2019 NFL SEASON
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Tuesday's Gone: Week 13 #NFL Game Reviews
THANKSGIVING WEEK EDITION
THANKSGIVING WEEK EDITION
2019 NFL SEASON WEEK 13:
8-8 .500 (WINS); 10-6 .625 (ATS); 7-9 .438 (O/U)
2019 NFL SEASON TOTALS:
125-65-1 .658 (WINS); 103-84-4 .551 (ATS); 104-84-3
.553 (O/U)
WEEK 13 TOP 5 GAMES:
N/A
TOP 5 GAMES SEASON TOTAL:
37-21-2 (.638)
Note/Key (when applicable): Statistical analysis
based on the following metrics (abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points
against (PA); Point differential (PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA);
Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down efficiency (3rd);
Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP); Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S);
Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN); Against the spread (ATS). *All
images from Google with permission to reuse without license* Statistical
sources include, but not limited to: Pro Football Reference; Pro Football
Focus; ESPN.com; NFL.com; TeamRankings.com. Point spreads and over/under figures
are taken from the opening lines via Vegas Insider
NEW
TO PRO FOOTBALL MEDIA FOR THE 2019 SEASON
<
Drake voice >
"TOP
5 TOP 5 TOP 5"
Pro
Football Media will choose the Top 5 Betting Games of the Week for either the spread OR O/U denoted by an asterisk (*). Roll with our Top 5
and watch the money pile up all season!
It's that time of the year when everyone over the age of 40 tries to explain to everyone under the age of 40 that Madden was an actual person and FIFA is not.
Chicago
Bears 5-6 (-2.5)
@ Detroit Lions 3-7-1
(39):
Bears
20-17 Bears 24-20
Thanksgiving,
12:30
PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather:
Indoors)
Keys: When
the season began many experts circled this game as a potential window
into the NFC North divisional race and the playoff picture as the last quarter
of the season approached. Instead, these are two of the most
disappointing teams in the league, especially the Bears, who had
Super Bowl LIV aspirations heading into 2019 following a 12-4 season
the year before. The problem in Chicago has largely been the QB; Mitch(ell) Trubisky is rated 30th
in the league. The problem in Detroit has been anything but Matthew
Stafford, save his cap-crippling salary, but what else is new? Has
Stafford ever
been the
problem?
Truth
be told, the Lions expected W-L record according
to Pro Football Reference is 5-6, meaning the Lions have shot
themselves
in the foot at least twice this season. That certainly isn’t new,
and therein lies the problem. Talk of a Lions curse has permeated the
league for 50 years, just ask believers in
Bobby Lane. This game comes down to the Bears 4th
ranked defense (scoring;
yards allowed)
taking on a Lions offense that ranks 11th
in scoring and 9th
in yards, but are without Stafford again as Jeff Driskel sits
at questionable
on
the injury report. The bottom line is you can’t trust Trubisky to
score points and you obviously can’t trust Driskel
week-to-week, so this game will be the one you ignore while staring
into the turkey oven.
At least you aren’t thinking the same thing Trubisky is when he
stares into his oven. What, I meant he might have to become a baker, jeez...
This game was 20-17 with only a few minutes left, but I was on the wrong side, so suffice it to say I'm glad it went the other way. Trubisky threw his third TD pass of the game to save the game, push the over and keep his job for one more week.
