2017 NFL SEASON
Week 8:
#NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
Week 8 results: 11-2 wins (season: 64-42; .604); 6-7 v. spread
(season: 53-53; .500)
Miami Dolphins 4-2 (+3) @ Baltimore Ravens 3-4 (37.5): Dolphins 20-17 Ravens
40-0
Thursday, 8:25 PM,
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather:
Clear; low 50s)
Reasons:
The
Dolphins come into Thursday night’s game winners of three straight, despite
losing Jay Cutler (7 TDs; 5 INTs),
because Matt Moore might be a better fit anyway. The Ravens have lost two
straight, and four of their last five, although one of those loses came in OT (27-24 to CHI) and three of those four
losses have come against three of the best defenses in the NFL (JAX, PIT, MIN). Now Baltimore faces their fourth
top-10 defense in five weeks as Miami comes into the game ranked 10th
in yards allowed and 6th in points allowed; the Dolphins also happen
to have one of the worst offenses in the league (31st points scored; 32nd yards gained), which
makes the Ravens task not as daunting. Baltimore isn’t the same team anymore,
though, and their polarizing leader Terrell Suggs is questionable, meaning the
Ravens defense that yields over 145 rushing yards a game could let the Dolphins
and running back Jay Ajayi (442 rushing
yards; 3.5 ypc) run wild.
I
don’t mind being wrong, but being so wrong on the first game of the week was
tough; not
quite as tough as Joe Flacco had it on a penalized, but not dirty, hit by Kiko
Alonzo, but tough. Flacco was concussed
in the first half attempting to gain a first down when Alonzo hit him in what
ended up being the head area. After the dust settled and John Harbaugh gave out
his weekly Bush League Award the Ravens went about destroying the Dolphins on
national television and making your boy look foolish.
Minnesota Vikings 5-2 (-9.5) @ Cleveland Browns 0-7 (38): Vikings 24-17
Vikings 33-16
Reasons:
Normally I’d crack a joke about hoe we’ve given London the worst slate
of games imaginable, but the truth is, the London games have been pretty exciting,
at least from the standpoint of scoring. There not be much of that Sunday
morning (in the United States, anyway)
as the Vikings come into the game with one of the most feared defenses in the
NFL to accompany to pretty good offense, with or without Sam Bradford. The
Browns, on the other hand, are hopeless.
The Browns held a
16-15 lead towards the end of the 3rd quarter, but 17 unanswered
points by the Vikings, mostly on the arm of Case Keenum, gave anyone who wasn’t
watching the game the impression it was probably a Minnesota blowout from
beginning to end. In a way it was a blowout. The Vikings held the Browns to only 276 yards
on just over 22 minutes of possession, forcing two turnovers and sacking
struggling rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer three times.
Oakland Raiders 3-4 (+2.5) @ Buffalo Bills 4-2 (45.5): Bills 21-20 Bills 34-14
Sunday, 1:00
PM, New Era Field, Buffalo, NY (Weather:
Chance rain; high 40s)
Reasons:
The Raiders are slowly climbing back into existence, just when their
division became clogged, but unfortunately for them they run into the buzz saw
known as the Bills (4th points
allowed) Sunday. Buffalo is no offensive juggernaut, but they
only average two fewer points and 12 fewer yards than the Raiders, who
supposedly are one.
The Raiders returned
to struggling on both sides of the ball again Sunday, perhaps because they were
missing Marshawn Lynch after Lynch’s suspension appeal failed. That obviously
wouldn’t explain Oakland’s defensive struggles, but LeSean McCoy could (27
carries for 151 rushing yards; 6 receptions; 1 TD). The Bills defense shut
the Raiders offense down, forcing four Oakland turnovers, including two interceptions
by Derek Carr. Remarkably there were no sacks from Oakland’s Kahlil Mack or one
of the league’s best defenses in Buffalo. The Bills are actually for real.
Maybe.
Indianapolis Colts 2-5 (+10.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals 2-4 (41.5): Bengals 27-17 Bengals
24-23
Sunday, 1:00
PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather:
Mostly sunny; low 70s)
Reasons:
It’s hard to believe the Bengals have nearly the same terrible record
as the woeful, Luckless, pun intended, Colts. Then again, nothing is hard to believe
with the most unpredictable team in the NFL the past decade. This one shouldn’t
be too hard to predict, though, as Cincinnati is home and Indianapolis is one
of the three worst teams in the league, statistically and eye-test
speaking.
