Good luck at the window this season and enjoy the 2020 NFL season whiles it lasts, because with the ways things are going it won't be long!
Los
Angeles Chargers 4-9
(+2.5)
@
Las
Vegas
Raiders 7-6
(52):
Raiders
30-27 Chargers 30-27 OT
Thursday, 8:20 PM, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: The Chargers come into Thursday with three of their best offensive talents not named rookie QB Justin Herbert questionable (Keenan Allen; Mike Williams; Austin Ekeler), but lucky for them the Raiders defense lacks depth, with several role players questionable or out. Las Vegas is a long shot for the 7th seed in the AFC, and the Chargers have nothing but pride to play for considering the have no shot at the top draft pick, not that have any use for Trevor Lawrence anyway. Los Angeles possesses the 9th-ranked overall defense, but both teams have awful scoring defenses. The Chargers are also the 9th-ranked total offense, which begs the question, what gives? Attrition, youth and coaching, which you could almost say about the Raiders, although there are always those people that will argue for Chucky’s greatness. Analysis aside, I can’t see the Raiders squandering their last chance to stay alive at home on the short week, because the game is more about pride and the Raiders are the only ones with anything to play for.
I'm getting really good at calling the exact score of games. Unfortunately I'm not so good at picking the winners of said perfect calls. At least I can count on the O/U and getting 33% of my money back on games like these. It's the little things. I suppose you came for the game review: Justin Herbert is probably winning the 2020 RoY after another great performance (314 passing yards; 2 TDs), Derrick Carr was injured and both teams combined for 9 points in OT.
Buffalo
Bills 10-3
(-6)
@ Denver Broncos 5-8
(49.5):
Bills
28-23 Bills 48-19
Saturday, 4:30 PM, Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO (Weather: Sunny & windy; high 40s)
Keys: Saturday football is back, which means we’ve had NFL football every night of the week this season except Friday, which if I’m not mistaken is some sort of congressional law to protect high school football. I’m not kidding, look it up. There are still two weeks to cram a Friday NFL game into the record books. Both of these defenses are pretty lousy, but at least the Bills possess one of the best offenses in the NFL (4th-ranked passing offense, 9th-ranked scoring & 10th-ranked overall). The only thing the Broncos do well is sack the QB (ranked 7th with 36 sacks), but the Bills give up the 10th fewest sacks in the league, so their strength is potentially neutralized. The Broncos will also be without PK Brandon McManus, which seems important. The last time I mocked pride in the NFL (TNF) it won out, but that’s not the case with a Buffalo team trying to beat the Miami Dolphins to the finish line, but the spread is another question, because the Broncos are in spoiler mode and Mile High does weird things to teams.
Hide the kids, hide the wives and hide the tables because the Buffalo Bills are AFC East champions. Hats off, its only been a generation. In all seriousness, I hail from New England and even I'm sick of the New England Patriots. Well, more like Tom Brady. The Bills destroyed Denver at Mile High to seal the division title on the arm and literal heals of their new lord and savior, Josh Allen (359 passing yards; 3 TOT TDs) with some help from the Bills defense (fumble return for a TD) for the second week in a row.
Carolina
Panthers 4-9
(+8.5)
@ Green Bay Packers 10-3
(50.5):
Packers
33-24 Packers 24-16
Saturday, 8:15 PM, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Weather: Snow clearing; low 30s)
Keys: The Packers offense ranks 10th in rushing, 2nd in passing, 2nd overall and 1st in scoring (31.5 ppg). Aaron Rodgers also has the highest QB rating in the NFL and the Packers offensive line gives up the 2nd fewest sacks (14). Green Bay is also trying to secure the top seed in the NFC at home in the freezing cold and snow against a warm-weather team facing a lost season. The Packers mean business and should take care of it pretty easily Saturday night.
Love the 0.5-point losses. I'm sure the worst performance from a healthy Aaron Rodgers -Davante Adams combination all season doesn't sit any better with the fantasy football crowd, either. So the only winners besides the Packers themselves were the people that took the hook and the smallest NFL market in the country.
Tampa
Bay Buccaneers 8-5
(-6)
@ Atlanta Falcons 4-9
(49.5):
Buccaneers
27-20 Buccaneers 31-27
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Ronald Jones III is out Sunday, meaning the Buccaneers will be a little more pass-heavy since I doubt they rely on Justin Fournette (Editor's note: It's Leonard), so lucky for them the Falcons are the 30th-ranked passing defense. The Falcons have only given up 17.8 ppg their last four games, but are also without Julio Jones against one of the better defenses in the NFL (t-4th sacks; 7th overall defense), so if Tompa Bay messes this up it could be lights out on 2020 for the Buccaneers.
Younghoe Koo kicked the go-ahead FG with 8:22 and it was pretty clear the Buccaneers weren't covering, but they did win, because that's what Tom Brady (390 passing yards; 2 TDs) does. Leonard "Justin" Fournette also contributed two TDs in what you might call the exact opposite of what I predicted, but I didn't even get the dude's name right so what do I know?
