Steelers actually tied the aforementioned Lions this season, and things aren’t much better in the Steel City. The only thing the Steelers do well is sack the QB (1st), apparently enough to win six games, and teams like the Vikings paint a clear picture of why (MIN 31st sacks allowed). The Steelers defense is banged up and will be facing one of the better offenses in the league, especially if Cook is a go, but if he’s not, and they can’t protect Cousins, don’t be surprised if the Steelers not only cover, but win. That’s a lot of ifs, but you can’t spell “NFL” without “f”, which is as hard to make sense of as this game.
Dalvin Cook (205 rushing yards & 2 TDs on 27 carries) went crazy and helped the Vikings jump out to a 29-0 lead midway through the 3rd quarter before the Steelers scored 20 unanswered points of their own and made it a game through the middle of the the 4th.
Baltimore Ravens 8-4 (+3) @ Cleveland Browns 6-6 (42.5): Ravens 24-23 Browns 24-22
Sunday, 1:00 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Sunny; mid-40s)
Keys: Maybe I’m missing something but unless Lamar Jackson is out the Browns giving three at home is a little odd, especially considering the Ravens have the NFL’s top run defense, which is where the Browns excel offensively (1st ypr; 3rd ypg). Maybe it’s the rate at which the Ravens turn the ball over (30th TO differential: -8). I wouldn’t think too hard about the Browns last meeting in Baltimore a few weeks ago, or the fact the Browns are well rested after the bye and just played the Ravens, but I would take the points and Baltimore.
There's nothing like almost calling a game perfectly, but wrong at the same time. The Browns were up 24-6 at the half on a Lamar Jackson-less Ravens team, but somehow Baltimore scored 16-unanswered second-half points and covered.
Jacksonville Jaguars 2-10 (+8.5) @ Tennessee Titans 8-4 (43.5): Titans 27-21 Titans 20-0
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Sunny; low 50s)
Keys: I could certainty see the Jaguars scoring points against a banged up Titans defense, and maybe even covering the 8.5 points, but the Jaguars aren’t winning.
I wasn't privy to the Urban Meyer "Loser, loser, loser, loser, loser, loser, loser, loser, loser, loser...I'm a winner" speech or I would not have had the Jaguars covering anything.
Oakland Raiders 6-6 (+10) @ Kansas City Chiefs 8-4 (48): Chiefs 31-20 Chiefs 48-9
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Sunny; low 50s)
Keys: These two teams played week 13 last year and the records were nearly the same, the spread was identical and the O/U was three points higher because the Chiefs were averaging over 30 ppg. What’s my point? Not much has changed in a calendar year and the Raiders will be missing their best offensive player. The Chiefs should continue to gain defensive confidence against a weakened Raiders offense and Patrick Mahomes might finally get back to form against a banged up Raiders secondary.
The Raiders got foolish and the Chiefs took notice and tore them apart in every facet of the game, including getting diced by Patrick Mahomes (258 yards & 2 TDs on 20-24 passing).
New Orleans Saints 5-7 (-5.5) @ New York Jets 3-9 (43): Saints 24-17 Saints 30-9
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; low 40s)
Keys: These teams are a combined 1-9 in their last ten games and the Jets are actually the team with the one win. The Saints are once again missing key guys on both sides of the ball, but the Jets are just awful. Imagine being on your third QB, and having some of your two best players on each side of the ball missing and still being 5.5-point favorites on the road? Well, call it the Alvin Kamara effect. Also, things are not well in New Jersey.
The Saints rushed for 203 yards and 3 TDs on 44 carries, including 120 yard and 1 TD on 27 Alvin Kamara carries in his triumphant return against the woeful Jets in a likely too little too late scenario.
Dallas Cowboys 8-4 (-4.5) @ Washington Football Team 6-6 (48): Cowboys 28-21 Cowboys 27-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather: Sunny; low 50s)
Keys: The Football Team has been hit by covid so the match-up no one cared about a few weeks ago went from an interesting game back down to a predictable one assuming the Cowboys don’t completely implode as the stakes get higher.
The Cowboys went up 24-0 at the half before letting the WFT climb back into it. At the end of the day Dak Prescott threw 2 INTs, Ezekiel Elliot (12 carries for 45 rushing yards) had a subpar day again and the difference in the game was a Cowboys defensive TD (returned fumble).
Atlanta Falcons 5-7 (-2.5) @ Carolina Panthers 5-7 (41): Falcons 23-20 Falcons 29-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Sunny; low 50s)
Keys: The Panthers have a new play-caller, Cam Newton at the helm and three offensive linemen out so the Falcons giving 2.5 points on the road makes some sense, especially with the Panthers defense playing shaky the past few weeks.
This game went according to prediction. In other news, the Atlanta Falcons remain in the playoff hunt, although you could technically say the same thing about the Carolina Panthers.
