Aaron Rodgers is already off to a fast start in 2017 and looks to stay ahead in the NFC North when they face the Chicago Bears in Green Bay Thursday night.
2017 NFL SEASON
Week 4: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads
& analysis)
Week 4 results: 8-8
wins (season: 34-29; .540); 10-6 v. spread (season: 30-33; .476)
Chicago
Bears 1-2 (+7) @ Green Bay Packers 2-1 (45.5):
Packers 24-20 Packers 35-14
Thursday, 8:25 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Partly cloudy; low 60s)
Reasons: Chicago and Green Bay enter Thursday night’s game allowing
the 12th and 10th fewest yards in the league,
respectively, but that’s only significant for the Bears, who are 14th
in defensive time of possession (30:26).
The Packers gain far more yards on offense (391.3
ypg, 10th) and are led by perennial MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers,
who is once again off to another great start (967 passing yards; 6 TDs). On the other side for the Bears is
running back Jordan Howard (237 total
yards; 3 TDs), who was questionable all last week and then torched a good
Steelers defense for 138 rushing yards. Howard is questionable again, but I
wouldn’t count on that if I’m Green Bay. The bigger question could be
the health of Chicago’s offensive line with G Josh Sitton and back up center
Hroniss Grasu questionable. The same can be said about Green Bay’s offensive
line as the Packers could be missing both their starting tackles (David Bakhtiari;Byron Buluga).
Considering the early week and the level of attrition at key positions on both teams we
shouldn’t expect the barn burner we got last Thursday night, but with safety
Quinton Demps already ruled out for the Bears, Aaron Rodgers could go off at
any moment and have another big game.
The game got away from the Bears before it began. The Packers scored on their opening drive and then on Chicago's first possession, Mike Glennon was strip sacked at the Bears 14 yard line and Green Bay recovered the ball at the Bears 3 yard line. Three plays later the Packers were up 14-0 six minutes into the game. From there it snowballed with Chicago fumbling again and throwing two INTs, as well as missing a FG, to cap off a game where Chicago led in yards, first downs and time of possession, but lost by 21 points. Aaron Rodgers threw four TDs on 18-26 passing and only 179 yards, but that's all it took, which is incredible considering the Bears had more first downs, total yards, and led the Packers in 4th-down efficiency and time of possession.
The game got away from the Bears before it began. The Packers scored on their opening drive and then on Chicago's first possession, Mike Glennon was strip sacked at the Bears 14 yard line and Green Bay recovered the ball at the Bears 3 yard line. Three plays later the Packers were up 14-0 six minutes into the game. From there it snowballed with Chicago fumbling again and throwing two INTs, as well as missing a FG, to cap off a game where Chicago led in yards, first downs and time of possession, but lost by 21 points. Aaron Rodgers threw four TDs on 18-26 passing and only 179 yards, but that's all it took, which is incredible considering the Bears had more first downs, total yards, and led the Packers in 4th-down efficiency and time of possession.
Sunday, 9:30 AM, Wembley Stadium, London, England (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: These
London games have proven hard to predict, the last case being a (at the time) top-five defense in
Baltimore, surrendering 44 points to Jacksonville last Sunday. We might see the
same thing this week as the Dolphins enter Week 4 the 6th-ranked
scoring defense, and I don’t think they stand much of a chance against Drew
Brees. The problem for Miami is the 11th-ranked Saints offense is
climbing the ranks fast and will be close to home in the sense they’ll be
indoors on turf, where they’re most dangerous. New Orleans has some attrition
on the offensive line, but Drew Brees is heating up.
After last week's London game I was skeptical to predict a bad game, despite the fact the Dolphins and Saints offered no proof to the contrary, but it was exactly that. Both teams combined for 533 total yards, the Dolphins only managing 186 of those yards and 11 first downs. Jay Cutler was intercepted and already looks disinterested in a team that has yet to play at home in 2017. The Saints didn't do anything special, but it's becoming clear it won't take anything special to beat these Dolphins, no matter how much talent they have.
After last week's London game I was skeptical to predict a bad game, despite the fact the Dolphins and Saints offered no proof to the contrary, but it was exactly that. Both teams combined for 533 total yards, the Dolphins only managing 186 of those yards and 11 first downs. Jay Cutler was intercepted and already looks disinterested in a team that has yet to play at home in 2017. The Saints didn't do anything special, but it's becoming clear it won't take anything special to beat these Dolphins, no matter how much talent they have.