San
Francisco 49ers 5-8
(-3)
@ Dallas
Cowboys
4-9
(45):
49ers
23-21 Cowboys 41-33
Sunday, 1:00 PM, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: ‘Tis the season when PFM doesn’t spend a whole lot of time analyzing games that don’t have playoff implications. Good god, it just dawned on me the Cowboys are still alive.
The 49ers turned the ball over four times and Dallas outscored the 49ers 17-9, which just so happened to be the same difference in the ballgame, and there you have it. Kudos to the people who picked up Tony Pollard (2 TDs) in anticipation of Ezekiel Elliot's absence. I'm talking to you, Tony. Speaking of absences the 49ers signed Josh Rosen as backup QB after the injury to Nick Mullens. It's been a 2020-type of year for the 49ers in 2020.
Detroit
Lions 5-8
(+11)
@ Tennessee Titans 9-4
*(51.5):
Titans
34-24 Titans 46-25
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN (Weather: Cloudy; low 50s)
Keys: Derrick Henry could rush for 300 yards against the 28th-ranked run defense, which could keep the Lions off the field, but neither of these teams have large enough gaps in their point differentials, nor recent trends or injuries, to justify an 11-point spread.
Ok, so Derrick Henry rushed for half of 300 yards (147), and a TD, but the day belonged to Ryan Tannehill, who threw three TDs and ran for another in a blowout of the Lions. The over was a gimme, so I hope you hopped on of the few Top-5 picks PFM got right this week.
Houston
Texans 4-9
(+7.5)
@ Indianapolis Colts 9-4
(51.5):
Colts
30-23 Colts 27-20
Sunday, 1:00PM, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN (Weather Indoors)
Keys: I feel like every week I’m talking about the Colts in a do-or-die game despite being tied for 1st in the AFC South. They lose the tie-breaker to the Tennessee Titans as of today based on divisional win %, so that about sums up the urgency of this game. Lose and you not only slip a game behind the Titans, you widen the divisional % gap. The Texans can’t run the ball or stop the run, and the Colts are great at stopping everything, so once again Deshaun Watson has his hands full and once again the Colts can’t afford to lose, but the hook plays right into my hands this week.
Oh, was I bitching about 0.5-point hook losses a few reviews ago? It's amazing when it goes the other way. Two Houston TOs spoiled another Deshaun Watson gem (373 passing yards; 3 TDs) and the Colts kept pace with the Tennessee Titans again in what is sure to be one of the better divisional races of 2020.
New
England Patriots 6-7
(+2)
@ Miami Dolphins 8-5
*(41.5):
Dolphins
23-20 Dolphins 22-12
Sunday, 1:00 PM, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL (Weather: Sunny; high 70s)
Keys: The Patriots find themselves in a position to give the Dolphins a taste of their own medicine by spoiling Miami’s playoff run Sunday. The Dolphins are gripping the recently added 7th spot for dear life and if they lose Sunday that will seriously decrease their chances or retaining it. Fortunately for Miami these Patriots don’t have the offense to compete with the Dolphins defense (1st takeaways; 2nd-ranked scoring defense).
Nick Folk (4 FGs) has become New England's best weapon. It's on to 2021 for the New England Patriots.
Chicago
Bears 6-7 (+3)
@ Minnesota Vikings 6-7
(47.5):
Vikings
24-23 Bears 33-27
Sunday, 1:00 PM, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Can you believe these teams are tied for the 8th seed and it’s a must-win for Minnesota because Chicago holds the tie-breaker over them? I had no clue this game was this intriguing.
The Bears never trailed and David Montgomery (146 yards; 2 TDs) showed up Dalvin Cook (132 yards; 1 TD) in his own house as the Vikings playoff hopes faded and the Bears, well, I guess didn't.
Seattle
Seahawks 9-4
(-5)
@ Washington Football
Team 6-7
*(44.5):
Seahawks
27-21 Seahawks 20-15
Sunday, 1:00 PM, FedEx Field, Landover, MD (Weather: 30% wintry mix; low 40s)
Keys: It’s getting ridiculous that these match ups featuring NFC East teams are constantly “games between two first-place teams”, but such is reality again Sunday when the Seahawks travel across the country again, yet are still nearly TD favorites against the 6th-ranked scoring defense. Washington’s offense is that bad and will already be without QB Alex Smith again Sunday. Don’t worry, he’s alive. Seattle is in a worthy divisional race and can’t afford to slip against a banged up Washington defense that doesn’t have the offensive power to hang with Seattle in the first place.
The Seahawks led 20-3 with most of the 3rd quarter left, which pointed to a blowout, but the Football Team defense clamped down and the embattled offense scored 12-unanswered points to make it a game and retain their perch atop the NFC East, while the Seahawks clinched a playoff spot.
Jacksonville
Jaguars 1-12
(+13)
@ Baltimore Ravens 8-5
(47.5):
Ravens
31-17 Ravens 40-14
Sunday, 1:00 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD (Weather: 30% wintry mix; low 40s)
Keys: Covid almost killed the Ravens, but has somehow revitalized them, as they have now won two straight games after losing four of their previous five (to then-undefeated PIT twice, AFC South-leading TEN in OT and a formerly decent NE team on the road). If the season ended today Baltimore would lose the 7th seed to the Miami Dolphins by mere % points, so the urgency is there. So is the terrible opponent, which, in this case, has no chance of being overlooked.
