Good luck at the window this season and enjoy the 2020 NFL season whiles it lasts, because with the ways things are going it won't be long!
Minnesota Vikings 6-8 (+6.5) @ New Orleans Saints 10-4 (52.5): Saints 30-23
Christmas, 4:30 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Drew Brees isn’t exactly the Drew Brees we remember, but neither is the Vikings defense (23rd overall; 25th scoring). At least Brees (6th QBR in 10 games played) can still win games, despite the dip in ypa (7.3 ypa, 18th), and after a tough 32-29 loss to the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs Sunday, that’s exactly what he needs to do on the short week: Win. New Orleans holds the tie breaker over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC South, but that won’t matter if Tampa Bay wins out and New Orleans doesn’t. The Saints were also fighting for the top seed in the NFC and now the Green Bay Packers own that spot with the Seattle Seahawks breathing down the Saints necks. What’s the point of my NFC playoff role call? Things are tight at the top and the 42-year old Brees can’t afford to travel in the early rounds of the playoffs if the Saints want any chance at Super Bowl V. New Orleans 3rd-ranked overall defense (4th against the run) should be able to slow Dalvin Cook (1,484 rushing yards; 5 ypc; 15 TDs) and the spoiler-mode Vikings at home on the short week to maintain their conference position. There’s that damn hook again.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-5 (-7) @ Detroit Lions 5-9 (53.5): Buccaneers 33-23
Saturday, 1:00 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: These two offenses are similar in terms of production of yards in the air and on the ground, but only the Buccaneers seem to turn those yards into points (TB: +4.7 ppg). That’s a function of one of the best defenses in the NFL v. one of the league’s worst, among several other factors ranging from the second level variables to the obvious. The Buccaneers are one sack from being 2nd in the NFL and the Lions give up the 8th-most sacks and will be without starting tackle Tyler Crosby for the third straight week. It’s not looking good for Detroit, because Tampa Bay can clinch a playoff spot with a win, and TB12 can’t afford to lose that grip.
San Francisco 49ers 5-9 (+3) @ Arizona Cardinals 8-6 (49.5): Cardinals 27-23
Saturday, 4:30 PM, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: It’s a Christmas miracle, a home game for both teams! The 49ers should be a one-win team after the decimation they’ve suffered on both sides of the ball throughout the season, but stellar coaching has prevailed and San Francisco finds themselves one of the best overall defenses in the NFL (5th); unfortunately, they’re the break-don’t-bend variety, and despite yielding very few yards on the ground (7th) or in the air (4th), they give up nearly 26 ppg. The Cardinals are one of the more dynamic teams in the league, but have stumbled lately, putting their playoff hopes in jeopardy. I wouldn’t say the 49ers are the team you to be facing in that scenario, per se, but attrition has caught up to the 49ers several layers deep at the league’s most important position and there’s only so much Kyle Shannahan can coach through.
Miami Dolphins 9-5 (-2) @ Las Vegas Raiders 7-7 (47.5): Dolphins 24-23
Saturday, 8:15PM, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: I suppose the best gift Miami residents can receive around the holidays, besides the things that actually matter, would be a deep playoff run for a Dolphins fan base not used to such a thing in over a generation. The Dolphins are opposite of the San Francisco 49ers; they’re the league’s top scoring defense (18.4 ppg) despite being in the bottom half the league overall defensively. The Brian Flores-led Dolphins should be good defensively, but it’s the offense that has surprised some, ranking just beyond the Raiders, who rank just out of the top-10 (26.9 ppg). It also helps the Dolphins that the Raiders are one of the worst defenses in the league, plagued by their own attrition, and could have a tough time facing the dynamic rookie Tua Tagovailoa. The bottom line is the Dolphins need the win Saturday or this incredible run they’ve been on in 2020 could come to a crashing halt, while the Raiders season crashed weeks ago.
Atlanta Falcons 4-10 (+12.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs 13-1 (53.5): Chiefs 33-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Weather: Breezy; low 50s)
Keys: The only thing the Chiefs are dealing with is the loss of rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire and a questionable Tyreek Hill, but it’s always a question of whether Hill will pop off and assault his family, so it’s really just about the loss of their star rookie RB, although the Chiefs landed a dysfunctional Le’Veon Bell for pennies on the dollar, so all is well for a loaded Kansas City team with no excuse not to run away with Super Bowl LV. The only question here is whether or not the Falcons cover and I say yes, based simply on the fact the bored Chiefs haven’t covered the spread in six straight weeks (0-5-1) and the Falcons are explosive enough on offense to lose by fewer than four FGs.