Buffalo
Bills 2-1 (+8) @ Atlanta Falcons 3-0 (48.5): Falcons 28-20 Bills 23-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes-Benz
Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Bills enter Sunday’s game with the top-ranked
scoring defense while ranking 6th in yards allowed. The creation of
a defense that can battle Tom Brady twice a year is paying off, as Buffalo
truly is one of the best defenses in the NFL. Unfortunately for Buffalo they’re
facing a dynamic, record-breaking offense in the Falcons, who haven’t really
skipped a beat after losing their offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan to the
49ers and replacing him with a frat guy from USC. Atlanta will also be home.
Good defenses and running games usually travel well, but not to Atlanta to face
these Falcons.
The Bills were out-gained, had fewer first downs and held the ball for less time, but forced three turnovers against the Falcons and beat Atlanta and the high-flying Falcons offense at home. It doesn't hurt that Julio Jones got hurt, but if you turn the ball over in the NFL you will not win games. Tre'Davius White returned a fumble 52 yards for a touchdown early in the second half and the Bills never looked back. Buffalo made it 17-10 on a field goal following a Matt Ryan INT, before Matt Ryan made it 17-17 on a touchdown pass, before another Matt Ryan INT led to the go-ahead Bills field goal.
The Bills were out-gained, had fewer first downs and held the ball for less time, but forced three turnovers against the Falcons and beat Atlanta and the high-flying Falcons offense at home. It doesn't hurt that Julio Jones got hurt, but if you turn the ball over in the NFL you will not win games. Tre'Davius White returned a fumble 52 yards for a touchdown early in the second half and the Bills never looked back. Buffalo made it 17-10 on a field goal following a Matt Ryan INT, before Matt Ryan made it 17-17 on a touchdown pass, before another Matt Ryan INT led to the go-ahead Bills field goal.
Cincinnati
Bengals 0-3 (-3) @ Cleveland Browns 0-3
(41.5):
Bengals 24-20 Bengals 31-7
Sunday, 1:00 PM, FirstEnergy
Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Sunny;
high 60s)
Reasons: The Bengals are winless, but their three losses have
come to a top-ranked Baltimore defense to start the season, a close 13-9 loss
to a tough Texans team and a loss to Aaron Rodgers and the high-flying Packers offense
in OT at Lambeau Field. The Browns have also faced tough teams in two of their
three games (PIT; BAL), but lost a
close game to the lowly Colts last week. In other words, both teams are
probably better than their 0-3 records suggest, but if we’re being realistic, Cincinnati
is the far more talented, and better team. The Bengals offense is stuck in a
quagmire they’re sure to free themselves from eventually, and the Browns are
really bad. One of the lone bright spots for the team, rookie quarterback DeShone
Kizer, is already giving the ball away too much, and poses as much of a threat
to win a game as lose one.
The Cincinnati Bengals offense finally woke up, albeit against a terrible Cleveland Browns defense. The Browns offense doesn't look any better, and rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer (16-34 passing for 118 yards; 1 INT) is feeling the effects of playing quarterback for the Browns, a hell I wouldn't inflict upon my worst enemy.
The Cincinnati Bengals offense finally woke up, albeit against a terrible Cleveland Browns defense. The Browns offense doesn't look any better, and rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer (16-34 passing for 118 yards; 1 INT) is feeling the effects of playing quarterback for the Browns, a hell I wouldn't inflict upon my worst enemy.
The
Dallas Cowboys might have the big names, but it's the Rams that enters
Sunday's game the league's top scoring offense to compliment great young
defensive talent.
Los Angeles
Rams 2-1 (+6.5) @ Dallas Cowboys 2-1 (48.5): Cowboys 28-27 Rams 35-30
Sunday, 1:00 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Rams come into Sunday the top-ranked offense in
the NFL, much to the surprise of everyone, scoring 35.7 ppg. What might be a
surprise is the defense ranks in the bottom third of the NFL in points and
yards allowed; however, both can be explained away via a barn burner against
the 49ers (39 PA) and the fact the
Rams offense strikes quick and puts their defense right back on the field (LAR defense ranks 13th in DTOP).
