2019 NFL SEASON
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Week 14: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
SUNDAY EDITION
SUNDAY EDITION
2019 NFL SEASON WEEK 13:
8-8 .500 (WINS); 10-6 .625 (ATS); 7-9 .438 (O/U)
2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:
125-65-1 .658 (WINS); 103-84-4 .551 (ATS); 104-84-3
.553 (O/U)
WEEK 13 TOP 5 GAMES:
N/A
TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:
37-21-2 (.638)
Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis
based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points
against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA);
Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd);
Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S);
Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All
images from Google with permission to reuse without license* Statistical
sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football
Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures
are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider
NEW
TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON
<
Drake voice >
"TOP
5 TOP 5 TOP 5"
Pro
Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week for either the spread OR O/U denoted by an asterisk (*). Roll with our Top 5
and watch the money pile up all season!
The Dallas Cowboys need to start turning their long drives into touchdowns if they want to start winning consistently.
Thursday,
8:20 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Partly cloudy; low
50s)
Keys:
I
imagine when everyone saw this game on the schedule they assumed it
would be a battle between two division leaders and a possible glimpse
into the NFC Championship game. Well, several months later and a
reversion of major stars has rendered these teams playoff hopefuls
and even that is a stretch. At this point the Bears are all but
eliminated after preseason Super Bowl LIV aspirations and the Cowboys
only hope is winning the NFC East, which could be accomplished with a
losing record. Quite frankly, I’m tired of writing about how
talented these two teams are and how well they rank statistically, relatively, yet
both sit at 6-6 with almost no chance at the postseason, and less of a chance of advancing in the playoffs if Dallas were to win their
division. To say the Bears have run into issues is factual and to say
they were drastically overrated coming into 2019 is fair; to say the
Cowboys have underachieved
is the understatement
of 2019, because most other assumed disappointments
were largely
premature
overreactions
(Cleveland
Browns).
According
to Pro Football Reference the Cowboys should be 8-4 according to the
expected W-L metric we’ve discussed all season, which is all the
underachievement proof one needs. The
Cowboys do every thing well offensively, but don’t score enough
points, and they’re banged up all over the offensive line; the Bears
don’t allow many yards and they definitely don’t allow many
points, but they’re missing
key defenders themselves and they simply can't score. If the Cowboys are going to get back on
track and save their season they’re going to have to start scoring
on the road against one of the best defenses in the league. Yikes.
Hey, at least the Bears are offensively inept, no pun intended, and could be
disinterested by the time Thursday comes around. Who
the hell knows with either of these two teams anyway.
Keys: The Pigskins are feeling themselves after their first winning streak of the year, but let’s get real. The Pigskins could be the worst team in the NFL outside of Cincinnati, but the Packers have at least two unexpected wins this season, and we’re talking statistically, not emotionally. Regardless, the Packers should make quick work of a Washington team that gives up the 6th-most yards on the ground and is 21st in passing ypa, especially if they want to keep pace with a packed NFC.
Keys: The battle of the titans, the 49ers get tested two weeks in a row by playing the team they’ll likely face in the Super Bowl (Baltimore Ravens) and then following it up with a game against the team they could face in the NFC Championship. The Saints are 5-1 at home this year, which isn’t unusual, but the 49ers are 5-1 on the road, which is unusual since the days of Colin Kaepernick in what seems like a lifetime ago. The 49ers are simply the better team here, but the Saints are a different team at home, especially on the defensive side of the ball because the opposing QB can't even communicate. San Francisco is also arguably the best passing defense, so even if the Saints have a few home field advantages, they might not be worth that much. New Orleans probably gets 3.5-4 points for being home, meaning the Las Vegas thinks the 49ers are the slightly better team. I argue here that the 49ers are a much better football team, probably by the two wins Pro Football Reference calculates they are, but the Saints don’t turn the ball over (1st TOs) and the Superdome is almost an impossible place to play in for any offense. * = SF COVER
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather:
Indoors)
Keys: Week
14 is upon us and so is the realization that 20 teams won’t be
making the playoffs, including these two. Both teams have suffered
massively disappointing seasons and both will have new have coaches
in 2020; in fact, Carolina has already fired Riverboat Ron. The
Panthers will always remember 2020 as the year they tried to make a
bonnet-less Kyle Allen a franchise QB over Cam Newton and the year
Run DMC had the craziest season for a RB no will ever remember.