Originally I had
this game 24-20, but at the last minute I decided the Bengals were at home and
their offense was good enough to score an additional three points against the woeful
Colts, but the Bengals offense was barely good enough to even beat Indianapolis, which
led 23-17 11:21 into the 4th quarter until Carlos Dunlap returned a
Jacoby Ellsbury pass at the 16-yard line and took it to the house for the
game-winning touchdown.
Los Angeles Chargers 3-4 (+7)
@ New England Patriots 5-2 (48.5):
Patriots 27-24 Patriots
21-13
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Heavy rain; low 60s)
Reasons: New England is
2-2 at home through their first four games for the first time in a long time,
and Los Angeles is one of the hottest teams in the NFL, winners of three
straight. That doesn’t mean my money is on the Chargers to win, per se, but the
Patriots getting seven points considering the aforementioned information seems
a bit excessive. Perhaps the people in charge of such things are looking at the radar and
seeing a game won on the ground, of which the Patriots gain 31 more yards
per game, the same amount the Chargers defense yields to opponents, relative to
the Patriots.
The weather was terrible and the Patriots did
what they do best, adapting to the conditions and taking the opponent’s best
player(s) out of the game. It doesn’t hurt – the Patriots anyway – when your opponent’s
best skill player, Travis Benjamin, inexplicable muffs a punt in the end zone
for a safety, which set a subsequent New England field goal, one of four
on the day for embattled kicker Stephen Gostkowski.
Chicago Bears 3-4 (+9) @ New Orleans Saints 4-2 (47.5): Saints 28-21 Saints
20-12
Sunday, 1:00 PM, SuperDome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Saints
actually are the hottest team in the
NFL, and although the Bears have certainly shocked many people, especially with
a rookie quarterback throwing less than 50% of the tiny amount of pass attempts
the Bears allow him, mainly because he’s played top defenses (BAL; CAR), but the Saints are home and Drew
Brees is locked in.
The Saints have now won five straight games,
their latest win against the Bears coming without a touchdown from Drew Brees.
I guess the Saints, in genera, are locked in, except Mark Ingram, apparently (2
lost fumbles). The New Orleans defense took advantage of the one-dimensional
Bears,
managing nine tackles for loss, while giving rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky fits,
defending eight of his passes, knocking him down seven times and sacking him twice.
Atlanta Falcons 3-3 (-6) @ New York Jets 3-4 (45.5): Falcons 24-21 Falcons
25-20
Sunday,
1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Heavy rain; low 70s)
Reasons:
The Falcons have lost three straight, after winning their first four, and all
three of those loses have come against the AFC East - all of them. What’s
worse is the high-flying Falcons have managed fewer than 14 points against all
the AFC East opponents (BUF, MIA, NE).
There are answers: The Dolphins and Bills possess two of the best defenses in
the NFL and the Falcons had the unpleasant task of facing the team that
humiliated them in SBLI in the thickest fog people could remember in 25 years.
The Falcons have a great chance to redeem themselves with a solid running game against
a scrappy, but inconsistent Jets team, but the weather could have the most impact.
The Jets took a
17-16 lead several minutes into the 4th quarter, putting the NFC
Champion Falcons in danger of being swept by the AFC East in 2017, which just happens
to be the division owned by a certain New England Patriots team. Then the 2016
MVP Matt Ryan found Mohammed Sanu in the soaking wet end zone for the
game-winning touchdown, avoiding that fate.
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Heavy rain; low 70s)
Reasons:
This is your classic trap game, with the winless 49ers coming across the
country to play an early afternoon game against the best team in the NFC, but if we’re
being realistic, the only trapping part of this game is the spread,
which, even given the remarkable circumstances, is a little ridiculous at 12.5
points. The Eagles are missing their left tackle in Jason Peters, gone for the
season, so although the Eagles managed to win big last week, it’ll be
interesting to see how Philadelphia handles the absence going forward.
