2019 NFL SEASON
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Week 1: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) OPENING
WEEK of the 100TH NFL SEASON EDITION
2018 regular season totals:
167-87-2 .652 (WINS); 119-129-8 .480 (ATS);
140-113-3 .553 (O/U)
Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis based on the
following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA);
Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD
efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd); Turnover
ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S);
Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All images from Google with permission to reuse without license* Statistical
sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football
Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under
figures are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider.
NEW TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON
< Drake voice >
"TOP 5 TOP 5 TOP 5"
Pro Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week denoted by an asterisk (*) & watch the money pile up all season!
Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers is still elite, but his days are numbered. New head coach Matt LaFleur's days on Earth barely outnumber Rodgers. Buckle up, Packers fans.
Thursday, 8:20 PM, Soldier
Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Partly cloudy; high 60s)
Keys: Aaron Rodgers is healthy again to
start the 2019 season, but Khalil Mack could ruin another Packers season on
opening night if he gets a clean hit on the fragile quarterback. This highly-touted
Bears defense could give the Packers young new head coach Matt LaFleur fits because Chicago's defense
matches up well with every single Green Bay weapon. Regardless, these teams are
evenly matched, hence the Bears getting three points at home. Go with the
elite defense to win, but not necessarily to cover.
Keys: Holy sh*t the situation in Oakland has become
hilarious for everyone outside of Oakland, CA and Antonio Brown’s inner circle.
Even if the Raiders were on track with Brown I wouldn’t hold out much hope for one
of the worst teams in the NFL, but this team is in shambles already and the
season hasn’t even begun. The Broncos are scary on the defensive front and have
enough weapons to score on these hapless Raiders.
Tennessee Titans 0-0 (+5.5) v. Cleveland Browns
0-0 (45.5): Browns 27-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, First Energy
Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Partly
cloudy; low 70s)
Keys: Titans kicker Ryan Succop was put on IR Wednesday, which isn’t the end
of the world, but you don’t want to lose your veteran kicker 96 hours before
opening day, especially one that led the NFL in FG attempts just two seasons
ago. Regardless, an overhyped Browns team hosts an underhyped Titans team that
matches up very well with them on both sides of the ball, so unless you think losing
Ryan Succop and Marcus Mariota looking over his shoulder are worth over 5.5
points, Tennessee is the play.
Baltimore Ravens 0-0 (-7) @ Miami Dolphins 0-0
(37.5): Ravens
20-15
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium,
Miami, FL (Weather: 20% storms; high 80s)
Keys: The Dolphins essentially waved the white flag for 2019 after trading
Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills, but giving seven points on the road on opening
week with a sophomore quarterback whose only flaws are accuracy and an
inability to get down before taking on big hits is a tough task. The Ravens
win, but the Dolphins cover the big opening week spread at home.
*Atlanta Falcons 0-0 (+4) @ Minnesota Vikings 0-0 (47.5):
Falcons 24-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium,
Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The
Falcons come into Minneapolis highly talented at QB and WR and an offensive
line mixed with All-Pros and rookies; the Vikings host Atlanta with elite
talent at RB and WR and highly rated left tackle Riley Reiff and a rookie at center,
which will be a problem against the Falcons Grady Jarrett, one of the best
interior linemen in the NFL. The Vikings defense is more hyped, but the Falcons
have talent on defense, too. * = Falcons cover
NY Jets QB Sam Darnold might want to think about just handing it off to newly acquired RB Le'Veon Bell against this great Buffalo Bills defense.
Buffalo Bills 0-0 (+3) @ New York Jets 0-0 (41):
Bills 20-17
Sunday,
1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; high 70s)
Keys: In yet another evenly-matched game in the
early afternoon slate of opening week games, both AFC East teams possess
mediocre offenses with sophomore QBs and both teams have elite talent in the
defensive backfield. That could spell trouble for either team, but the Bills also
have elite talent among their front seven (e.g. Jerry Hughes), which means
Sam Darnold could be in for a tough opening week at home.
*Washington Team
0-0 (+9.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles 0-0
(45.5): Eagles
30-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lincoln Financial
Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Sunny;
low 80s)
Keys: The Eagles enter 2019 wings spread and beaks out, but 9.5 points on
opening week is a lot of points. Washington is awful and Philadelphia is
loaded, but it’s hard to trust any line that large on opening day, right? It’s
not like Washington has to travel far. Well, upon further review the highest
rated players on Washington are an aging Adrian Peterson, often unavailable
Jordan Reed and Ryan Kerrigan, who barely out-grades the aforementioned players.
