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Tuesday, October 24, 2017

Tuesday's Gone: Week 7 #NFL Game Reviews

Ohhhh yeeeaaahhh. The Kool Aid Man has the Kansas Chiefs rolling and the best team in the NFL has Super Bowl aspirations in a league turned on its head in 2017.


2017 NFL SEASON

Week 7: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)
Week 7 results: 12-3 wins (season: 53-40; .570); 9-6 v. spread (season: 47-46; .505)



Kansas City Chiefs 5-1 (-3) @ Oakland Raiders 2-4 (46.5): Chiefs 24-23 Raiders 31-30
Thursday, 8:25 PM, Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, CA (Weather: 40% rain; high 50s)

Reasons: When I wrote our NFL preview this preseason I never imagined this Week 7 AFC West divisional game would feature a 2-4 Raiders team, but here we are. Seems like a mismatch, right? I want to break down the game statistically, but then I’d have to tell you the hapless Raiders defense is actually statistically better than Kansas City’s vaunted defense (OAK: 12th scoring defense/23rd yards allowed; KC: 13th scoring defense/29th yards allowed). That’s how whacky this 2017 NFL season has been so far. The problem is Oakland’s defense is better then their own offense (18th scoring; 30th yards gained), which is a problem considering the Raiders are actually supposed to be an offensive juggernaut. On the other side, we can’t hold the Chiefs Week 6 loss to Pittsburgh against Kansas City too much, as the Steelers not only possess one of the best defenses in the NFL (Note: The Steelers rank 1st in points and yards allowed for teams having played all 6 games in 2017), they haven’t lost to the Chiefs in a while. Kansas City’s offense should travel well in the rain on short rest and comes into the game ranked in the top-7 in time of possession (7th), 3rd-down efficiency (6th), turnover ratio (3rd), yards (2nd), yards per play (1st), and scoring (1st), but also come in with key injuries on the offensive line. Look for the Chiefs to rebound, but on a short week with attrition, I wouldn’t expect the Chiefs to roll.

The Thursday night game excitement continues. Just when the NFL was considering ditching these games they've blown up into must-see television. While we're talking about what could have been, how about the Chiefs losing two games in four days and going from the league's best team to tied with the Bills and Dolphin in the loss column? The Chiefs led 30-24 going into the 4th quarter, but the Raiders kicked a field goal to make it 30-24 with 3:54 left in the game; then Oakland benefited from two defensive holding calls with 0:00 left on the clock, the most bizarre ending to a game I can recall, allowing the Raiders to score the go-ahead touchdown with time still expired. Marshawn Lynch was ejected for running onto the field and bumping an official, but he made it the stands to finish the game and then joined Raiders fans on the BART on the way home.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-3 (+3.5) @ Buffalo Bills 3-2 (45): Bills 21-20 Bills 30-27
Sunday, 1:00 PM, New Era Field, Buffalo, NY (Weather: Mostly sunny; low 70s)

Reasons: A recent benching could light a fire in Jameis Winston, if he makes it onto the field, but unfortunately for Winston and the Buccaneers they face the league’s top scoring defense in the Bills. Adding to the game intrigue is the fact the Buccaneers have yet to win on the road, while the Bills have yet to lose at home. 

Jameis Winston not only made it onto the field, but showed the league he didn't like being benched, throwing for 384 yards and three touchdowns against the mighty Buffalo defense. It wasn't enough, however, as the Buccaneers turned the ball over three times, including a Winston interception, and gave up 10 unanswered 4th quarter points to the Bills allowing Buffalo to steal the win from Tampa Bay. 
 
 Carolina Panthers 4-2 (-3) @ Chicago Bears 2-4 (41): Panthers 24-17 Bears 17-3
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: 50% rain; low 70s)

Reasons: The Bears are one of only two teams in the NFL (Cleveland Browns) that are among the league leaders in yards allowed (6th), yet in the bottom quarter of the league in points allowed (25th), which means they won’t give up many big plays to the Panthers, but they’ll give up plenty of points. It’s hard to believe the Panthers, which ranks in the top-10 in both said defensive categories, will lose to a rookie quarterback with mixed results in his only two starts.

