2019 NFL SEASON
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Week 19: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
DIVISIONAL ROUND EDITION
DIVISIONAL ROUND EDITION
2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:
165-89-1 .650 (WINS); 137-110-8 .555 (ATS); 134-115-6
.538 (O/U)
TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:
48-23-3 (.676)
2020 NFL PLAYOFFS
0-4 .000 (WINS); 2-2 .500 (ATS); 0-4 .000 (O/U)
2020 NFL PLAYOFFS
0-4 .000 (WINS); 2-2 .500 (ATS); 0-4 .000 (O/U)
Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis
based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points
against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA);
Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd);
Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S);
Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All
images from Google with permission to reuse without license* Statistical
sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football
Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures
are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider
NEW
TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON
<
Drake voice >
"TOP
5 TOP 5 TOP 5"
Pro
Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week for either the spread OR O/U denoted by an asterisk (*). Roll with our Top 5
and watch the money pile up all season!
Anthony Barr will need to step it up if he's going to help the Vikings beat the mighty 49ers at home.
Minnesota
Vikings (6)
10-6 (+7)
@ San Francisco 49ers (1)
13-3
(44.5):
49ers
27-21
Saturday,
4:35
PM, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather:
Clearing;
mid-50s)
Keys: How
do I put this? The 49ers are better on every single level. Offense.
Defense. Special teams. Coaching. In fact, Kyle Shanahan used to be
Kirk Cousin’s coach. You like that?
In
fact, the only area
the Vikings even compete with the 49ers in is pass rush: Both
teams rank 5th
with 48 sacks on the season.
One
might think these defenses rank out similarly, but not when we take
into account SoS, in which the 49ers was nearly twice as difficult.
Now,
I’m
clearly no expert, having gone 0-4 last week and only 2-2 ATS, but
there’s not that much to dissect with this game. The Vikings roll
into San Francisco halfway
across the country with
a
defense not quite as stout as it once was and two stars on offense
that aren’t 100% (Dalvin
Cook; Adam Thielen).
The 49ers roll out of fresh bed fresh as a daisy with the highest
rated player in the NFL according
to PFF (George
Kittle)
and the most depth at RB of any team in the league. Seven
points is a lot to lay in any NFL game, especially a playoff game,
and especially to a team coming off a playoff win by a team that
hasn’t played in two weeks, but the 49ers winning is likely a
foregone conclusion.
The question on everyone's mind is whether or not likely 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson can not only handle the rain, but the long rest.
Saturday,
8:15
PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather:
70% rain; low 60s)
Keys: Can
the Titans slay two giants back-to-back? Well, the Patriots were
largely overrated giants this season and the Ravens haven’t played
meaningful football in nearly three weeks. That could be trouble, because
not only is Baltimore relying on a well-oiled machine, some
of the parts are
broken and might not be repaired by Sunday (Mark
Ingram; Mark
Andrews).
The
Titans might seem like the dark horse favorite here, but their
offense, one of the best in the NFL the second half of the season,
was held to 14 against the Patriots on Ryan Tannehill’s 72 passing
yards; Derrick Henry’s 182-yard performance was allowed by Bill
Belichick so he could focus on the Titans air attack, which was
stifled. The Ravens rank out as one of the better teams in the past
few decades,
let alone this season, but things could be much different with a
sizable break, pouring
rain
and key pieces missing; losing Ingram could be devastating. The
Ravens have locked down opposing passing games since they traded for
Marcus Peters, so it’ll be up to Henry again, although the Ravens
largely lock that down, too, ranking
in the top-10 in attempts, yards and TDs (21st
YPA, however).
The
bottom line is the Ravens likely win due to their suffocating defense
and home field advantage, and the fact that their scoring and yardage
offense and scoring and yardage defense rank an eye-pleasing 1st,
2nd,
3rd
and 4th,
but like we talked about with the MINvsSF game, 9.5 points is a crazy
amount, especially under these weather and rest conditions. Mortgage
on the Titans time?