Yet another surprise is an offensive line that has not only cleared lanes for
Todd Gurley, but has only given up three sacks on the year. The Cowboys are
exactly what and where we expected them to be, except for their star running
back Ezekiel Elliot, who not only looks out of shape, but not at all like he
did in his rookie campaign, averaging about half the yards per game he did in
2016 (62 ypg; 1 TD). At least he’s on
the field, which is something few expected entering the season. Dallas squeaks
by with a win at home in one of the premier games of the week.
The game that featured the most young talent in the NFL (Jared Goff: 2 passing TDs; Todd Gurley: 121 rushing yards; Dak Prescott: 3 passing TDs; Ezekiel Elliot: 85 rushing yards, 1 TD) didn't disappoint Sunday. In a largely evenly-played game, two turnovers by the Cowboys ultimately cost Dallas the game. In a critical play midway through the 4th quarter, Dak Prescott was strip sacked and lost a fumble, only to have the call reversed. On the next play Prescott's pass attempt to Dan Beasley was intercepted, leading to a Rams field goal, which gave Los Angeles a 32-24 lead, essentially putting what had been a 29-24 game (with the Cowboys driving) out of reach.
The game that featured the most young talent in the NFL (Jared Goff: 2 passing TDs; Todd Gurley: 121 rushing yards; Dak Prescott: 3 passing TDs; Ezekiel Elliot: 85 rushing yards, 1 TD) didn't disappoint Sunday. In a largely evenly-played game, two turnovers by the Cowboys ultimately cost Dallas the game. In a critical play midway through the 4th quarter, Dak Prescott was strip sacked and lost a fumble, only to have the call reversed. On the next play Prescott's pass attempt to Dan Beasley was intercepted, leading to a Rams field goal, which gave Los Angeles a 32-24 lead, essentially putting what had been a 29-24 game (with the Cowboys driving) out of reach.
Detroit
Lions 2-1 (+2) @ Minnesota Vikings 2-1
(42.5):
Vikings 21-20 Lions 14-7
Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: 50% rain; 60s)
Reasons:
These two NFC North rivals enter Sunday’s game relatively even on both sides of
the ball. Both teams possess defenses that bend, but don’t break, and both
teams possess offenses that can score in bunches. The major difference is veteran
quarterback Matt Stafford leads one team, the Lions, while the Vikings are on
their third quarterback in three seasons after finding their franchise quarterback
in Teddy Bridgewater. Case Keenum has stepped in and done as good a job as Sam
Bradford had done so far in relief of Bridgewater, and for the first time since
the late-90s, the Vikings have two threats at wide receiver. Much of the above
might not matter, however, as the game is forecasted for rain, which means
Minnesota has the advantage with rookie running back sensation Dalvin Cook (288 rushing yards; 4.7 ypc; 1 TD).
The key to this tragic game was the devastating season-ending injury to rookie sensation running back Dalvin Cook, who, if not for injury and Kareem Hunt, would have probably run away with the Rookie of the Year award. Both defenses dominated (Lions: 251 total yards; Vikings: 284 total yards), but only the Lions forced three turnovers, which, combined with Cook's injury, did the Vikings in.
The key to this tragic game was the devastating season-ending injury to rookie sensation running back Dalvin Cook, who, if not for injury and Kareem Hunt, would have probably run away with the Rookie of the Year award. Both defenses dominated (Lions: 251 total yards; Vikings: 284 total yards), but only the Lions forced three turnovers, which, combined with Cook's injury, did the Vikings in.
Carolina
Panthers 2-1 (+9.5) @ New England Patriots 2-1
(49):
Patriots 28-20 Panthers 33-30
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Sunny; mid-60s)
Reasons:
This is one of the most intriguing matchups of the week, at least from a
statistical perspective. Carolina enters the game the worst scoring offense in
the NFL, but the second-ranked scoring defense. New England comes into the game
with the second-ranked scoring offense in the NFL, but the worst scoring
defense. On paper we should expect a respective rise and regression to the offensive
and defensive means, but in reality, the Panthers are in trouble. The two
qualities the Panthers possess are a great defense, led by a solid front, and a
mobile quarterback. The Patriots have already faced these parameters twice (KC; HOU), while the Panthers haven’t
faced anything like the Patriots so far in 2017. Add this to the fact Cam
Newton has not showed any signs of returning to form after off-season shoulder
surgery and the point spread becomes clearer.