The Carolina Panthers are becoming the most unpredictable team in the NFL, and they might've taken that title from the Chicago Bears, the very team that just beat them with a rookie quarterback that went 4-7 passing for 107 yards. 

Tennessee Titans 3-3 (-6) @ Cleveland Browns 0-6 (45.5): Titans 27-24 Titans 12-9
Sunday, 1:00 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Sunny; mid-70s)

Reasons: Remember the Browns? We just talked about them. They’re awful, but the Titans aren’t exactly barnburners. That’s not a William Faulkner joke, nor am I related to him, despite my witty football prose. The Titans give up the second-most points in the NFL (27.3 ppg), but the Browns are bad at everything, except for that wacky yards allowed stat (8th), and the Titans have actually something to play for. Get your tickets fast; there are only 3,000 left and they start at $6.

68 minutes of trash, which in this case means 553 yards of total offense and 35 combined first downs. The Browns even tuned the ball over three times and it still took the Titans 80% of overtime just to kick a go-ahead field goal. The Titans are no where near where they need to be.


Marcus Mariota leads the Tennessee Titans into Cleveland to face the win less Browns.



New Orleans Saints 3-2 (-4) @ Green Bay Packers 4-2 (47.5): Saints 27-24 Saints 26-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: 70% rain; high 50s)

Reasons: Don’t look now but the Saints might be the hottest team in the NFL, winning three straight games after dropping their first two games big while looking miserable. The Packers, on the other hand, just had their head chopped off.

The Aaron Rodgers-less Packers led 17-16 shortly into the 4th quarter largely due to the Aaron Jones-more rushing attack, which produced 131 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries, but Drew Brees went Drew Brees and led the Saints to the big road win, albeit against one of the worst teams in the NFL now that the best player in the NFL is on injured reserve. 

Jacksonville Jaguars 3-3 (-3) @ Indianapolis Colts 2-4 (43.5): Jaguars 30-20 Jaguars 30-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: The Jaguars are sneaky good. They’re actually very good, but who trusts the Jaguars? You probably should, especially against these Colts, statistically one of the worst teams in the NFL. Additionally, the Colts only two wins have come against the Browns by three points and the Cardinals in OT. The Colts are the worst scoring defense in the NFL, giving up six more points per game than the 30th-ranked New England Patriots; to find the next 6-point differential from New England one would have to venture into the top-10 defenses in the league, a separation of 20 teams. The Colts are really bad.

The Jaguars were firing on all claws Sunday, even the oft-mocked Blake Bortles (330 yards passing; 1 touchdown), which makes them one of the most dangerous teams in the NFL. TJ Yeldon (9 carries for 121 yards; 1 TD) ran well in place of Leonard Fournette and the Jacksonville defense had 13 tackles for loss, hit Colts quarterback Jacoby Brisette 21 times, and sacked him a franchise record-tying10 times, shutting out Indianapolis, their first time being shutout since 2003.

Arizona Cardinals 3-3 (+3) @ Los Angeles Rams 4-2 (45.5): Rams 28-24 Rams 30-0
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Twickenham Stadium, London, England (Weather: Indoors)

Reasons: I’ve given up trying to predict these London games accurately, especially at a place called Twickenham, which sounds like a wizard could fly into the stadium thinking he’s going to witness actual rams and cardinals battling and destroy the place in disappointment. Assuming that doesn’t happen, London is about to get a dose of the young hot Rams.

London got to see the Cardinals season implode within the forearm of quarterback Carson Palmer while Todd Gurley (22 carries for 106 yards; 1 TD) and the Rams defense continued to dominate.

New York Jets 3-3 (+3.5) @ Miami Dolphins 3-2 (38): Dolphins 20-17 Dolphins 31-28
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: 20% rain; low 80s)

Reasons: Move along, nothing to see here. The Dolphins were probably excited to sign Jay Cutler at some point, but I imagine that excitement has waned. Miami comes into the game with the worst scoring offense in the league, and it almost seems like all-time (12.2 ppg). They also gain the fewest yards (243 ypg). The Jets aren’t much better, but they're better than a three-point spread. 