Buffalo
Bills 8-3 (+7)
@ Dallas Cowboys 6-5
(45):
Cowboys
24-20 Bills 26-15
Keys: We
move on from the appetizer game to the main course, a battle between
a Cowboys team trying to bounce back from a cold, wet loss in New
England and a Bills team that’s shockingly still relevant as December
approaches. There’s no rest for the weary, as the Cowboys go from
facing the best defense since the Ravens defenses
of the early oughts to facing a Bills team that ranks 3rd
in scoring defense, 3rd
in yards allowed and 3rd
in passing ypa. Looks like Ezekiel Elliot gets another chance to prove he's worth $50 million guaranteed. As Dak
Prescott navigates the Bills stellar passing defense, watch out for
Josh Allen, who has quietly put together an amazing sophomore season,
throwing for 15 TDs and only 8 INTs while rushing for 387 yards and 7
more TDs. On paper the Cowboys top-10 defense (7th
scoring defense; 6th
yards allowed)
should be able to stuff the Bills offense, but paper hasn’t
translated to the field consistently, and the Cowboys have yet to
beat a team with a winning record this season. That streak ends on Thanksgiving,
because not only do the Cowboys have to beat a quality team at some
point, that point has to be now as they can take control of the NFC
East and win back the hearts of their distracted fans on Thanksgiving and
save Jason Garrett’s job.
The Bills are suddenly pressuring the New England Patriots for the AFC East and it's December 2nd. Think about that. The Cowboys have underachieved so much that for the first in what seems like 20 years Jason Garrett is done.
Thanksgiving,
8:20
PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather:
Indoors)
Keys: As
the tryptophan cuddles up to postprandial somnolence we’ll slip
deep into sleep and miss the Saints beating
the Falcons in
a low-scoring game and
wrap up the NFC South by Thursday of Week 13. Now that I’ve jinxed
the
game
we’ll probably get a 43-38 barn-burner. Or will we? Something in
the Falcons defense has suddenly sparked, whether a function of Dan
Quinn’s impending canning or professionals tiring
of under-performance,
and
the Saints, well, are sort of over-performing. In
fact, this very Week 10 match-up is what sparked a
Falcons
two-game winning streak after they shocked the Saints in New Orleans
26-9 following their Week 9 bye.
According
to Pro Football Reference, the Saints should be 7-4 and the Falcons
4-7, numbers based on point differential records using
Bill James’ pythagorean expectation equation.
It stands to reason considering the Saints went 5-0 with a backup QB,
while the Falcons have had an abysmal season with one of the best
passing attacks in the NFL. If
we’re being honest, Drew Brees hasn’t looked great
since his return from thumb surgery, but most of that could be
contributed to age; at 41 Brees clearly doesn’t have the same arm
strength, and doesn’t have the mobility, either, as these Falcons
sacked him six times Week 10. I wouldn’t expect a repeat of that,
per
se, but
these Falcons can hang with these Saints.
Of all the things I could review in this game I'll stick to one: onside kicks. Younghoe Koo, the disgraced San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers kicker kicked as many successful onside kicks in 10 minutes of this game that the entire NFL has in 12 weeks. In fact, it was really three successful onside kicks, but one was called back for offsides, which wasn't even the right call.
Note:
Due to the holiday and Phish tour the games will not include lengthy
summaries or pictures, but rather score predictions with minimal
analysis. The same time went into research, just not writing the
summaries; PFM returns to normal business practices Week 14. Thanks for
your understanding and support.
I wonder if Le'Veon Bell still considers losing to the 0-11 Bengals progress? Should the Jets fans still wait patiently for this team to blossom? Are you kidding? The Jets have now given the Bengals their only win so far this season and the formerly winless Dolphins their first win of the season.
Of all the things I could review in this game I'll stick to one: onside kicks. Younghoe Koo, the disgraced San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers kicker kicked as many successful onside kicks in 10 minutes of this game that the entire NFL has in 12 weeks. In fact, it was really three successful onside kicks, but one was called back for offsides, which wasn't even the right call.
New
York Jets 4-7
(-3)
v. Cincinnati Bengals 0-11
(41.5): Jets 24-17 Bengals 22-6
Sunday,
1:00
PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: 30% rain; low 50s)
Keys: This
game is a joke and no one cares, not even their fans. Don't be fooled
by any Jets progress in this game, or surprised if the Bengals win.
I wonder if Le'Veon Bell still considers losing to the 0-11 Bengals progress? Should the Jets fans still wait patiently for this team to blossom? Are you kidding? The Jets have now given the Bengals their only win so far this season and the formerly winless Dolphins their first win of the season.
