Good luck at the window this season and enjoy the 2020 NFL season whiles it lasts, because with the ways things are going it won't be long!
Houston
Texans 3-7
(-3)
@ Detroit Lions 4-6
(51.5):
Texans 30-24 Texans 41-25
Thanksgiving, 12:30 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Texans are riding high after beating the New England Patriots Sunday while the Lions just suffered one of the only shut-outs, if not the only, so far in 2020 to the Carolina Panthers, to boot. With all due respect to the Panthers, they shouldn’t be shutting anyone out, especially these Lions. Detroit also comes into Thanksgiving limping on defense, so look for Deshuan Watson to put on another incredible show against a banged up defense that was awful in the first place.
Deshaun Watson threw four TD passes, two to Will Fuller V, who also accounted for more than half (171 receiving yards) of Watson's 318 passing yards. Throw in JJ Watt's incredible pick-six and we have another blowout for the perennial Thanksgiving host.
Washington
Football Team 3-7
(+3)
@ Dallas Cowboys
3-7
(46):
Cowboys
24-23 Football Team 41-16
Thanksgiving, 4:30 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Cowboys actually won Sunday on the late Dalton-to-Dalton go-ahead TD pass, while the Football Team was the recipient of an injured Joe Burrow after dropping the previous two games to awful teams. You get the point. In fact, the last time Washington won in earnest it was a dismantling of these Cowboys (25-3 in Week 7). Look for Dallas to get revenge in front of the home crowd on Thanksgiving while riding the momentum of Sunday’s improbable win over the Minnesota Vikings.
Listening to Jerry Jones is like listening to Donald Trump. In other words, what's the point? This week he threw his own emergency QB under the bus by claiming the Cowboys were recently at the same disadvantage as the Denver Broncos, who literally didn't have a QB Sunday. I'd talk about Washington's decisive Thanksgiving win over Dallas, but that city gets too much press as it is.
Las
Vegas Raiders 6-4
(-3)
@ Atlanta Falcons 3-7
(54):
Raiders
30-28 Raiders 43-6
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Raiders struggle to defend the pass (28th), which the Falcons have excelled at for years on offense (3rd). The Raiders can run the ball as well as anyone (7th), but the Falcons actually defend the run well (9th) and the Raiders are banged up at RB. In other words, this is a great chance for the Falcons to cover here, or even win, but the Raiders can’t afford to make too many more mistakes going forward or it’s on to 2021 for Las Vegas, no pun intended.
Good thing Chucky has a life long movie deal or else Mark Davis might be walking out of the theater on this slasher. I had the Falcons covering for all the aforementioned reasons, but winning by 37? It's time to move back to Oakland.
Los
Angeles Chargers 3-7
(+5.5)
@ Buffalo Bills 7-3
(52.5):
Bills
28-27 Bills 27-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: Sunny; low 50s)
Keys: These teams couldn’t be more opposite. Buffalo is cold and in the northeast; Los Angeles is warm and in the southwest. Buffalo is 7-3 with a +0.7 ppg point differential; Los Angeles is 3-7 with a -1.3 ppg point differential. The Bills score almost exactly what the Chargers give up (BUF: 27.2 ppg; LAC: allow 27.3 ppg) and vice versa (LAC: 26.0 ppg; BUF: allows 26.5 ppg). The Bills are leading their division; the Chargers are definitely not. One thing they have in common is young, talented QBs, although Josh Allen is certainly more proven than Justin Herbert. They also have talent on both sides of the ball and have vastly underachieved on defense, although it’s clearly hurt the Chargers more than the Bills. Buffalo doesn’t lose to bad teams and they need to stay ahead of the Miami Dolphins, but 5.5 points is steep with Joey Bosa back on the other side of Melvin Ingram.
Josh Allen threw a TD pass, didn't throw the other TD pass and ran for a TD in a whooping of the Chargers disguised as a 10-point game.
