Good luck at the window this season and enjoy the 2020 NFL season whiles it lasts, because with the ways things are going it won't be long!
New England Patriots 6-6 (+5.5) @ Los Angeles Rams 8-4 (44.5): Rams 24-23
Thursday, 8:20 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Patriots haven’t moved an inch since their 45-0 destruction of the Rams roommates, the Los Angeles Chargers, and have now won four of their past five games. Bill Belichick is beginning to make the AFC nervous and I love it. The PFM TNF track record is well-documented, more so than my poor New England Patriots predictions track record, so I’m going to leave this game at this: The Patriots are one of the best running teams in the NFL and the Rams defend the run as well as anyone. Considering neither offense is explosive, or even interesting for that matter, and both teams possess talented secondaries, it’s looking like a defensive battle on the short week as the Rams try to take control of the NFC West and the Patriots try a miraculous run for the AFC’s 7th spot. Now that I’ve pointed to a defensive battle it’ll probably be a barn-burner. Did I mention both kickers are questionable? That’s almost funny, but could come into play. The Patriots cover either way, because the way New England has been playing, and the way they’ve always played in December under Belichick for 20 years, 5.5 points is a gimme.
Kansas City Chiefs 11-1 (-7.5) @ *Miami Dolphins 8-4 (50.5): Chiefs 27-24
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: Mostly Sunny; high 70s)
Keys: The Chiefs have a chance to take over the top seed in the AFC if the Pittsburgh Steelers trip up again, which is very plausible (PITvBUF on SNF). The Dolphins are no slouches themselves, hyped on the prospect of rookie Tua Tagovailoa and a solid defense, and actually have equal stake in the aforementioned PITvBUF game Sunday night. If the Bills lose the Dolphins would tie them for the AFC East lead. I can’t remember the last time both the Dolphins and Bills were both still relevant Week 14. In other words, there’s a lot at stake for these two teams Sunday. Everyone knows about the Chiefs, but they may not know the Dolphins are a bend-don’t-break defense (2nd scoring defense – 17.7 ppg; 16th overall), and they also might conveniently forget the Chiefs have only won their last four games, against marginal competition I might add, by 3.5 ppg. In other words, the Chiefs may rack up 500 total yards, but don’t be surprised if they don’t score enough to cover.
Dallas Cowboys 3-9 (-3.5) v. Cincinnati Bengals 2-9-1 (42.5): Bengals 21-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Partly cloudy; low 40s)
Keys: These are the games that make me reconsider the full game slate analysis on this website. Wouldn’t it just be easier to pick 5-10 games every week and concentrate on those rather than spending time researching these two teams and this game to come up with a quality prediction? The biggest story line here is Andy Dalton returning to Cincinnati. Cool. The Bengals have lost four straight games, but have only allowed 10.8 ppg in those games, which doesn’t bode well for a Dallas offense that has only averaged 16.5 ppg in their latest two-game losing streak. Let’s check back in 2-3 years on these teams and see what we have then.
Tennessee Titans 8-4 (-7.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 1-11 (52): Titans 30-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL (Weather: Cloudy; high 70s)
Keys: The Jaguars have lost four of their last five games since their bye week (Week 8) by fewer than 3 ppg, including games against division leaders (GB; CLE). I’m not sure if that means anything for Sunday’s game, but it might make you think twice before running to the window for the Titans, because Tennessee has been in this position most of the season, yet have struggled to put the Indianapolis Colts behind them. The Titans offense and special teams have been on fire since their OT win at Baltimore Week 11 (36.7 ppg), but the defense has given up almost as many points (30.3 ppg) in that stretch, which makes me question the Titans covering 7.5 points. There’s not much question about the win, as the jaguars have the 3rd-worst run defense in the NFL, which could be a big problem if AJ Brown is a go Sunday.
Arizona Cardinals 6-6 (-2.5) @ *New York Giants 5-7 (45): Giants 23-21
Sunday, 1:00 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: Clearing; high 50s)
Keys: It’s hard to believe just a month ago the Giants were a laughing stock and the Cardinals were serious NFC contenders. Enter Kyler Murray’s bum shoulder and a surprisingly good Giants defense and suddenly these two teams could be tied with 6-7 records after Sunday. They say the NFL stands for Not For Long, and if Murray becomes one-dimensional or Murray fan’s worst fears are realized – he’s tiny and can’t take the punishment long term – he’ll be the latest victim of that. The Giants just keep winning and their defense keeps performing, even against great offenses on the road, which means until Murray is 100% and the Cardinals offense is back to normal, it’s even hard to take the Cardinals on the money line, let alone ATS.
Houston Texans 4-8 (-1.5) @ Chicago Bears 5-7 (45.5): Texans 27-23
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Soldier Field, Chicago, IL (Weather: Partly Sunny; high 30s)
Keys: The Texans started the season 1-5 and the Bears started the season 5-1 and that’s really all you have to know about this game between two teams whose seasons are already over. If Allen Robinson III and Kahlil Mack don’t go, or even one of them doesn’t go for that matter, it could be lights out for the Bears, because they’d have to rely solely on David Montgomery without Robinson, and the Texans offense has averaged 29.3 ppg in their three games since the biblical rains they played through in Week 10 at Cleveland, meaning Chicago needs Mack.