The Jets led 28-14 deep into the 4th quarter before Matt Moore came into the game in relief of an injured and apathetic Jay Cutler and threw two touchdowns to even the score before the suffocating Miami defense forced a Jets turnover, one of two on the day, leading to Miami's game-winning field goal with 22 seconds remaining. 


 Ndamukong Suh leads the Miami Dolphins 3rd-ranked scoring defense against the division rival New York Jets Sunday.


Baltimore Ravens 3-3 (+5.5) @ Minnesota Vikings 4-2 (38.5): Vikings 21-17 Vikings 24-16
Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)

Reasons: Word on the street is Teddy Bridgewater is back at practice. Suddenly the Vikings have a good quarterback problem, one that involves a record-breaking season (Sam Bradford) and a toss-away backup who threw for 300+ yards (Case Keenum). Of course that has nothing to do with this game, but the Vikings defense (5th yards allowed; 5th points allowed) will have plenty to do with it.

The Vikings won this game doing what they do best, running the ball (Latavius Murray: 18 carries for 113 yards; 1 TD) and with great defense (BAL: 208 total yards).

Dallas Cowboys 2-3 (-6) @ San Francisco 49ers 0-6 (48.5): Cowboys 24-20 Cowboys 40-10
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Levis Stadium, Santa Clara, CA (Weather: Sunny; high 60s)

Reasons: If only it were 1994. It isn’t, but this game won’t be nearly as lopsided as people might have imagined a few weeks ago. Ezekiel Elliot has escaped suspension again, but you have to assume the constant flip-flopping has to be mentally taxing, and it seems to be. Then again, defenders watch tape and Elliot’s predictable decline is probably more a function of defensive game planning and Dez Bryant’s sudden disappearance act. The Cowboys need this one, but it won’t be as easy.

The second-year stars shined once again, as Dak Prescott (234 yards passing; 3 TDs) and Ezekiel Elliot (219 total yards; 3 TDs) dominated the 49ers.

Seattle Seahawks 3-2 (-4) @ New York Giants 1-5 (39.5): Seahawks 21-17 Seahawks 24-7
Sunday, 4:25 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; high 70s)

Reasons: This is a battle to see who has the worst offensive line and the Football Gods wouldn’t have it any other way than to make it such that the battle would also feature two of the league’s most feared defensive fronts, which is funny considering both teams rank in the lower third of the league in sacks. Regardless, this could be an ugly game. The Giants finally won their first game last week, and it came with barely any offense and none of their original starting wide receivers. That won’t fly with these Seahawks.

This was the 10-7 defensive battle many people could've imagined when they saw this game on the schedule until Russell Wilson (334 yards passing ; 3 TDs) threw two touchdowns in the final 9:34 of the game to take the win on the road. The Seahawks defense allowed only 177 total yards, but the real fireworks came on the sidelines when Doug Baldwin, frustrated with his offense and the NFL apparently, shoved offensive line coach Tom Cable during an altercation on the sidelines.

Cincinnati Bengals 2-3 (+5.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 4-2 (40.5): Bengals 20-17 Steelers 29-14
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Sunny; high 70s)

Reasons: All of a sudden the dust has cleared, the Steelers love each other again, and they’re coming off a monumental win against the NFL’s best Kansas City Chiefs. However, the Bengals have won two straight after dropping their first three and boast the leagues top overall defense (2nd yards allowed; 2nd points allowed). The Steelers haven’t won consecutive games since Week 2, and the Bengals once woeful offense just dropped 20 on the league’s top scoring defense (Buffalo Bills), so I’m taking a chance on the league’s best overall defense, especially getting nearly a touchdown.

This was a battle of two of the best defenses in the NFL, a staple between these two AFC North teams, but it was the Steelers defense that dominated Sunday, holding the Bengals to 11 first downs and 179 totals yards (3.5 ypp), while forcing two turnovers and sacking Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton four times. Add all of this to the fact the Steelers were 1-6 in the Red Zone and the Bengals got completely dominated. 


 The Los Angeles Chargers were once 0-4, but have won two straight games and look to continue their streak against the Denver Broncos Sunday.