Will he screw it up?
Houston
Texans (4)
10-6 (+9.5)
@ Kansas City Chiefs (2)
12-4 (51):
Chiefs
31-23
Sunday,
3:05
PM,
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather:
Mostly
Sunny;
high 30s)
Keys: The
Texans narrowly escaped with a win in the Wild Card Round, mounting
one of the largest playoff comebacks in NFL history against the
Buffalo Bills, but as impressive as that is, the Bills offense isn’t the
Chiefs offense and New Era Stadium isn’t Arrowhead Stadium. Josh
Allen also isn’t Patrick Mahomes, but Deshaun Watson is. In fact,
the two QBs, taken two spots from each other in the 2017 NFL draft, is arguably more dynamic than Mahomes, although no one
is arguing who has the better arm talent. In addition, both QBs have
struggled relatively this season, whether via injury or lack of
support. Coaching plays a large role, too, as both coaches have
famously fumbled away home playoff games. The
Chiefs have an elite passing game, and believe it or not, a
quasi-elite passing defense. The Chiefs also rank 11th
with 45 sacks. The Texans are none of these things. Much like Russell
Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks, the Texans are too Watson reliant,
which is ironic considering NRG Stadium used to be called Reliant Stadium, and this
Chiefs defense is good enough to stifle Watson, and, therefore, the
Texans. However, I hate these large point spreads and even this match
up isn’t lopsided enough to warrant nearly 10 points.
It's Russell Wislon or bust for the Seattle Seahawks, but what else is new since the fall of the Legion of Boom?
Seattle
Seahawks (5)
11-5 (+4.5)
@ Green Bay Packers (2)
13-3
(46.5):
Seahawks
23-21
Sunday,
6:40
PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather:
Wintry mix;
high
20s)
Keys: Introducing
the two most overrated teams in the NFL. We’ve talked all year
about the Seahawks mediocrity disguised by Russell Wilson’s polish,
but before you go thinking I’m about to write the same thing about
Green Bay, think again. The Packers might have won the same amount of
games with Alex Smith because Aaron Rodgers has become the most
glorified game manager since 2001-2003 Tom Brady. But
Aaron Rodgers doesn’t throw any INTs! Right,
because he doesn’t take any chances. It’s hard to throw INTs when
you never take risks. If you think I’m kidding look no further than
the Packers middle-of-the-pack offense, which is anchored by that
middle-of-the-road passing game (17th
ATS; 16th YDS; 14th
TDs; 16th
YPA).
The
running game is literally no better, ranking almost identically
across the board, despite Aaron Jones, a nearly 1,100-yard rusher
with 16 TDs on the season. No, the Packers owe most of their season
to a decent defense (9th ranked scoring defense) and one of the easiest schedules in the NFL.
Even so, Green Bay’s Expected W-L Record was 9.7-6.3, which would
have been good enough for a six-seed, not one of the two byes awarded
the NFC. Hey, at least it’s better than Seattle’s Expected W-L
Record of 8.2-7.8, which means, technically, the Seahawks should’ve
missed the playoffs completely. However, you can ask Billy Beane
about the numbers – they don’t always tell the whole story, hence
the Seahawks v. the Packers in the Divisional Round of the NFL
playoffs. Don’t be fooled by the Seahawks defensive performance against Josh
McCown, because they’ve
been mostly abysmal, but we just talked about the Packers offense in
the same light. So what gives? At this point in 2020 I’m not
betting on Rodgers anymore, but I'm certainly not betting against
Russell Wilson and it’s about as simple as that. Like a “pack of
badgers”, what ever the hell that mix of Wilson’s college teams is supposed to mean.
Maybe
it means it’ll feel like a home game for Wilson, which only
supports my assertions.
Stay tuned for Tuesday's Gone: Week 19 #NFL Game Reviews DIVISIONAL ROUND EDITION coming Wednesday!
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