Cleveland Browns 10-4 (-10) @ *New York Jets 1-13 (47): Browns 27-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; low 30s)
Keys: The Browns did the group thing and now they’re the latest “victim” of the ‘rona, losing several players in the 11th hour before their game v. New York. The Jets are coming off their first win of the season, and had recently lost two of the previous four games by a possession in games they could’ve also won, so ten points seems too much for a team that just lost several key players overnight with a -0.4 ppg point differential against a team at home who is 5-3 ATS since starting the season 0-7 ATS. Let that sink in: The Browns are 10-4 and have a -0.4 ppg point differential. For comparison sake the 4-10 Atlanta Falcons have a +0.2 ppg point differential. Are you hitching your wagon to any part of the Falcons? I didn’t think so, and before you point to competition lest you forget the NFC South has 29 total wins; the AFC North, home of the previously undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers, has 33 wins. So we’re talking about two apples in different packaging essentially, which basically means don’t give the 10 points, especially in this situation.
Indianapolis Colts 10-4 *(+3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 11-3 (46): Colts 24-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: Partly sunny; low 40s)
Keys: Just three weeks ago the Steelers were undefeated and the Colts were in danger of being left out in the playoff cold. As of today the teams are a game apart and could be tied by Sunday afternoon, because the Colts defense is on the level with the Steelers, while the Steelers offense has been spiraling out of control without a consistent run game. Since the Colts top-ranked run defense won’t be working very hard they’ll focus on getting to Ben Roethlisberger and shutting down the pass, which isn’t their strongest attribute defensively. The Steelers also allow the fewest sacks in the league (12), but the Colts are right behind them (2nd with 16 sacks allowed), which is the key to the game considering the Steelers sack more QBs than any team in the NFL (t-1st because TB played Saturday). We primarily give advice here at PFM, and the advice is simple: Run to the window to take the points because these teams are trending in opposite directions and the Steelers are reeling.
Chicago Bears 7-7 (-3.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 1-13 (47.5): Bears 24-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: Sunny; low 60s)
Keys: The Bears could actually make the playoffs after having two seasons, one where they seemed destined (Weeks 1-6: 5-1) and one where they didn’t (Weeks 7-15: 2-6), and the Jaguars are playing for the rights to Trevor Lawrence, so both teams win if Chicago does. Now that I typed Jaguar I can’t help but think of Kristen Wiig’s terrible leopard character in WW84 or the absence of the actual Wonder Woman from the movie, but I digress. I digress from this game preview, too.
New York Giants 5-9 (+9.5) @ *Baltimore Ravens 9-5 (45): Ravens 27-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: Sunny; low 40s)
Keys: Two of better defenses in the league square off Sunday, but only one of these teams possesses an equally-stellar offense and it’s certainly not the Giants (17.4 ppg). New York ranks 6th against the run, but they haven’t faced the type of RPO QB Lamar Jackson is, so they might struggle to contain the league’s most dynamic offensive player. The Giants will also struggle to score anything against Baltimore, so the Ravens should have no trouble winning and might not have any trouble covering, because the only good team the Giants beat during their mini-win streak was a Seattle Seahawks team they caught sleeping at home.
*Cincinnati Bengals 3-10-1 (+8.5) @ Houston Texans 4-10 (45): Texans 27-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Bengals have spent the last month defeating an 11-2 Pittsburgh Steelers team and bringing two potential playoff teams to the brink (MIA; NYG), all without Joe Burrow. The Texans are on a three-game losing streak, including two losses to the same team in three weeks (IND), and find themselves on the level with one of the laughingstocks of the league. Don’t look at me, Cincinnati, I was calling you the best two-win team all season. If the Texans don’t figure it out soon we might be watching one of the great potential QB careers go to waste in front of our very eyes.
Denver Broncos 5-9 (+2.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers 5-9 (50): Chargers 27-24
Sunday, 4:05 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: This is the second game review in a row with zero playoff implications, which is sad, because both of these team had tons of potential entering 2020. Well, I guess a lot of us did. The one bright spot for both teams is they seem to have found their respective future QBs, and attrition comes and goes, although it seems to come to the Chargers more often then anyone, so we’ll see what 2021 brings, and by last check it was a new mutated form of covid, so maybe 2021 brings more of the same. For us and them. The spread is a function of these teams similar dysfunction, while the high O/U reflects the absence of each team’s best defender (LAC: Bosa; DEN: Chubb). Look for rookie QB Justin Herbert to take advantage and break some rookie records.