New
York Giants 3-7
(-6)
v. Cincinnati Bengals 2-7-1
(43.5):
Giants
23-20 Giants 19-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Partly Sunny; low 50s)
Keys: Try to read this without laughing: The Giants are in the playoff hunt. The Bengals were actually in the hunt for their second number one draft in a row before Joe Burrow was lost for the season. So it’s no wonder the Giants are getting six points on the road against the Bengals. Wait a minute, it’s a huge wonder. The Giants are awful and Joe Burrow doesn’t move any needles six points. I don’t care if New York is 3-3 in their last six games and have only lost those three games by an average of 2 ppg, the only thing they do well is defend the run (6th), so a few wins in the putrid NFC East shouldn’t impress anyone, especially when two of those last three losses also came via NFC East teams, too. I’m not saying Brandon Allen is going to win, I’m just saying I doubt these Giants cover six points.
The New York Giants are in first place with four wins and without Saquon Barkley. What does it all mean? The Iggles haven't stopped their Super Bowl parade yet.
Tennessee
Titans 7-3 *(+3)
@ Indianapolis Colts 7-3
(51.5):
Titans
26-23 Titans 45-26
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Much like the Indianapolis Colts couldn’t afford to lose to these Titans Week 10 after losing to Baltimore the week before if they wanted to keep pace in the AFC South, these Titans now can’t afford to lose to the Colts or risk losing the tie-breaker in the event of a tie five weeks from now. The Titans also play three more tough games, including Sunday, and more three divisional games, including Sunday. Sometimes all the analysis in the world doesn’t change desperation, and while Colts stout run defense might’ve kept Derrick Henry out of the end zone last time, they didn’t exactly keep him in check (103 rushing yards).
Hopefully you threw whatever chunk you had on one of the most obvious game outcomes of the season. The Colts defense is suddenly porous, giving up 76 points the past two games, while surrendering 178 rushing yards and three TDs to Derrick Henry (6.4 ypc) Sunday. The Titans literally had no other choice but to win, and besides, it's crunch time for Philip Rivers. Lest we forget he's manning the station in The Land of Mother, and we all saw that movie in San Diego.
Carolina
Panthers 4-7
(+3.5)
@ Minnesota Vikings 4-6
(51):
Vikings
27-23 Vikings 28-27
Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: I’m not really sure what to expect out of either of these teams at this point. The Vikings have arguably the three best skill players at their respective positions (Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook & Justin Jefferson), a solid offensive line and a borderline good QB, yet they’re 4-6. Not just because of a bad defense, either, but more so because all that talent can’t muster more than 26.4 ppg, which in today’s NFL is only good for 14th, or middle-of-the-pack. The Panthers, on the other hand, should have been left for dead months ago, yet can pop up in Week 11 and shut out the Detroit Lions. There are no parties to be spoiled here, anyway, so who cares?
Turns out shutting out the Detroit Lions isn't all that impressive, but this game was. Minnesota took an early first half lead just to watch it evaporate in the second half. The Vikings clawed their way out of a 21-10 deficit and scored the go-ahead TD with 46 seconds remaining and the team with the most healthy talent and worst corresponding record made it out alive, for whatever that's worth.
Arizona
Cardinals 6-4
*(-2.5)
@
New England Patriots 4-6
(49.5):
Cardinals
24-21 Patriots 20-17
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Weather: Sunny; high 40s)
Keys: It wasn’t too long ago Cam Newton was going to revolutionize the NFL because no one had ever seen someone so big and so athletic at the same time. Isn’t it ironic that ten years later we’re saying the same thing about Kyler Murray, except it’s because we’ve never seen someone so small and athletic at the same time. We have no clue what the hell we’re talking about. These are two are the best rushing offenses in the NFL, while both defenses rank in the lower third of the NFL defending the run. Considering Bill Belichick and some of the league’s best pass defenders will be all over DeAndre Hopkins it’s safe to say we’re in for a quick, run-heavy game. Considering the weather won’t be too cold, and the Cardinals explosive ways, I’d say we’re in for a Cardinals cover and a recover from last week.