Lamar Jackson (4 TOT TDs; 1 INT) did Lamar Jackson things and the Jaguars took one step closer to having two QBs that could moonlight as the Bee Gees.
New
York Jets 0-13
*(+18.5)
@ Los Angeles Rams 9-4
(43.5):
Rams
30-13 Jets 23-20
Sunday, 4:05 PM, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: Let’s just leave it at 18.5 points is a ridiculous number for a Rams team that averages 25 ppg and a Jets team that brought three mediocre teams to the brink in three of the past five games. I’m being slightly facetious, but all that top defense (LAR) v. worst offense (NYJ) stuff doesn’t really warrant a 19-point win, does it? It’s happened to the Jets five time already and New York has come within a point of it happening seven times in 13 games. And the Jets have a -16.1 ppg point differential. Hmmmm...interesting. I don’t care, the Rams don’t score enough.
The Rams were actually getting smoked into the 4th quarter 23-10 before 10-unanswered points made it look like an upset battle between a division leader and a team that just told Sam Darnold exactly what they think of him. I told you 18.5 points was ridiculous, but I never expected the Jets to actually win.
Philadelphia
Eagles 4-8-1
(+6)
@ Arizona Cardinals 7-6
(49.5):
Cardinals
30-23 Cardinals 33-26
Sunday, 4:05 PM, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: How many calls has Lincoln Riley received this week about his two former stand out QBs facing each other in a game no expected to see outside of a Tostitos Bowl? Jalen Hurts gets the nod again Sunday and for the first time that I can remember we’ll see an NFL game featuring two QBs that probably weigh less combined than Ben Roethlisberger does. The Cardinals are gripping on to that 7th seed tight with the underachieving Minnesota Vikings and the overachieving Chicago Bears looming, but the Eagles have nothing besides a pass rush and a spark of unknown duration caused by Hurts, hence the spread.
It certainly seemed like a college bowl game with Kyler Murray (435 total yards; 4 TOT TDs; 2 TOs) and Jalen Hurts (401 total yards; 4 TOT TDs) putting up Heisman-like numbers in a game that went down to the wire, despite the Cardinals never trailing. Murray threw for a career-high 406 yards, including 20 on the go-ahead TD to DeAndre Hopkins (8 REC; 169 REC yards) midway through the 4th quarter.
Kansas
City Chiefs 12-1
*(-3)
@ New Orleans Saints 10-3
(51.5):
Chiefs
27-21 Chiefs 31-27
Sunday, 4:25 PM, Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA (Weather: Indoors)
Keys: If this potential Super Bowl preview were last year I’d be pumped, but even the vaunted Saints defense can’t slow the Chiefs enough for the Drew Brees-less Saints to keep pace (Editor's note: Drew Brees is, in fact, playing). The Chiefs know what time it is after the Pittsburgh Steelers fell off the last two weeks, and Taysom Hill can’t score enough points in general to win this game, let alone against this Chiefs defense. Pay no attention to the Chiefs recent string of one-possession wins since their last blowout Week 8 (NYJ), Kansas City is on a mission and New Orleans is the perfect team to prove something against as they prepare for a deep playoff run.
Drew Brees looked awful (15-34) despite throwing three TD passes, while Patrick Mahomes (254 passing yards; 3 TDs) looked like a circus clown with his bag of tricks. The Saints stole the lead once, but otherwise chased the likely Super Bowl LV champions, because the Saints aren't stopping them.
Cleveland
Browns 9-4
(-6)
@ New York Giants 5-8
(49.5):
Browns
26-23 Browns 20-6
Sunday, 8:20 PM, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (Weather: 50% snow; high 30s)
Keys: The Browns are just the team to beat the Giants back into submission mode, and they can’t afford to lose in a suddenly re-crowded AFC North, but six points seems steep for this Giants defense (7th against the run).
Nothing to report here besides the Giants inept offense being unable to score a measly 14 total points to push the game. Ugh.
Pittsburgh Steelers 11-2 (-12.5) v. Cincinnati Bengals 2-10-1 (40.5): 27-16 Bengals 27-17
Monday, 8:15 PM, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Weather: Slight wind; low 30s)
Keys: If Joe Burrow was playing this week I’d be taking the Bengals in an upset, but alas, he’s not. All is not well in Pittsburgh, but before you think the Bengals are the best team to get back on track against, think again. What does that prove? In other news, these two teams score and allow nearly the inverse of each other, which means the Steelers might have trouble winning by 13 points or more.
Apparently the Bengals didn't even need Joe Burrow. What a week that would've been to call two exact bookend scores on TNF and MNF, but for the wrong winner. Alas, I was off by a point. The Steelers are in trouble, because they have no run game, Ben Roethlisberger is old and tired and noodle-armed, JuJu Smith-Schuster's soul was snatched Monday night, and the defense can't carry them through the playoffs, especially against the likes of the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs.
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