Tennessee
Titans 6-5 (+2.5)
@ Indianapolis Colts 6-5
(43.5): Titans 24-20 Titans 31-17
Keys: Do these teams play each other every week?
Don't look now, but the Titans are suddenly scary. You probably should look at Adam Vinatieri trying to sneak out the back door so he has to explain how he was the single biggest reason for the Colts issues this season, surpassing Andrew Luck after losing a minimum of four games for the Colts so far. FOUR GAMES. Think about that: The Colts could easily be 9-3 and in full command of the AFC South DESPITE losing Luck forever. Instead, kickers in 2019 have almost ruined the NFL, at least the betting aspect.
Philadelphia
Eagles 5-6
(-10)
@ Miami Dolphins 2-9
(45): Eagles 27-23 Dolphins 37-31
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)
Keys: Perfect trap game for the team that's "about to get back on track any week". Look for the Dolphins to cover at least.
Wow. I wonder what book Doug Pederson is going to write about this shit show. People think the New England Patriots are lucky without considering the winner of the NFC East will likely be 7-9. In other words, the Eagles are lucky they're in a division with the Dallas Cowboys, because all they have to do is beat the Cowboys, win the NFC East and the 4th seed and lose by 30 in the first round of the playoffs. That statue outside of Lincoln Financial looks more ridiculous by the day.
Wow. I wonder what book Doug Pederson is going to write about this shit show. People think the New England Patriots are lucky without considering the winner of the NFC East will likely be 7-9. In other words, the Eagles are lucky they're in a division with the Dallas Cowboys, because all they have to do is beat the Cowboys, win the NFC East and the 4th seed and lose by 30 in the first round of the playoffs. That statue outside of Lincoln Financial looks more ridiculous by the day.
Green
Bay Packers 8-3 (-6.5)
@ New York Giants 2-9
(45): Packers 30-20 Packers 31-17
Sunday,
1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: 90% wintry mix; high 30s)
Keys:
The Packers need to get their act together and what better team to do
that against than the Giants in weather they happen to thrive in.
This was one of PFM's closest calls of the week, but it's nothing to brag about.
Cleveland
Browns
5-6
(-2)
@ Pittsburgh Steelers 6-5
(39): Browns 23-20 Steelers 20-13
Keys:
This game will be without Myles Garrett or Mason Rudolph, which is
almost like Kyrie Irving wimping out of the Boston Celtics game, but not
really, just in the sense we want to hear incessant booing and chaos.
Baker Mayfield got hurt and suddenly the Browns have a legit excuse for sucking as bad as they've sucked. Just kidding, if anything, this should improve the Browns chances. What, you ask? Baker Mayfield is statistically the worst QB in the NFL. Let that sink in: THE WORST. The chip on Mayfield's shoulder is so big he forgot to take it off and practice his craft. How can you blame him though? All he has around him is Nick Chubb, OBJ and Jarvis Landry. Meanwhile, the Steelers and Coach of the Year candidate Mike Tomlin punched the Browns in the mouth again, after the Browns had revenge on the mind, and Cleveland is right back to where they always were: losing to the Steelers, missing the playoffs, getting clowned around the country and looking for a new head coach...again. If Mayfield keeps putting commercials ahead of play the Browns will be looking for another QB again, too.
Baker Mayfield got hurt and suddenly the Browns have a legit excuse for sucking as bad as they've sucked. Just kidding, if anything, this should improve the Browns chances. What, you ask? Baker Mayfield is statistically the worst QB in the NFL. Let that sink in: THE WORST. The chip on Mayfield's shoulder is so big he forgot to take it off and practice his craft. How can you blame him though? All he has around him is Nick Chubb, OBJ and Jarvis Landry. Meanwhile, the Steelers and Coach of the Year candidate Mike Tomlin punched the Browns in the mouth again, after the Browns had revenge on the mind, and Cleveland is right back to where they always were: losing to the Steelers, missing the playoffs, getting clowned around the country and looking for a new head coach...again. If Mayfield keeps putting commercials ahead of play the Browns will be looking for another QB again, too.