The Falcons will always remember 28-3, because they clearly still
haven’t forgotten it. The Falcons won the last meeting v.
Carolina 29-3 on
the road,
so why would this game be any different?
Sunday,
1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather:
Cloudy;
low 40s)
Keys: Introducing
the opposite of the previous game. Not only are these two teams
playoff-bound, the Ravens are currently Super Bowl LIV favorites and
the Bills could overtake the New England Patriots in the AFC East for
the first time in two decades. Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of
the game is the QB match-up: same draft class, same skill set,
relatively, and the same impact on their respective teams. Josh Allen
is a poor man’s Lamar Jackson and I’ve been saying for a month,
long before the national media. The major difference is athleticism,
of course, as Jackson makes you miss, and, well, Allen just runs over
you. That’s not to say Allen isn’t athletic or that Jackson isn’t
tough, but both bring similar results with a unique style and both
opposing defenses are going to have a hard time. The Bills are the
3rd-ranked
defense in terms of points and yards allowed and are one of the best
passing defenses in the NFL. The Ravens rank
5th
and 7th,
respectively, in those metrics, and rank 7th
in takeaways. The Ravens are also one of the best run defenses in the
NFL, but the sample size is small because teams don’t have the
chance to run on Baltimore. This game comes down to the Bills making
the Ravens one-dimensional and forcing them to run, which isn’t
exactly a weak link in the Ravens chain. The Bills are still better
than everyone thinks, so they’ll cover, but I’m not sure they can
pull off the win against these Ravens, even at home.
*Cincinnati
Bengals 1-11
(+8.5)
@
Cleveland Browns 5-7
(41):
Browns
24-23
Sunday,
8:20 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather:
Partly cloudy; low 50s)
Keys: This
is one of those “Who
cares?”
games. It would take the Browns winning four games to close out the
season and the rest of the AFC collapsing for Cleveland to make the
playoffs and this team was 8/1 to win Super Bowl LIV at one point.
Silly public. Here comes the pride campaign, where the Browns pull
off a few meaningless wins to salvage their season, at least in their
eyes. * = CIN COVER
Aaron Rodgers leads the Packers against the hapless Washington Pigskins in Green Bay Sunday.
Washington
Pigskins 3-9 (+13)
@ Green Bay Packers 9-3
(42):
Packers
27-13
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather:
Cloudy;
low 40s)
Keys: The Pigskins are feeling themselves after their first winning streak of the year, but let’s get real. The Pigskins could be the worst team in the NFL outside of Cincinnati, but the Packers have at least two unexpected wins this season, and we’re talking statistically, not emotionally. Regardless, the Packers should make quick work of a Washington team that gives up the 6th-most yards on the ground and is 21st in passing ypa, especially if they want to keep pace with a packed NFC.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
(Weather: Indoors)
Keys: These
Lions are the opposite of the Green Bay Packers in that they should
have two more
expected
wins. We’ve discussed all year the metrics Pro Football Reference
uses to determine these expected W-L records, and the Lions might be
the clearest example of this. AT the very least the Lions have lost
two games they literally should’ve won (e.g.
an assistant coach calls a TO at the snap of the game-winning play,
which ultimately results in a tie),
and that’s not even accounting for official error, of which the
Lions have suffered numerous examples. In other words, 14
points?