In other words, even if they go to rookie Dwayne Haskins for a splash or to
shake things up, he has no one to throw it to. Spreads of nearly 10 points are usually
red flags for this bettor, especially Week 1, but not when the teams are so
mismatched and the talent is all on one side of the field. * = Eagles cover
Los Angeles Rams 0-0 (-3) @ Carolina Panthers 0-0 (50): Rams 30-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Bank of America
Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Sunny;
high 80s)
Keys: Las Vegas doesn’t envision much of a Super Bowl hangover for the Rams Week
1 considering they’re traveling across the country to face the Panthers and are
giving three points. The truth is the Panthers are no longer defensive
juggernauts and the Rams offense are. Add Aaron Donald to the mix against a Cam Newton already facing health questions and the spread becomes clear.
Kansas City Chiefs 0-0 (-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 0-0 (52): Chiefs 30-27
Sunday, 1:00 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium,
Jacksonville, FL (Weather: Sunny; low 90s)
Keys: The Jags
come into 2019 with a lot to prove for what remains a formidable defense.
Unfortunately, they’re running into the league’s top offense led by the
reigning MVP in Patrick Mahomes. The Jags mediocre offense should be able to score
against the poor Chiefs defense, even with the addition of Frank Clark to Chris Jones, so perhaps the Jags cover, but they won’t win.
The Indianapolis Colts
had high hopes for their 2019 season before Andrew Luck suddenly retired.
*Indianapolis Colts 0-0 (+6.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers 0-0 (44.5): Chargers
24-21
Sunday,4:05
PM, Stub Hub Field, Carson, CA (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)
Keys: There’s no doubt Andrew Luck retiring was
probably the worst thing that could’ve happened to a dark horse Super Bowl
contender weeks before the season started, but Luck’s 2018 success wasn’t a
solo act. The Colts finally got their act together and put a decent offensive
line around what is now Jacoby Brissett. The same weapons exist for
Indianapolis, but will they get open against this very good Chargers defense?
Will Brissett avoid the Chargers elite pass rush? The Chargers offense could be
without Melvin Gordon, but Austin Eckler is a fine replacement. Whether Eckler
or Gordon, the Chargers could have a tough time moving the ball against a good Colts
defense with their own elite pass rush after signing Justin Houston this
off-season. * = Colts cover
*Cincinnati Bengals 0-0 (+9.5) @ Seattle Seahawks 0-0 (44): Seahawks
24-13
Sunday, 4:05 PM, CenturyLink Field,
Seattle, WA (Weather: Chance rain; low 70s)
Keys: The Bengals are one of the worst offenses in the NFL, at least
according to former Bengals WR Chris Collinsworth’s investment darling Pro Football
Focus, and they face a Seahawks defense that hasn’t really faded despite the departure
of key All-Pro defenders. Trading for Jadeveon Clowney days before the season
starts certainly helps. The Bengals still have talent on the defensive front (Geno Atkins; Carlos Dunlap) and in the defensive backfield (Jessie Bates), despite a terrible LB crew, and
the Seahawks remain one of the most offensive o-lines in the NFL besides left
tackle Duane Brown, so Russell Wilson might still be running for his life Week
1. The bottom line is the Seahawks will score enough to win and the Bengals won’t
score enough to cover. * = Seahawks cover
New York Giants 0-0 (+7) @ Dallas Cowboys 0-0 (45.5): Cowboys
27-21
Sunday, 4:25
PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Now that Ezekiel Elliot is back from his
hold-out we have nothing to talk about. Well, except for the next round of
Cowboys contracts. Truth be told, the Cowboys are one of the five best teams in
the NFL on paper, especially with Elliot back. The Giants might be one of the
worst teams in the NFL on paper or on anything and got worse this off-season
when they traded Odell Beckham Jr. Well, the latter remains to be seen.
Regardless, NFC East games are always toss-ups considering the deep rivalries
that have developed over the decades, especially Week 1. New York could run Saquon Barkley to death and chew the clock up enough the Cowboys don’t cover, but
Dallas might have the best LB crew in the league. Dallas is also 4-0 against
New York when Elliot plays since Elliot came into the league and this Giants
team isn’t talented enough on the road to make things any different this time
around.