49ers quarterback CJ
Beathard led the team in passing and rushing and only managed 207 total yards,
so that about summed up San Francisco’s chances against the NFC-leading Eagles.
Philadelphia’s defense impressed again, holding the 49ers to 238 total yards in
over 27 minutes, intercepting Beathard twice and sacking him four times. The Eagles proved
the can still dominate even when their offense isn’t clicking and the 49ers were
beat hard. Sorry, I couldn’t resist.
Carolina Panthers 4-3 (+1.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-4 (46): Buccaneers 21-20 Panthers
17-3
Sunday,
1:00 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Sunny; low 70s)
Reasons:
I don’t trust the Carolina Panthers or their mentally fragile quarterback at
all, even with an arguably equally mentally fragile quarterback across the
field. Of course both observations could be characterized as passionate and
misunderstood, but there’s a reason the NFL wants the head of their proverbial
snake to be both cerebral and simultaneously calm under any type of pressure,
whether that be on or off the field. Both quarterbacks seem to struggle with
both at times, which is why both teams struggle at times. Cam Newton might
thrive on pressure, but he’s been under pressure for two years now and the
results have been mixed at best. Meanwhile, the chip on Jameis Winston’s
shoulder from a recent benching is so big it could feed the greater Tampa
region. Don’t we all want just a little bit more from two number one overall
draft picks who both won Heisman trophies and both won National Championships?
What, did you forget about all that?
The return of
linebacker Luke Kuechly (8 tackles; 1.5 for loss) set the stage for another dominating
performance by the Carolina defense, the team’s saving grace for much of the
time Cam Newton has been quarterback, masking his myriad mistakes and the
reason behind much of Newton’s success. Newton was mediocre at best, although
he led the team in passing and rushing, accounting for only 198 total yards and
a touchdown to go along with the Panther’s lone turnover (INT); the other
former Heisman-winning quarterback opposite the field, Jameis Winston, was even
worse, throwing two interceptions and only 210 passing yards on 38 attempts.
Houston Texans 3-3 (+6) @ Seattle Seahawks 4-2 (45.5): Seahawks 24-21 Seahawks 41-38
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Century Link Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: Clear; mid-50s)
Reasons: Rookie
quarterback sensation Deshaun Watson is about to get his first dose
of true NFL reality Sunday afternoon as the Texans face the league’s top
scoring defense (15.7 ppg), also
top-10 in the league in yards allowed (8th).
The Texans are a relatively average team statistically, with the exception of
scoring offense, where they rank 3rd but a few tenths of a point,
but that surge has come mostly on the arm of the aforementioned Watson, who
will be under duress most of the day.
Rookie quarterback sensation Deshaun Watson threw
for 405 yards passing and four TDs to go along with 67 yards rushing on eight
attempts as he continued his meteoric rise to NFL stardom, giving him 19
passing TDs on the year, seven short of the rookie record held by Peyton Manning
and one Russell Wilson, Watson’s opponent Sunday. Wilson just happened to throw
four touchdown passes himself, to go along with 452 passing yards; Wilson also
led his team in rushing, albeit with only 30 yards. Teacher beat pupil/idol on
an 18-yard seed to tight end Jimmy Graham with only 21 seconds remaining, just
over four minutes after Watson himself thought he had thrown the game-winning
touchdown. Watson’s three INTs played into the Seahawks hands, and will
certainly be a learning experience going forward, but the likely 2017 Rookie of
the Year had the NFL’s best defense on the ropes until the last minute, literally.
This is a mid-season candidate for 2017 Game of the Year.
Dallas Cowboys 3-3 (-2) @ Washington Football Team
3-3 (49): Cowboys 24-23 Cowboys
33-19
Sunday, 4:25 PM, FedEx Field, East Landover, MD (Weather: Heavy rain; high 50s)
Reasons: The most evenly
matched game of Week 8 will decide who is still at least two games behind the
Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East, but more importantly, will be decided by Mother Nature, who will be
raining heavily upon the field throughout the game. That means the team with
the best ground game most likely wins, which is clearly Dallas, and that
running game compounded with Dak Prescott’s dink-and-dunk skills, we have a
recipe for a Cowboys win.