The Patriots, for the first time that I can remember in the Bill Belichick era, have the worst defense in the NFL. Not just statistically, but with the eye test as well. The Patriots, who have several Pro Bowl players on their defense, looked like a high school defense on Sunday, going so far as to motion two defensive backs with the same receiver at the same time. The Panthers committed two turnovers, but the Patriots defense played so bad the Panthers were leading 30-16 midway through the 4th quarter before a Deion Lewis touchdown run (8:46) and a Tom Brady touchdown pass to Danny Amendola (3:09) made it a 30-30 game. The Panthers then drove down the field in those final three minutes in 10 plays, setting up the game winning kick off Graham Gano's foot as the game expired. The Saints crushed the Panthers Week 2, the Patriots crushed the Saints Week 3 and then this happens Week 4. The National Parody League is back.
The Patriots, for the first time that I can remember in the Bill Belichick era, have the worst defense in the NFL. Not just statistically, but with the eye test as well. The Patriots, who have several Pro Bowl players on their defense, looked like a high school defense on Sunday, going so far as to motion two defensive backs with the same receiver at the same time. The Panthers committed two turnovers, but the Patriots defense played so bad the Panthers were leading 30-16 midway through the 4th quarter before a Deion Lewis touchdown run (8:46) and a Tom Brady touchdown pass to Danny Amendola (3:09) made it a 30-30 game. The Panthers then drove down the field in those final three minutes in 10 plays, setting up the game winning kick off Graham Gano's foot as the game expired. The Saints crushed the Panthers Week 2, the Patriots crushed the Saints Week 3 and then this happens Week 4. The National Parody League is back.
Jacksonville
Jaguars 2-1 (-3) @ New York Jets 1-2 (38.5): Jaguars 24-17 Jets 23-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
(Weather: Sunny; high 60s)
Reasons:
These aren’t your older brother’s Jaguars, but they might be your older brother’s
Jets. It’s hard to tell considering the Jets have only had a few quality
seasons in the past 20 years. I digress. New York enters the game not being
able to score, or stop people from scoring and that’s because they give up a
ton of yards and don’t really gain any themselves. Conversely, Jacksonville is
ranked in the top-four of all of those metrics, for maybe the first time in
team history, save offensive yards, where they rank 13th. The Jets
simply aren’t talented enough to beat anyone, and must rely on games against
Dolphins teams led by Jay Cutler to have any hope of winning. Get your tickets
fast, there are only 4,425 remaining as of Saturday.
This was a game of two halves, or more specifically, a tale of one half and then two quarters. After a first half in which these two teams tied 10-10, the Jets took control of the 3rd quarter 20-10, before the Jaguars returned the favor in the 4th quarter to tie the game 20-20. The two teams traded jabs before the Jets ultimately took the win on the foot of kicker Chandler Catanzaro, whose 41-yard FG with 28 seconds left in OT gave the Jets the win and a 2-2 record after four games. So much for the Jets being the worst team in the NFL.
This was a game of two halves, or more specifically, a tale of one half and then two quarters. After a first half in which these two teams tied 10-10, the Jets took control of the 3rd quarter 20-10, before the Jaguars returned the favor in the 4th quarter to tie the game 20-20. The two teams traded jabs before the Jets ultimately took the win on the foot of kicker Chandler Catanzaro, whose 41-yard FG with 28 seconds left in OT gave the Jets the win and a 2-2 record after four games. So much for the Jets being the worst team in the NFL.
The
Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens have provided NFL fans with
one of the league's greatest rivalries over the past decade.
Pittsburgh
Steelers 2-1 (-3) @ Baltimore Ravens 2-1 (42.5):
Ravens 21-20 Steelers 26-9
Sunday, 1:00 PM, M&T
Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Sunny;
high 60s)
Reasons: The last time Pittsburgh won in Baltimore it was
2012 and 14 of the past 19 AFC North battles have been decided by four or fewer
points. This is literally one of the best and most physical rivalries in NFL history and Sunday’s games looks to keep
pace. Both team enter Sunday coming off bad losses, yet the winner of this game
stands alone atop the AFC North. Pittsburgh’s offense has been nothing short of
disappointing so far this season (16th
scoring; 22nd yards gained), but the defense (3rd scoring defense; 3rd
yards allowed), seemingly ahead of schedule, has more than made up for the
Steelers lack of firepower. The Ravens always knew they’d struggle on offense,
and has also relied on their defense throughout the season (5th ranked scoring defense).
