2018 NFL SEASON
P R O F O O T B A L L M E D I A
Tuesday's Gone:
Week 17 #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & NO analysis) FINAL
WEEK EDITION
Week 17 results: 12-4 (WINS); 4-12 (ATS); 10-6 (O/U)
Season totals: 167-87-2 .652 (WINS); 119-129-8 .480 (ATS); 140-113-3
.553 (O/U)
Note/Key (when
applicable): Statistical analysis based on the following metrics
(abbreviations): Points scored (PF); points against (PA); Point differential
(PD) Yards gained (YG); Yards allowed (YA); Red Zone TD efficiency (RZ); 3rd-down
efficiency (3rd); Turnover ratio (TO); Time of possession (TOP);
Yards per play (YPP); Sacks (S); Interceptions (INT); Penalty yards (PEN);
Against the spread (ATS).
Note: As in past years, I will not belabor the analysis of
the Week 17 games, with a few exceptions (e.g. INDvsTEN). Like Week 1,
situations are so fluid it makes predicting games, and perhaps betting on them,
much more difficult than during the regular season. Whether teams are
eliminated and playing undrafted rookies or they’re the No. 1 seed and have decided
to sit their players, there’s a reason why fantasy football leagues are long
finished by the time Week 17 rolls in. As in years past I will begin reviewing
games with full analysis beginning with the Wild Card Round of the 2018 NFL
Playoffs. As always, thanks for reading and have a safe and fun New Year! – Pro
Football Media
The Patriots aren't going
anywhere this post season unless they secure home field advantage, or this man
pulls an ace out of his short sleeves.
New York Jets 4-11 (+13.5) @ New England Patriots 10-5 (45.5): Patriots 27-20 Patriots 38-3
Sunday, 1:00PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Sunny; low 30s)
Reasons: The Patriots desperately need to win,
because if they don’t have home field advantage throughout at least some of the
playoffs they’re toast. As for the Jets, what a better way to end your terrible
season then to help ruin the Patriots, who hold the tiebreaker over the Houston
Texans.
The Miracle in Miami showed its ugly head again as it became clear
the Patriots would've had home field advantage through the AFC playoffs had it
not been for that debacle.
Miami
Dolphins 7-8 (+3.5) @ Buffalo
Bills 5-10 (38.5): Bills 21-20 Bills 42-17
Sunday,
1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: Sunny; low 30s)
Reasons: The Dolphins could end the season .500
again. Thank science for the Miracle in Miami.
This is the team that kept the New England Patriots from the #1 seed
in the AFC playoffs.
Detroit
Lions 5-10 (+8) @ Green Bay
Packers 6-8-1 (45): Packers 30-21 Lions 31-0
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Sunny; low 30s)
Reasons: I though an early season tie would play to
Green Bay’s favor. Considering how insufferable Aaron Rodgers is, I’m glad I
was wrong.
So much for Aaron Rodgers career.
Jacksonville
Jaguars 5-10 (+7) @ Houston
Texans 10-5 (40.5): Texans 23-17 Texans 20-3
Sunday,
1:00 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: What a difference a few weeks makes. The
Texans were in charge of the AFC South until a few weeks ago, and now they’re
in danger of going from divisional champions to the 6th seed if they
don’t win Sunday. In fact, if they lose the division title goes to the winner
of the Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans game. As for the Jaguars, what a
difference a season makes. At least the Jaguars won their Super Bowl against
New England earlier this season.
What the hell was wrong with me picking all the wrong teams to cover
this weekend???
The
sky is the limit now that New Orleans has secured home field advantage through
the NFC playoffs.
Carolina
Panthers 6-9 (+7.5) @ New Orleans
Saints 13-2 (44.5): Saints 28-20 Panthers 33-14
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Saints have locked up home field
advantage throughout the playoffs, but the Panthers are without Cam Newton, and
therefore, not even remotely the same team.
The Saints didn't need the win, or Drew Brees, but I assumed the
Panthers were so bad without Cam Newton it would still be a no-contest in the
Superdome. Nope.
Dallas
Cowboys 9-6 (+6) @ New York
Giants 5-10 (41.5): Giants 23-21
Cowboys 36-35
Sunday,
1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; low 30s)
Reasons: There’s no way Eli Manning ends his career
with a loss at home against the hated Dallas Cowboys, is there? Wait, you think
Eli still wants to play?!?! The Giants season is so bad they can’t even qualify
for the top pick in the draft. Cowboys starters play and instill anything but
confidence heading into the playoffs.