I was feeling pretty good about my prediction
when Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins finally got the ball to Josh Doctson
in the end zone with just over four minutes left, because I believed Washington
would get the ball back, drive down the field, score a touchdown, and then miss
the extra point to lose the game 26-25, making me look smarter than I really
am. The funny thing is, that exact scenario played out, except Cousins threw the
ball to Byron Jones and Jones plays for the Cowboys. Jones returned the
interception for a touchdown and we have what looks like a blow out. If you
were going by Ezekiel Elliot’s stats, it was. Elliot exploded again, this time for
150 yards rushing and two TDs on 33 carries, but the good news quickly
dissipated with the bad news that the appeals court once again upheld Elliot’s
suspension. And around and around we go…
(Note: Cowboys kicker Mike Nugent lost a try
out to be Washington’s kicker the week before this game. Nugent ended up
signing with the Cowboys and then kicked five field goals in a 33-19 game that theoretically
would have otherwise been 19-18 without him.)
Pittsburgh Steelers 5-2 (-3) @ Detroit Lions 3-3 (45.5): Steelers 28-27 Steelers 20-15
Sunday, 8:30 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Reasons: The Steelers are
hot and might have the best overall defense in the NFL (2nd points allowed; 3rd yards allowed), but
the Lions have Matthew Stafford and are completely inconsistent, so you never
know what to expect. Detroit started the season 3-1 with a defense yielding
16.5 ppg; since then they’re 0-2, both against the questionable NFC South (NO; CAR), and now their defense is yielding
more than double that per game (39.5 ppg).
Regardless, it’s hard to bet against Matt Stafford, especially getting three
points at home.
JuJu Smith-Schuster found his bike all right,
in the form of 193 receiving yards and a touchdown the same week he
reached social media and Internet infamy because of the aforementioned stolen bicycle.
One would’ve thought Matt Stafford (453 passing yards) was throwing him the
ball, but Stafford was just throwing another gaudy statistical passing game in
a loss, something Stafford has grown accustomed to with Detroit. His high
school teammate Clayton Kershaw was doing the same thing that night in Houston
in their hometown state of Texas: playing at the highest level in his perspective
sport while taking a loss.
Denver Broncos 3-3 (+7) @ Kansas City Chiefs 5-2 (43): Chiefs 27-21 Chiefs 29-19
Monday, 8:30 PM, Arrowhead
Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Partly cloudy; high 30s)
Reasons: The Chiefs went
from the best team in the NFL to unpredictable in four days last week, and the
Kansas City defense, considered perhaps the best in the league at one point in
the season, is now ranked 29th in yards allowed and 19th in
points allowed, not exactly fear-inspiring. The Broncos, however, are a mess. The
Denver defense remains top notch (1st
yards allowed; 9th points allowed), but the offense is becoming
atrocious. Since their Week 2 win against Dallas Cowboys, in which they scored
42 points, the Broncos are 1-3 averaging 10.5 points per game, with each game
producing fewer points then the last. It’s on the shoulders of Trevor Siemian
to make things right, which means Denver is in trouble.
The Chiefs got back on track Monday night after
losing two games in four days last week to go from the league’s unquestionably
best team to JAT (Just Another Team), beating the flailing division rival
Broncos. Nobody lit up the score boards, despite Kansas City’s 29 points, because
this was a contest between two of the best defenses in the NFL, even if the
Chiefs don’t stack up statistically. We saw that defensive battle Monday night when
Kansas City forced five Denver turnovers (3 INTs; 2 fumbles), and Denver held Kansas
City to field goals on five possessions. The only standout in the game,
offensively, was Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce, who reeled in 133 of Alex Smith’s
202 passing yards and his only touchdown. The defense had plenty of highlights,
most notably Marcus Peters, whose fumble return for a touchdown not only helped
the Chiefs win Monday, but helped them gain ground in the division by helping
get his cousin/friend/whatever Marshawn Lynch suspended this week.
Week 8 #NFL byes: Arizona
Cardinals; Green Bay Packers; Jacksonville Jaguars; Los Angeles Rams; New York
Giants; Tennessee Titans
Stay tuned for Week 9:
#NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) coming Thursday and
Sunday morning!
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