Under any circumstances a 14-point spread is a lot for an NFL game,
but in these circumstances it’s almost ridiculous, especially on a
short week with Adam Thielen doubtful. * = DET COVER
*San
Francisco 49ers 10-2
(+3)
@ New Orleans Saints 10-2
(44.5):
Saints
23-21
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather:
Indoors)
Keys: The battle of the titans, the 49ers get tested two weeks in a row by playing the team they’ll likely face in the Super Bowl (Baltimore Ravens) and then following it up with a game against the team they could face in the NFC Championship. The Saints are 5-1 at home this year, which isn’t unusual, but the 49ers are 5-1 on the road, which is unusual since the days of Colin Kaepernick in what seems like a lifetime ago. The 49ers are simply the better team here, but the Saints are a different team at home, especially on the defensive side of the ball because the opposing QB can't even communicate. San Francisco is also arguably the best passing defense, so even if the Saints have a few home field advantages, they might not be worth that much. New Orleans probably gets 3.5-4 points for being home, meaning the Las Vegas thinks the 49ers are the slightly better team. I argue here that the 49ers are a much better football team, probably by the two wins Pro Football Reference calculates they are, but the Saints don’t turn the ball over (1st TOs) and the Superdome is almost an impossible place to play in for any offense. * = SF COVER
Miami
Dolphins 3-9 (+5.5)
@ New York Jets 4-8
(44):
Jets
27-21
Sunday,
1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather:
Sunny; low 40s)
Keys:
Ahh,
another game that doesn’t matter. Some of these games aren’t even
worth doing the research for, but here we are. These are two of the
worst offenses in the NFL and one plays against a Jets defense that only exists because of
Jamal Adams, who will likely miss Sunday’s game. Ugh.
This is Adam Vinatieri, but don't tell anyone.
Keys: The
Colts have been through a lot in 2019 and they still almost puled off
the improbable. The Bucs have been exactly what most thought they
would be: A gun-slinging “No risk it no biscuit” offense led by
Bruce Arians and a QB in Jameis Winston as used to throwing it to the
other team as any gifted QB in football history. Both of these teams
are as middle-of-the-pack as can be, but the Colts are the epitome
of mediocre; the Bucs, on the other hand, have one of the most
dynamic offenses in the NFL (4th
points; 5th
yards gained)
to compliment one of the worst defenses (30th
points allowed).
In
fact, these teams are so Even Steven the Colts score and allow ~21
ppg; the Bucs score and allow ~28 ppg. Tampa
Bay’s problem
is TOs; the Bucs rank 31st,
while Winston is on his own historic TO pace. Tampa Bay does have one
of the best rush defenses in the NFL, so if they could force the
Marlon Mack-less Colts to be one-dimensional, and limit the TOs, they
should take care of business at home.
*Denver
Broncos 4-8
(+9.5)
@ Houston Texans 8-4
(41.5):
Broncos
21-20
Sunday,
1:00 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather:
Indoors)
Keys: The
Texans are riding high after a huge win against the New England
Patriots, so this could be the perfect let-down scenario for Houston
against a Broncos team ranked in the top-10 in points against (8th),
and yards (9th),
passing yards (5th)
and rushing TDs allowed (6th),
as long as Von Miller is a go. * = DEN COVER
Sunday,
4:05
PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather:
20% storms; low
70s)
Keys: Two
of the biggest disappointments of the past few years face off in a
meaningless game in the setting Florida Sun, which is apropos
considering both of these QBs will be riding off into the sunset at
the end of the year, it just depends on where that sunset ends. The
biggest question kids will be asking Saint Nick this Xmas is if he
can bring back Minshew Mania in 2020, while the Chargers will be looking for a
new home with new fans by then. The Chargers are the better team by
all accounts, so look for the win and the cover on the road against
the directionless Jaguars, unless
Leonard Fournette goes crazy.
The
good kind.
Tennessee
Titans 7-5
(-2.5)
@
Oakland Raiders 6-6
(47.5):
Titans
27-20
Keys:
This
game will be played between two teams on the playoff cusp, but the
Titans are on the rise under the guidance of Ryan Tannehill, while
the Raiders are trending down and could be missing a ton of valuable
players come Sunday (DNP:
Trent Brown; Josh Jacobs).
The Titans defense ranks 7th
in points allowed and rank in the top-10 in every rushing defense
metric besides attempts (12th).