The Cowboys dropped leads and the two teams combined for 32
4th-quarter points. What a great way to end the season for the Giants, while
the Cowboys probably didn't want to struggle on the road against one of the
worst teams in the NFL heading into the playoffs, no matter what the
psychological NFC East implications. Dallas exits in Round One of the
playoffs.
Atlanta
Falcons 6-9 (-1) @ Tampa Bay
Buccaneers 5-10 (51.5): Bucs 28-27 Falcons 34-32
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Sunny; low 80s)
Reasons: So much offense. So little interest.
One of my finest meaningless predictions of 2018.
Cleveland
Browns 7-7-1 (+6) @ Baltimore
Ravens 9-6 (41): Ravens 24-20 Ravens 26-24
Sunday,
4:25 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Cloudy; low 40s)
Reasons: One of the few games of Week 17 with
anything on the line. The Browns could end 2018 with their first winning season
in what seems like decades, while the Ravens could win the AFC North with a
victory.
Ravens in. Steelers out. Now every team in the NFL gets to watch
Baker Mayfield film for almost nine months, pick him apart, and watch the
Browns return to form in 2019. Book it.
The
Eagles aren't going anywhere with Carson Wentz, but that wasn't a problem last
year.
Philadelphia
Eagles 8-7 (-6.5) @ Washington
Football Team 7-8 (42): Eagles
24*-17 Eagles 24*-0
Sunday,
4:25 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather: Cloudy; low 40s)
Reasons: As unbelievable as it seems the Eagles can
actually make the playoffs with a win and a Minnesota Vikings loss. Nick Foles
is the starting quarterback because Carson Wentz is down for the season. Sound
familiar?
Introducing my worst call of the season. I said the Eagles would go
6-10 or 7-9 at best and miss the playoffs. I was so close. If it weren't for
that bum Carson Wentz getting hurt again and future HOF'er Nick Foles (NFL
records; Super Bowl MVP...don't @ me) taking over, I would've been dead on and
dead, period, to my Philadelphia in-law family.
Oakland
Raiders 4-11 (+13.5) @ Kansas
City Chiefs 11-4 (54.5): Chiefs 31-20 Chiefs 35-3
Sunday,
4:25 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Sunny; high 40s)
Reasons: The Chiefs hold the tiebreaker over the Los
Angeles Chargers and need a win Sunday to secure the AFC’s top seed and home
field advantage throughout the playoffs. Chucky probably thinks he has a chance
at securing yet another top draft pick.
$100 million well spend, Oakland. No you're homeless.
Chicago
Bears 11-4 (-5.5) @ Minnesota
Vikings 8-6-1 (40.5): Bears 24*-20 Bears 24*-10
Sunday,
4:25 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Bears can secure home field advantage
and the second seed in the NFC with a win and a Los Angeles Rams loss, but the
Vikings need to win to get into the playoffs at all, a year after being Super
Bowl contenders heading into the regular season. Anyone who thinks the Bears
would lay down for a divisional opponent, especially in a game that would give
Minnesota access into the playoffs, is crazy; compound that with Chicago’s –
and Mitch Trubisky’s – need to be home in the playoffs, and what we have is a
Bears team playing like they need to win.
The Vikings must be psyched they spent $90M on Kirk Cousins and
ended up with several fewer wins and a spot on the couch for the Wild Card
Round. In other news, Case Keenum won 2.5 fewer games with significantly less
talent...and significantly less money.
Cincinnati
Bengals 6-9 (+14.5) @ Pittsburgh
Steelers 8-6-1 (45.5): Steelers 28-20 Steelers 16-13
Sunday,
4:25 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Cloudy; low 40s)
Reasons: What a clown show the Steelers are. Faced
with elimination in a winnable game they go for a fake punt deep in their own
territory against one of the most effective and efficient quarterback-head
coach tandems in NFL history. That’s not gutsy, that’s stupid and desperate.
This Steelers team is loaded with talent and devoid of character and
leadership. That’s weird, that sounds like the Bengals. The Steelers can win
the AFC North with a win and a Ravens loss, or back into the Wild Card with a
win and a tie between the Colts and Titans game. Neither seem very likely,
although the first scenario is obviously the most plausible. This game might
come down to the last possession with these two bitter rivals, but these
Steelers really deserve to go home and fight amongst themselves.
What a mess the Steelers are; this playoff snub is the perfect
medicine. Assuming they get rid of Antonio Brown, forget about Le'Veon Bell and
remove Ben Roethlisberger's larynx. Considering the former will never happen
while the latter is already happening these Steelers might be smelting for a
long time.