Denver Broncos 3-2 (-1) @ Los Angeles Chargers 2-4 (48.5): Chargers 21-20 Chargers 21-0
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Stub Hub Field, Carson, CA (Weather: Sunny; high 80s)

Reasons: What a difference a few weeks makes. Two weeks ago Denver was 3-1 and looked like world-beaters kicking back on their bye week; Los Angeles was winless and looked as if all hope was lost. Now the Chargers have won two straight and are suddenly 1.5 games behind the Broncos in a division that just became very competitive. Denver remains the better team statistically, by far actually, but there’s nothing like momentum in the NFL, and the Chargers are humming.

I told you the Broncos were in trouble. Lucky for them the entire division is up for grabs after the once 5-0 Chiefs lost two games in four days, one of those to the Oakland Raiders. Only two games in the loss column separate first and last in the AFC West, but the Broncos have no shot if quarterback Trevor Siemian and the Broncos offense (3 TOs) doesn't play better. The Chargers got a punt return touchdown from Travis Benjamin, meaning the Broncos defense only gave up 14 points, and they actually gave up fewer yards (DEN: 251; LAC: 242) than the Chargers, pointing out the Broncos offensive deficiencies even more. 

(Interesting note: In 2017 so far Denver has scored 21.6 ppg and has allowed 19.4 ppg; Los Angeles has scored 19.3 and allowed 21.8. Statistically speaking this game should theoretically end DEN 21.7 – 19.35 LAC)

Atlanta Falcons 3-2 (+3) @ New England Patriots 4-2 (56.5): Patriots 28-27 Patriots 23-7
Sunday, 8:30 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Mostly sunny; low 70s)

Reasons: A rematch of Super Bowl LI, both teams have come into 2017 major disappointments. The Patriots look like a shell of their former team, while the Falcons have dropped two straight games, both to other AFC East opponents, coincidentally, one of which, the Miami Dolphins, is terrible. Did I mention these losses came at home? New England is firing on all cylinders again on offense (1st yards gained; 5th points scored), but is poised to have a record-breaking defense in 2017 - record-breaking as in terrible. The Patriots give up the most yards in the league (441 ypg) and allow the 5th most points (26.5), which should play well into the hands of an offense that gains lots of yards (5th) and gains them in bunches (2nd yards per play) and a team that is 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 games. Regardless, look for that SBLI hangover to linger.

FogGate is in full effect for all of the loser NFL fans that can't quite grasp the Patriots dynasty, especially with the ageless avocado wonder Tom Brady at the helm (21-29 passing for 249 yards and 2 TDs). The Falcons looked as if they were still stunned from there Super Bowl LI loss, and Falcons offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian won't last long with the play calling he's churning out (343 total yards), as Matt Ryan (233 passing yards; 1 TD) has regressed to his pre-MVP Matty Ice-Cold. The Patriots defense can't be considered "back" after the thick fall Atlantic fog made it difficult to throw downfield, but it was certainly a step in the right direction.


Washington Football Team 3-2 (+4.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles 5-1 (49): Eagles 27-21 Eagles 34-24
Monday, 8:30 PM, Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Sunny; mid-70s)

Reasons: The Eagles are about to play their fourth game in 22 days. That seems wild to me. This game is also the second time these two teams have played in the first six weeks of the season. This feels like déjà vu, and considering how badass this defense has become over the past several weeks, not to mention the return of the mighty Fletcher Cox, I imagine things will go pretty much the same as they did Week 1.

The Eagles exploded for 34 points against a solid Washington defense after the oddest start to a game I can recall ever happening. After Washington's first possession, which ended in a field goal, the Eagles started at their own 25-yard line after a touchback, only to be penalized four times in a to go from 1st-and-10 to 1st-and-33 at their own 2-yard line. Philadelphia quickly recovered and Carson Wentz ended up throwing four touchdown passes in a big win for the NFC-leading Eagles, but the key to the game might have been the loss of left tackle Jason Peters, which could have catastrophic effects going forward. 


Week 7 byes: Detroit Lions; Houston Texans


Stay tuned for Week 8: #NFL Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) coming Thursday and Sunday!




 

 
 




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