Washington
Pigskins 2-9 (+10)
@ Carolina Panthers 5-6
(40): Panthers 24-17 Pigskins 29-21
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: 80% rain; low 60s)
Keys:
The Pigskins are terrible and the Panthers are still trying to prove
they're relevant while not trying to waste Run CMC's MVP season.
This game went so poorly the Panthers fired Riverboat Ron following the game. Yikes.
This game went so poorly the Panthers fired Riverboat Ron following the game. Yikes.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: 40% storms; low 80s)
Keys: Who cares about the score, the question is how many INTs will Jameis Winston throw?
The Jaguars are a joke. Two years removed from their second-half collapse in the AFC Championship against the New England Patriots, their All-Pro defense disintegrated, Jalen Ramsey defected, they ditched Blake Bortles because they, too, were Foled by Nick, and now Doug Marrone is likely gone. That's what the Patriots do to teams. Just ask the LA Rams. Even if teams best the Patriots in meaningful games, they wilt within two season (Philadelphia Eagles). A few weeks ago this team moved on from Minshew Mania because he made a few mistakes and they were paying Foles tens of millions of dollars. Guess what? Foles won't even be on the team next year and he'll count for $34M in dead cap money. Looks like Tom Coughlin is slipping, too.
The Jaguars are a joke. Two years removed from their second-half collapse in the AFC Championship against the New England Patriots, their All-Pro defense disintegrated, Jalen Ramsey defected, they ditched Blake Bortles because they, too, were Foled by Nick, and now Doug Marrone is likely gone. That's what the Patriots do to teams. Just ask the LA Rams. Even if teams best the Patriots in meaningful games, they wilt within two season (Philadelphia Eagles). A few weeks ago this team moved on from Minshew Mania because he made a few mistakes and they were paying Foles tens of millions of dollars. Guess what? Foles won't even be on the team next year and he'll count for $34M in dead cap money. Looks like Tom Coughlin is slipping, too.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: 100% rain; low 40s)
Keys:
The 49ers are mediocre at one thing: stopping the run. The Ravens excel
at running the ball. Yep, it's one of those classics and a likely
glimpse of Super Bowl LIV. Baltimore is good, but 5.5-points better?
Maybe so in the cold rain...
The game of the week did not disappoint, at least from a defensive battle perspective. The 49ers struggle with the run and Lamar Jackson ran for over 100 yards again, including a running TD, to compliment his passing TD (on only 105 passing yards on 4.6 ypa). The Ravens were simply more prepared, with reports of Jackson throwing in the rain on Thanksgiving to prepare for Sunday, while Jimmy Garappolo (165 passing yards; 1 TD) reportedly wouldn't even practice in the rain pregame. Huh?
The game of the week did not disappoint, at least from a defensive battle perspective. The 49ers struggle with the run and Lamar Jackson ran for over 100 yards again, including a running TD, to compliment his passing TD (on only 105 passing yards on 4.6 ypa). The Ravens were simply more prepared, with reports of Jackson throwing in the rain on Thanksgiving to prepare for Sunday, while Jimmy Garappolo (165 passing yards; 1 TD) reportedly wouldn't even practice in the rain pregame. Huh?
Los
Angeles Rams 6-5 (-3)
@ Arizona Cardinals 3-7-1
(47.5): Cardinals 28-24 Rams 34-7
Keys: One
of these teams was rebuilding from scratch while the other was a Super
Bowl contender. It's interesting that the opposite will apply to these
two teams in 2022.
The too-little-too-late Rams destroyed the Cardinals and PFM missed every mark on this game. The Rams outgained the Cardinals 549-198 and had 14 more 1st downs (27:13) on their way to a route that was over 43 seconds into the 2Q.