I knew Kyler Murray (171 passing yards; 1 INT; 5 rush attempts) was still hurt, but I didn't think this much. With Murray hobbled the Cardinals were once again one-dimensional, which doesn't work with one of the best cover secondaries in the NFL. Stephon Gillmore covered Deandre Hopkins all day, sometimes a little too closely, and essentially helped shut down the usually-dynamic Arizona offense. This is also only the second game the Cardinals have lost since drafting Murray when he has rushed for more than 30 yards (31 rushing yards). The Patriots didn't have to score much, which is on brand for 2020, but the defense got it down with a little help from their little friend, or more accurately put, little opponent.
Miami
Dolphins 6-4
(-7)
@ New York Jets 0-10
(44.5):
Dolphins
27-17 Dolphins 20-3
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Sunny; high 50s)
Keys: The offensively-woeful Jets have exploded for 27.5 ppg their past two games, and nearly beat the New England Patriots three weeks ago. The Dolphins were on a tear trying to catch the Buffalo Bills, but stumbled against the Denver Broncos last week after the Broncos chased Tua Tagovailoa off the field, literally. Look for one of the league’s best scoring defenses (4th) to get the Dolphins back on track by stifling Joe Flacco and the league’s worst scoring and total offense, because the Jets are incapable of revenge.
Predictable outcome.
Cleveland
Browns 7-3
(-6.5)
@ Jacksonville Jaguars 1-9
(50):
Browns
24-17 Browns 27-25
Sunday, 1:00 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: 30% storms; high 70s)
Keys: Whoever is missing on defense for the Browns is more than made up for by the offensive players missing Sunday for Jacksonville. It might rain Sunday in Jacksonville, too, which would be Cleveland’s fourth straight game in the rain. Where is Las Vegas getting an O/U of 50 points from? The bottom line is Cleveland is capable of losing any game at any time, but these Jaguars are one of the league’s worst teams, and the Browns should be able to run them out of their own building. It’s so fitting that in one of the few places in the country where they value football over human life they're forced to watch one of the worst teams in the NFL. That’s a shame.
The Jaguars were a failed two-point conversion from sending this game to OT, but luckily for the Browns the entire Ravens team has covid and have suddenly gone from likely Super Bowl contenders to third place in a four-team division with an uncertain future considering their coaches refuse to follow the covid rules. Oh yeah, we were talking about the Browns. Things have been weird since their decoy OBJ was injured for the season. End review.
New
Orleans Saints 8-2
(-6)
@ Denver Broncos 4-6
(43.5):
Saints
24-17 Saints 31-3
Sunday, 4:05 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Sunny; mid-40s)
Keys: The Broncos had given up 36 ppg over their previous four games before holding the Miami Dolphins to 13 points last week, but before you think the Broncos have found their defensive ways again, or that they’ll automatically yield 36+ to the Saints (6th 29.5 ppg), think again. It’ll be somewhere in between, because New Orleans will be trotting out Taysom Hill with a week’s worth of starter tape out on him, but the Saints line is better than Miami’s, and Hill is at least as mobile as Tua Tagovailoa if you consider his experience. The Saints defense should stifle the Broncos, while their offense will score just enough to cover.
After this game preview was published the Broncos announced they'd be playing Wild Cat all day Sunday because the literally had no QBs available because of covid. All four, including the practice squad QB. I didn't change the preview because it didn't affect my winner, the spread or the under. All it does for the review is offer a simple, "What did you expect?"
San
Francisco 49ers 4-6
(+6.5)
@ Los Angeles Rams 7-3
(48):
Rams
27-20 49ers 23-20
Sunday, 4:05 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Rams are home and seeking revenge against a hobbling 49ers team. That’s a bad recipe and one not really worth analyzing. Besides, I don’t want to hurt my greater Sacramento family member’s feelings.
The 49ers scored six unanswered points on the leg of Robbie Gould at the 3:11 and 0:00 mark to steal the victory from the Rams, who were beginning to be taken seriously. Figures.