Detroit Lions 0-0 (-2.5)
@ Arizona Cardinals 0-0 (47): Lions
24-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Univ. of Phoenix
Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The
Cardinals might be the worst team in the NFL and certainly have the worst offensive
line in the league, which will be tough for #1 pick Kyler Murray. Hey, the
Cardinals can always tank and then draft Jalen Hurts #1 next year. Shout out
Sooners! Joking aside this Detroit Lions defense is sneaky good, with highly
rated players on the defensive front (Tre Flowers; Damon Harrison Jr. & Da'Shawn Hand) and in the defensive backfield (Tracy Walker; Darius Slay), which
makes things even more difficult for Murray. The Cardinals have veteran skill guys
like David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald to assist Murray through his first game,
but he’ll be running for his life against a team with equal weapons on the
other side, but with a veteran gunslinger in Matthew Stafford throwing the
ball.
All eyes will be on Kyler
Murray Sunday, the Arizona Cardinals 5’9” QB they took first in the 2019 NFL
Draft, although it may be hard to see him.
San Francisco 49ers 0-0 (+1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0-0 (50):
Bucs 23-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Raymond James
Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Sunny;
low 90s)
Keys: The Bruce Arians era begins in Tampa Bay and time will tell how long
it takes for Jameis Winston to drive Arians insane eating his hands. The 49ers
are the expert’s sleeper team to do what, I have no idea. The 49ers play in one
of the youngest and most talented divisions in the NFL and paid Jimmy Garoppolo
$135M just to see him injure himself and have no-name Nick Mullens perform
better in his wake. The 49ers spent big money on two RBs just to hand the keys to
Matt Breida, an undrafted free agent making pennies in the dollar compared to
his peers. The money is irrelevant, of course, but the decisions leading up to
it obviously aren’t. On paper the Bucs are the better offense and defense and
Arians’ absence for a year doesn’t rank him that far behind alleged genius Kyle
Shannahan, so even if the game is a pick the spread makes no sense for a 49ers
team traveling across the country Week 1.
Pittsburgh Steelers 0-0 (+5.5) @ New England Patriots
0-0 (50.5): Patriots 27-21
Sunday, 8:20PM, Gillette
Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Sunny;
mid-70s)
Keys: The biggest stories here are whether a 42-year old Tom Brady can keep
this up while Ben Roethlisberger is playing without Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell for the first time in years. It remains to be seen whether or not the
Steelers can once again replace All-Pro WRs with blossoming super stars, this
time Ju Ju Smith-Schuster, or whether Flash Gordon can stay off the weed long
enough to become a serious weapon for New England. One thing is clear: These
remain two of the best teams in the NFL, not just the AFC, and this game
represents one of the best match ups of opening week. The key to this game will
be the Patriots offensive line, especially with new additions to the offensive line days before the season opener due to injury, against the Steelers pass rush and whether New
England can pound the Pittsburgh defense into submission with their against-the-grain
run attack in an air raid era. Oh Bill Belichick, you sneaky bastard.
*Houston Texans 0-0 (+7) @ New Orleans Saints
0-0 (53.5): Texans 28-27
Monday, 8:10 PM,
Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Probably the Game of the Week, I have no idea
how the Texans are getting seven points. The Saints have lost five straight season
openers leading back to 2014, including two home openers (2016;2018).
The Saints are no longer door mats on defense, but the Texans are loaded with
weapons, including Duke Johnson, who replaced the injured Lamar Miller and
continues to fly under the radar as one of the most productive backs in the
NFL, especially catching passes, not that Houston needs help with that. Deshaun Watson is fast becoming what Drew Brees has been for a decade, but with legs.
Speaking of Brees, the Saints offense is well-known, but people have forgotten
about this stout Texans defense, which was good enough they didn’t have a problem
letting go of Jadeveon Clowney. In fact, the Texans defense matches up better
against the Saints offense than the Saints defense matches up against the
Texans offense. This game is the LOCK OF THE WEEK for the Houston
Texans. * = Texans cover
Denver Broncos 0-0 (-1) @ Oakland Raiders 0-0 (43):
Broncos 23-17
Monday, 10:20 PM, Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, CA (Weather: Clear; mid-60s)
Stay tuned for Tuesday’s Gone: Week 1 #NFL Game Reviews OPENING WEEK 100TH
NFL SEASON EDITION coming Wednesday!
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