The league's most surprising team to many through the first two games of the season may have regressed back to the mean, if you were like me to start 2017 and thought the Ravens were not that good of a football team. Baltimore's defense, one of the best in 2016 and though the first two games of 2017, has now given up 70 points in their last two games and suddenly look mediocre. That's not good, because the offense is mediocre no matter how you look at it. The Steelers came away with their first win in Baltimore since 2012, but not without drama for the second week in a row. A week after differences in how the national anthem should be handled, Antonio Brown flipped out on the sidelines, throwing Gatorade containers and slapping away coaches attempts to calm him, because Ben Roethlisberger didn't see him wide open. Pittsburgh may have won the game, but they're losing the locker room.
The league's most surprising team to many through the first two games of the season may have regressed back to the mean, if you were like me to start 2017 and thought the Ravens were not that good of a football team. Baltimore's defense, one of the best in 2016 and though the first two games of 2017, has now given up 70 points in their last two games and suddenly look mediocre. That's not good, because the offense is mediocre no matter how you look at it. The Steelers came away with their first win in Baltimore since 2012, but not without drama for the second week in a row. A week after differences in how the national anthem should be handled, Antonio Brown flipped out on the sidelines, throwing Gatorade containers and slapping away coaches attempts to calm him, because Ben Roethlisberger didn't see him wide open. Pittsburgh may have won the game, but they're losing the locker room.
Tennessee
Titans 2-1 (-2.5) @ Houston Texans 1-2 (44): Titans 27-24 Texans 57-14
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Reliant
Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Texans have found their franchise quarterback in
Deshaun Watson, who almost became the first rookie quarterback ever to beat
Bill Belichick in New England. Almost. Tennessee has their best team since the
Music City Miracle days, with an offense that ranks in the top-five and a
defense that, when healthy, is capable of domination. Any team facing the
Texans will now have to contend with the dynamic Watson, which makes any game
plan difficult, but the Titans are getting healthy, and should soon be capable
of dominating.
The Tennessee Titans beat the Seattle Seahawks 33-27 and the New England Patriots beat the Houston Texans 36-33 Week 3, so naturally the Texans would go crazy and absolutely destroy the Titans by 43 points in Week 4. Marcus Mariota led the Titans in passing (96 yards; 2 INTs) and rushing (39 yards; 2 TDs), of which neither impressed, but also left the game with a hamstring injury and didn't return. Matt Cassell came in to replace Mariota and surrendered the only two sacks the Titans offensive line gave up and threw as many INTs (2) as Mariota did in the same amount of attempts (10). The real marvel was Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson, who threw for 283 yards and 4 TDs to go along with 26 rushing yards and another touchdown. If Watson can continue this type of play the Houston Texans might be the most dangerous team in the NFL going forward.
The Tennessee Titans beat the Seattle Seahawks 33-27 and the New England Patriots beat the Houston Texans 36-33 Week 3, so naturally the Texans would go crazy and absolutely destroy the Titans by 43 points in Week 4. Marcus Mariota led the Titans in passing (96 yards; 2 INTs) and rushing (39 yards; 2 TDs), of which neither impressed, but also left the game with a hamstring injury and didn't return. Matt Cassell came in to replace Mariota and surrendered the only two sacks the Titans offensive line gave up and threw as many INTs (2) as Mariota did in the same amount of attempts (10). The real marvel was Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson, who threw for 283 yards and 4 TDs to go along with 26 rushing yards and another touchdown. If Watson can continue this type of play the Houston Texans might be the most dangerous team in the NFL going forward.
Sunday, 4:05 PM, University of Phoenix Stadium,
Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons:
This is an interesting game statistically. At first glance this is a game
between a terrible team on the rise (SF)
against an aging dark horse NFC contender with a top-ranked defense that recently
lost its best offensive player (ARZ).