Kansas
City Chiefs 9-1
*(-3.5)
@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-4
(56):
Chiefs
31-27 Chiefs 27-24
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Partly Sunny; low 80s)
Keys: What appears as a great match up on paper is really what should be the Chiefs covering the 3.5 points with ease. The Buccaneers are not as good at beating up teams that excel at all three phases of the game and the Chiefs more than qualify. With one of the highest point differentials in the NFL (11.3 ppg) and arguably the league’s best kicker to complement a good pass defense and an offensive line that gives up the 4th-fewest sacks, it’s hard to find a way to justify Tampa Bay covering.
Serial domestic abuser Tyreek Hill was on pace for 800 receiving yards as the 1st quarter came to a close, which is more yards than most WRs have all season, while the Chiefs took a commanding 17-0 1Q lead. The Buccaneers rebounded, but it was too late and too much to overcome 462 passing yards and four TDs from Patrick Mahomes. Tom Brady threw two more INTs, which set the stage for their latest loss, as Tampa Bay is now faced with the realistic possibility of missing the playoffs. <Insert Michael Jackson popcorn GIF>
Green
Bay Packers 7-3
(-8.5)
@ Chicago Bears 5-5
(45):
Packers
30-20 Packers 41-25
Sunday, 8:20 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Windy; high 30s)
Keys: If I’m the Packers I’m thinking one thing: Keep Kahlil Mack away from Aaron Rodgers. That’s it. Game plan. Besides that the Packers well-rounded offense (3rd scoring offense; 7th total offense) should score enough points to cover against a Bears team going back to Mitch(ell) Trubisky. Instead of jinxing my choice to start Rodgers over Deshaun Watson in a critical fantasy football week, I’ll just leave it there.
This game had huge fantasy football implications for your boy, but you don't care about that.
Seattle
Seahawks
7-3
*(-5)
@ Philadelphia Eagles 3-6-1
(50):
Seahawks
30-24 Seahawks 23-17
Monday, 8:15 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: 40% rain; high 40s)
Keys: These teams combine to average 53.8 ppg (SEA: 31.8 ppg; PHI: 22 ppg) and allow 54.1 ppg (SEA: 28.7 ppg; PHI: 25.4 ppg), which is not only bizarre, but cause to take the over. That’s about the only interesting thing about this game, besides the fact that despite being 3.5 games apart in the NFC conference standings and the Eagles being three games under .500, both teams are fighting for their respective divisions and could even face each other in the playoffs. What a year. The Eagles (3rd sacks) could easily get to Russell Wilson, but one of the only offensive lines that allows more sacks than the Seahawks are the Eagles (32nd).
My family is from Philadelphia and things have got so bad lately they're celebrating covers. Not the +5 opening line, of course, but the line the public bet all the way down to +6.5. Like I said in the New York Giants review, the Eagles haven't finished their Super Bowl parade yet. Remember that book Doug Pederson wrote?
Baltimore
Ravens 6-4
(+4)
@ *Pittsburgh Steelers 10-0
(45):
23-17 Steelers 19-14
Tuesday, 8:00 PM Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA (Weather: 50% snow; low 30s)
Keys: Are you ready for some footbaaaaall?!?! A...Tuesday night party? Again??? Who said the Steelers were getting the short end of the stick this season because of covid? Now they might get a Ravens team led by RGIII scrambling to fill other roster spots with practice squad players, including the back-up QB position. Not to mention the weather went from Sunny and 50ยบ (Sunday afternoon) to snowing (Tuesday evening). So the real question is, how much do the Steelers win by and do we put an asterisk next to their team if they go undefeated this season?
Hats off to the Ravens, who gave the undefeated Steelers a run for their money with a limited roster that included - wait for it - a hobbled RGIII. Notice I didn't even change the day and time of the game? That's because it was Tuesday night while searching for the game I found out it was delayed again. Both teams struggled with the circumstances, as did we trying to watch football at 3:40 on a Wednesday afternoon. What a time to try and stay alive.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.