Philip
Rivers and the Los Angeles Chargers have a chance to win the AFC West Sunday,
but they'll need some help to accomplish it.
Los
Angeles Chargers 11-4 (-6.5) @
Denver Broncos 6-9 (41.5): Chargers 24-23 Chargers 23-9
Sunday,
4:25 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Partly Sunny; high 40s)
Reasons: The Chargers win the AFC West with a win and
a Chiefs loss or tie, and Denver might be the last place on Earth they want to
go to try and accomplish that feat. Denver has nothing to play for besides the
scorn of John Elway, which could be enough to light the fire under the Broncos
and spoilt their division rivals’ chances going forward in the playoffs. We
could see another one-point game here; at the very least 6.5 points seems very
high, especially considering the over/under.
The Chargers enter the season tied for the best record in the AFC,
losing their division to a tiebreaker, but it doesn't matter because the
Chargers are the one team in the league where home field is anything but an
advantage.
San
Francisco 49ers 4-11 (+10) @ Los
Angeles Rams 12-3 (50): Rams 27-24 Rams 48-32
Sunday,
4:25 PM, Los Angeles Memorial Stadium, Los Angeles, CA (Weather: Sunny;
mid-60s)
Reasons: The Rams gain the top seed in the NFC with a
win and a Bears loss and the 49ers are looking to secure that top draft pick,
which means they need to lose and have the Cardinals win (at least).
That’s basically a recipe for lopsided Rams win, which begs the question: Why
is this point spread so small relative to several other similar games when this
is one of the clearest paths to a landslide? Does Las Vegas trust the Rams?
Does anyone anymore?
On one had the Rams got back on track offensively, but on the other
hand, they surrendered 32 points to a broken 49ers team, which basically
solidifies everyone's assertions before the season started: A bunch of former
rogue defensive stars jammed together for one season does not a defense
make.
Arizona
Cardinals 3-12 (+13.5) @ Seattle
Seahawks 9-6 (39.5): Seahawks 24-10 Seahawks 27-24
Sunday,
4:25 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: Rain; mid-40s)
Reasons: Record-wise the Cardinals are the worst team
in the NFL, although that assertion could be argued statistically, but probably
without much success. The Cardinals own the worst record, which means the first
pick in the 2019 NFL Draft is theirs to lose, while the Seahawks are trying to
fine-tune their machine heading into the playoffs, and possibly get a higher
seed (5th relative to a 6th). Considering the game
is in Seattle this is the only game where these double-digit point spreads
actually makes sense. Add the terrible forecasted weather and we have a lock.
The Seahawks ended the season strong against the Cardinals best
efforts to inexplicably get to four wins and open the top draft pick to
tiebreakers. Seattle enters the playoffs as one of the tougher teams to beat,
as the 6th-ranked scoring offense and the 11th-ranked scoring defense, a mere 0.2
ppg from being in the top-10 (21.7 ppg).
Indianapolis
Colts 9-6 (-3) @ Tennessee Titans
9-6 (44): Colts 24-23 Colts 33-17
Sunday,
8:20 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Rain; low 40s)
Reasons: The game of the week with the most on the
line, including the playoffs and possibly the division, features a team that
had a losing record heading into their first match up in Week 10 (IND was
4-5 heading into Week 10) versus a team that ended up with a .500 record
after a loss in that aforementioned first matchup (TEN was 5-5 after the
Week 10 game). Now both teams are 9-6, and with the help of a Houston
Texans loss, could end of AFC South champions. The loser goes home. To
complicate things for the Titans they could be without quarterback Marcus
Mariota again; the Colts, on the other hand, might have to deal with some
inclement weather. The Titans have been the more inconsistent team this year,
and the constant quarterback carousel hasn’t helped, while the Colts are 8-1 in
their last nine games after starting the season 1-5, while Andrew Luck is been
playing at a true MVP level (36 TDs; 14 INTs). The Colts are
favored by three on the road in the rain; that’s all you need to know. Well,
you should also know the Colts have the 8th-ranked rush defense, so
the suddenly-located Derrick Henry has his work cut out for him if the Titans
are advancing beyond Nashville.
Believe it or not the Colts have the tenth-ranked scoring defense in
the league, which is all the Titans had to rely on all season to begin with,
while the Colts were averaging nearly 27 ppg on offense. Just like the Seahawks
in the NFC, the Colts ended the season strong and will be a tough out to begin
the playoffs.
@ProFootballMedia.com
@ProFootballMed
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