Truth be told, very little separates this team except for yardage, which be
explained away by their offensive philosophies: the young, largely talentless 49ers
run the ball because their only great player is Carlos Hyde; the Cardinals have
stud wide outs (Brown; Fitzgerald) and
a Heisman-winning No. 1 quarterback, albeit one near the end (Carson Palmer). Arizona is banged up, but
so is Hyde, so attrition could be a wash in this game. Look to the home team in
this match up, which will prove to be much more evenly matched than the 6.5-point
spread would suggest.
The second OT game of the week, the Cardinals beat their division rival 49ers with 32 seconds left in OT on a Larry Fitzgerald touchdown pass from Carson Palmer (Interesting note: the other OT game of Week 4, JAX v. NYJ, was won with 28 seconds left in OT). Robbie Gould hit the go-ahead field goal with 2:24 left in OT, which would've given the 49ers their first win of the season, but alas, Fitzgerald came across the middle in the back of the end zone and sacrificed his body as he's done his entire career for the Cardinals to seal the victory.
The second OT game of the week, the Cardinals beat their division rival 49ers with 32 seconds left in OT on a Larry Fitzgerald touchdown pass from Carson Palmer (Interesting note: the other OT game of Week 4, JAX v. NYJ, was won with 28 seconds left in OT). Robbie Gould hit the go-ahead field goal with 2:24 left in OT, which would've given the 49ers their first win of the season, but alas, Fitzgerald came across the middle in the back of the end zone and sacrificed his body as he's done his entire career for the Cardinals to seal the victory.
Philadelphia
Eagles 2-1 (+2)
@ Los Angeles Chargers 0-3 (47.5): Chargers 27-24 Eagles 26-24
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Stub Hub Center, Carson, CA (Weather: Sunny; mid-70s)
Reasons:
I said last week I wouldn’t bet against a desperate Phillip Rivers and I lost.
So here I am again pleading the same case, because Rivers has to be really
desperate at this point. 0-3 is bad, but manageable with the talent Los Angeles
has, but 0-4 would be a death sentence in the AFC West. Rivers has flashed his
typical brilliance at times, but he’s thrown as many TDs this season as
interceptions (5). The Eagles come
into the game leaning on their quarterback as well, but also as one of the league’s
offensive juggernauts (10th points;
9th yards gained). Philadelphia was dealt a blow last week,
losing 3rd down back Darren Sproles for the season, and also comes
into the game banged up on defense. The Chargers will look to take advantage of
that attrition, assuming the Chargers are at full strength themselves (Melvin Gordon Q), and get their first
win of 2017 in their new “home”.
I'm running out of belief for a desperate Phillip Rivers. Since the Chargers started Rivers for the first time in 2006 they have lost 25 games by three or fewer points, by far the most during that span (Drew Brees has lost 20 such games). Rivers pulled the Chargers within two points on a Hunter Henry touchdown that was called off, but then reversed with 6:44 left in the game. It was the second time in the quarter the Chargers had pulled within two points, but the Eagles proved to be too much for Los Angeles, holding the ball for twice as long as long as the Chargers (39:18) and out-gaining them on the ground 214 to yards to 58.
I'm running out of belief for a desperate Phillip Rivers. Since the Chargers started Rivers for the first time in 2006 they have lost 25 games by three or fewer points, by far the most during that span (Drew Brees has lost 20 such games). Rivers pulled the Chargers within two points on a Hunter Henry touchdown that was called off, but then reversed with 6:44 left in the game. It was the second time in the quarter the Chargers had pulled within two points, but the Eagles proved to be too much for Los Angeles, holding the ball for twice as long as long as the Chargers (39:18) and out-gaining them on the ground 214 to yards to 58.
Jameis Winston needs to cut down on the turnovers if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers want beat a great Giants defense on Sunday.