The too-little-too-late Rams destroyed the Cardinals and PFM missed every mark on this game. The Rams outgained the Cardinals 549-198 and had 14 more 1st downs (27:13) on their way to a route that was over 43 seconds into the 2Q.
Los
Angeles Chargers 4-7
(-3)
@ Denver Broncos 3-8
(38.5): Chargers 21-17 Broncos 23-20
Keys: Meh.
Von Miller didn't even play and the Chargers still couldn't get anything going. Rookie Drew Lock threw 2 TDs in the 1Q alone and Brandon McManus kicked two 50+ yard FGs to help seal the victory. The Chargers kicked the game-tying FG with 14 seconds remaining, yet the Broncos managed one 37-yard play to get McManus within FG range to steal the game as time expired. Things look terrible in Los Angeles for the NFL right now, but the Chargers situation is so bad they might not even end up finishing the move to LA.
Von Miller didn't even play and the Chargers still couldn't get anything going. Rookie Drew Lock threw 2 TDs in the 1Q alone and Brandon McManus kicked two 50+ yard FGs to help seal the victory. The Chargers kicked the game-tying FG with 14 seconds remaining, yet the Broncos managed one 37-yard play to get McManus within FG range to steal the game as time expired. Things look terrible in Los Angeles for the NFL right now, but the Chargers situation is so bad they might not even end up finishing the move to LA.
Sunday,
4:25
PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Breezy; high 30s)
Keys: 10 points seems like a lot for two teams that have been inconsistent to say the least, especially in the driving wind.
So much for the Raiders magical season. On to Las Vegas.
So much for the Raiders magical season. On to Las Vegas.
New
England
Patriots 10-1
(-3)
@ Houston Texans 7-4
(45): Patriots 24-23 Texans 28-22
Sunday,
8:20
PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather:
Indoors)
Keys:
The Patriots have the Texans number, but New England's offense is
literally a joke and Bill Belichick only seems to struggle with mobile
QBs. I'm not saying that means the Patriots win, or even cover, but it's
the reason for the spread.
Notice I didn't say much about this game? It was because the Texans are as inconsistent as any team with talent in the NFL and the Patriots have more question marks than the future of this country. The Texans led 28-9 with ten minutes remaining in the game before the Patriots, who outgained the Texans by nearly 200 yards and had almost twice as many first downs, scored twice in the 4Q to make it look like it was a competitive game. These Patriots are in trouble.
Notice I didn't say much about this game? It was because the Texans are as inconsistent as any team with talent in the NFL and the Patriots have more question marks than the future of this country. The Texans led 28-9 with ten minutes remaining in the game before the Patriots, who outgained the Texans by nearly 200 yards and had almost twice as many first downs, scored twice in the 4Q to make it look like it was a competitive game. These Patriots are in trouble.
Minnesota
Vikings 8-3
(+3)
@ Seattle Seahawks 9-2
(49.5): Seahawks 23-21 Seahawks 37-30
Keys: Perhaps the game of the week, the questions are which Vikings offense shows up and whether Super Russ can continue his heroics.
Both QBs played similar games, but the opposite could be said for the running games, which Seattle dominated. Dalvin Cook only rushed for 29 yards on 9 carries, while Chris Carson rushed for 102 yards on 23 carries. Russell Wilson threw a pick-six, but the Seahawks held the ball for nearly 40 minutes, twice as long as the Vikings, preventing them from scoring enough points to win as the Vikings defense gave up the most points they've given up all season.
Both QBs played similar games, but the opposite could be said for the running games, which Seattle dominated. Dalvin Cook only rushed for 29 yards on 9 carries, while Chris Carson rushed for 102 yards on 23 carries. Russell Wilson threw a pick-six, but the Seahawks held the ball for nearly 40 minutes, twice as long as the Vikings, preventing them from scoring enough points to win as the Vikings defense gave up the most points they've given up all season.
Stay tuned for Week 14: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) coming Thursday & Saturday!
ProFootballMedia.com
@profootballmed
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