Denver Broncos 4-8 (+3.5) @ Carolina Panthers 4-8 (46.5): Panthers 24-20
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC (Weather: Sunny; high 60s)
Keys: Yet another inter-conference game between two teams whose season is already over. Tough break for two teams that lost their best players for the season pretty early on. Such is life in the Not For Long.
Minnesota Vikings 6-6 (+6.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-5 *(52.5): Buccaneers 35-27
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL (Weather: Sunny; high 70s)
Keys: If the Buccaneers lose Sunday they’d not only be tied with the Vikings record-wise, which would be ridiculous enough considering how their seasons started, but they’d also lose any potential tie-breaker to Minnesota should it come down to that. The sail has ripped off the ship and flown into Tampa Bay, coincidentally, and hilariously, upon the arrival of Antonio Brown, and if Tom Brady doesn’t right said ship at home following the bye they could miss the playoffs and then it really hits the fan. All this is basically to say the Buccaneers can’t afford to lose, and they likely wouldn’t anyway. Tampa Bay defends the run better than any other team in the league, the Vikings bread and butter, and can put a little more pressure on the Vikings offensive line than they can handle. Minnesota’s defense is also terrible, which the desperate Brady & Co. should be able to exploit. The question here, though, is can the Buccaneers cover, and is the game going over? Yes.
Indianapolis Colts 8-4 (-3) @ Las Vegas Raiders 7-5 (51): Colts 27-23
Sunday, 4:05PM, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: These teams have similar offenses in terms of production and strategy, but couldn’t be more different defensively. The Colts won’t be sacking Derrick Carr much (OAK 11th sacks allowed), but their pass (4th QBR; 8th pypc) and run (4th ypc; 7th rypg) defenses are some of the best in the NFL, and Raiders star RB Josh Jacobs is questionable to begin with. The Colts also have the 5th highest TO ratio (+7), while the Raiders have fumbled more than any team in the NFL besides the Dallas Cowboys. The Raiders may be more desperate, but the Colts are trying to stay atop the AFC South with the Tennessee Titans.
New York Jets 0-12 (+13.5) @ Seattle Seahawks 8-4 (47): Seahawks 35-20
Sunday, 4:05 PM, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA (Weather: 50% rain; mid-40s)
Keys: The Jets have certainly proved they can hang with other teams in the NFL, but this ain’t the Moon Tower or the malt shop (for my older readers). The Seahawks laid an egg at home last week in a crucial divisional race, and their division competition just roasted the New England Patriots over an open fire, so there’s no need to worry about Seattle overlooking the other team from New York no matter how much worse the Jets are. Those Jet are, however, 4-2 ATS in their last six games after starting the season 0-6 ATS, while the Seahawks are 2-4 ATS in the same stretch. That’s an interesting tidbit when the spread is nearly two TDs, which would be a stretch in any game not involving peak Kansas City Chiefs. Adam Gase is just the type of guy to confuse Woody Johnson by covering on the road against the playoff-bound Seahawks. What’s next, he’ll pass on Trevor Lawrence because Sam Darnold has worked out so well? Just in case Johnson forgets, let me roll out the Jets 2020 rankings: 19th (TO ratio, their best ranking); 26th (sacks allowed); 29th (penalties & penalty yards); 29th (total offense); 30th (scoring offense); 31st (3rd down conversion); 32nd (scoring offense); 32nd (total offense). Yet, Adam Gase still has a job. #RooneyRule
Atlanta Falcons 4-8 (-2.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers 3-9 (49.5): Falcons 28-24
Sunday, 4:25 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The game that exemplifies the need for coaching more than any game this week, no two teams in the league combine for more talent and fewer wins. This game features former MVPs, sack leaders, multiple All-Pro selections, myriad top-10 draft picks, the likely OROY, and four of the best WRs in the NFL, although Julio Jones is out Sunday. Yet, these teams are already on to 2021 and are currently the worst teams in their respective divisions. The common denominator? Coaching. Dan Quinn was the defensive coordinator for the Seattle Seahawks at a time when they were so stacked with talent I could’ve been the DC and had similar results, but the Falcons decided his limited experience could get a talent-less Falcons defense to compliment their explosive offense. The Chargers, probably thinking they were doing the right thing, simply whiffed on a coach without the necessary experience to be a head coach (yet), much like the Falcons with Quinn. So what does that say about this game? Who cares? In case you do, I offer this: The Falcons were a Julio Jones drop in the end zone from potentially beating the New Orleans Saints Week 13, which would have made them 4-1 in their last five games, including a 43-6 dismantling of a decent Las Vegas Raiders team. That means the Falcons are technically “hot”, which the Chargers are anything but as Lynn sits on the “hot” seat. The year, and these two teams, cannot be trusted to do what we expect, but this recency bias, and the fact this road game is still in a dome, is enough to sway me towards the Falcons, with or without Julio Jones.