New York
Giants 0-3 (+3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-1
(44.5):
Bucs 24-23 Bucs 25-23
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL
(Weather: 60% storms; mid-70s)
Reasons: Storms are forecasted for this game and there’s a
good chance for really bad weather, too. I apologize for that terrible joke,
but there’s no joking about the mental state of New York’s best player, and my
fantasy keeper, in one Odell Beckham Jr. The weather could get nasty Sunday
afternoon, which means the game could come down the play of the two defenses
and grounds games, the latter of which neither team possesses. Jameis Winston,
who is one of the best quarterbacks in the league when he’s throwing to the
right team, has never won a game in the NFL when his team rushes fewer than 25
times. That could play right into Tampa Bay’s hands considering the weather and
New York’s defense, except TB doesn’t really have anyone to carry the ball that
many times. For reference, leading rusher Jaquizz Rodgers has 24 total carries. As for the Giants, if
they can’t throw the ball Sunday in the rain they might as well pack 2017 up,
because they’ll have wasted one of the league’s most talented defenses on one
of the worst offensive lines we’ve seen in decades, to go along with a wasted
year for the mercurially talented OBJ, who can’t even get out of his own head.
The weather did effect the game Sunday, with both teams combining for three missed field goals and a missed PAT (Nick Folk). Eli Manning hit Rhett Ellison in the end zone with 3:16 remaining to put the Giants up 23-22, but the two-point conversion to Odell Beckham Jr. failed, giving the Bucs over three minutes to march down the field to set up Nick Folk to kick the game-winning field goal as the clock expired, with Folk already having missed two FGs and an extra point. Folk squeaked the 32-yard field goal by the right upright to send the Giants to 0-4.
The weather did effect the game Sunday, with both teams combining for three missed field goals and a missed PAT (Nick Folk). Eli Manning hit Rhett Ellison in the end zone with 3:16 remaining to put the Giants up 23-22, but the two-point conversion to Odell Beckham Jr. failed, giving the Bucs over three minutes to march down the field to set up Nick Folk to kick the game-winning field goal as the clock expired, with Folk already having missed two FGs and an extra point. Folk squeaked the 32-yard field goal by the right upright to send the Giants to 0-4.
Oakland
Raiders 2-1 (+3)
@ Denver Broncos 2-1 (46): Broncos 28-24 Broncos 16-10
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: 30% rain; 50s)
Reasons:
The Raiders bandwagon gained a few more spots Monday night after Oakland lost
to a Washington team that’s much better than people think. Of course there’s no
reason for alarm in Oakland, as every team has a bad night, especially against
talented football teams, and the Raiders offense remains one of the best (9th scoring), anchored by the
AFC’s best offensive line. The
problem this Sunday is the Raiders skill guys have been limited all week (Crabtree; Cooper) and Denver’s defense
is troublesome to say the least. The Broncos haven’t allowed 300 yards to an
opponent once this season, and their pass rush and secondary make most
quarterbacks, even the great Derek Carr, seem mediocre. The weather could be an
issue and would favor Denver heavily, as if the noise at Mile High Stadium isn’t
a serious enough issue for the Raiders to begin with.
The Raiders could be in serious trouble. Derek Carr fractured his back and Marshawn Lynch was held to minimal yards for the third of four games so far this season as the stifling Broncos defense (254 yards allowed) not only stopped the Raiders Sunday, but may have slowed them for the foreseeable future. The game ultimately came down to the kickers, with Brandon McManus kicking the go-ahead (36 yards) and game-clinching field goals (46 yards) in the 3rd quarter.
The Raiders could be in serious trouble. Derek Carr fractured his back and Marshawn Lynch was held to minimal yards for the third of four games so far this season as the stifling Broncos defense (254 yards allowed) not only stopped the Raiders Sunday, but may have slowed them for the foreseeable future. The game ultimately came down to the kickers, with Brandon McManus kicking the go-ahead (36 yards) and game-clinching field goals (46 yards) in the 3rd quarter.
Indianapolis
Colts 1-2 (+13) @ Seattle Seahawks 1-2
(47.5):
Seahawks 21-10 Seahawks 46-18
Sunday, 8:30 PM, CenturyLink
Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: Cloudy;
low-50s)
Reasons: This has blood bath written all over it. The Colts
are a statistical nightmare, the numbers only slightly skewed because they
dropped 31 points on the hapless Browns last week. In other words, Indianapolis
is statistically one of the three worst teams in the NFL. The funny thing is Seattle
isn’t that much better, despite occasional illusions. The offense gains yards,
but ranks near the bottom in points scored (26th).