The Raiders will likely be one-dimensional and lacking along the
offensive line, which all I need to hear to fade Derek Carr and a
Raiders team that may have peaked too early.
The Dark Hoodie has a game plan for Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs and we can't wait to see it.
*Kansas
City Chiefs
(+3)
@
New England Patriots 10-2
(48.5):
Patriots
28-27
Keys:
We
could analyze numbers until we were blue in the face, but the game is
pretty simple. The Chiefs dynamic offense will face their toughest
test of the season against Bill Belichick and the Patriots and the
Patriots ever-increasingly anemic offense will face a Chiefs defense
that is bad, but not as bad as everyone thinks. Clear? Exactly. This
game could go any direction, as it has the past few meetings between
these two teams, but at the end of the day it’s impossible to bet
against the Patriots at home in December, although, if there was ever
a time to it, it would be against these Chiefs in this game. * = KC COVER
Pittsburgh
Steelers 7-5
(-2.5)
@ Arizona Cardinals 3-8-1
(43.5):
Steelers
24-21
Keys: The
Steelers have one of those situations where they’ve lost their
starting QB and are now on their 3rd-string
QB, their coach has been under fire and they’ve been involved in a
major scandal, yet they keep winning against the odds. That’s a
dangerous team, and not one a rookie QB that could be without his
starting center wants to face. The Steelers have quietly built one of
the best defenses in the NFL as the season has progressed and now
rank in the top-10 in points allowed (6th),
yards allowed (5th),
takeaways (1st),
INTs (2nd),
passing yards
(7th),
passing ypa
(4th),
rushing ypa (5th)
and
rushing TDs (1st).
I’ve
had a hard time betting against Kyler Murray and the Cardinals all
year, but Pittsburgh winning by a FG doesn’t seem like a long shot,
it seems logical.
Sunday,
8:20
PM, Los Angeles Memorial Stadium, Los Angeles, CA (Weather:
Chance
rain;
mid-60s)
Keys: It
keeps coming back to this expected W-L for me and these teams have
identical expected W-L records (SEA:
6.8-5.2; LAR: 6.9-5.1),
which means the Seahawks have been luckier than the Rams, but luck
favors the prepared team, and no one is more prepared than MVP
candidate Russell Wilson (26
TDs; 4 INTs).
The Rams are in the top-third of the NFL in most metrics on both
sides of the ball, but right below the top-quarter, which would
represent playoff teams. That stands to reason. The Seahawks have a
great
offense (5th
points scored; 3rd
yards gained; top-10
passing & running offenses),
but a defense that ranks in the bottom
third of the league, except one key metric: takeaways (3rd).
Those
takeaways have provided short fields (4th
avg. starting field position),
so if the Rams offense can’t hold on to the ball (22nd
TOs)
it could be a long night, especially
if it rains.
New
York Giants 2-10
(+8.5)
@ Philadelphia Eagles 5-7
(47):
Eagles
27-21
Monday,
8:15
PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather:
Sunny;
mid-40s)
Keys: If
the Eagles lose they’d be two games behind the Dallas Cowboys with
three games to go and a head-to-head match-up, but more alarmingly,
they’d have lost to the 2-10 Giants and fallen to 5-8 in in a year
when most people had them penciled into the NFC slot for Super Bowl
LIV. The Giants are only good at two things: passing the ball a lot
(5th)
and not allowing many rush ypa (6th).
Not only does pass attempts mean nothing if they’re not efficient
(NYG: 24th
INTs; 27th
pass ypa),
especially with Saquon Barkley as your RB, but
Eli Manning is back in the mix and now his 116-116 record is in
jeopardy. I honestly don’t know what to expect from the Eagles
anymore, but I do expect the Giants to cover 8.5 points as long as Eli can evade
the Eagles pass rush.
Stay tuned for Tuesday's Gone: Week 14 #NFL Game Reviews coming Wednesday!
ProFootballMedia.com
@profootballmed
ProFootballMedia.com
@profootballmed
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