Seattle Seahawks 4-8 (-8.5) @ Houston Texans 2-10 (40.5): Seahawks 24-14 Seahawks 33-13
Sunday, 1:00 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: This game is barely worth analyzing, but I wouldn’t count out the Russell Wilson-Tyler Lockett connection against a terrible Texans defense, which is the only thing the Seahawks have going for them other than Wilson, Lockett and DK Metcalk, for whatever that’s worth.
The Seahawks finally put a great game together in all three phases of the game against the lowly Texans, and ruined the under for PFM.
Detroit Lions 1-10-1 (+11) @ Denver Broncos 6-6 (42): Broncos 24-14 Broncos 38-10
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Mostly Sunny; low 60s)
Keys: Other than a hiccup here or there the Broncos defense has been solid most of the year, while the Lions have been laughable. Their win last week against the Minnesota Vikings, their first of the season, was their second-highest point total, by far, since Week 1 and six of the points came on the last play of the game. It doesn’t seem like the Broncos score enough points to cover an 11-point spread against anyone, and the Lions point differential has dipped below 10 ppg, so 11 points seems high, especially considering the Denver defense could be missing some key guys.
Why did I believe in the Lions?
New York Giants 4-8 (+9) @ Los Angeles Chargers 7-5 (43): Chargers 27-17 Chargers 37-21
Sunday, 4:05 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Chargers are at a point in the season where they could turn a corner and end up hosting a Wild Card game, but they are among the most inconsistent teams in the NFL since their bye Week 7, especially given the talent level, so part of me expects the depleted Giants to upset Los Angeles. There’s too much at stake against a vastly inferior Giants team for the Chargers to not take care of business at home.
The Chargers were up 37-7 midway through the 4th quarter lest you think the Giants were in the game at any point.
San Francisco 49ers 6-6 (-1.5) v. Cincinnati Bengals 7-5 (48.5): Bengals 27-24 49ers 26-23 OT
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Sunny; low 50s)
Keys: The NFL seems to be getting harder and harder to call by the week and it’s because of games and teams like these. Injuries, no name back ups that spring to action, and rising stars that are as unpredictable as the weather are all factors in most of us having no clue. Both of these teams are clinging to playoff spots, but the difference here could be the home field advantage and the pass rush advantage the Bengals have (t-4th in sacks).
Hand it to the Bengals, who came back from down 20-6 to take the lead in OT before Jimmy G threw the walk-off TD pass to Brandon Aiyuk.
Buffalo Bills 7-5 (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-3 (53.5): Buccaneers 27-24 Buccaneers 33-27 OT
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Mostly Sunny; low 80s)
Keys: The Bills are in a tough predicament here. The weather and the fewest pass attempts in decades masked the fact Tre’Davious White is gone, which seriously effects the defense as a whole, but especially against a dynamic offense like the Buccaneers. Now the Bills go from a winter storm in Buffalo against their bitter division rivals to balmy South Florida to face MVP front-runner Tom Brady, who just happened to create that bitter rivalry with the New England Patriots the past 20 years. The Buccaneers are trying to keep pace with the Arizona Cardinals and the Green Bay Packers for the top seed in the NFC, but the Bills are just trying to tread water in the AFC playoff race after the last few games of mediocrity. Story lines aside, the Buccaneers (top run defense) will try to force the Bills one-dimensional and into the air and try to get after Josh Allen (t-4th sacks), but the Bills give up the 4th fewest sacks. Buffalo is about to find out just how bad the White injury is.
The Buccaneers held a commanding 27-10 lead midway through the 4th quarter before the Bills snapped and mounted a furious comeback in nine minutes to send the game to OT, where Tom Brady worked his magic and ultimately won the game. The bigger issue in Buffalo is the health of Josh Allen's lower leg, which was wrapped in a boot leaving the game.
Chicago Bears 4-8 (+11.5) @ Green Bay Packers 9-3 (43): Packers 30-17 Packers 45-30
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Clear; low 30s)
Keys: Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears, right? Enough said.
He's not lying.
Los Angeles Rams 8-4 (+2.5) @ Arizona Cardinals 10-2 (51.5): Rams 28-27 Rams 30-23
Monday, 8:15 PM, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: We got quite a treat on prime time Week 14, first the BUF@TB game on SNF and now this gem on MNF. The Rams had been tumbling off the cliff lately until they got right against the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars last week, while the Cardinals have been soaring to new heights, but that could be over Monday night. The Rams literally can’t afford to lose to Arizona afford after losing to the Cardinals Week 4, and can ill afford to lose any more ground in the NFC. This game will be about who gets to the QB more (Sacks – LAR: 5th & ARZ: 7th), and I have a feeling the Rams step up, on both sides of the ball, especially after Sony Michel’s outing last week in the wake of Darrell Henderson’s absence (out again). Arizona is home and the better team in all three phases of the game, but call it a hunch. I could even see the infamous OBJ being the difference in the game. It’s now or never for the Rams and they’ve put far too much into the now for it to be never.
Two Kyler Murray INTs killed the Cardinals and the Rams shortened the gap between the two NFC West teams to one game.
Stay tuned for Week 15: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) TNF EDITION coming Thursday!
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