Seattle’s offensive line could challenge the NYG as the NFL’s worst, and they
have no running game to speak of. The offense revolves almost entirely on Russell
Wilson, Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham, the latter two being questionable for
Sunday’s game. The Seahawks bread-and-butter is once again the defense, which
might’ve been ranked even higher than 8th in points allowed if they
hadn’t surrendered 27 points to Tennessee last Sunday. Seattle is definitely
far better than Indianapolis, despite my previous assertion, but with an offense
as bad as Seattle’s it’s hard to justify 13 points.
The Colts went into the half leading 15-10, but the Seahawks exploded in the second half to take over the game. The Seahawks went up 18-15 half way through the 3rd quarter before Indianapolis tied the game 18-18 on their next possession via Adam VinaTieri's 40-yard field goal. Seattle went on a tirade from that point on, scoring 28 unanswered points via two Russell Wilson passing TDs (21-26 for 295 passing yards; 2 TDs; 2 INTs), a touchdown run by JD McKissic and a fumble return by Bobby Wagner. The Colts are no measuring stick, but the Seahawks have to be happy with a win that excelled in all phases.
The Colts went into the half leading 15-10, but the Seahawks exploded in the second half to take over the game. The Seahawks went up 18-15 half way through the 3rd quarter before Indianapolis tied the game 18-18 on their next possession via Adam VinaTieri's 40-yard field goal. Seattle went on a tirade from that point on, scoring 28 unanswered points via two Russell Wilson passing TDs (21-26 for 295 passing yards; 2 TDs; 2 INTs), a touchdown run by JD McKissic and a fumble return by Bobby Wagner. The Colts are no measuring stick, but the Seahawks have to be happy with a win that excelled in all phases.
Washington Football
Team 2-1 (+7) @ Kansas City Chiefs 3-0 (49.5):
Chiefs 28-20 Chiefs 29-20
Monday, 8:30 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Partly cloudy; low-70s)
Reasons:
Kansas City might be the best
team in the NFL. They haven’t lost, have beaten New England and Philadelphia
along the way, have the league’s leading rusher, who just happens to be a
rookie, and rank in the top-10 in scoring offense (3rd) and defense (7th).
Unfortunately the Chiefs will be without starting center Mitch Morse and could
be without starting left tackle Eric Fisher. Kansas City could also be without Dee
Ford at outside linebacker, as well as reserve linebacker Kevin Pierre-Louis,
meaning the Chiefs could be really thin in the middle of their defense and
might be without two of their best offensive linemen. Washington doesn’t bode
much better, as they could be without key defensive players (LB Mason Foster, S DJ Swearinger, DE Jon Allen),
as well as wide receiver Jamison Crowder. If not for these players being
limited all week I’d be inclined to give Washington more of a shot, but I don’t,
and obviously the books don’t either.
The Chiefs gained 100 more yards, possessed the ball for 15 more minutes and had nearly double the first downs (29 to 15) as Washington, yet it took a 43-yard field goal from Harrison Butker with four seconds left in the game to win it. Justin Houston recovered a botched lateral in the midst of a last ditch effort by Washington, and returned the fumble as time expired, which not only allowed the Chiefs (-6.5 to -7 depending on the book) to cover, but may have even hit the over (if your O/U was 48). The game featured two of the better teams in the NFL, Kansas City probably being the best of them all, but all the excitement came down to the final play, which sent Las Vegas, and the author, into a tailspin. Kareem Hunt had another 100-yard rushing game and remains the most exciting player in the NFL, despite only being a rookie.
The Chiefs gained 100 more yards, possessed the ball for 15 more minutes and had nearly double the first downs (29 to 15) as Washington, yet it took a 43-yard field goal from Harrison Butker with four seconds left in the game to win it. Justin Houston recovered a botched lateral in the midst of a last ditch effort by Washington, and returned the fumble as time expired, which not only allowed the Chiefs (-6.5 to -7 depending on the book) to cover, but may have even hit the over (if your O/U was 48). The game featured two of the better teams in the NFL, Kansas City probably being the best of them all, but all the excitement came down to the final play, which sent Las Vegas, and the author, into a tailspin. Kareem Hunt had another 100-yard rushing game and remains the most exciting player in the NFL, despite only being a rookie.
Stay tuned for Week 5 #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) coming Thursday and Sunday!
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