New Orleans Saints 10-2 (-6.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles 3-8-1 (43): Saints 27-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Lincoln Financial Stadium, Philadelphia, PA (Weather: Mostly Sunny; high 50s)
Keys: The Eagles have benched Carson Wentz, inserting rookie Jalen Hurts for a “spark”. Usually when there’s danger of an explosion the last thing you want is a spark, but this is Doug Pederson of the New York Best Selling book “Fearless”, which means he’s not afraid of getting fired at the end of the year. The Saints defense has flown under my radar all season, probably because of history, but these dudes are for real. New Orleans allows the 2nd-fewest yards and the 4th-fewest points, and is ranked 4th in sacks and 11th in takeaways. The Eagles have been reduced to a team that only sacks the QB (3rd), which doesn’t play in to the Saints hands (10th sacks allowed). Did I mention the Eagles have the 3rd-worst TO ratio (-11)? Unless Taysom Hill implodes, this is a wrap.
Green Bay Packers 9-3 *(-7.5) @ Detroit Lions 5-7 (55): Packers 40-24
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Ford Field, Detroit, MI (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Aaron Rodgers loves the faux turf and the Lions don’t like winning so that about sums up this game. Rodgers is on pace to throw 51 TDs and only 5 INTs, which at a 10:1 TD:INT ratio puts Rodgers’ potential 50+ TD pass campaign way ahead of any of the other three QBs to throw 50 TD passes in a season (Peyton Manning, 2013: 55 TDs & 10 INTs; Tom Brady, 2007: 50 TDs & 8 INTs; Patrick Mahomes, 2018: 50 TDs & 12 INTs). Matthew Stafford once threw 41 TDs (10th all-time), but no one cared.
Washington Football Team 5-7 (+3) @ San Francisco 49ers 5-7 (43.5): 49ers 24-20
Sunday, 4:25 PM, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Imagine being the nomadic 49ers? You’re better looking, live in a cooler place, are way more stable, yet you’re homeless because your parents think more logically, and your season is over despite playing a team with the same 5-7 record who’s inexplicably tied for their division lead. Something tells me the 49ers are going to take it out on an Antonio Gibson-less Football Team that had a hard enough time scoring with their “star” RB. With two mediocre-to-terrible offenses missing key players facing two decent-to-good defenses, this O/U seems right on point. One of the only story lines here is Alex Smith coming back to the place that drafted him in the first round, way ahead of Aaron Rodgers all those years ago, before he moved to the place where he almost died. Wait, the game is in Arizona. I give up.
Pittsburgh Steelers 11-1 (+2) @ Buffalo Bills 9-3 (48): Bills 24-21
Sunday, 8:20 PM, New Era Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Weather: Cloudy; low 30s)
Keys: One of the two games of the week, the Bills find themselves in rare air: Favored against a team with a better record on prime time television. We could analyze this game to death, but it’s actually quite simple: If Josh Allen can limit mistakes the Bills got this. The Steelers are facing emotional pressures from multiple directions (e.g. undefeated season, schedule changes, covid) and it’s clearly mounting. The Steelers dominant defense will also be without several players, including key guys like Joe Haden, and the Steelers slowly fizzling offense is becoming dangerously one-dimensional, and Ben Roethlisberger just isn’t the same guy. Your trip is short, Pittsburgh, but these Bills are home, on a roll, and don’t have nearly the mental baggage the Steelers do at this point in the season. This could be a rematch deep in the playoffs, but it’s Buffalo’s time Sunday.
Baltimore Ravens 7-5 (-2) @ Cleveland Browns 9-3 *(47): Ravens 27-24
Monday, 8:15 PM, First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Weather: Mostly cloudy; low 30s)
Keys: The Ravens have a chance to salvage their season Monday night and lucky for them the Browns come in a bit hobbled on the offensive line. Cleveland has been on a roll, but more like cinnamon roll, because they’ve been filling wins, but you find yourself looking for more. In their four game winning streak of one-possession games they’ve faced marginal-to-poor competition, save the Tennessee Titans Week 13, in which they could have lost the game after holding a 38-7 halftime lead (CLE was outscored 28-3 in the 2nd half). The Ravens, once in the Browns position in the AFC North, have lost three of their last four games after going through covid hell (by NFL standards) and losing several key players during, including Lamar Jackson, not to mention the stress of the schedule changes and the virus in general. The point is the Ravens have been through a lot, have seemed to come out of it, and are hungry to stay alive (no pun intended, sorry), while the Browns are a bit smoke-and-mirrors. This is going to be a great game between the two top (BAL 1st;CLE 2nd) running teams v. the Browns 8th ranked run defense and a 13th-ranked Ravens run defense that’ll be facing a banged-up Cleveland offensive line.
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