Carolina Panthers 4-10 (+3) @ Washington Football Team 6-8 (44.5): Panthers 23-21
Sunday, 4:05 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather: Sunny; low 40s)
Keys: This was almost the third straight game preview with zero playoff implication, but alas, the Washington Football Team still knocks at the door. It’s Dwayne Haskins and a grip of his buddies looking for a night cap after a late night at the strip club. Do you let them in? What a clown this Haskins kid is, but we already knew that. When your father has to get in front of everything and cut off the media before draft day we all knew there was a lot more to the latest Ohio State QB to take advantage of the dozens of All-American talent around him and a season to trick the masses then we were led to believe. Before you defend him this was his second covid violation and he’s supposed to be their future franchise QB. As for this game, the Football Team is in control of their own destiny, which isn’t a great look for them, and the Panthers would love to show their old coach what they’ve been up to. Look for Washington to fumble the ball right when holding on to it matters most
Philadelphia Eagles 4-9-1 (-1) @ Dallas Cowboys 5-9 (48.5): Eagles 27-24
Sunday, 4:25 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Only the NFC East could feature a game at the end of the year where both team had horrible records, yet were somehow still relevant. Both of these terrible teams could actually win the NFC East if they won out and certain things fell into place. The Eagles have the worst record, but are only two games out of a first-place tie with Washington, who won their first game Week 1. Guess who plays Week 17? What a whirlwind. The fact that the Eagles could actually win the NFC East with a 6-9-1 is one of the funniest things to come out of 2020, but a lot has to happen in the meantime, including the entire division losing their last two games and the Eagles winning theirs. I’m all in on the Eagles and Jalen Hurts, because this is exactly what would happen to the Eagles – they’d fall flat with the team everyone expected them to win with and make a miraculous run with a back up QB no one believed in with Carson Wentz on the bench for whatever reason. Sound familiar?
Los Angeles Rams 9-5 (+2) @ Seattle Seahawks 10-4 (46.5): Seahawks 24-23
Sunday, 4:25 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: Clearing; high 40s)
Keys: Buckle up, it’s go time. Several algorithms have the win margin set within 0.5 % meaning this is expected to be one of the closest games in 2020, hence the two-point spread in favor of Seattle, which considering Seattle’s home-field advantage (~2.5 points for an empty CenturyLink), about sums it up. One of the NFL’s best offenses takes on arguably the NFL’s best defense and it just so happens the Seahawks defense and Rams offense are equally mediocre. So the question here is can the Rams score just enough points to keep pace with a Seahawks team that will struggle a little to score their usual 29.5 ppg on Aaron Donald and the Rams defense. Both defenses stop the run, which means these teams will air it out Sunday, but the Rams have a stellar pass defense (1st 192 ypg), too, anchored by one of the deadliest defensive lines in the league (t-4th sacks). This game comes down to team leaders and I have my money on Russell Wilson at home with a one-game advantage over Aaron Donald on the road at a one-game disadvantage. That might seem dumb with a hobbled Seattle offensive line that gives up the 7th-most sacks, but it’s really more about Jared Goff then Donald and I think you know exactly what I mean.
Tennessee Titans 10-4 *(+4.5) @ Green Bay Packers 11-3 (55.5): Packers 33-30
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Snow flurries; low 30s)
Keys: The Titans have the 28th-ranked pass defense and the Packers have the 11th-ranked run defense, so considering the game is at The Frozen Tundra with potential snow, all signs would seem to point to the Packers, hence the 4.5-point spread, but these Titans are tied with the Kansas City Chiefs as the top scoring offense in the NFL (31.3 ppg) and are only second to the Chiefs in overall offense (399.4 ypg). The Titans are also 4-1 and averaging 37.4 ppg since their Week 10 home blowout loss to their division rival Indianapolis Colts, meaning the Packers 8th-ranked overall defense could be in for a long game themselves. This is a potential Super Bowl LV match up, and it’s not like Nashville is in the deep south (re: weather), so I don’t like Packers giving almost five points, even if it makes a lot of sense.
Buffalo Bills 11-3 (-4.5) @ New England Patriots 6-8 (45.5): Bills 27-20
Monday, 8:15 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Light wind; low 30s)
Keys: It’s the Buffalo Bills time, and although the Patriots defense, despite the opt-outs, remained one of the better in the NFL in 2020, the Bills are simply too dynamic and score too much for these offensively (no pun intended) inept Patriots. Even if the Patriots shut down Stephon Diggs (111 REC; 1,314 REC YDs), Diggs has only scored five TDs, which is worth exactly 0.9 points from what the Bills average every game (29.1 ppg 5th). Bills Mafia might’ve been offended at the 4.5-point spread, but the Patriots are home, familiar with their opponent and still possess one of the best cover secondaries in the NFL, which has the potential to delete Diggs. The Patriots also don’t lose three games in a row, but those are the old Patriots. The Bills should win, yet the spread makes sense, so I’m going to go with two trends: Buffalo is 6-0 in their last six games ATS and have gone over on every game set under 46 points this season.
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